That is what I was going to say, except without looking anything up...
Playing #120 & #180 is considered tougher than playing #40 & #280. Whether it should be is a different debate.
OOC 2018-2019
- Thread starter FrontRoyalSpider
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Playing #120 & #180 is considered tougher than playing #40 & #280. Whether it should be is a different debate.
I think there may be different definitions of strength of schedule being used here. Based on your comment, it seems like you are defining SOS by the number of NCAA teams on the schedule. This is a reasonable definition, but it is not the definition used by computer models, or what the committee expects SOS to represent (this is covered by record vs. top 25, 50, 100, etc). The way computer models define SOS is essentially “how many games would an average basketball team expect to win with this schedule.” The committee uses SOS to basically determine how impressive the overall win-loss record of a team is.
For example, consider the following two schedules. Schedule A has games against the top 4 teams in the country and the 8 worst teams in the country. Schedule B has 12 games against perfectly average basketball teams, none of which make the tournament. If a perfectly average team plays schedule A, they would be expected to win 8 games, but if they played schedule B they would be expected to only win 6. Since the expected number of wins is higher for schedule A it is given a worse SOS. This definition of SOS may not align with your definition, but it is still a reasonable one. A record of 8-4 is actually more difficult to achieve for schedule B than A, even though schedule A has games against the top 4 teams in the country and schedule B doesn't have a single tournament team!
Schedule A and B are extreme cases, but they demonstrate why our SOS was higher than VCU’s. Their schedule was more like schedule A, while ours was more similar to B. An average team would be expected to win more games against VCU’s schedule than ours. If people are interested I can run the numbers for the expected wins for VCU’s and Richmond’s schedules for a more direct comparison.
Note: 9+ wins with schedule A is more impressive than 9+ wins with schedule B, and this is a flaw with the computer model definition of SOS. However, it is impossible to reduce a schedule to a single number and simultaneously capture and explain all the nuances of the schedule. Every SOS metric will have flaws.
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Would a schedule where an average team has 48% chance of winning in all 12 games be considered stronger than one where it was a 2% chance of winning in 11 games and 98% in the 12th?
So does anyone post OOC strength by number of games against each of the new tiers?
So does anyone post OOC strength by number of games against each of the new tiers?
Oh, I get why the computers rank them the way they do. And it's perfectly valid. But to my mind, a bad team is just a bad team. I don't care that VMI's RPI is so much worse than JMU's....they're both bad opponents who both teams should beat. But the computers care very much about their relative RPIs.
To me, it's much more impressive to schedule top teams from power conferences. It's harder to predict which crappy team is going to be even more crappy than some other one when you're scheduling your gimmes.
This is why I like the quadrant system......for home games, 161+ RPI teams are all the same - Quadrant 4. I'd bet Team B's schedule, when looked at in the Quadrant system the selection committee uses, is more impressive than Team A's.
The expected wins would be 5.76 for the "48% schedule" and 1.2 for the top heavy schedule, so the top heavy schedule would be considered much, much, much tougher.
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Well here are the relative records according to the Quadrant System - it's not an SOS ranking, per se...but it is illustrative.
Team A (UR):
Quadrant 1: 0-1
Quadrant 2: 0-4
Quadrant 3: 1-3
Quadrant 4: 1-2
Team B (VCU):
Quad 1: 0-3
Quad 2: 0-2
Quad 3: 2-0
Quad 4: 6-0
It pretty much confirms what fan2011 was saying. Team B is more top-and-bottom heavy, whereas Team A is middle-heavy. That would be a tougher schedule per the computers.
I was surprised to see VCU had a "perfect" distribution for a mediocre team - winless in Quads 1&2 and undefeated in Quads 3-4. Basically, no upsets OOC for an "average" team. They performed exactly as expected.
Finally, it seems UR's "solution" to our oh-so-tough schedule is to schedule more Quad 4 teams. Quad 4 games don't help you for postseason consideration, but they definitely hurt you when you lose them.
Firstly, let me wish everyone a happy 4th. Stay cool out there.
Now to business just to put the above hypotheses to the strict eye test. With regard to UR and VCU schedules. I leave it to you to decide which was tougher without computers, as the conference schedule SOS is about the same for either team.
UR went 2-10 with their tough games being Bucknell, Jax St, UAB, LA, VT, Cincinatti. 2 NCAA 3 NIT 1 CBI. Common opponents with VCU Bucknell and FODU for a record of 0-2.
VCU went 8-5 with their tough games being Virginia (1 seed NCAA), Michigan (NCAA championship game), Seton Hall (NCAA), Bucknell (NCAA), TX (NCAA), Marquette (NIT Quarterfinal). Common opponents Bucknell and FODU for record of 2-0.
Why the eye test? Because any one of us can crunch some numbers and use them to support that which is not actually a valid and accurate conclusion (see the 2016 presidential election...)
Crunch numbers please and I look forward to your results and comments. Now having said the above, I think we can all agree that we'd like to forget the 2017 pre-season as it pretty much sucked for all.
Yes to win is the best eye test . To win you must execute. I think best example of team execution with game pressure is out of bounds play.
Last year we were poor execution . throw out to half court is slop . Yes slop
Last year we were poor execution . throw out to half court is slop . Yes slop
The computers are saying that Richmond would have won more games with VCU's schedule last year than their own, and I am inclined to agree by the eye test. Not sure why this concept is so difficult to grasp, it isn't an outrageous proposition. Certainly the schedule with which you win more games can be called an easier schedule?
VCU did have a much easier in-conference schedule which with an unbalanced scheduling is going to happen to half of the A10. There is no comparison if we use pre-season opponents and all the numbers they generate. There's no reason to even run them. I think we can all agree that the outcome of those numbers is a foregone conclusion.
DaMan, simply stated, the Spiders beat vdu twice this past season, home and way. Believe the Spiders were a better team.
Can't argue with the two wins Ulla. That's painfully burned into the skin. Was just joining a legitimate debate over the schedule thing is all. Now as to who was a better team I'd say both pretty much disappointed and trying to figure out who was better out of two very ordinary teams is a waste of time.
DaMan, duh. Spiders beat vdu twice. Ergo, Spiders were the better team. No discussion. Deal with it.
I'm here trying to have a legit debate and there's one person trying to bait me into getting upset which I already have been after watching my guys take the schnyde against the hated UR. Oh and I got over it and am still a happy person. I certainly am not here to create angst. I come in peace.
Upset is not what I plan on getting on one of the coolest nights of the year. I have 72 mortar shells begging for the sky and 45 minutes before I give them their wish. Cheers!
Rather than start a new thread I was wondering if anyone knows when Summer B term starts and therefore when our new recruits will be starting to practice with the team....
I generally like to drop by the RC a time or two during summer-B term in order to see the new guys and form first impressions. When do our new guys start practicing with the returning players?
I generally like to drop by the RC a time or two during summer-B term in order to see the new guys and form first impressions. When do our new guys start practicing with the returning players?
I know the new recruits (minus Andre) are already on campus and practicing. I assumed they were practicing with the whole team, but I don’t know that for a fact
My god, Ulla, why do you make it so easy to take up to VCU. VCU was 8-5 in the OOC, all 5 of their losses were to really good teams. They beat the common opponents that we played. We were 2-10 in OOC, including blow-out losses to teams like Delaware and Jacksonville St and lost to the two common opponents we played.
Really no question that VCU had a better OOC than we did. Of course, you can say the same thing for probably 300 plus teams last year, given the fact that we won 2 games the entire OOC slate.
Yes, we did beat VCU head to head twice last year and that was great, the sole two highlights of what was a very forgettable season of Spider hoops.
97, sorry, but if any team beats another team twice, home and away, then by definition the better team is the one that won. Is that so hard to understand?
So let me get this straight...all things considered & all variables as givens. If Team A goes 20 & 2, and Team B goes 2 & 20, but Team B beats Team A, then using your "by definition", then Team B is better than Team A?
If say NC State (26-10; 8-6 ACC) wins the national basketball championship tourney over highly favored Houston (31-3; 16-0 SWC), a team with a much better record, was NC State the champion and the better team?
Sorry, just not buying your "by definition" thing. Maybe it's "your personal definition". You don't take into account exceptions & aberrations that would skew your statement to fit your definition.
if you want to say VCU was better than us in November and December, fine.
but in the A10, we were both 9-9, they had an easier in conference schedule, and we beat them twice.
if VCU was better than us they should have beaten us at least once.
yes, they had a better overall season.
but in the A10, we were both 9-9, they had an easier in conference schedule, and we beat them twice.
if VCU was better than us they should have beaten us at least once.
yes, they had a better overall season.
but it's not accurate. We beat Davidson twice but who had the better team... the team that won the conference tournament and went to the NCAAs or us?
I believe the original discussion was not who was the better team but rather who had the better OOC record. That was my only point. I would agree with Ulla that given both of our mediocre/disappointing seasons, our 2 head to head victories over VCU last year, establishes us as the better team last year.
Do we get a banner for that?
Do we get a banner for that?
I'm going to take a ton of heat for this. I too was only talking about who had the better OOC schedule. Arguably you guys were the better squad and solidly passed the eye test in the 2nd half of the conference schedule. We shall see how both teams gel in a few months. Both will likely be very good.
Nothing wrong with the schedule and you get the luck of the draw in the A10. I don't like the unbalanced schedule and never have, especially in a year where there are only 3 decent teams in the league and none ended up in the top 30. That's just bad. VCU had 5 games in the OOC vs teams in the top 40 and 2 against top 10 according to KenPom. Hard to argue the pre-season SOS. Actually impossible to argue it. We're only talking SOS pre-conference season.
Their OOC SOS was 37, so it wasn't exactly "weak."
VCU clearly played much tougher teams than UR did (at the top end), but their weak opponents were weaker than ours.
Interestingly, one of our common opponents was a Quad 2 loss for us, but only a Quad 3 win for them (ODU).
Bottom line, we went 2-5 in our "must win" OOC games, and VCU went 8-0. Had we been able to sweep our "must win" OOC games, it still would have been a disappointing season, but the tenor of the conversation changes dramatically. Heck, had we been able to win just all our Quad 4 games (conference and non) we'd have finished .500 at least.
I'm not trying to be argumentative, but you scheduled too many teams that ended up with really weak RPIs. you've got 5 teams OOC with RPIs over 200, plus Winthrop at 173. VMI is a SOS killer at 313. that's 6 weak OOC game. those games offset the SOS benefit of the tough teams you played. clearly playing more teams in the 50-150 range like we did and eliminating some 200+ RPI games would have helped your SOS and RPI.
of course, you have to win those games and we didn't.
it wouldn't have mattered anyway, though. even with a few more ODU type wins instead of VMI type wins, you wouldn't dance going 9-9 in the A10 last year.
Both VCU and our OOC schedule last year were good enough to allow us to be in consideration for an at large, of course neither of us won enough for that to come into play.
My fear this year is that Mooney is going to schedule a bunch of cupcakes with our remaining OOC to try and inflate our win total to avoid what happened last year in the OOC. I hope that is not the case, that is not the direction we want our program to be going, we want to always play a really challenging OOC.
My fear this year is that Mooney is going to schedule a bunch of cupcakes with our remaining OOC to try and inflate our win total to avoid what happened last year in the OOC. I hope that is not the case, that is not the direction we want our program to be going, we want to always play a really challenging OOC.
I agree we generally want to play great schedules when the roster dictates it, but I think the losses piling up early last year hurt our confidence. it took us a while to pull it together. and I'd expect with only 5 guys returning that played for us last year that we'll need time to gel again.
I think we have enough tough games already scheduled, and I doubt we add more. it would be almost impossible to add a big name team this late anyway, but I doubt we want one.
I think we have enough tough games already scheduled, and I doubt we add more. it would be almost impossible to add a big name team this late anyway, but I doubt we want one.
If we were to schedule more “cupcakes” than usual it’s a double-edge sword. On one hand, Mooney can benefit by inflating our win total to boost team confidence, use it as a metric for improvement, help him not get fired, etc. On the other hand, if we go 2-10 and still lose to the Jacksonville State and Delaware’s of the world, then surely it will be the final straw for Mooney’s coaching tenure here.
Sometimes it's tough to know who the cupcakes are going to be.
I doubt most of our opponents pegged us as a 176 RPI team going into last season.
I doubt most of our opponents pegged us as a 176 RPI team going into last season.
True that. But if you see us load up on a bunch of bottom feeder CAA teams, Big South, or MEAC teams with the final OOC games, it will be pretty apparent our scheduling strategy is to save the coaching staff's job versus get our team in a position to compete for an NCAA bid.
Well...
I was just looking for computer ranking predictions and found a site that says we will be favored over Longwood on 11/9/2018 at the Robins Center.
Is it possible that is our opening game? Or the figment of someone's imagination?
Same site also predicted all 3 VA schools to tie for 3rd in the A-10 portion of the schedule at 10-8, so that might detract from its current credibility. However they did predict us #175 last season.
So I may check back when they have more info.
Gotta get games against the biggies. Cupcakes are there for the beating. Problem is they kind of want to win too and you'd better beat them. 2 of those games taken and a 20 win season and there's a real live chance of getting a bid as long as you get to the conference semi. Gotta have em when they are kind enough to give them to you. Heck TX and FUVA almost went down. Both were in serious doubt at the 1 minute mark. The bottom fell out when you guys came and dismantled us at home. At that point I knew there would be no NCAA or NIT unless a huge win streak happened.
