2022-2023 Season outlook

[RichmondNative]

I would be a fan of lineups that had Goose at the 3 as suggested here (with Burton at 4). Then bigelow gets minutes at both spots backing up and Grace is probably a pretty straight backup at the 5. Opens time for roche and DJII at 2 (DJII also see time at the point) and our rotation is pretty short and tight like Moon likes it.

Absent seeing any of these guys playing together as a unit, this seems like the best speculation on how rotations play out.

Yep, I think Goose is going to get his minutes if he stays healthy. He did impact winning last year when he came back and brings a ton of intangibles in my view.

Goose will get minutes, but I think he will play multiple positions, which is different than last year.

Goose minutes will be from PG, SG, and SF so he's getting minutes from multiple positions that protects him….Sure, he may play less mins than he was getting 30+ consistently end of last year but I don't think a significant change.

Illustration of the point by 23. I also think Goose gets closer to his average 24.5 mpg last year then where he finished the year. As others have said more competition for the minutes and no set starting spot like last year.

Nelson​	20​
Roche​	19​
Burton​	35​
Bigelow​	24​
Quinn​	28​
Grace​	20​
Goose​	24​
Dji​	20​
Crabtree​	10​

This chart looks like it has a good estimation, but there has been 0 discussion about Crabtree and I really think he is the odd man out. I don’t think he will average 10 mpg.

Now I just need to drive down to Richmond for the next work outs and sneak in and I will give my stronger opinion

My thoughts exactly. No way to make a decent guess without seeing these guys playing together.

 

[ur2K]

Is Goose back in Finland right now?

He’s on campus according to my kid who is at UR camp this week.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

“so I can't see a guy who has never made a 3 beating out a guy who made 110 last year.”

Def noted and I’m keeping this receipt(insane statement)…Dude basketball is more than 3pts… and all I can say is your feelings might be hurt bc of your lack of sight.

Basketball IS more than 3's but the game trends and analytics may say otherwise. The 3 is uber-important and it'll be hard to keep a player like Roche out of the game for any length of time.
I think Quinns offensive game requires space and we need more shooters on the floor than just Burton.

 

[spiderman]

Burton and Roche should be our top guns outside, but we'll always have shooters on the floor. I'm under the assumption Nelson can shoot but that's just based on HS/AAU highlights. I also assume Dji can shoot a bit, with his wrist better and plenty of reps. but even if he and Quinn rarely shoot from out there ... Bigelow, Goose, Grace and Crabtree are all good enough threats from outside to space the floor.

 

[97spiderfan]

We also have Dread and Noyes coming off of redshirt years and Randolph who we saw a bit last year. While it doesn't appear to most of us that they have roles in our deep roster, we also haven't seen these guys play much at all. Might be unlikely, but I don't think we should discount completely that one of these guys is not going to be impactful this year.

 

[spiderman]

true. if they get time, point stands. all are expected to be able to shoot. we'll always have more than just Burton as a threat on the perimeter.

 

[VT4700]

Burton and Roche should be our top guns outside, but we'll always have shooters on the floor. I'm under the assumption Nelson can shoot but that's just based on HS/AAU highlights. I also assume Dji can shoot a bit, with his wrist better and plenty of reps. but even if he and Quinn rarely shoot from out there ... Bigelow

We might always want to have shooters on the floor, but that doesn't mean we always will. When Tyler went cold the 2nd half of last season, Jacob was pretty much our only shooter out there.

Here are some of our 3 point results in our A-10 losses last year:

6-22
6-20
4-22
6-25
4-16
7-27

In our 4 A-10 tourney wins, we made 24 3s, and Jacob had 14 of them. Tyler, Goose, and Grace only had 3 each. We won, and that is all that matters, but coming back from two 15 point deficits, and winning like we did is probably not something we could match again. We won games in the 60s with defense, and we were definitely not spacing the floor with 3 point shooters during that run. Offense was a struggle most of the year, and we needed much better shooting last year.

I am very surprised to see you included Goose as a good enough 3 point threat to space the floor.....all you have done is criticize Goose from out there. Same with Grace, as I think you have gotten on his 3 point shooting as well. I am hoping for about 33-35% from Goose and Grace from 3, but it won't be volume 3s, and the defense won't have to focus on them. Tyler had an incredible early season start with his 3s last year, but was only 27-90 (30%) his last 25 games. Like Goose, I love what Grace brings, but he was 25-88 from 3 last year. And, we lost Jacob, so let's not pretend we have a bunch of solid 3 point guys returning.

What we need is Tyler and Bigelow to be a solid, consistent 35+% guy out there. Those guys, along with Roche, can be the ones to hit 3s and space the floor, and we need to have at least 2 of them out there all game. I'm not sure I can agree with you on Goose, Grace, and Crabtree spacing the floor. They can make 3s, but I don't see them forcing the defense to jump out on them from there all game. Goose and Grace can hopefully be in the 33-35% range, Nelson needs to make enough to be a threat from the PG spot, and Roche can be a big volume 3 guy at 37-38%. Might sound like a lot of hoping there, but it is doable.

 

[Eight Legger]

I won't say that we should have a better team this year than we ended up with last year, but I feel like we have potentially a better overall talent base. It will be interesting to see how it comes together.

 

[spiderman]

you're correct, VT. I don't think Goose or Grace are very strong 3 point shooters. I don't think that's even debatable. we can hope their percentages improve, but we have 4 years of data.

really I'm not expecting great shooting from Bigelow or Crabtree either. but all 4 of them will take the shot. that's all I'm saying about having shooters on the floor. I don't think defenders can leave them to double Quinn. and if they do ... they they can cut and Quinn will find them.

point is I don't think spacing the floor will be an issue.

I'd love to have more shooting and I do expect big things from Roche. I'm still hoping he's a 30 mpg guy. I don't see the benefit of a high volume 40% 3 point shooter sitting on the bench. but he has to win a job. he has to show he can handle and defend. I'm hoping he does.

 

[spider23]

I am hopeful for 3 pt shooting that we can have multiple 34+% shooters.

Hopefully one of Nelson or Dji

And 3 from Bigelow/Burton/Roche/Goose/Grace/Crab (if he is getting minutes)

I see in those clips from the official site Quinn out there shooting 3's. I'm sure that was one of selling points in coming here, that you can shoot those. Will be interesting to see how many he takes.

Last season Golden started out taking and making some (if memory serves me OK), and then stopped taking them - I guess lost confidence. I felt like his ability to make them at start of the season really forced other teams rim protector out, when he stopped taking them could back off and help more.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Do you guys think at the very least Matt and Goose are decent enough to keep the defense honest? I do and I think Zay will also be same. Obviously TB is good. Which can open up the floor for our playmakers.

 

[POMSpidur]

I won't say that we should have a better team this year than we ended up with last year, but I feel like we have potentially a better overall talent base. It will be interesting to see how it comes together.

How on earth did you come to this conclusion?

 

[spiderman]

in our last 11 wins starting on 2/1/2022 including our stretch run, Grant was a combined 0-11 from 3.
he had 4 games last season where he took 5 or more 3's and he shot them well. (3-7, 3-7, 2-7, 2-5).
we lost all 4 of those games.

so I really don't need Quinn shooting 3's. but someone needs to. Burton for one needs to take more. with his size, athleticism, and high release, he should be taking more than 4 per game.

 

[POMSpidur]

Absent seeing any of these guys playing together as a unit, this seems like the best speculation on how rotations play out.


Goose will get minutes, but I think he will play multiple positions, which is different than last year.


Illustration of the point by 23. I also think Goose gets closer to his average 24.5 mpg last year then where he finished the year. As others have said more competition for the minutes and no set starting spot like last year.


This chart looks like it has a good estimation, but there has been 0 discussion about Crabtree and I really think he is the odd man out. I don’t think he will average 10 mpg.


My thoughts exactly. No way to make a decent guess without seeing these guys playing together.

I think if Nelson only plays 20 minutes… this team will be in trouble. He needs to be on the court much more than half of the game.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

you're correct, VT. I don't think Goose or Grace are very strong 3 point shooters. I don't think that's even debatable. we can hope their percentages improve, but we have 4 years of data.

really I'm not expecting great shooting from Bigelow or Crabtree either. but all 4 of them will take the shot. that's all I'm saying about having shooters on the floor. I don't think defenders can leave them to double Quinn. and if they do ... they they can cut and Quinn will find them.

point is I don't think spacing the floor will be an issue.

I'd love to have more shooting and I do expect big things from Roche. I'm still hoping he's a 30 mpg guy. I don't see the benefit of a high volume 40% 3 point shooter sitting on the bench. but he has to win a job. he has to show he can handle and defend. I'm hoping he does.

" ... Bigelow, Goose, Grace and Crabtree are all good enough threats from outside to space the floor."
I'm confused as to why in one post you think those 4 are all good enough to space the floor and in your following post you say, "I don't think Goose or Grace are very strong 3 point shooters", and "I'm not expecting great shooting from Bigelow or Crabtree either". What??
Is it simply because you think they're willing to TAKE the shot? That doesn't make sense.

 

[spiderman]

" ... Bigelow, Goose, Grace and Crabtree are all good enough threats from outside to space the floor."
I'm confused as to why in one post you think those 4 are all good enough to space the floor and in your following post you say, "I don't think Goose or Grace are very strong 3 point shooters", and "I'm not expecting great shooting from Bigelow or Crabtree either". What??
Is it simply because you think they're willing to TAKE the shot? That doesn't make sense.

you said Quinn's game required more than just Burton as a shooter for spacing. I'm saying none of our shooters outside of Roche and Burton make a very high percentage of 3 pointers. yet they're still threats to take them. they'll still be defended. thus the floor is still spaced. none are like Cayo where you leave him out there.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

you said Quinn's game required more than just Burton as a shooter for spacing. I'm saying none of our shooters outside of Roche and Burton make a very high percentage of 3 pointers. yet they're still threats to take them. they'll still be defended. thus the floor is still spaced. none are like Cayo where you leave him out there.

So you ARE saying that because they're a "threat" to take them (even though they don't shoot a high % from 3) that they'll be defended (rather than double someone else I assume?) and therefore space the floor. Do I have that right?

 

[Eight Legger]

How on earth did you come to this conclusion?

Because top to bottom, I think this roster may have more all-around talent than last year's. For example, Cayo was a good player at times, but also a very limited one. Some games he disappeared completely, others he scored 14 points. Same with Golden. Some days, very good, other days, a bunch of careless turnovers, getting beaten on D a lot and missing a ton of 5-footers. Sherod was a shell of his former self and very one-dimensional. Wilson couldn't score. Sal never played, etc.

Roche is a better 3-point shooter than anyone we had last year except the A-10/NCAA version of Gilyard. Bigelow should fill a Cayo-esque role but is great from the line and can also shoot threes. Quinn won't score the way Golden did but may be better defensively. Burton should be better than he was last year. Dji will be better than last year. No one is Gilyard, but I think Nelson will surprise people right out of the gate. Goose and Grace have another year of experience and should be a little better.

 

[spider23]

Because top to bottom, I think this roster may have more all-around talent than last year's. For example, Cayo was a good player at times, but also a very limited one. Some games he disappeared completely, others he scored 14 points. Same with Golden. Some days, very good, other days, a bunch of careless turnovers, getting beaten on D a lot and missing a ton of 5-footers. Sherod was a shell of his former self and very one-dimensional. Wilson couldn't score. Sal never played, etc.

Roche is a better 3-point shooter than anyone we had last year except the A-10/NCAA version of Gilyard. Bigelow should fill a Cayo-esque role but is great from the line and can also shoot threes. Quinn won't score the way Golden did but may be better defensively. Burton should be better than he was last year. Dji will be better than last year. No one is Gilyard, but I think Nelson will surprise people right out of the gate. Goose and Grace have another year of experience and should be a little better.

Agree with much of the above, whether it will all come to fruition, we will see. As 4700 pointed out PG will be very very key. Gilly carried us many times. Golden can be a little under appreciated, but you are correct he was not a dominating force, but was good (not great) at a lot of aspects. Seems like Quinn can replicate his output. If Nelson is another generational type player, and comes out like Kevin Anderson, agree we have a very high ceiling.

 

[VT4700]

I won't say that we should have a better team this year than we ended up with last year, but I feel like we have potentially a better overall talent base. It will be interesting to see how it comes together.

Maybe not that we ended up with because that would mean better than the round of 32, so sweet 16. But, I definitely think we should and will be a better team in the regular season, and finish better than 10-8 in the A-10. Then, we will see if we can match or better the post season success from last year.

 

[VT4700]

you're correct, VT. I don't think Goose or Grace are very strong 3 point shooters. I don't think that's even debatable. we can hope their percentages improve, but we have 4 years of data.

really I'm not expecting great shooting from Bigelow or Crabtree either. but all 4 of them will take the shot. that's all I'm saying about having shooters on the floor. I don't think defenders can leave them to double Quinn. and if they do ... they they can cut and Quinn will find them.

point is I don't think spacing the floor will be an issue.

I'd love to have more shooting and I do expect big things from Roche. I'm still hoping he's a 30 mpg guy. I don't see the benefit of a high volume 40% 3 point shooter sitting on the bench. but he has to win a job. he has to show he can handle and defend. I'm hoping he does.

Sorry, but I can't see where you are going here. So, if you don't think Goose and Grace are good from 3, and it's not debatable, why do you think defenders will be out on them? If you are coaching against us, knowing how much you have criticized Goose and Grace from 3, why are you telling your guys to get on them from 3?

 

[VT4700]

Do you guys think at the very least Matt and Goose are decent enough to keep the defense honest? I do and I think Zay will also be same. Obviously TB is good. Which can open up the floor for our playmakers.

That's the key. We need enough guys on the floor who can make the 3 enough where the defense has to respect that. I love Goose's and Grace's game and expect a lot of minutes from them, and some 3s as well, but I am counting on Roche, Burton, and Bigelow to be the volume 3 guys who can hopefully make enough to keep the defense honest. If I am coaching against us, I make the others prove they can make them consistently before worrying about them because with the talent we have, you can't go out on everyone. But, when you have 3 solid guys on the floor making a lot of 3s, it opens everything up. Think back to our 24-7 year with Nick, Blake, and Jacob. So, if I want Goose and Quinn out there a lot, which I do, this goes back to my saying the key to our season is PG. If Jason can knock enough 3s down, it will open everything up because we won't have both Roche and Bigelow out there for 36+ minutes a game with Tyler. If not, we need Goose to step up, and shoot more and make more.

 

[VT4700]

in our last 11 wins starting on 2/1/2022 including our stretch run, Grant was a combined 0-11 from 3.
he had 4 games last season where he took 5 or more 3's and he shot them well. (3-7, 3-7, 2-7, 2-5).
we lost all 4 of those games.

so I really don't need Quinn shooting 3's. but someone needs to. Burton for one needs to take more. with his size, athleticism, and high release, he should be taking more than 4 per game.

Maybe, but only if he is making them. If he is 27-90 like he was the last 25 games, we might rather have Roche or Bigelow take more. Tyler is so good at other things, I might not want him getting too 3 happy out there. Definitely keep shooting them, but keep doing everything else as well.

 

[spiderman]

So you ARE saying that because they're a "threat" to take them (even though they don't shoot a high % from 3) that they'll be defended (rather than double someone else I assume?) and therefore space the floor. Do I have that right?

yes. just like last year. the only guy not defended out there was Cayo, despite some below average shooting percentages from outside.

but again ... I'm a fan of good shooting. I'd prefer a bunch of 40% three point shooters out there. but there are others ways to score as well. and we still have to defend.

 

[VT4700]

So you ARE saying that because they're a "threat" to take them (even though they don't shoot a high % from 3) that they'll be defended (rather than double someone else I assume?) and therefore space the floor. Do I have that right?

Trust me, I agree with the confusion here. He must think every coach we will play against has never coached before?

 

[VT4700]

yes. just like last year. the only guy not defended out there was Cayo, despite some below average shooting percentages from outside.

but again ... I'm a fan of good shooting. I'd prefer a bunch of 40% three point shooters out there. but there are others ways to score as well. and we still have to defend.

This is not accurate at all. I remember teams more often than not playing off our guys last year. That is why we had such a drop off offensively from the previous 2 years. We clearly missed Blake out there.

 

[spiderman]

Sorry, but I can't see where you are going here. So, if you don't think Goose and Grace are good from 3, and it's not debatable, why do you think defenders will be out on them? If you are coaching against us, knowing how much you have criticized Goose and Grace from 3, why are you telling your guys to get on them from 3?

because that's what defenses do.
despite Grace, Goose, Crabtree and Bigelow not shooting great in game situations, I do assume they knock down 40% or more in shooting drills uncovered. you can't leave many people uncovered from three. you could leave Cayo, begging him to shoot it ... but he'd just back you down anyway.

 

[spiderman]

This is not accurate at all. I remember teams more often than not playing off our guys last year. That is why we had such a drop off offensively from the previous 2 years. We clearly missed Blake out there.

I don't remember Goose or Grace turning down any wide open threes. when they were open they shot it. teams didn't leave them open on purpose.
Grant yes. he turned down some, and I'm ok with that early in the clock.

 

[SpiderDad75]

So what do we do IF our 3 pt guys are constantly getting beat or just one dimensional? Not saying they will/are , but then what?

 

[VT4700]

because that's what defenses do.
despite Grace, Goose, Crabtree and Bigelow not shooting great in game situations, I do assume they knock down 40% or more in shooting drills uncovered. you can't leave many people uncovered from three. you could leave Cayo, begging him to shoot it ... but he'd just back you down anyway.

Well, there is a big difference in practice uncovered and games when a team plays off of you, but is still in the area code. Defenses will play the double this guy and run back out on the that guy defense a lot, so the shooter is not being constantly guarded, but there is traffic there. That is not allowing the offense to space the floor.

 

[VT4700]

So what do we do IF our 3 pt guys are constantly getting beat or just one dimensional? Not saying they will/are , but then what?

Not sure what you mean. If we have good 3 point shooters, we find enough shots for them. The defense might win sometimes, but so will we. Teams knew Jacob, Blake, and Nick were good for 3, they guarded them closely, but the guys still found ways to make them at a good clip. What helps is we have a superstar like Tyler, and a big like Quinn that should help give us some good looks from 3. So, we have potential for the offense to be hard to stop this year, especially if the 3s are falling.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Not sure what you mean. If we have good 3 point shooters, we find enough shots for them. The defense might win sometimes, but so will we. Teams knew Jacob, Blake, and Nick were good for 3, they guarded them closely, but the guys still found ways to make them at a good clip. What helps is we have a superstar like Tyler, and a big like Quinn that should help give us some good looks from 3. So, we have potential for the offense to be hard to stop this year, especially if the 3s are falling.

TB is going to be TB not worried about him. I’m saying if those others can’t defend or can’t get open/create their shot and are constantly getting beat. What do we do then? Do we keep those guys in? Jacob and Blake were solid defensively. So we need our guys regardless of who it is to be at least as good. If we have a guy that can’t defend and is a liability do we just bite the bullet bc he can shoot?

 

[spiderman]

Well, there is a big difference in practice uncovered and games when a team plays off of you, but is still in the area code. Defenses will play the double this guy and run back out on the that guy defense a lot, so the shooter is not being constantly guarded, but there is traffic there. That is not allowing the offense to space the floor.

agreed, the floor is spaced more if good shooters have crazy range like Gilyard and Sherod.
but while that extra space helps, it's not a prerequisite to score.

 

[spiderman]

If we have a guy that can’t defend and is a liability do we just bite the bullet bc he can shoot?

we seemed to reduce Sherod's time last year when it was clear he couldn't move well enough any more.

defense and driving abillity clearly are big factors as Goose showed last year. but he was surrounded by guys that made it work. I don't think you can put 5 guys out there who aren't shooters.

 

[SpiderDad75]

we seemed to reduce Sherod's time last year when it was clear he couldn't move well enough any more.

defense and driving abillity clearly are big factors as Goose showed last year. but he was surrounded by guys that made it work. I don't think you can put 5 guys out there who aren't shooters.

Yeah I agree. Nick wasn’t able to defend and ultimately I think we hid him as best we could. I don’t think we have anyone on the roster whose mobility is that limited. My hope is we become a very good defensive team as I think we have the pieces. At the same time if player a can’t guard his lunch then for me he would need to be in situationally. Just call me old fashioned 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

[97spiderfan]

we seemed to reduce Sherod's time last year when it was clear he couldn't move well enough any more.

Correct, but this observation should have been made by the coaching staff in summer practices. Watching Sherod move was painful at times, and this is one of the reasons that some people believe Mooney shows favoritism to his senior players.

 

[spiderman]

Yeah I agree. Nick wasn’t able to defend and ultimately I think we hid him as best we could. I don’t think we have anyone on the roster whose mobility is that limited. My hope is we become a very good defensive team as I think we have the pieces. At the same time if player a can’t guard his lunch then for me he would need to be in situationally. Just call me old fashioned 🤷🏼‍♂️

agreed, but I can't have a guy who only defends either. Zay last year was very good defensively. offensively he was a non-factor ... or worse.
I'm confident in Dji defensively but I need to see him be a factor on the other end, whether it's shooting, driving, or creating for others.
Goose is strong defensively. I don't love him on offensive for a SG but he finishes drives and he did hit a few threes. the idea of him at the 1 is interesting and worth a look. he hasn't looked like a 1 to me though.
I love the shooting numbers from Roche, but I can't lock him into playing time until I see his handle and defense. if he's even just ok defensively I think he has a big role. we need shooting.

plus Bigelow. we have more questions than we've had in years.

 

[SpiderDad75]

agreed, but I can't have a guy who only defends either. Zay last year was very good defensively. offensively he was a non-factor ... or worse.
I'm confident in Dji defensively but I need to see him be a factor on the other end, whether it's shooting, driving, or creating for others.
Goose is strong defensively. I don't love him on offensive for a SG but he finishes drives and he did hit a few threes. the idea of him at the 1 is interesting and worth a look. he hasn't looked like a 1 to me though.
I love the shooting numbers from Roche, but I can't lock him into playing time until I see his handle and defense. if he's even just ok defensively I think he has a big role. we need shooting.

plus Bigelow. we have more questions than we've had in years.

Absolutely…Dji included. Agree with everything here. We are def peas and carrots on this 😀

 

[VT4700]

TB is going to be TB not worried about him. I’m saying if those others can’t defend or can’t get open/create their shot and are constantly getting beat. What do we do then? Do we keep those guys in? Jacob and Blake were solid defensively. So we need our guys regardless of who it is to be at least as good. If we have a guy that can’t defend and is a liability do we just bite the bullet bc he can shoot?

I don't think we have anyone on the team who flat out can't defend. I think we will have some better than others, but this doesn't worry me at all because how many times will we face teams with multiple superstars out there? Goose can take out the opponent's main guy, and we can place our others as needed. If Goose is out, Bigelow could be the stopper on defense. If you are talking Roche and defense, I guess I am not as concerned as some might be. I'm sure there will be guys he can guard just fine that we can put him on because we won't be playing a team with 5 all conference guys. Bottom line is if he is making his 3s, it will always be a net positive with him on the floor.

It's not that I don't value defense. I 100% do. But, we are not UVA, who is all about defense. It's not that you won't play there if you get beat a lot. It is you won't play there if you are not above average on defense because they need all 5 guys to click on defense to be successful. They are more about defense than offense. With us, we are more about offense than defense. With our style of play, give me the 3 point shooter over defense all day long, especially if we already have a defensive stopper like Goose out there.

 

[MrTbone]

Yes but that wouldn’t jibe w a number of posters here who have said Dji is as good or nearly as good on D as goose. If he was as good as our best defender he would have easily played that role over Wilson.

Not if he was hampered by injury I think.