St. Joe's indeed falls to URI, 13-8. So here are the current standings:
6. GW (14-9)
7. Richmond (13-10)
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T-8. St. Joe's (12-11)
T-8. Butler (12-11)
And here is what I think can happen tomorrow:
**If UR wins, they are in as the seventh seed if GW beats La Salle, or in as the sixth seed if GW loses.
**If UR loses, GW becomes a non-factor and there are three relevant scenarios:
1. St.Joe's beats URI, and Butler beats X: Three-way tie for seventh among UR, SJ, BU. Butler did not play either UR or St. Joe's, so no head-to-head tiebreaker. Second tiebreaker is record against common opponents (SLU and Fordham are the only ones). UR gets the final tournament spot with a 4-2 record. Butler at 3-3 and St. Joe's at 2-4.
2. St. Joe's beats URI, and Butler loses to X: UR and SJ tie for seventh, but SJ gets the spot due to 2-1 series win head-to-head. UR out.
3. Butler beats X and St. Joe's loses to URI: UR and Butler tie for seventh, but no head-to-head tiebreaker. Second tiebreaker is record against common opponents (Charlotte, SLU, Fordham, and VCU). Butler gets the spot with a 6-6 record vs. 5-7 for UR. UR out.
So in summary, win and we're in. If we lose, we need Butler and St. Joe's to either both win or both lose.