Scheduling ideas
- Thread starter VT4700
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it's a new team. we've only seen 4 guys on our entire roster play meaningful minutes. and we haven't seen the OOC opponents play at all. you may see 4. I may see 10. there's no way to accurately predict.
I get it. you don't like Mooney. you've made that clear in every post.
Agreed there’s no accurate way to predict but the points you added favor my argument for 4 wins more than someone who thinks 10 or so. Young inexperienced team, with a tough non con schedule, gonna be interesting to watch for sure
it's a solid schedule, but not loaded or anything. not sure it's really that tough.
and our potential top 8 players are definitely not young, and most have a lot of games under their belt.
we'll see. maybe we are the 15th A10 team. but I'm feeling optimistic today.
If we're anywhere close to last year's quality, there are five clear *should* wins on there...VMI, W&M, Lafayette, Queens, and Siena. I might even throw in Buffalo as a sixth. Could UNI be a seventh? I don't know if they're expected to improve this season, but they've had a few rough seasons recently and we've owned them in this series.
But as we all know (W&M!), nothing is guaranteed.
Beyond that, it's obviously tougher to find the wins. I would think Florida State will be improved over their awful performance last season. BC is the type of ACC team we can beat when we're decent, but are we good enough this year? UNLV, Wichita, Charlotte are likely to all be in that 70–120 range where we could certainly be with a decent season. Colorado and Florida likely a notch or two better than those.
I can easily see 6–7 or even 7–6. 8 wins certainly not out of the question if we can avoid stumbles against the weaker opponents. I'd wager 4 wins is too low and 10 is too high, but we'll see!
But as we all know (W&M!), nothing is guaranteed.
Beyond that, it's obviously tougher to find the wins. I would think Florida State will be improved over their awful performance last season. BC is the type of ACC team we can beat when we're decent, but are we good enough this year? UNLV, Wichita, Charlotte are likely to all be in that 70–120 range where we could certainly be with a decent season. Colorado and Florida likely a notch or two better than those.
I can easily see 6–7 or even 7–6. 8 wins certainly not out of the question if we can avoid stumbles against the weaker opponents. I'd wager 4 wins is too low and 10 is too high, but we'll see!
8legs1dream
Team Manager
Harris 122 games graduate student
King 111 games graduate student
Quinn 107 games senior
Bigelow 98 games graduate student
Hunt 73 games senior
Roche 63 games junior
Bailey 45 games senior
I have no idea how we'll do this year, but we are not young and inexperienced. None of these guys have excelled at the A10 level yet. If a couple step up this year (like King, Noyes, Quinn), things will be looking good. Otherwise, not so much.
Regardless of how well we play, I think we will be much more fun to watch this year without a starting lineup that includes Nelson, Gustavson, and Grace. One of Gus or Grace would have been fine, but all three together did not make for a good or exciting offense.
Young wasn’t the right word to use, but we have a lot of uncertainties and we have a coach who is awful at making adjustments mid game and is notorious for blowing leads at the end of games. That’s why I’m expecting 4 OOC wins
I think this is a very solid slate and while I generally point to VCU as doing everything better than us, I will say comparing OOC schedules, we definitely bested them this year.
I don't think that's necessarily true. They have some stinkers, but so do we. Obviously their Orlando MTE is terrific as they always manage to do. Memphis at home is of course very good as well, so that should be four excellent games for them, and Temple could be another solid one.
Pretty amazing that they have zero road games...just the Orlando event neutral with the other 10 at home.
It will be interesting to see where NET and Kenpom put the two OOC Schedules at the end of December.
I think the saying goes "great minds think alike."
Im probably low balling it but I don't feel any reinsurance from our coach so Im not expecting much these new two years until Mooney's contract is up so we can part ways with him. #newagenda
Well the zero road games is a pretty big issue in my opinion. I mean who do they think they are, Duke. And then outside Memphis (good game) and Temple (could be good) at home this is their other 8 games.
McNeese
Samford
Radford
Seattle
Norfolk St.
Alcorn St.
Maryland Eastern Shore
Gardner Webb
I don't think you could pick 8 worse teams to play and is a bunch of Quad 4 games all at home. You had better not lose any of them. If they are fortunate enough to be considered for an at large, the fact that they played zero road games is going to be talking points A,B,C & D of why they shouldn't get a bid.
He's probably not licensed to be a reinsurer.
Samford and Seattle would have been Q3 for VCU at home with last year's NET. The others Q4, yes.
This season's schedule quads going off last year's NETs:
VCU: 1 Q1, 0 Q2, 3 Q3, 6 Q4 plus three out of 5x Q1, 1x Q2, 1x Q3
UR: 0 Q1, 2 Q2, 3 Q3, 6 Q4 plus two out of 2x Q2, 1x Q4
The known games are pretty close to a wash, but their MTE blows ours out of the water.
So, 6 Q4s for both us and VCU.....and probably at least that many for most, if not every team in the A-10. Just like I said a few times on this thread.....if teams are playing this many Q4s with a 13 game OOC schedule, why can't they get rid of 2 of the Q4s and play an 11 game OOC schedule with 20 IC games? Several teams would benefit from getting to play a top A-10 team, or maybe even two top teams, twice. As a result, the A-10 would have more overall Q1 and Q2 games.
I see no negative with a 20 game IC schedule. If VCU replaces Gardner Webb and Maryland Eastern Shore with 2 more IC games, how could that ever be worse, regardless of which 2 IC teams they get? Same for us with VMI and Queens. I kept hearing, "but it hurts flexibility", but I don't see how. When teams are playing 6+ Q4s every year, how does it hurt flexibility? Every single A-10 team could still play as many quality OOC games as they want with an 11 game OOC schedule.
I see no negative with a 20 game IC schedule. If VCU replaces Gardner Webb and Maryland Eastern Shore with 2 more IC games, how could that ever be worse, regardless of which 2 IC teams they get? Same for us with VMI and Queens. I kept hearing, "but it hurts flexibility", but I don't see how. When teams are playing 6+ Q4s every year, how does it hurt flexibility? Every single A-10 team could still play as many quality OOC games as they want with an 11 game OOC schedule.
If it were this easy, I am sure the ADs would vote for it and the league would make a change. I personally like the idea of more conference games just because I would rather see teams that I am familiar with as opposed to the random Q4 teams that always make their way into the schedule. However, the chances of making the strength if schedule better/worse are probably even and of course depend on which conference tier the particular team is in.
When comparing schedules between the Broad St boys and the Spiders, I think UR did a better job with the MAJOR exception being the MTE event. The Spiders HAVE TO get into better events. That is the area that needs the attention in my opinion.
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I meant to type Q4 (Quad 4) but had a disconnect between the brain and the keyboard.
Ah that makes sense. I thought you were including the collapse of the PAC12.
I think better to go by projected ratings like a Kenpom or Torviik over last year's NET tho I get why previous year NET is used & it may be pretty similar anyway.
Seattle is an underrated solid game for VCU.
On our side UNI will be a lot better. We've done well in that series but probably due for a loss and thought I read they r only team in country returning everyone.
I agree w 97 that if VCU is on bubble the 0 true road ooc game will likely come up. But there is something to be said for having a marquee home game. We have none. VCU has two name teams, a big one in Memphis this year. plus temple has more name cache than Charlotte who is our best OOC home game, tho Temple has been down (not sure what they did in portal) so won't be a surprise if Charotte is the better game by the NET numbers.
I've been harping on our MTE's for a long time. Yes, that is biggest difference. We just can't get in the better 3 game single site tourneys. & VCU is in Charleston next year another good one. Then might be in Maui in 2025 considering Odom's father is the tournament Chairman.
Bit of a side note, but I have a hard time putting any faith in Torvik's preseason ratings when he has Duquesne and Loyola at #1 and #2 in the A-10. Maybe it happens, but I haven't seen anything in the offseason that indicates it's likely.
Certainly using last year's NET is just an approximation...some will be better, some will be worse. I suspect it largely averages out, but I haven't studied it.
Certainly using last year's NET is just an approximation...some will be better, some will be worse. I suspect it largely averages out, but I haven't studied it.
Agree Loyola makes sense only if you assume last year’s defensive performance was a blip. It seems to be giving credit for their F4 and S16 runs to Valentine because he was an assistant or because at this point the program is so good regardless of the coach, neither of which track.
Duq seems high but they added some good offensive players and bring a lot back so it looks good on paper. Still likewise, I don’t trust it because if history holds some of the roster may evaporate/end up hating Dambrot and leaving.
Duq seems high but they added some good offensive players and bring a lot back so it looks good on paper. Still likewise, I don’t trust it because if history holds some of the roster may evaporate/end up hating Dambrot and leaving.
Nice analysis SF. To me the difference is we play away games at Wichita State, at Northern Iowa, and @ Boston College. All of those have potential to be Quad 2 games, depending on how things shake out. And again, zero away games is to like an own goal, you are giving every talking head and the committee a huge talking point against you for no reason.
Yes, VCU's MTE is better than ours and yes I agree wholeheartedly we need to do better. But looking at VCU's MTE (and we don't know who they play yet, but they have Butler (terrible last year), Penn State (really good last year but turned over entire team), Boise and Fla Atlantic both were awesome last year but are not marqee programs and so can they repeat that? I'd be willing to put a hefty wager that VCU is gonna be matched up with Penn State just because of the whole Rhoades and Ace game. This is ESPN they will match those two up probably in the first round and Penn State is picked to finish next to last in the Big 10. Texas A&M, Tech, Iowa State are all really solid though.
Our MTE is not as great (but we are the weakest link of the 4 teams in that field) but then we also then added a neutral court game with Florida so that even things out a bit and then when you add in all of our away games, I think that gives us a leg up. I've got a litany of complaints about Mooney and the program but I think they have done a solid job of putting together a competitive OOC these past couple of years. Of course, you can put together on paper a nice OOC, but it has always been the execution, that has been our achilles heal.
I find those 2 extremely suspect as well.
But Torvik is pretty reputable overall. U can find a historical record of his preseason rankings so I guess someone would have to analyze. His comes out so early think it changes the most. Granted there's not a lot of those preseason ratings system...kenpom, Torvik, Evan Miya, Sagarin?....they should still have more value than previous year NET.
Last year NET represents what has already occurred. It still has value bc, while there r exceptions, teams that r historically good stay good & teams that r historically bad stay bad. Or even teams that r hisorically average. But a system that factors in historical performance combined with roster losses/additions, experience, injuries, schedule, coaching changes, etc. should in theory be better. Even tho they'll still have wild misses just like polls. & a 1-2 Duq/Loyola feels like one of those misses.
His preseason ratings are also driven largely by his player stat predictions, and remember last year when he had Dread as a major contributor for us and Nelson as our 10th man?
I don't know if that was an anomaly or if nonsensical stuff like this is widespread in his projections, but while I like his analysis of what has actually happened and even in-season projections, I've seen enough questionable stuff from his preseason projections that I just don't trust them for anything.
I know it's hard to be an expert on offseason changes for all 350+ teams, but still, there was absolutely nothing indicating Dread would see anything more than mop-up time.
I don't know if that was an anomaly or if nonsensical stuff like this is widespread in his projections, but while I like his analysis of what has actually happened and even in-season projections, I've seen enough questionable stuff from his preseason projections that I just don't trust them for anything.
I know it's hard to be an expert on offseason changes for all 350+ teams, but still, there was absolutely nothing indicating Dread would see anything more than mop-up time.
Here's the way this works: at least half of those garbage teams VCU is playing will end up winning their conferences out of the blue. They will beat Memphis at home, lose those MTE games, just barely, and those teams will all end up as top-25 teams. Playing no road games will not hurt them at all. We've seen this movie many times before.
8legs1dream
Team Manager
plenty of teams stay in the conversation on name alone and they are one of them unfortunately.
I do remember, easy for us to recognize that mistake, & idk why he had Dread over Nelson maybe it was recruit ratings. he certainly wasn't reading our board! regardless I believe it made a negligible difference in his ratings for Richmond, & other teams in similar situations, bc both players were unknowns it didn't really matter which one was going to get the stats for his system. if u swapped Nelson for Dread his preseason ranking would have been virtually the same I expect.
Player stat predictions for more known quantities will play a much larger role. His predictive player stats for unknown quantities are the biggest data gap. Some of the stuff on site is a little too "egghead" for me but I've read some of his layman tweets and he's admitted the offseason roster analysis is difficult.
But I wouldn't dismiss it at large based on those examples. imo it's kinda like someone saying Goose or another player isn't a good defender bc he gets beat or makes a dumb foul.
It's possible Torvik preseason ratings r garbage, again someone would have to analyze his performance like ppl have done w the bracketlogists, but my feeling is he probably does pretty well. it *should* still hold more value than a previous year's NET even as we acknowledge it will come with some bad errors.
What I can't seem to remember is...how different are his preseason predictions in October vs July?
His model in July always seems to heavily weigh previous minutes of players.
Okay, I've also done the analysis using Torvik's preseason rankings:
VCU: 0 Q1, 1 Q2, 3 Q3, 6 Q4 plus three out of 3x Q1, 3x Q2, 1x Q3
UR: 1 Q1, 2 Q2, 1 Q3, 6 Q4 plus two out of 1x Q1, 1x Q2, 1x Q3
That version does come out a bit better for us. Still a bunch of anchors for both UR and VCU, but the quality games shift up some for us and down for them.
VCU: 0 Q1, 1 Q2, 3 Q3, 6 Q4 plus three out of 3x Q1, 3x Q2, 1x Q3
UR: 1 Q1, 2 Q2, 1 Q3, 6 Q4 plus two out of 1x Q1, 1x Q2, 1x Q3
That version does come out a bit better for us. Still a bunch of anchors for both UR and VCU, but the quality games shift up some for us and down for them.
VCU opens with Iowa State in their MTE...#25 last year NET and #47 preseason Torvik. Q1 by both measures.
Then they get either #53/#75 Virginia Tech, which would be a Q2, or #34/#65 Boise State, which would be a Q1 under NET or Q2 under Torvik.
And then of course one more game.
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Then they get either #53/#75 Virginia Tech, which would be a Q2, or #34/#65 Boise State, which would be a Q1 under NET or Q2 under Torvik.
And then of course one more game.
