Scrimmage Game with Va. Union

[urmite]

I think we have different definitions of what a possession is. Here is an article that describes what I am talking about when I say possession:

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/12/21/nylon-calculus-101-possessions/

Looking at the "How do possessions end?" section. I would say the difference is that not all rebounds end the current possession and begin a new one. Defensive rebounds do, but offensive rebounds continue the current possession.

Basically, it is taking turns, so if you alternate, teams can only be 1 apart.

 

[WebSpinner]

am sorry but when a nerd with pen case ensconced in his jc penny shirt, starts off a basketball or any sports short with a nuclear sentence, have to just laugh. numbers are important, can point out some things but the level that some of these guys are going to is just humorous. we have an analytics guy running the houston rockets and have to laugh more than cry when he is interviewed and his philosophy based on just numbers spew out. nice guy but........

 

[localspider]

Possessions versus scoring opportunities. I realized that after I posted.

 

[keefusb]

I generally agree with what 2011 is saying, it does make sense. However, I think it will be difficult for us to maintain the same level of offensive efficiency we had last season without Terry Allen. 2011 can probably bear this out statistically. Conversely, if we can get more offensive production/efficiency from the guys who will replace DT and TD, perhaps it may not be as bad as I think it could be.

The other stat that really jumps out in my mind is how many offensive rebounds we tend to give up, many of those opposing offensive rebounds lead to quick and easy points.

Finally, we need overall defensive improvement. Not sure if our lack of a true rim defender has hurt us or not, but we appear to be poor closers on opposing 3 point shooters, we give up a lot of lane penetration, and then there is the rebounding. But again, if we are allowing easy looks at the basket and easy shots, there won't be a lot of defensive rebounds for us to get in the first place.

We also don't seem to have any true "lock-down" defensive types like we have had in the past. To me, Kwan seems to be our best defensive player, it would be great to have another player emerge as a true defensive stopper.

So I guess I am not as optimistic as others on this board. I think we will struggle to maintain or improve our offensive efficiency at the level we had last season. I also don't see any reason to think we will be significantly better defensively, either. Hope I am wrong, but we will see.

 

[gospidersgo]

Kee I completely understand that argument. To me the simplest way to explain the optimism and hope for improvement by many here is the fact that we are replacing 2 seniors (not including TA in this) who largely underachieved, seemed to regress, did not show the on court leadership we need, etc. Not trying to take a shot at them or insult them, but it was obvious to most that DT and TD weren't getting us where we needed to be.

They are more or less being replaced by DMB and NS, two unknown quantities who we have high hopes for but who also haven't played a minute of college ball yet. If they are even average defensive players and I think they will be, our defense should improve. I guess what I'm saying is we know what we had before, and it wasn't working. We aren't sure what we will have now but at minimum I don't think it can be worse.

 

[Octapod]

Well, I see we are at the start of a new year. Same old optimism, maybe there will be a different result. I don't know how the team will do, I just popped in for a comment on this particular discussion. The main problem with analytic driven sports, is that it leads the teams/competitors towards similar styles of play. The same could be said for rule changes and success, for that matter. Those that have not been following basketball for that long may not really recognize it. But for those of us that have been around for a long time, you know what I am talking about. The style of play keeps moving closer and closer together for all of the teams out there. When that happens, no style is unique. As a result, it becomes even more about the Johnnies and Joes and even less about the Xs and Os. As others have been saying, Mooney's success or failure will be determined by his recruiting ability, plain and simple. No need to run any numbers about that.

 

[SpiderK]

If we can't replace the production that TD and DT were giving us, then we should go to DIII. Replacing TA will have to be by committee. While his defense wasn't that great, he did steal a ball and get a rebound every now and then and scored well at the beginning of the season. The three freshman combined will be much better than 3 combo we lost.

 

[keefusb]

I'd really like to think that (DMB+NS+GG > TA+DT+TD), but given that the group on the left side of the equation is 100% frosh, I'm not convinced that this equation will hold true this coming year, but hopefully will in the future.

 

[spider3309]

am sorry but when a nerd with pen case ensconced in his jc penny shirt, starts off a basketball or any sports short with a nuclear sentence, have to just laugh. numbers are important, can point out some things but the level that some of these guys are going to is just humorous. we have an analytics guy running the houston rockets and have to laugh more than cry when he is interviewed and his philosophy based on just numbers spew out. nice guy but........

This coming from a guy who has 18,400+ posts and not one of them has ever had any substance. Boring and rambling

fan2011, as I have told you before don't let the curmudgeons get you down, you're the best thing to happen to this board in a long time.

 

[LongTimeLurkerFirstTimePoster]

I generally agree with what 2011 is saying, it does make sense. However, I think it will be difficult for us to maintain the same level of offensive efficiency we had last season without Terry Allen. 2011 can probably bear this out statistically. Conversely, if we can get more offensive production/efficiency from the guys who will replace DT and TD, perhaps it may not be as bad as I think it could be.

The other stat that really jumps out in my mind is how many offensive rebounds we tend to give up, many of those opposing offensive rebounds lead to quick and easy points.

Finally, we need overall defensive improvement. Not sure if our lack of a true rim defender has hurt us or not, but we appear to be poor closers on opposing 3 point shooters, we give up a lot of lane penetration, and then there is the rebounding. But again, if we are allowing easy looks at the basket and easy shots, there won't be a lot of defensive rebounds for us to get in the first place.

We also don't seem to have any true "lock-down" defensive types like we have had in the past. To me, Kwan seems to be our best defensive player, it would be great to have another player emerge as a true defensive stopper.

So I guess I am not as optimistic as others on this board. I think we will struggle to maintain or improve our offensive efficiency at the level we had last season. I also don't see any reason to think we will be significantly better defensively, either. Hope I am wrong, but we will see.

KFSB: If you go back and look at the posts from this time last year, I would guess the majority of the posters were asking "How do we replace the KA00 production"? last year that was never an issue. My guess is the offense will be just as efficient as last year without TA.

 

[keefusb]

We got a lot of scoring from K0, but he wasn't particularly efficient (2011?), so ya we discussed replacing his scoring this time last year. Last season, we were one of the top teams in D1 in terms of offensive efficiency, but I believe that was a bit of surprise to many of us here on the discussion board. I think it may be more difficult to maintain that high level of efficiency this coming season, because TA (at least in the first 3/4 of the season) played a significant part in that. If some combination of JJ, DMB, NS and GG can fill that efficiency gap, that's great. I just don't expect three freshman in our system to be able to step right in and maintain that level of offensive efficiency, that's all.

I very much hope I am proven wrong.

 

[MrTbone]

We got a lot of scoring from K0, but he wasn't particularly efficient (2011?), so ya we discussed replacing his scoring this time last year. Last season, we were one of the top teams in D1 in terms of offensive efficiency, but I believe that was a bit of surprise to many of us here on the discussion board. I think it may be more difficult to maintain that high level of efficiency this coming season, because TA (at least in the first 3/4 of the season) played a significant part in that. If some combination of JJ, DMB, NS and GG can fill that efficiency gap, that's great. I just don't expect three freshman in our system to be able to step right in and maintain that level of offensive efficiency, that's all.

I very much hope I am proven wrong.

This "scoring replacement" conversation happens every year. Every year we replace the scoring. It's really that simple.

 

[MountainSpider]

If we have the ball the other team can't score. That's what offensive rebounds mean to a defense.

Each team gets the same number of possessions in college basketball. If we hold onto the ball longer it just means both teams will have fewer total possessions at the end of the game. We will have still had the same number of possessions though (one team sometimes gets a single additional possession).

An offensive rebound can be worth more than simply "holding onto the ball longer". Sure, if it is followed by another miss and a defensive rebound than that is all that has happened. But it can also be followed by a made basket, and your analysis ignores that possibility.

There are no scenarios in which getting an offensive rebound hurts your chances to win, and there are no scenarios where an offensive rebound increases the points your opponent will put on the board.

 

[spiderman]

offensive rebounds are great. we averaged about 8 per game while our opponents averaged 11. part of that difference is our offense is spread more than most. the rest of it is an attempt to limit transition baskets, which we normally do well.

 

[WebSpinner]

MAC, even when attacking me personally, you have to make it about numbers. thanks for the compliment, here's to you and yours as well.

 

[fan2011]

An offensive rebound can be worth more than simply "holding onto the ball longer". Sure, if it is followed by another miss and a defensive rebound than that is all that has happened. But it can also be followed by a made basket, and your analysis ignores that possibility.

There are no scenarios in which getting an offensive rebound hurts your chances to win, and there are no scenarios where an offensive rebound increases the points your opponent will put on the board.

I am not sure what you are trying to say, my analysis in no way ignores the fact that offensive rebounds create additional scoring opportunities. But why should the number of offensive rebounds we get be a factor when evaluating our defense? Of course the number of offensive rebounds we allow is a factor (though a relatively small one), but I fail to see how the number of offensive rebounds we pull down has any effect on our defense.

 

[spider3309]

MAC, even when attacking me personally, you have to make it about numbers. thanks for the compliment, here's to you and yours as well.

So you call somebody a nerd, and you worry about being attacked personally? A grown man with 18,000 posts on a message board. You're something else, you know that?

 

[Rivercup]

Re: the 3 frosh vs the departed seniors, if you have seen the frosh play, you know that they are special. I did not see the final 10 minutes of the scrimmage against VU when GG played well. During the first two 20 minute periods he played like a freshman. However, both NS and DMB played more like seniors. And by the way, they can both play defense. TA was a great player for us and TD and DT played hard but were offensive liabilities. All in all, this year represents an upgrade and i believe that all will agree once the season starts.

 

[keefusb]

I'm not going to make any predictions on scoring replacement or ability to match last year's offensive efficiency based on how our freshmen played in a controlled scrimmage environment against a mid-table D2 program. They may turn out to be special, and I really hope they are, but we have not really had an impact freshman in our program since K0. So I'm reserving judgement. All I can say is that it will not be easy to sustain the same level of offensive efficiency that we had last season.

As Bush 41 used to say "Not doin' it".

 

[Eight Legger]

Let's just try not to lose our first game of the year, at home, again this season. That's a good starting point.

 

[Spideroldie]

These freshmen really are good. Since I have not seen anyone else post this idea as yet, let me be the first to suggest that our best line-up and best bench will be as follows:
Starters, Buck and Sherod at "forwards," with the other three starters already established (TJ, KF and SDJ). Buck and Sherod will not only provide more offense but they will also rebound better than any alternative forwards.
Bench: Golden, JJ, MW and Kwesi.

We might experience a few minor growing pains during the non-conference season, but would still do fine, and this bench would have reasonable experience and versatility. I believe that Buck and Sherod (as starters and 20+ minute players) give us the best chance to win the conference and land an NCAA bid, which we all would agree is long overdue. I hope it does not take too many games for everyone to conclude that we will only be as successful this year as the freshmen are, and that playing them is the only way for them to learn the systems and improve.

 

[spiderman]

not that it matters who starts, but I doubt we'll see that lineup together much.
man, that would be going small.

 

[SpiderK]

not that it matters who starts, but I doubt we'll see that lineup together much.
man, that would be going small.

We blew big leads and lost close games last year. This year we are blessed with two "go to" options, inside and out, with SDJ and TJ. Not to mention two top notch scorers that are not afraid to shoot the ball in NS and DB. Offense will not be our problem. As a HUGE bonus, 3 of these 4 are excellent free throw shooters and TJ is adequate. We are NOT going to ever rebound under Mooney, so we have to be able to finish close games with ball handling, and free throws. We could NOT do that last year.

 

[Spideroldie]

+1. Both Buck and Sherod are physically strong and can rebound very well for guys 6-4, and we will want them in there at the end of games, for the reasons noted above.

 

[MrTbone]

I see very little chance that we'd go with a lineup where 4 of our 5 players are 6'4" or shorter. I'm certainly optimistic about the newcomers but let's not substitute hope for practicality.

 

[ur2K]

I think I'm going to enjoy watching this team much more than last year's version

 

[97spiderfan]

I think I'm going to enjoy watching this team much more than last year's version

That is a low bar but agreed.

 

[MrTbone]

I enjoyed watching the team for the first half of the season (mostly). Then it became a Bataan death march.

 

[Ulla1]

I enjoyed watching the team for the first half of the season (mostly). Then it became a Bataan death march.

T, agree that it was painful. While it remains to be seen, I think this edition has much better senior leadership and chemistry. OSC

 

[CarolinaSpider]

I enjoyed watching the team for the first half of the season (mostly). Then it became a Bataan death march.

T it is still a mystery as to what happened between WV, Cal games and then the start of A10 play. For sure it was two different teams. I have yet to hear
theories on this from the board.

 

[keefusb]

I think 2 things happened last season, TJC went into a bit of a 3-point slump, and we just completely forgot how to play defense. Combined with only having 2 or 3 guys on the floor who were scoring threats, and our typical crummy rebounding, and you get what we got last season.

 

[MrTbone]

I think Keef is generally on point although we are always bad rebounders so I never hold that up as the reason we fare poorly. Probably death by a thousand paper cuts. The single biggest issue was poor defense though. Interestingly, the way we started the season with JMU was a microcosm of how we ended it over multiple weeks of conference play.

One thing is certain, our play at home this year better be scads improved, I can take some losses, but not tons of them live at the RC.

 

[fan2011]

I think Keef is generally on point although we are always bad rebounders so I never hold that up as the reason we fare poorly. Probably death by a thousand paper cuts. The single biggest issue was poor defense though. Interestingly, the way we started the season with JMU was a microcosm of how we ended it over multiple weeks of conference play.

One thing is certain, our play at home this year better be scads improved, I can take some losses, but not tons of them live at the RC.

More a10 away wins than home wins last year. Very strange.

 

[MrTbone]

Strange indeed.

 

[SFspidur]

Our home schedule was a bit tougher than our away schedule last year, but still...have to defend home court.

 

[97spiderfan]

Last year, obviously we had some major defensive issues, but I look at senior leadership as a major cause of the season falling apart.

Terry was dealing with some family health issues, Deion just plain was not very good, but to me the mystery of last year was Trey Davis. He was just a shadow of himself most of last year. A guy who prided himself on giving 110% every game, suddenly was just like every other guy in effort. I don't know if there was something physical bothering or mental or both, but just was not the same player.

Unfortunately, the real court leaders of last year's team, TJ and SDJ deferred to this senior leadership. I feel confident that our senior leadership this year is going to be much-much different and much-much better than last year.
I know our stat guy can't analyze things like leadership, but to me that was a huge factor last year.

 

[Ulla1]

97, agree that it was painful. While it remains to be seen, I think this edition has much better senior leadership and chemistry. OSC

 

[Spideroldie]

I have not seen or heard enough to be sure about either senior leadership or chemistry. However, the odds favor a big improvement in both areas. I have also heard good things about Buckingham's leadership skills, and expect that the other two freshmen will also be good role models and leaders, based on their reputations. To me, this spells a huge upgrade in leadership overall, which spells improved chemistry and W/L record.

Some posters above have suggested that our three incoming freshmen are unlikely to be able to replace the three departed starters of TA, TD and DT. I would suggest that these posters have either not personally seen these freshmen play or have not checked out their resumes. IF GIVEN A CHANCE TO PLAY (and we do not have injuries), these freshmen will be far stronger than the players they replace. Mortal lock. But that will affect our success ONLY if they get a chance to prove it... I just hope we give them that chance.

 

[SpiderK]

I have not seen or heard enough to be sure about either senior leadership or chemistry. However, the odds favor a big improvement in both areas. I have also heard good things about Buckingham's leadership skills, and expect that the other two freshmen will also be good role models and leaders, based on their reputations. To me, this spells a huge upgrade in leadership overall, which spells improved chemistry and W/L record.

Some posters above have suggested that our three incoming freshmen are unlikely to be able to replace the three departed starters of TA, TD and DT. I would suggest that these posters have either not personally seen these freshmen play or have not checked out their resumes. IF GIVEN A CHANCE TO PLAY (and we do not have injuries), these freshmen will be far stronger than the players they replace. Mortal lock. But that will affect our success ONLY if they get a chance to prove it... I just hope we give them that chance.

Mortal Lock is right. These 3 are better than who they are replacing already. Attitude!!!!!!

 

[Ulla1]

Oldie, based on the scrimmage and statements from Coach Mooney, the freshmen WILL play. OSC