2022–23 Schedule Updates

[97spiderfan]

I say Longwood because it should be a game we win, its local, and with them coming off a good season - it may look good early in the year. Remember - the goal next year is to schedule strategically light. One good way to do that is schedule teams who had a good year last year, but maybe are likely to lose a lot and not be as strong this year. We could probably play this card to get a good Power 6 game - we made some noise in the NCAA last year, but lost most key players - so should be an easy win against a program most might recognize for the next year because of success last year.

This might be the worst scheduling advice I've read. What a team did last year, particularly a team like Longwood who is traditionally horrible and plays in one of the lowest of mid major program, has zero bearing on how it will look next year.

I believe they have already lost a few of their better players through the portal, so chances are Longwood will be Longwood next year, a Quad 4 home game. We already probably have to take a few of them with our MTE and if we have William and Mary on our schedule, there is another one. We don't need any more of these games. There is scheduling light and then their is scheduling dumb. This falls in the latter.

 

[Section9.RowD]

So the recent developments make me really hope that our we have a fairly strong non conf schedule … fine with a few theoretical gimmes early before the Barclay tourney thing but December should be competitive teams imo

 

[wr70beh]

This might be the worst scheduling advice I've read. What a team did last year, particularly a team like Longwood who is traditionally horrible and plays in one of the lowest of mid major program, has zero bearing on how it will look next year.

I believe they have already lost a few of their better players through the portal, so chances are Longwood will be Longwood next year, a Quad 4 home game. We already probably have to take a few of them with our MTE and if we have William and Mary on our schedule, there is another one. We don't need any more of these games. There is scheduling light and then their is scheduling dumb. This falls in the latter.

who schedules our games? Was it Jones? Since he’s gone I’m not sure who would schedule.

 

[SFspidur]

Believe Gipe was already overseeing that after Jenkins left.

 

[SFspidur]

Interesting...Rothstein says the UNI series is continuing.

 

[Section9.RowD]

Wonder if it was really a convenient travel addition

 

[SpiderDad75]

What are some good but realistic game you guys would like to see scheduled?

 

[Section9.RowD]

What are some good but realistic game you guys would like to see scheduled?

Belmont, Memphis, Marquette, Murray State

 

[spiderman]

I'm easier to please than most on the schedule, but give me 2 ACC, 2 Big East, 2 PL, 2 CAA, 2 Ivy, 2 SoCon and one random good team.

 

[gcarter52]

Belmont, Memphis, Marquette, Murray State

Purdue, Iowa, Syracuse, Miami

 

[SpiderDad75]

I'm easier to please than most on the schedule, but give me 2 ACC, 2 Big East, 2 PL, 2 CAA, 2 Ivy, 2 SoCon and one random good team.

I can dig this

 

[SpiderDad75]

Purdue, Iowa, Syracuse, Miami

Yeah those are tough…we get Syracuse in Nov right?

 

[Eight Legger]

I feel like Iowa state would gladly give us a game now, plus we know half their team.

 

[SpiderTrap]

In terms of big name conferences and schools - I like Memphis, Maryland, Rutgers, UVA or VA Tech (think we got better shot at Tech), Wake, Florida (Come on Hovde), Minnesota (Come on Jenkins). Try to think connections or geography where fans could still go see the away game.

Mid-Major level - I like Northern Iowa, Belmont, Chattanooga, Iona, Colgate, UNCW, Yale, Liberty, Winthrop, etc.

Scheduling is a balancing act. For a school like us who needs a strong OOC to make our NCAA resume - I would like to look for the following. Figure 13-14 OOC games.

4-5 Cupcake games - games we should no doubt win every time. Can be local, can be buy games for us, can be games with teams ranked 200+. But games we should get 4-5 wins out of no problem.

5 Mid-Major games. Games against well known mid-majors with good reputations, even if they are slated to have down years. Teams like Belmont, Northern Iowa, etc. Then also add in teams from mid-major conferences who look to be a top team in their league right now. Hope being - if we beat them - they go on to win their league and finish with a respectable ranking and maybe even make the NCAA tourney.

4 power games - this can come from OOC tourney, or scheduled alone. But these must be power conference or ranked team games. Most likely away or neutral floor. Even a mid level power conference team is fine - because generally speaking - even those teams finish with good rankings at the end of the year because of their conference. Kicker here - in an NCAA year - we probably got to win 2 of these game, maybe 1 - depending on well we do with Mid-Major games.

 

[SFspidur]

That's pretty close to the formula we followed this season. We came up a game short on the power teams, and unfortunately none of the three we did play were good enough to move the needle on good wins (and we lost two of them anyway).

Cupcakes: NC Central, Georgia State, Hofstra, Bucknell

Mid-majors: Utah State, Drake, Wofford, UNI, Toledo, ODU

Power: Maryland, Mississippi State, NC State

You could argue Hofstra belongs in the mid-major bin, but I opted for the cupcake bin partly because they were the campus game for the Bahamas event and those are typically supposed to be cupcakes. But they were a solid cupcake.

You could also argue ODU belongs in the cupcake bin given their recent history, but they have a strong tradition. So feel free to flip-flop bins with ODU and Hofstra if you like.

 

[gcarter52]

I can dig this

I stand with you SpiderDad, thanks for all you do. I’m old school, 1974-1978 grad.

 

[urmite]

Computers seem to concentrate on the low end of the OOC while people concentrate on the high end.

 

[SpiderTrap]

That's pretty close to the formula we followed this season. We came up a game short on the power teams, and unfortunately none of the three we did play were good enough to move the needle on good wins (and we lost two of them anyway).

Cupcakes: NC Central, Georgia State, Hofstra, Bucknell

Mid-majors: Utah State, Drake, Wofford, UNI, Toledo, ODU

Power: Maryland, Mississippi State, NC State

You could argue Hofstra belongs in the mid-major bin, but I opted for the cupcake bin partly because they were the campus game for the Bahamas event and those are typically supposed to be cupcakes. But they were a solid cupcake.

You could also argue ODU belongs in the cupcake bin given their recent history, but they have a strong tradition. So feel free to flip-flop bins with ODU and Hofstra if you like.

Our mid-majors did not pan out for us in terms of wins - we beat Wofford and UNI, but they didn't crack 100 in the BPI. Toledo came out to 74 and we won, but on our home floor. We lost to Utah State on neutral (BPI 87) and Drake (89) on road. Okay if we lose those games - but then we really needed to win Maryland or Miss. St.

Other issue - we didn't win the power games - We beat NC State, but they ended not great for us - coming at 123.

Utah State - 87 BPI - LOSS
Drake - 89 - LOSS
Wofford - 112 - Win
UNI - 104 - WIN
Toledo - 74 - Win

I would say our OOC schedule last year was okay, but it was very hopeful. And we just didn't win enough - plain and simple.

 

[VT4700]

I really don't think we need to worry too much about the OOC schedule. It will have a good mix of power conference teams, quality mid majors, and needed cupcakes like it usually does. Give me maybe 3-4 power conference teams, 4-5 good mid majors, and maybe 5 cupcake types that we should win, and that will be a good schedule. Our OOC schedule has almost always been good enough, but I agree we just haven't won enough of them most years. Our IC record is just as or more important, and 14-4 IC would always go a long way toward an at large bid if we just do okay (beat some good teams, lose to some good teams) in our OOC schedule. Sure, you can say if we schedule really hard, play a bunch of tough OOC games, and win enough of them, that will help us if we go maybe 12-6 IC, but the problem with that is 12-6 might only be 4th or 5th place IC, and we might still be behind some bubble teams IC if we do that. So, the smart way to schedule would be make the schedule "good enough" to make a 14-4 IC record matter. Going 2-2 against Drake, Utah St, Md, and Miss St would have put us 11-2, but going to 10-8 IC like we did would have ruined any chance of an at large. 11-2 OOC with that schedule and 14-4 IC would have put us in great shape at 25-6. Shoot, just beat 1 of the 4 teams we lost to OOC and we are 24-7 if we go 14-4 IC. So, a schedule like last year would always be more than good enough. It would be up to us to win enough of them, and then take care of business at 14-4 or better IC.

Look at Dayton last year. They went 14-4 IC, and were the first team left out because they had 3 horrible OOC losses. Their schedule was not great at all with 7 home cupcakes on there, all of those 235 and up teams, but it was more than good enough. They had a great win against Kansas, and 2 more good wins, but they only went 4-3 against their cupcakes, to go with 4-2 against the other 6 teams. So, even a schedule with a lot of home cupcakes would have been good enough had Dayton just not had so many bad OOC losses.

Also, I don't remember the committee members ever saying teams with OOC schedules around 100 to even as high as 175 or 200 were the reason a team was left out. It is usually the teams with just horrible OOC schedules in the 250 and up range that they comment on, and they also mention bad losses as a reason. So, our schedule will always be fine. Just win enough of them. And, one bad loss max, but preferably zero.

 

[Anachnid]

If you don’t play cupcakes, you won’t have any bad losses. If you want to make and go deep in NCAA tourney play and beat the competition outside of conference. A10 has cupcake teams built in. If you have confidence in your coaching ability and believe in your team then go all in on John Chaney, any team any where. Why not have a badass attitude and still be a gentleman oriented private school?

 

[SpiderTrap]

Now your looking at the JW style of scheduling - play anyone, anywhere, anytime. I don't mind that scheduling mindset, but two things have to happen with that. 1) You better be in reload mode and not rebuild mode. Cause in rebuild mode, you will have some really down years in terms of record. 2) Fans better be understanding - when you schedule like that - you won't pile up the wins, but your resume will be good IF you can just win a few.

People forget that 2004 season our OOC schedule prior to A10 play - we were 7-5. Then before the Kansas game - we were 9-8. But because of the key wins we had and our losses were not that bad - we were still in the mix. And then we caught fire 2nd half of A10 season and the rest was history. So don't expect to be 10-1 entering A10 play, but know - if you 8-4 and have some good wins - you still got a shot.

 

[Anachnid]

I’m getting old. Howmany years has he been here? Has he ever reloaded? Why not get the reputation to play hard games, more kids would be interested. JW always tried to schedule a game in a player’s hometown. What a great conversation starter with an opposing coach with whom you are trying to schedule. It’s not like any one team dominates a home town in recruiting. Would we turn down UNC if they requested to come to Bacote’s hometown?
And if we are 10-1 against cupcakes entering the A10 we would still not be guaranteeing ourselves a bid. We’d be sweating the conference like normal.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I agree - I like the tougher schedule mindset. I would have no problem with it. But I can see why some coaches shy away from it. Harder to explain a 14 win season with a tough schedule than an 19 win season with an easier schedule. Both end up in the same place - no post-season, so to me - whats the difference. Plus I think it helps if it shows your willing to play a national schedule.

I think under Mooney - we rarely leave the east coast. Why not get some games out West, not OOC tourney games - but single games. Lets play Utah State at their place, or call Jenkins and get Minnesota on the road.

 

[SpiderDad75]

I agree - I like the tougher schedule mindset. I would have no problem with it. But I can see why some coaches shy away from it. Harder to explain a 14 win season with a tough schedule than an 19 win season with an easier schedule. Both end up in the same place - no post-season, so to me - whats the difference. Plus I think it helps if it shows your willing to play a national schedule.

I think under Mooney - we rarely leave the east coast. Why not get some games out West, not OOC tourney games - but single games. Lets play Utah State at their place, or call Jenkins and get Minnesota on the road.

Fair argumnet...The biggest problem is getting those bigger schools to play teams like us right? I like the Minnestoa game and someone metinoned Florida bc of Hovde. I know the players wouldn't shy away from it.

 

[Section9.RowD]

Fair argumnet...The biggest problem is getting those bigger schools to play teams like us right? I like the Minnestoa game and someone metinoned Florida bc of Hovde. I know the players wouldn't shy away from it.

Since I my goal is to at least 1/2 of away non-conf games each year, 2nd version of my picks in the next few years is based on interesting/fun destinations - UNLV, UT (Austin is great city), Boston College, UC Boulder, Tulane.

 

[spiderman]

a tough schedule is more fun, but doesn't help chances of dancing at all. you likely lose more games.
if you're good enough you'll win enough regardless of the schedule.
our schedule has never kept us out. losses have kept us out.

 

[urmite]

a tough schedule is more fun, but doesn't help chances of dancing at all. you likely lose more games.
if you're good enough you'll win enough regardless of the schedule.
our schedule has never kept us out. losses have kept us out.

I think that depends on how tough the A-10 is going to be, and How much tougher or weaker you are going to make the OOC.

I’m not sure going 1-8 vs Q1 or 8-1 vs Q4 helps.
I prefer 3 of each Quad with 1 game left over.
And I do think playing the bottom of Q2 is better than playing the top of Q3.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

a tough schedule is more fun, but doesn't help chances of dancing at all. you likely lose more games.
if you're good enough you'll win enough regardless of the schedule.
our schedule has never kept us out. losses have kept us out.

1) Agree with your statement above: if you're good enough you'll win enough regardless of the schedule

2) Generally speaking (unless you are playing Gonzaga every night), most (decently good) teams play to the level of the opponent

Adding the two ideas together, wouldn't that mean that the program will be better off in the long run to schedule up?

 

[spiderman]

... wouldn't that mean that the program will be better off in the long run to schedule up?

not in my opinion. what I meant with #1 is if you're good enough you won't blow it in easier games often. so you don't kill yourself with a bad OOC record. going 12-2 OOC against a softer schedule can be as good or better than going 9-5 vs a tougher schedule.

the good teams we schedule feel they should win against us just like we feel about them. especially at home. and they will win some. we sit here and complain about losses to Drake and Utah St and Maryland and Miss St. well, those are pretty talented teams. they'll beat you some times.

obviously it's best to schedule as tough as possible and still win. scheduling tough and losing doesn't help at all.

 

[VT4700]

Now your looking at the JW style of scheduling - play anyone, anywhere, anytime. I don't mind that scheduling mindset, but two things have to happen with that. 1) You better be in reload mode and not rebuild mode. Cause in rebuild mode, you will have some really down years in terms of record. 2) Fans better be understanding - when you schedule like that - you won't pile up the wins, but your resume will be good IF you can just win a few.

People forget that 2004 season our OOC schedule prior to A10 play - we were 7-5. Then before the Kansas game - we were 9-8. But because of the key wins we had and our losses were not that bad - we were still in the mix. And then we caught fire 2nd half of A10 season and the rest was history. So don't expect to be 10-1 entering A10 play, but know - if you 8-4 and have some good wins - you still got a shot.

I mostly agree, but I can't say we caught fire the 2nd half of the A-10 schedule. We finished 6-2 with no good wins, beating 12-17 Duquesne, 6-22 Fordham, 7-21 St Bona, 10-20 LaSalle, 18-12 GW, and 10-19 UMASS. The losses were to X and a non tourney, but decent Rhode Island. I would also say don't expect to get in the dance now with a similar resume to 2004. The A-10 got 4 teams in that year. We were also helped by St. Joe's being #1 in the country. We certainly can't count on getting 4 teams in now, or having a #1 team out there that makes the conference look better.

We played a real good schedule that year, but we did play some cupcakes too: Miss Valley St, New Hampshire, South Fla, and Hampton. Our other non power conference teams were against San Fran, UAB (loss), VCU, and Manhattan (loss). We played 5 power conference teams: South Car, Wake, Providence, Colorado, and Kansas, and went 2-3 against them.

IC, we went 10-6 and 1-5 against the other A-10 tourney teams St Joe's, X, and Dayton (0-3 against them). Also, we lost to 10-20 LaSalle and Rhode Island.

Overall, a good, solid schedule, but if we had a similar resume now, even with a Kansas win, no way do we get in the dance. And, even if we maybe would, I don't think it would be smart scheduling to have a game at Kansas next year where we would need to beat them to make the dance. We don't beat them in 2004, we don't make the dance.
I remember being really surprised we got in in 2004. I would say keep scheduling like we have been, just win more of them.

 

[97spiderfan]

a tough schedule is more fun, but doesn't help chances of dancing at all.

What?

 

[spiderman]

What?

what was confusing? if we're a really good team, we'll likely do well with a tough schedule but will lose some and may still dance. if we're a really good team, we'll likely do even better with a less taxing schedule and may dance.

most important is being a really good team.

 

[SpiderTrap]

If your a good team and play a light schedule - your expectation is that you will have no bad losses. Because in that type of scheduling - one bad loss can kill your resume. But the thought is - if we are good, we shouldn't lose in an easy schedule. But I find that hard to do because even good teams have an off night, or you play a team that catches fire.

But schedule hard - you have a bad loss, you can make up for with a good win - they can cancel each other out.

Its balance, its luck, and you must be good.

 

[VT4700]

It's very simple. The most important thing is a smart schedule with games against the right mix of teams. Then, you need to win enough of them where the IC record matters. You can't just play all hard teams and assume you are going to beat most them. Who does that? Also, how many would be at home? I don't think a bunch of top 40 type teams are willing to come to our place. So, how is that smart to not only play a ton of tough teams, but play them all away from home? Going 5-8 or 6-7 at best against a top 20 OOC schedule would not be smart. Going around 10-3 against a top 100ish schedule should give you some quality wins and keep you very relevant. That is the way to do it.

 

[VT4700]

If your a good team and play a light schedule - your expectation is that you will have no bad losses. Because in that type of scheduling - one bad loss can kill your resume. But the thought is - if we are good, we shouldn't lose in an easy schedule. But I find that hard to do because even good teams have an off night, or you play a team that catches fire.

But schedule hard - you have a bad loss, you can make up for with a good win - they can cancel each other out.

Its balance, its luck, and you must be good.

I think what many on here are missing is if you don't play an incredibly tough schedule, that doesn't mean you play an easy schedule. You don't have to play a ton of really good teams to have a quality schedule. And, you can almost always survive a bad loss with a top 100ish type of schedule as long as you get a few good wins in there. The 200+ OOC schedules, especially the 250 and up ones, are the ones that grab the committee's attention. Most of the other schedules, especially ones below 150, will have more than enough chances for quality wins on there.

 

[SpiderK]

We can only lose a total of 7 games and still get a sniff of an at large bid. So mix and match those 7 losses as you will, OCC or IC. Any more than 7 losses and we must win the A-10 tournament as usual to get in. I say with this upcoming team, play a confidence building OOC. Hope the heck you get in the top 4 of the A-10 and win 3 in a row.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I think what many on here are missing is if you don't play an incredibly tough schedule, that doesn't mean you play an easy schedule. You don't have to play a ton of really good teams to have a quality schedule. And, you can almost always survive a bad loss with a top 100ish type of schedule as long as you get a few good wins in there. The 200+ OOC schedules, especially the 250 and up ones, are the ones that grab the committee's attention. Most of the other schedules, especially ones below 150, will have more than enough chances for quality wins on there.

Agreed - but I think we rarely schedule hard under Mooney. I think last year was built as a tough schedule from a PR perspective, but really - it was just average. So when we start hearing things like next year will be easier - that makes me think we are going from average to easier.

Guess a good question for the group - when was the last time under Mooney you felt like we had a tough OOC schedule?

 

[Section9.RowD]

Agreed - but I think we rarely schedule hard under Mooney. I think last year was built as a tough schedule from a PR perspective, but really - it was just average. So when we start hearing things like next year will be easier - that makes me think we are going from average to easier.

Guess a good question for the group - when was the last time under Mooney you felt like we had a tough OOC schedule?

COVID year was tougher than last year or at least had some tough games on paper at the start of the season - i.e at Roop (amazing to see that game in person since at the time we all assumed KY was going to be good) and at WV ..

 

[Gallipoli]

I would prefer only cupcakes for out of conference.
For in conference, my preferences would be 6 games against LaSalle, 6 against Fordham and 6 against Duquesne.

 

[VT4700]

Agreed - but I think we rarely schedule hard under Mooney. I think last year was built as a tough schedule from a PR perspective, but really - it was just average. So when we start hearing things like next year will be easier - that makes me think we are going from average to easier.

Guess a good question for the group - when was the last time under Mooney you felt like we had a tough OOC schedule?

You say last year was average, but kenpom had us at 94. I think anything inside of 100 is pretty solid, and, when you factor in 350+ teams and schedules, definitely above average. Some opponents might have done worse than we thought, but they were still quality teams, and overall, we had way fewer 150+ games (only 3 of those) than most teams out there, and 6 of our games were top 100. I would call that a real good schedule, and most importantly, a real smart schedule as far as a tourney bid is concerned.