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As the season approaches...

fan2011 said:
Kenpom is usually late October. RPI forecast is completely useless now.
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I am hoping Kenpom moves 3 or 4 days earlier since the season has.
And I may wait one selection cycle before I completely ignore the RPI.
 
FrontRoyalSpider said:
Prior to the first game "torch" those ugly red uniforms.
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Not our first game, but first game for anyone is Election Day. Instead of the following Friday. we decided to stay with the old first day.
 
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Wow! Kenpom has the Spiders at #115 and ranked 7th in A10 a spot ahead of GM. Added pundit pressure on Mooney to deliver.
 
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SouthJerseySpiderFan said:
Wow! Kenpom has the Spiders at #115 and ranked 7th in A10 a spot ahead of GM. Added pundit pressure on Mooney to deliver.
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That wasn’t t there 1pm yesterday...nice timing.

SLU only team predicted to win more than 19 games without OOC Tourney games.

When was the last time we were predicted to win 3 more games than another team in RVA?
 
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Kenpom has us higher than I expected. Predicting Richmond wins ~8 OOC gams, and ~10 conference games. Most of the predicted improvement is on the defensive side (234th last year to a predicted 141st this year)

Kenpom also predicts the A10 as a whole will be historically weak. Looking like a 1 bid year.
 
Everyone always says the A10 is having a weak year yet we always manage at least 3 teams in the tournament. I think A10 will surprise this year and be a top 7 league
 
Anyone know how Kenpom power ratings are calculated before the season starts? Seems like it would have a very low accuracy. Their ranking are much more optimistic about the Spiders than a lot of people on this forum. Either that or many of the people on the forum think a 115 ranking is terrible and expect much better from the team.
 
UR80sfan said:
Anyone know how Kenpom power ratings are calculated before the season starts? Seems like it would have a very low accuracy. Their ranking are much more optimistic about the Spiders than a lot of people on this forum. Either that or many of the people on the forum think a 115 ranking is terrible and expect much better from the team.
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Kenpom preseason ratings are mostly based on returning players and average performance over the past 5 seasons. Very highly ranked recruits can also increase ratings, but only for ~top 25 players.

We were top 100 in kenpom in 4 of the past 5 seasons (but 181st last season) which probably is contributing significantly to our higher than expected ranking.
 
Top 115 Kenpom baby. Let's raise another banner. Maybe when Mooney hits the all time program wins mark, we can invite Mr. Kenpom himself as a special guest. If it weren't for him, we'd have no banners to raise.
 
ur2K said:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...no-353-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/

210. Richmond
Few teams can say their best player is 6-10, but that is the case with Richmond's Grant Golden. Chris Mooney has been at UR since 2005-06; if the Spiders wind up around 210 by year's end, might be best for a fresh start for man and team.
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Don't sweat the comments by the author of this article, only 5 or so disgruntled fans on this forum think it is time for a new coach at Richmond :D

Approx. 60% of all college teams are expected to be better this season :(
 
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We should keep track of everyone's predictions and review how they did at season end. I think some people are way too negative. This team is going to surprise on the upside. There is no way we are 210 at yearend.
 
Not-A-Homer said:
Don't sweat the comments by the author of this article, only 5 or so disgruntled fans on this forum think it is time for a new coach at Richmond :D

Approx. 60% of all college teams are expected to be better this season :(
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South Dakota lost Matt Mooney, and still picked 85 spots above us. But hey, South Dakota is easy to recruit to, and I hear they let anyone in.
 
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Just realized, KenPom hasn’t filled in the Strength of Schedule or Personnel sections yet...
 
UR80sfan said:
We should keep track of everyone's predictions and review how they did at season end. I think some people are way too negative. This team is going to surprise on the upside. There is no way we are 210 at yearend.
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Put me down for 5th in the A-10, 17 wins.
 
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I'd bet this years team will be better by mid Feb than last year's team at the same time. Impossible to measure but that's about as optimistic as I can get.

Building a bench is some recruiting and a lot development, I don't think the current coaching staff is very good at the latter.
 
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urmite said:
Just realized, KenPom hasn’t filled in the Strength of Schedule or Personnel sections yet...
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For Kenpom I believe SOS is updated as games are played and describes sos up to the current point in the season. Player info isn’t put in until games are played and the players actual have stats.
 
spider23 said:
13-5 A10, 2nd place tie in conference. Not sure how we fare OOC.
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Is this a prediction or just what you dream for us? May be just a hope for 23 and not a prediction (or maybe it is ), but no doubt many on here have this or similar expectations. There is very little of substance to support this (or similar) as an actual prediction (thus anyone not on this board picking us 10th -12th and not 2nd). We were not at all good or even close last year. We have three known commodities. They are good, not great and better offensively than defensively so far in their careers and we had HUGE defensive problems last year. Everything beyond those three is unknown (at best). And the little we do know says the sophomores weren't at the top of any recruiting classes and didn't show much as freshman and aren't likely to be huge impact players and the freshman are a total unknown, but are certainly less heralded than many other A-10 classes. These are the same kind of predictions we saw for last year and we failed (somewhat miserably) and there was FAR more reason to think this was achievable heading into last year then there is heading into this year.

But what I REALLY struggle with on this board is if these are the actual expectations year after year that folks have for us, why aren't those same people atop the list of the frustrated looking for a change since we never achieve them??

To be clear, I am not singling out 23 here, but more generally the group who in my opinion have unreasonable and unsupportable expectations, but that also seem to think all is well when we fall well short of those expectations. If we should be better and we are not, when does someone get held accountable? And if we think no one should be held accountable (because we are young, because we are inexperienced, because we are improving etc. or maybe just because what we are getting is good enough in your view) than how do you have such high expectations year after year? The logic of some here seems to be we are GOING TO BE this or that and we are GOING to win this many and we are GOING to finish this way (see above, but many other examples too) and we certainly shouldn't make any changes when that's who we are. Except its not who we are - - - we don't turn out to be this or that or win that many or finish up there etc. When is there accountability for what we are and what we have (or haven't) actually achieved?
 
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fan2011 said:
For Kenpom I believe SOS is updated as games are played and describes sos up to the current point in the season. Player info isn’t put in until games are played and the players actual have stats.
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By Personnel Section I mean Experience & Continuity.
And for SOS I thought since he shows an adjusted efficiency Margin for everyone he could have a placeholder SOS.
 
PhillySpider said:
Is this a prediction or just what you dream for us? May be just a hope for 23 and not a prediction (or maybe it is ), but no doubt many on here have this or similar expectations. There is very little of substance to support this (or similar) as an actual prediction (thus anyone not on this board picking us 10th -12th and not 2nd). We were not at all good or even close last year. We have three known commodities. They are good, not great and better offensively than defensively so far in their careers and we had HUGE defensive problems last year. Everything beyond those three is unknown (at best). And the little we do know says the sophomores weren't at the top of any recruiting classes and didn't show much as freshman and aren't likely to be huge impact players and the freshman are a total unknown, but are certainly less heralded than many other A-10 classes. These are the same kind of predictions we saw for last year and we failed (somewhat miserably) and there was FAR more reason to think this was achievable heading into last year then there is heading into this year.

But what I REALLY struggle with on this board is if these are the actual expectations year after year that folks have for us, why aren't those same people atop the list of the frustrated looking for a change since we never achieve them??

To be clear, I am not singling out 23 here, but more generally the group who in my opinion have unreasonable and unsupportable expectations, but that also seem to think all is well when we fall well short of those expectations. If we should be better and we are not, when does someone get held accountable? And if we think no one should be held accountable (because we are young, because we are inexperienced, because we are improving etc. or maybe just because what we are getting is good enough in your view) than how do you have such high expectations year after year? The logic of some here seems to be we are GOING TO BE this or that and we are GOING to win this many and we are GOING to finish this way (see above, but many other examples too) and we certainly shouldn't make any changes when that's who we are. Except its not who we are - - - we don't turn out to be this or that or win that many or finish up there etc. When is there accountability for what we are and what we have (or haven't) actually achieved?
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I will try to answer the best I can, and I know some will disagree, but if you want an honest reply, here you go: First, I will disagree on a couple of things. You said our top 3 are good, not great. I disagree. Our top 3 are great players who would likely each start on all 14 A-10 teams. I can agree that Nick and Grant are better offensively than defensively right now, but you will not find a better defensive player than Jacob in our league. I have yet to see his size be a liability, and his defense and steals often leads to easy offensive buckets for us. That is a huge weapon to have.

You said we were not close to good last year. Allow me to agree and disagree with that. OOC we were terrible, but we were 9-9 in the A-10 last year. Is that great? No, but if you want to know why I am one of the people who expects us to be above .500 in the A-10 and in the thick of a top 4 seed, it is because we nearly did that last year, and we return 3 of the best players in the A-10 this year. So, breaking the season down, I would say we were at least "close to good" in A-10 play.

Why am I optimistic and still supportive and why am I not frustrated and why do I not want a coaching change? Because I look at our past several years differently than some of the ones who look at it negatively. Thanks to such a bad OOC record, last year was an overall bad year, no doubt about it. But, I don't see 6 bad seasons before that like some do. I see 3 of the seasons as near misses as far as the tourney is concerned. I see a Ced Lindsay injury ruining a chance to dance one year, I see us being the 1st team left out of the dance with a nice NIT run another year, and I see a 13-5 A-10 record and another nice NIT run a 3rd year. Would it have been nice to dance one or two of those years? Sure, but I don't see those years as failures. Sorry, but I just don't. I look at the recent near misses and have an attitude of "keep knocking and you might get in". Also, I look at our past and do not conveniently ignore or forget about the back to back tourney seasons. No, they were not in the past few years, but they were not 20 years ago either. So, if we go back 9 years and not 7, I see 2 NCAA teams and 3 near misses, I see teams that went 13-3, 13-3, 13-5, and 12-6 in the A-10 which shows me we can compete just fine in this conference, and I see a program that continues to have some talent each and every year, which as a result, gives me hope each and every year.
 
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VT4700 said:
I will try to answer the best I can, and I know some will disagree, but if you want an honest reply, here you go: First, I will disagree on a couple of things. You said our top 3 are good, not great. I disagree. Our top 3 are great players who would likely each start on all 14 A-10 teams. I can agree that Nick and Grant are better offensively than defensively right now, but you will not find a better defensive player than Jacob in our league. I have yet to see his size be a liability, and his defense and steals often leads to easy offensive buckets for us. That is a huge weapon to have.

You said we were not close to good last year. Allow me to agree and disagree with that. OOC we were terrible, but we were 9-9 in the A-10 last year. Is that great? No, but if you want to know why I am one of the people who expects us to be above .500 in the A-10 and in the thick of a top 4 seed, it is because we nearly did that last year, and we return 3 of the best players in the A-10 this year. So, breaking the season down, I would say we were at least "close to good" in A-10 play.

Why am I optimistic and still supportive and why am I not frustrated and why do I not want a coaching change? Because I look at our past several years differently than some of the ones who look at it negatively. Thanks to such a bad OOC record, last year was an overall bad year, no doubt about it. But, I don't see 6 bad seasons before that like some do. I see 3 of the seasons as near misses as far as the tourney is concerned. I see a Ced Lindsay injury ruining a chance to dance one year, I see us being the 1st team left out of the dance with a nice NIT run another year, and I see a 13-5 A-10 record and another nice NIT run a 3rd year. Would it have been nice to dance one or two of those years? Sure, but I don't see those years as failures. Sorry, but I just don't. I look at the recent near misses and have an attitude of "keep knocking and you might get in". Also, I look at our past and do not conveniently ignore or forget about the back to back tourney seasons. No, they were not in the past few years, but they were not 20 years ago either. So, if we go back 9 years and not 7, I see 2 NCAA teams and 3 near misses, I see teams that went 13-3, 13-3, 13-5, and 12-6 in the A-10 which shows me we can compete just fine in this conference, and I see a program that continues to have some talent each and every year, which as a result, gives me hope each and every year.
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I don't think anyone denies what is stated that you see. The issue is whether or not those numbers are satisfactory. Seems to me that is where the disagreement begins and ends.
 
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Philly,
couple of things. one, in 23's defense he doesn't really think we're going 13-5 in the A10. he's back on his meds today.
two, for your big question ... there will be accountability when enough of the 10 year contract allows for the possibility of accountability. a school our size was NEVER writing that check. sorry some don't get that. it's probably in range next year if things don't improve. but if we see light at the end of the tunnel and if we think next year is the year for us (again), then we won't write the check then either.
 
spiderman said:
Philly,
couple of things. one, in 23's defense he doesn't really think we're going 13-5 in the A10. he's back on his meds today.
two, for your big question ... there will be accountability when enough of the 10 year contract allows for the possibility of accountability. a school our size was NEVER writing that check. sorry some don't get that. it's probably in range next year if things don't improve. but if we see light at the end of the tunnel and if we think next year is the year for us (again), then we won't write the check then either.
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Few if any but UR, CM, and his agent know what his contract looks like at this point. We’re not dipping into the endowment to buy it out but it’s not that inconceivable that it could get bought out at this point through other means.

I still anticipate that if we post a losing season this year that’s pretty much it. It would be really hard to sell an ncaa drought and back to back losing seasons in my estimation. Conversely if he makes the tournament; then he’ll get 2 years back on his contract.

It’s the likely gray middle ground that poses problems for hardt. I hope for everyone’s sake we don’t end up there, the cats and dogs would go full Peloponnesian War.
 
urmite said:
By Personnel Section I mean Experience & Continuity.
And for SOS I thought since he shows an adjusted efficiency Margin for everyone he could have a placeholder SOS.
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Experience and continuity are weighted by minutes played, so they won’t be there until after the first game.
 
It is so interesting to read about everyone's predictions!

I will not make any predictions. Besides the usual things that you can't quantify (how ready the freshmen are, injuries, team chemistry, etc.), I don't know how all the transfers who will be eligible this year will affect each team's play. I will simply root for the Spiders, hope for the best, and let our administration and top boosters do their thing, if necessary at the end of the season.
 
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