As the season approaches...
- Thread starter urmite
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I think that middle ground is the most likely scenario, improving enough from last year and looking good enough at the end of this season to justify high expectations for next year.
And this is the problem. This cycle has been repeating now since the Sweet 16 year except we never live up to the expectations!
And adding Blake Francis, who will probably be our starting 2 no matter who wins it this season. This is why I consider the development of another big to play alongside GG to be one of the most important objectives for this season. We will have great shooters at 1-3, but they are all short for their position. Really want to have some height at the 4 to compensate, so that is why I'm pinning my hopes on Sal.
VT--this is where you have stated your case best. Much more persuasive than alternately disparaging, denigrating, or de-emphasizing De'monte or Khwan's contributions. Just my two cents.
It would be hard to not improve our record from last year with this bull shit OOC schedule. CM knows he has to show improvement in the win column, so he scheduled weak. I guess it will be up to Hardt to determine if it’s real improvement or fools gold.
2016/17 OOC
Virginia Military 4-24 (3-16) 329 72-69 W
Old Dominion 19-12 (12-7) 136 61-64 L
Robert Morris 14-19 (10-10) 240 81-69 W
Hampton 12-16 (11-6) 284 65-52 W
Maryland 23-8 (12-7) 34 82-88 L
Boston Coll. 9-23 (2-17) 219 67-54 W
Bucknell 26-8 (18-3) 63 68-73 L
Wake Forest 19-13 (10-10) 39 67-75 L
UMBC 16-12 (9-8) 165 78-75 W
Texas Tech 18-14 (6-13) 123 72-79 L
James Madison 9-23 (8-12) 256 75-55 W
So we basically replaced Maryland and Bucknell with Georgetown and Loyola. Losing Texas Tech is a drop, but meh. Our schedule this year isn't monstrously worse than 2016/17.
Yes last year's schedule was tougher.
Virginia Military 4-24 (3-16) 329 72-69 W
Old Dominion 19-12 (12-7) 136 61-64 L
Robert Morris 14-19 (10-10) 240 81-69 W
Hampton 12-16 (11-6) 284 65-52 W
Maryland 23-8 (12-7) 34 82-88 L
Boston Coll. 9-23 (2-17) 219 67-54 W
Bucknell 26-8 (18-3) 63 68-73 L
Wake Forest 19-13 (10-10) 39 67-75 L
UMBC 16-12 (9-8) 165 78-75 W
Texas Tech 18-14 (6-13) 123 72-79 L
James Madison 9-23 (8-12) 256 75-55 W
So we basically replaced Maryland and Bucknell with Georgetown and Loyola. Losing Texas Tech is a drop, but meh. Our schedule this year isn't monstrously worse than 2016/17.
Yes last year's schedule was tougher.
We really have no idea how this OOC will turn out. But I will guess that 2017 was 214th, 2018 was 34th, and 2019 will be 314th...
Yes, VT is influencing me back on the pro-Mooney side. Someone talk me back on the ledge. I am now thinking Mooney has just had a run of bad luck, and if the administration had not hamstrung him so bad he would have been able to recruit the added depth and extra impact player or two that would have pushed us over the edge a few of those seasons. I am coming around VT. Not quite on Team Ulla yet.
I don't think we scheduled weak intentionally. I posted some of this earlier and figured this was a good spot to post again. This OOC schedule is very similar to the one a few years ago when we ended up being the 1st team left out of the dance. This year will be in order on the left, and I will put the one from a few years ago beside it on the right. That one will be out of order so we can match up the games and see what the difference looks like:
11/9 - Longwood --- Radford
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) --- Howard
11/16 - IUPUI --- IUPUI
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* --- Northern Iowa
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* --- NC State
11/25 - Hampton --- Northeastern
11/28 - at Georgetown --- Pepperdine
12/1 - Wake Forest --- Wake
12/5 - Coppin State --- W&M
12/15 - Oral Roberts --- JMU
12/19 - Old Dominion --- ODU
12/22 - High point** --- High Point
12/29 - at South Alabama --- South Alabama
Hard to look at this and say these schedules are not very similar. And this
year's schedule is really not a lot different from most of the out of conference schedules we have played. Even going back to previous coaches. Last year's schedule was a little bit harder than normal, and this year's schedule is a little bit easier than normal, but when you really break it down, it is not that much different than a lot of our past schedules.
We usually have about five or six games we should win, about four or five where we should be underdogs, and maybe a couple of toss ups. I think it is fair to say this schedule comes close to matching that, and some of these teams might be better than predicted so we should probably wait and see how things turn out before accusing anyone of scheduling weak on purpose.
Little doubt this year's weak OOC scheduling was indeed intentional. Now last year's OOC appearing not to be strong from the outset but proved to be strong was unintentional. Oops! Mooney and his lead guy who coordinates it screwed up and Mooney wasn't going to let it happen again this year.
Mooney is now obviously coaching not to lose his job quicker than expected. Wonder if highly sought after Nick/Grant going into their 3rd year along with a prize like soph Jacob during their recruitment even in the slightest thought this would be the OOC schedule?
Mooney is now obviously coaching not to lose his job quicker than expected. Wonder if highly sought after Nick/Grant going into their 3rd year along with a prize like soph Jacob during their recruitment even in the slightest thought this would be the OOC schedule?
So, last year's schedule was supposed to be easy and turned out hard by mistake? Really? Let's take a look back and see if that is accurate:
Cincinnati went 30-6 two years ago, Vermont 29-6 and Bucknell 26-9. Jackson St. won 21 games and like Vermont and Bucknell, went dancing. La. Lafayette won 21, ODU went 19-12, Wake won 19 also went dancing. Add BC and Georgetown, who will never be easy games, and we knew going in we had 9 of the 12 games against good competition.
So, save the nonsense about Mooney trying to schedule easy 2 years ago and it ended up hard by surprise. Just stop already.
I think your comparisons are interesting but maybe neglect to show how much better that 2015 schedule resulted than I think was expected.
I put the expected Massey composite index for each 2018-19 opponent in parentheses in the left and the final RPI of the 2015 opponent on the right below:
11/9 - Longwood --- Radford (340/150)
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) --- Howard (319/253)
11/16 - IUPUI --- IUPUI (288/257)
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* --- Northern Iowa (57/11)
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* --- NC State (73/32)
11/25 - Hampton --- Northeastern (272/91)
11/28 - at Georgetown --- Pepperdine (74/149)
12/1 - Wake Forest --- Wake (84/143)
12/5 - Coppin State --- W&M (351/99)
12/15 - Oral Roberts --- JMU (238/158)
12/19 - Old Dominion --- ODU (78/41)
12/22 - High point** --- High Point (256/92)
12/29 - at South Alabama --- South Alabama (223/271)
There are only three games where the Massey composite is better for this year than 2015, 10 are worse. Of the 10 worse, 4 are 0-50 spots worse, 2 are 51-100 spots worse, 3 are 151-200 spots worse and 1 is 250+ spots worse.
So we’d have to see a lot of those teams really overperform to be in the same ballpark.
I put the expected Massey composite index for each 2018-19 opponent in parentheses in the left and the final RPI of the 2015 opponent on the right below:
11/9 - Longwood --- Radford (340/150)
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) --- Howard (319/253)
11/16 - IUPUI --- IUPUI (288/257)
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* --- Northern Iowa (57/11)
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* --- NC State (73/32)
11/25 - Hampton --- Northeastern (272/91)
11/28 - at Georgetown --- Pepperdine (74/149)
12/1 - Wake Forest --- Wake (84/143)
12/5 - Coppin State --- W&M (351/99)
12/15 - Oral Roberts --- JMU (238/158)
12/19 - Old Dominion --- ODU (78/41)
12/22 - High point** --- High Point (256/92)
12/29 - at South Alabama --- South Alabama (223/271)
There are only three games where the Massey composite is better for this year than 2015, 10 are worse. Of the 10 worse, 4 are 0-50 spots worse, 2 are 51-100 spots worse, 3 are 151-200 spots worse and 1 is 250+ spots worse.
So we’d have to see a lot of those teams really overperform to be in the same ballpark.
Exactly and ty MrT!. You saved me from going crotchey on him.
Plus 2015's OOC was only ranked 177th by Kenpom. Not what the committee is looking for from mid-major programs to give out a bid more times than not.
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Not easy but Mooney never thought it would turn out as the 34th hardest OOC going by Kenpom. If Mooney did why did Mooney tell JOC in that article that he regretted penciling in a schedule that difficult?
Exactly and ty MrT!. You saved me from going crotchey on him.
Plus 2015's OOC was only ranked 177th by Kenpom. Not what the committee is looking for from mid-major programs to give out a bid more times than not.
Except that we went only 7-6 against that OOC schedule and still ended up being the 1st team left out of the dance, so obviously, the committee did not hold that against us. We need our conference to do well and we need some wins against the top teams in our conference. That, along with finishing high up in our conference, is the key to getting a bid.
I hear what you are saying, but let's wait and see how these numbers turn out. It is a little strange to use one rating (massey) for one set of numbers and totally different rating (rpi) for another set, especially when the RPI has always been a joke of a rating, and its numbers are often far from accurate. KenPom had ODU 70, High Point 145, JMU 199, and pretty much every team listed above with significantly higher numbers than the rpi numbers you showed.
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So I think you’re getting a little hung up on the ratings method. There is no preseason RPI and I couldn’t find a 2015 preseason Massey composite. Itstill adequately illustrates the point I think.
Really I’m suggesting the same thing you are, which is wait and see how this OOC slate performs. I think it’s less likely than more to be as good as 2015 given how wide the disparity is between this year’s preseason rankings and those 2015 final rpis.
And obviously if the OOC was more of challenge like say #125 UR would have received a bid. And if CL doesn't get injured another bid comes the Spiders way. If this, if that, so many ifs or should I refer to them as scenarios. VT4700, enjoy this banter back and forth. I have run out patience with Mooney.
There is no pre season rpi and there will be no season rpi this year because the rpi is finally dead. What a joke of a ratings system, and I don't think it does adequately illustrate the point when numerous teams' rpi numbers were so far off from so many other ratings systems.
He regretted it after the fact when he said maybe his young team was not ready for such a demanding schedule. Here are his comments before the fact:
"We're thrilled that our schedule gives us a chance to compete against some of the best teams in the nation," Head Coach Chris Mooney said. "It's great to have a mix of conference champions, local rivals, and legendary programs coming into the Robins Center this season."
I disagree I do think we intentionally scheduled weaker. VT that year A10 was considerably stronger. # 7 league. Last year I think #11. This year is expected to be similar possibly worse. The coaches know this. We need to get back to being #7 rated league. If they were trying to do a similar schedule to that year they would have factored in relative strength of A10 too & realized it would need to be much stronger to make up for A10 weakness comparatively. I don’t know why u r not considering this. Now there is always a chance A10 or OOC or both outperform expectations.
Anyway I’ll give you 2-1 odds in a little wager if u want about whether this year’s OOC schedule will rank higher than the year u r comparing against.
Anyway I’ll give you 2-1 odds in a little wager if u want about whether this year’s OOC schedule will rank higher than the year u r comparing against.
Look, I tried to provide a more evidence-based comparison of the two schedules than just “these teams look similar.” If you’d like to offer something more analytical I’m certainly interested in hearing it.
I feel like I'm watching a debate and one party is using Monte Carlo analysis, and the other is doing the 3 Card Monte.
I've added Massey Composite 2014-15 Preseason/Postseason in red:
11/9 - Longwood --- Radford (340/150) 210/172
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) --- Howard (319/253) 322/276
11/16 - IUPUI --- IUPUI (288/257) 330/282
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* --- Northern Iowa (57/11) 74/17
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* --- NC State (73/32) 42/28
11/25 - Hampton --- Northeastern (272/91) 167/115
11/28 - at Georgetown --- Pepperdine (74/149) 190/130
12/1 - Wake Forest --- Wake (84/143) 112/128
12/5 - Coppin State --- W&M (351/99) 159/127
12/15 - Oral Roberts --- JMU (238/158) 253/176
12/19 - Old Dominion --- ODU (78/41) 127/58
12/22 - High point** --- High Point (256/92) 197/137
12/29 - at South Alabama --- South Alabama (223/271) 272/286
Really not that important to me. My only point was this year's OOC schedule, though maybe a little weaker than most, is not that different than a lot of our past OOC schedules, including the one we are comparing it to. And, I stand by that.
Buck is terrible, mooney is great, the sky is green ... rinse and repeat.
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