Schedule is out - Prediction time....

[urmite]

Not so sure about that. If we played there schedule we would not have close to 10 wins. Do u realize we just lost to Radford? Do u think VCU would have lost to Radford?

I think they would have won because their performance always seems consistent.

But they have gone 1-3 against teams better than Redford, 8-0 Vs teams worse.
We have gone 1-1 vs teams better, 9-0 vs teams worse.

I just hope that wasn’t our average performance because that may give a record of 18-13.
While if the Wisconsin game was our average we could be 27-4 (but doubt it).

 

[fatherspider]

I think they would have won because their performance always seems consistent.

But they have gone 1-3 against teams better than Redford, 8-0 Vs teams worse.
We have gone 1-1 vs teams better, 9-0 vs teams worse.

I just hope that wasn’t our average performance because that may give a record of 18-13.
While if the Wisconsin game was our average we could be 27-4 (but doubt it).

I dont think the radford performance will be our average but all it takes is a few more like it against poor teams to turn a great season into a below average one. Look what this one game did to our ranking?

 

[GKiller]

Is 6-18 really being defended? 6-18. Have some pride.

 

[urmite]

Bart Torvik has a couple interesting predictions...

Wisconsin - 15-16, 9-11 - NET 62 Quad 2
Radford - 18-10, 15-3 - NET 99 Quad 2

Neutral Games 51-100 are Quad 2
(and I didn't include Non D1 games)

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Numbers through Game 12:

We have been favored in 10 of 12 games, and our record is 10-2.
We are 9-1 straight up as a favorite, and 1-1 as an underdog.
We are 6-6 against the spread. 5-5 as a favorite, and 1-1 as an underdog.

Our Quad Records are 1-1 in Q1, 5-1 in Q3, and 4-0 in Q4.
ATS, our Quad Records are 1-1 in Q1, 1-5 in Q3, and 4-0 in Q4.
We've been good at burying our terrible opponents. We've had 2 games against non-terrible opponents where we've exceeded expectations: Wisconsin and Boston College.

More surprising is our performance against the total. Only three of our games have gone over the total, and two of those were overtime games (though both of those were over the total in regulation). We failed to cover the spread in all three games that went over the total. Our defense would seem to be exceeding expectations. With the addition of Francis and return of Sherod, I would have expected more scoring (more Overs). In our first 10 games, we were 6-1 when we stayed under the total, so keeping the defense up appeared to be a key to our success. However, in the last two games we've seen our scoring drop dramatically, going under the total and failing to cover. This may be cause for concern.

 

[fatherspider]

Bart Torvik has a couple interesting predictions...

Wisconsin - 15-16, 9-11 - NET 62 Quad 2
Radford - 18-10, 15-3 - NET 99 Quad 2

Neutral Games 51-100 are Quad 2
(and I didn't include Non D1 games)

Who the hell is Bart Torvik?

 

[urmite]

Who the hell is Bart Torvik?

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Richmond&year=2020

 

[coach fezz]

I dont think the radford performance will be our average but all it takes is a few more like it against poor teams to turn a great season into a below average one. Look what this one game did to our ranking?

It is sad for me to say this but this is what i am to be expecting. That is no good
I am a bad fan now i think

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Bart Torvik has a couple interesting predictions...

Wisconsin - 15-16, 9-11 - NET 62 Quad 2
Radford - 18-10, 15-3 - NET 99 Quad 2

Neutral Games 51-100 are Quad 2
(and I didn't include Non D1 games)

Those are interesting. I hope he's wrong about Wisconsin - would like to see that win stay Quad 1.
Radford is dubious. How are they going to climb with no opportunities for quality wins left on their schedule?

 

[VT4700]

Those are interesting. I hope he's wrong about Wisconsin - would like to see that win stay Quad 1.
Radford is dubious. How are they going to climb with no opportunities for quality wins left on their schedule?

By winning 15 conference games. They don't have to be quality wins for them to move up. That being said, all a lot of these guys do is just guess records and see where the computer puts them. Any of us could do the same, so I put zero stock in some of these predictions. We don't need a computer guy to tell us that a losing record for Wisconsin would be bad for us and Radford winning 18 games would be good for us.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

By winning 15 conference games. They don't have to be quality wins for them to move up.

Hmm. Maybe. They ended their OOC last season at #86 and had wins at Texas and Notre Dame. They started their Big South season 7-0 and steadily dropped, and were outside the Top 100 before their first conference loss. They went 12-4 in conference last year (admittedly not 15-3) but ended the regular season in the 130s, and after losing in the Big South Championship finished #144. The Big South rates worse this year than last.

Even with a stellar Big South season, they are more likely to fall than rise.

 

[SpiderK]

18-13

 

[whampas]

17-14

 

[GKiller]

 

[whampas]

Still searching.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Hmm. Maybe. They ended their OOC last season at #86 and had wins at Texas and Notre Dame. They started their Big South season 7-0 and steadily dropped, and were outside the Top 100 before their first conference loss. They went 12-4 in conference last year (admittedly not 15-3) but ended the regular season in the 130s, and after losing in the Big South Championship finished #144. The Big South rates worse this year than last.

Even with a stellar Big South season, they are more likely to fall than rise.

They won (against a non-D1 team) yesterday 90-45, and dropped 12 places.

 

[urmite]

They won (against a non-D1 team) yesterday 90-45, and dropped 12 places.

In case, I'm back from my holiday...

Curious since I thought NET was suppose to ignore Non D1 games. I wonder if they would have dropped the same if they didn't play.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

In case, I'm back from my holiday...

Curious since I thought NET was suppose to ignore Non D1 games. I wonder if they would have dropped the same if they didn't play.

You are correct. This means 12 teams net (no pun intended) climbed past Radford yesterday.

 

[VT4700]

Looks like not a lot of people predicted 10-3 or better for us. Yet, seems like most of the board is extremely negative today. That does not make sense. We are 10-3 with a quad one win and two quad one losses. The really good news today is the A-10 is a lot better this year and we will have some chances to pick up some quad one and quad two wins in conference play. We are in a lot better shape than some of you think. We just need to do well in conference play and beat some of the top teams.

And, the 2011 team lost to Iona, ODU, Bucknell, and GT OOC. Yet, we lose at Bama and somehow we stink and our season is over now? Strange.

 

[spider23]

Problem is the way we limped home in OOC. I don't think a lot of faith in Mooney to right the ship. Concerning that Sherod may have hit a bit of a wall, which is understandable coming back from the ACL, but we need that guy that can pump in 20 points. New season starts Saturday, so that is good and should give the guys a chance to reboot. Need this first one, I'm sure SJU is preaching same thing: New Season!

 

[MrTbone]

I’m still pleased with 10-3. Losses to auburn and Alabama should be fine, Radford of course is a stinker.

I think the negativity is going to exist whether below The surface or above until such time as the team makes the tournament. It’s really that binary.

 

[urmite]

Problem is the way we limped home in OOC. I don't think a lot of faith in Mooney to right the ship. Concerning that Sherod may have hit a bit of a wall, which is understandable coming back from the ACL, but we need that guy that can pump in 20 points. New season starts Saturday, so that is good and should give the guys a chance to reboot. Need this first one, I'm sure SJU is preaching same thing: New Season!

Losing at home to SJU would truly be disasterous. I am wondering if the next game at URI may end up being for the third A-10 bid?
We need
Sherod to be better than his 5 of 23 from three the last 4 games.
Goose to get back after two games off.
And Cayo to return to the form he was before the game he missed.

 

[spider23]

I’m still pleased with 10-3. Losses to auburn and Alabama should be fine, Radford of course is a stinker.

I think the negativity is going to exist whether below The surface or above until such time as the team makes the tournament. It’s really that binary.

Correct, considering 3202 days since our last tournament game - that is the evaluation tool now - make the tournament. But who's counting.

 

[spider23]

Mite, I also see that URI game as a huge contest. Many prognosticators had us very even. Great PG match up. I have seen them on tv a couple times and their length and athleticism does concern me a little. Even without Tate they have some guys that can go and could cause us some issues with getting shots off on offense.

 

[Spiders4ever]

Who the hell is Bart Torvik?

Porn Guy.

 

[urmite]

Mite, I also see that URI game as a huge contest. Many prognosticators had us very even. Great PG match up. I have seen them on tv a couple times and their length and athleticism does concern me a little. Even without Tate they have some guys that can go and could cause us some issues with getting shots off on offense.

I expect to be 15 point favorite vs SJU, but 4 point dog to URI.
Interesting that those two seem to be the fastest paced teams in the A-10. A little different than past URI teams and something we haven't handled well recently.
A 6-0 start to the A-10 would be huge, but even getting past 3-3 will be difficult.

Will we play better than we are against Davidson, & Duquesne? and worse than we are against GMU, SLU, & URI?
That seems to be our history.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Bolded wins - gives us 10-3, 10-8. 20-11 headed to Brooklyn...

Truth is we could be 9-1 with loss to Wisconsin and win over New Mexico, and not really be that good. But would mean significantly improved.

Congrats urmite, you pretty much nailed it back in September. Just flip the Barclay's games and ODU/Radford and it would have been perfect!

 

[GKiller]

Still searching.

For our NET ranking which has fallen down under.

 

[coach fezz]

ONCE AGAIN LOOK BAD LOOK WORSE SCRAMBLE SCRAMBLE HOPE END OF YEAR IS OUR FRIEND . I LIKED TIE AND SHIRT

 

[SouthJerseySpiderFan]

Looks like not a lot of people predicted 10-3 or better for us. Yet, seems like most of the board is extremely negative today.

And, the 2011 team lost to Iona, ODU, Bucknell, and GT OOC. Yet, we lose at Bama and somehow we stink and our season is over now? Strange.

Yes the 2011 team lost to Kenpom # 66 Iona away, #48 ODU away, #96 Bucknell home, and #100 GT neutral.

You forgot to mention the wins comparison. This year's Mooney's team beat #36 Wiscy neutral. And the 2011 team beat #9 Purdue neutral, #53 VCU home, and #59 SHall away.

Also Kenpom has this Mooney's team OOC schedule at -0.32 #188 while 2011 came in at +1.00 #124.

4700, sorry to dampen your narrative but I know it needed some bi-partisism. And honestly I'm pleasantly surprised and happy with the 10-3 record. Though I believe the weaker than we were told OOC schedule leaves a minuscule margin for error in A10 play.

 

[ur2K]

And the 2010-11 team was coming off a NCAA year , not coming off back-to-back 20 loss seasons in the same coach’s 15th year who hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since the 2010-11 season, but it’s totally the same.

 

[GKiller]

We've already been told 6-18 Mooney does not have to beat VCU so that's an 0-2 A10 hole right there. Because their recruit pool is larger than ours. Of course a TJ or Golden is out of VCU's reach too & would never go there but that doesn't count.

That defeatist attitude was one of the worst things I've read on here.

 

[97spiderfan]

Correct, considering 3202 days since our last tournament game - that is the evaluation tool now - make the tournament. But who's counting.

Over 3200 days since our last tournament game. Wow. Just let that sink in for a minute.

 

[spider23]

Over 3200 days since our last tournament game. Wow. Just let that sink in for a minute.

3203 to be exact. I know this number can only go up until the tournament starts this year, but it seems to be getting heavier with every game that passes. The weight is starting to crush the air out of the room.

 

[urmite]

Over 3200 days since our last tournament game. Wow. Just let that sink in for a minute.

Hopefully we won't break the record set by another team in Richmond...
3/23/1985...4018 days...then 3/23/1996...2917 days...then 3/18/2004
3 first round games in 6935 days...