Most of you are probably asleep right now but when everybody is reading this it will be GAMEDAY! After spending so much time scouting other games I wanted to do my best to give a preview of this big game against Vandy. A lot of people here expecting a win and I think the worst thing we can do is expect to win. Even the good teams should never expect a win against a P5 opponent.
Here we go!
Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0)
Who have they Played?
Vandy has played 2 games so far this season, both at home. They won by 18 against 1-1 SE Missouri State (their 1 win came against Fort Wayne who is 0-3 against D1 teams this year, and they only won by one) and then won by 5 against Texas A&M Corpus Christi who is 0-2 with their other loss coming by 33 points at home to Louisiana Tech.
Key Players?
Vandy is led by 6'6" SO Aaron Nesmith who is averaging 23 points and 5.5 rebounds. He is shooting 59.3% from the field and 55.5% from 3. He has attempted 18 shots from behind the arc and only 9 from inside it, so look for kickouts to him and make sure he doesn't stay hot from 3.
The other two players averaging double-digits are 6'2" JR Saben Lee (18PPG & 6.0APG) and 6'8" SR Clevon Brown (13.5PPG, 8RPG). Lee is shooting just 48.3% from the field and 20% from 3. Brown is shooting 73.3% from the field and is a highly efficient scorer. We need to double him when he gets the ball down low. He has 0 assists and 2 turnovers this year so it looks like once he gets the ball he is either shooting or passing to a man who is not open. In Brown's entire Vandy career he has played 100 games and has 27 assists.
Next man up is Scottie Pippen Jr. who is averaging 8.5 PPG (while shooting 33.3% from the field) with 4 assists per game.
Key Stats?
Vanderbilt has shot 62.5% from the free throw line this season. That is 264th in the country. They only attempt 16 free throws per game which is 248th in the country. How about we get them to the line if they go on a run and make them beat us there?
They are shooting 39.3% from 3 which is 68th in the country and attempting 28 3's per game while attempting 28.5 2's per game. I think a key to this game will be making Vandy attempt 2's while trying to limit the touches deep in the post by Brown. Their overall field goal percentage is 49.6% which is 60th in the country. So they will most likely be able to score pretty easily. Limiting that scoring to inside the arc + limiting offensive boards (more on that to come) will be key here. Vandy may be shooting it well but they aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard with 77 points per game (137th in the country) against poor opponents.
Vandy is averaging 13.5 assists to 12 turnovers while averaging 10.5 steals per game. Richmond is averaging 22 assists, 8 turnovers, and 8 steals. Vandy has 3 players averaging 2+ steals per game while 5 of Richmond's 8 came from Jacob Gilyard. It looks like Vandy has active hands and forces turnovers, but the caveat is that it has come against very bad opponents.
With only a one game sample size it is hard to give much of a preview for the Spiders. Especially since the game went to OT it inflates the stats. With 22 assists the Spiders rank 6th in the country in assists per game, but their AST/TO ratio sits at 2.75 which is 2nd in the nation. Richmond is 7th in the nation in points per game, 36th in field goal percentage, and 15th in 3 point percentage. Just remember that these all look nice and dandy but came in a game where there was virtually no defense being played. Don't expect another 100-98 game here. Richmond is 70.8% from the line this year (143rd) which is not wonderful but miles better than what the mentioned for Vandy.
Biggest Matchup?
Rebounding. Plain and simple. I think we all had a bad taste in our mouths after St. Francis went +11 on the boards and pulled in 15 offensive rebounds against us. It is worth noting that they also had 15 offensive boards against VCU and 12 against Morgan State (who they went +18 against in rebounding differential). St. Francis is currently 35th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game.
Why is this important? (Trust me you'll want to read this next one)
Vandy has lost the rebounding battle in both games this year. They were -3 in both games this year. Vandy also has a total of 19 offensive rebounds this year (9.5 per game) while allowing 23 (11.5 per game). To put this into perspective, in SE Missouri State's game against Fort Wayne (a win) they were -7 in rebound differential, allowed 15 offensive boards, and only had 8 offensive boards of their own. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi lost their home opener against Louisiana Tech by 33 points and only lost the rebounding differential by, you guessed it, -3. Louisiana Tech had 12 offensive boards. Both of Vandy's opponents have allowed fewer offensive boards to Vanderbilt than to SE Missouri State & Louisiana Tech. Well surely you must think that is because Vandy is a superior team who had a much higher shooting percentage. Vandy and LA Tech both shot exactly 50% against Corpus Christi so that rules that out. Vandy shot 9% better from the field against SE MIssouri State than Fort Wayne did, but Fort Wayne only attempted 3 more shots (and had 5 more offensive boards).
Believe it or not Richmond had 33 rebounds in their only game this season (compared to 31 per game for Vandy, but the OT needs to be taken into account) but the Spiders only had 7 offensive rebounds. Can Richmond keep Vandy off the offensive glass and in the 8-10 offensive rebound range, or will they rack up 15+. That should end up the deciding factor as the Spiders cannot afford to have this Vanderbilt team picking up offensive boards and then kicking out to 3 for easy buckets.
Now I know these are small sample sizes as Richmond has played one game and Vanderbilt has only played 2, but I had to go as in-depth as possible with the stats I had.
Here we go!
Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0)
Who have they Played?
Vandy has played 2 games so far this season, both at home. They won by 18 against 1-1 SE Missouri State (their 1 win came against Fort Wayne who is 0-3 against D1 teams this year, and they only won by one) and then won by 5 against Texas A&M Corpus Christi who is 0-2 with their other loss coming by 33 points at home to Louisiana Tech.
Key Players?
Vandy is led by 6'6" SO Aaron Nesmith who is averaging 23 points and 5.5 rebounds. He is shooting 59.3% from the field and 55.5% from 3. He has attempted 18 shots from behind the arc and only 9 from inside it, so look for kickouts to him and make sure he doesn't stay hot from 3.
The other two players averaging double-digits are 6'2" JR Saben Lee (18PPG & 6.0APG) and 6'8" SR Clevon Brown (13.5PPG, 8RPG). Lee is shooting just 48.3% from the field and 20% from 3. Brown is shooting 73.3% from the field and is a highly efficient scorer. We need to double him when he gets the ball down low. He has 0 assists and 2 turnovers this year so it looks like once he gets the ball he is either shooting or passing to a man who is not open. In Brown's entire Vandy career he has played 100 games and has 27 assists.
Next man up is Scottie Pippen Jr. who is averaging 8.5 PPG (while shooting 33.3% from the field) with 4 assists per game.
Key Stats?
Vanderbilt has shot 62.5% from the free throw line this season. That is 264th in the country. They only attempt 16 free throws per game which is 248th in the country. How about we get them to the line if they go on a run and make them beat us there?
They are shooting 39.3% from 3 which is 68th in the country and attempting 28 3's per game while attempting 28.5 2's per game. I think a key to this game will be making Vandy attempt 2's while trying to limit the touches deep in the post by Brown. Their overall field goal percentage is 49.6% which is 60th in the country. So they will most likely be able to score pretty easily. Limiting that scoring to inside the arc + limiting offensive boards (more on that to come) will be key here. Vandy may be shooting it well but they aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard with 77 points per game (137th in the country) against poor opponents.
Vandy is averaging 13.5 assists to 12 turnovers while averaging 10.5 steals per game. Richmond is averaging 22 assists, 8 turnovers, and 8 steals. Vandy has 3 players averaging 2+ steals per game while 5 of Richmond's 8 came from Jacob Gilyard. It looks like Vandy has active hands and forces turnovers, but the caveat is that it has come against very bad opponents.
With only a one game sample size it is hard to give much of a preview for the Spiders. Especially since the game went to OT it inflates the stats. With 22 assists the Spiders rank 6th in the country in assists per game, but their AST/TO ratio sits at 2.75 which is 2nd in the nation. Richmond is 7th in the nation in points per game, 36th in field goal percentage, and 15th in 3 point percentage. Just remember that these all look nice and dandy but came in a game where there was virtually no defense being played. Don't expect another 100-98 game here. Richmond is 70.8% from the line this year (143rd) which is not wonderful but miles better than what the mentioned for Vandy.
Biggest Matchup?
Rebounding. Plain and simple. I think we all had a bad taste in our mouths after St. Francis went +11 on the boards and pulled in 15 offensive rebounds against us. It is worth noting that they also had 15 offensive boards against VCU and 12 against Morgan State (who they went +18 against in rebounding differential). St. Francis is currently 35th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game.
Why is this important? (Trust me you'll want to read this next one)
Vandy has lost the rebounding battle in both games this year. They were -3 in both games this year. Vandy also has a total of 19 offensive rebounds this year (9.5 per game) while allowing 23 (11.5 per game). To put this into perspective, in SE Missouri State's game against Fort Wayne (a win) they were -7 in rebound differential, allowed 15 offensive boards, and only had 8 offensive boards of their own. Texas A&M Corpus-Christi lost their home opener against Louisiana Tech by 33 points and only lost the rebounding differential by, you guessed it, -3. Louisiana Tech had 12 offensive boards. Both of Vandy's opponents have allowed fewer offensive boards to Vanderbilt than to SE Missouri State & Louisiana Tech. Well surely you must think that is because Vandy is a superior team who had a much higher shooting percentage. Vandy and LA Tech both shot exactly 50% against Corpus Christi so that rules that out. Vandy shot 9% better from the field against SE MIssouri State than Fort Wayne did, but Fort Wayne only attempted 3 more shots (and had 5 more offensive boards).
Believe it or not Richmond had 33 rebounds in their only game this season (compared to 31 per game for Vandy, but the OT needs to be taken into account) but the Spiders only had 7 offensive rebounds. Can Richmond keep Vandy off the offensive glass and in the 8-10 offensive rebound range, or will they rack up 15+. That should end up the deciding factor as the Spiders cannot afford to have this Vanderbilt team picking up offensive boards and then kicking out to 3 for easy buckets.
Now I know these are small sample sizes as Richmond has played one game and Vanderbilt has only played 2, but I had to go as in-depth as possible with the stats I had.
