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[spiderman]

to me the reason we might not finish top 5 is that we might not be any better defensively. hopefully we are, but adding Nick and Blake to the rotation could be a net negative defensively.
the entire team needs to focus on getting better on that side of the court.

 

[MrTbone]

+1 to s-man. We will not get better if we don't improve on D. I don't know that it matters what system we run, regardless of the approach we need to improve drastically. D has been pretty poor for 3 straight years, so I'm not hopeful that we've really sorted this out yet.

 

[PhillySpider]

to me the reason we might not finish top 5 is that we might not be any better defensively. hopefully we are, but adding Nick and Blake to the rotation could be a net negative defensively.
the entire team needs to focus on getting better on that side of the court.

ding ding ding . . . . we have a winner.

The slip in the program has been much more pronounced on D than on offense. Andre should be ahead of Jake in the rotation for this reason, and I am not at all sure what to do with a post-ACL NIck, because the pre-ACL Nick struggled on D.

So much of everyone's analysis on here looks only at offense. We have been a bad to god awful defensive group for a few years. A number of our rotation players are very bad defensively and a few others are barely passable. We don't have an above average defender in the group in my opinion (and no, Jacobs steals do not make him a good defender). Add in a "difficult to master" (carefully selected non-offensive words - - I would rather have said "outdated and crappy") defensive scheme and its really hard to see much progress on that side of the ball. In fact, most everyone on here is predicting our best on ball defender (Andre) to fall significantly, if not completely, out of the rotation. And nothing indicates being any better at rebounding either (yes, we have a few guys who will be a year older/ bigger (we would hope) etc. - - but that never translates to improved rebounding for us). Again we have been bad at this for years!

So its hard for to imagine we will be so much better on offense (where we weren't actually all that awful) that we can overcome being pretty terrible at the other 2 facets of the game. My hope (but without any realistic (or even faint expectation) is that we put in a new defensive system, designed to take advantage of what will be quick guards (assuming Blake starts) and somehow hides some of our deficiencies. Something either along the lines of the packline or, the total opposite, something more aggressive with tons of traps and rotations etc. that prevent people from just setting up and attacking us patiently which all too often leads to easy baskets or easy put-backs as we end up with guards trying to box out forwards etc.).

We'll be better because we'll be better offensively and with a few more options won't have to ride struggling starters every night, but if we are playing a better schedule (as hyped), I have a tough time seeing that convert to significantly more wins.

 

[spiderman]

I'm in the Francis camp. I think Andre will bring his energy off the bench. he and Woj will have their roles, but I think Francis will prove to be the better player.

 

[Eight Legger]

(and no, Jacobs steals do not make him a good defender).

Curious to hear what you mean here. Are you saying that his steals don't make him an all-around better defensive player or that they don't help us prevent the other team from scoring?

I think I would sort of agree with you in one sense (i.e., just because he can get a few steals doesn't inherently mean he's a great on-ball defender, especially against someone a foot taller, for example) but disagree on another (if he gets four steals in a game, theoretically he just prevented the other team from making four three-pointers and saved us 12 points).

I feel like we need some analysis from 2011 here...

 

[VT4700]

I'm in the Francis camp. I think Andre will bring his energy off the bench. he and Woj will have their roles, but I think Francis will prove to be the better player.

Also, I think Blake will be better defensively than people think. He and Jacob should be able to make things pretty tough for opposing lead guards, but no question our overall defense needs to improve dramatically. We saw some signs of that toward the end of last year, so hopefully we can carry some of that over to this year.

I think just winning some games early and having a positive feeling about the season could go a long way toward making us better defensively because sometimes it is mental. The better you feel about your game and the team, the more focus you will have defensively. Most every player, especially the scorers out there, will tell you just that.

 

[spider23]

I'm going to have to disagree that having happy players makes you better defensively. Having a good scheme, athletic tough minded players, and a philosophy that is taught and part of the culture from day 1 of practice makes you good defensively. There is a reason Beilein brought in Yaklich at Michigan, he saw it was a weakness and smartly hired someone that could help with it.

 

[VT4700]

Curious to hear what you mean here. Are you saying that his steals don't make him an all-around better defensive player or that they don't help us prevent the other team from scoring?

I think I would sort of agree with you in one sense (i.e., just because he can get a few steals doesn't inherently mean he's a great on-ball defender, especially against someone a foot taller, for example) but disagree on another (if he gets four steals in a game, theoretically he just prevented the other team from making four three-pointers and saved us 12 points).

I feel like we need some analysis from 2011 here...

Jacob's steals definitely make him a better defender, especially when factoring in that lots of his steals lead to easy baskets for us. And, I haven't seen too many times when his size has been a factor defensively. I do agree with most on here that he should not be playing 40 minutes a game for us. Just giving him 2-3 minutes of rest each half could actually make him even better defensively than he already is because a fresher Jacob could put more pressure on the opposing PG. He is quick enough to be like Kihei Clark defensively, and Clark is one of the best on the ball defenders out there.

 

[wr70beh]

Our offense, while way better than the defense, isn't good enough to outscore opponents on a regular basis. Other teams in the league will just plan for our one dimensional attack, and succeed more than not.

Again, Mooney isn't capable of coaching a run and gun Paul Westhead type offense, and he's never preached defense, despite being from the Princeton mold. It's going to be a long year, folks.

 

[fan2011]

The opposite argument is that it is "all recruiting."

It has to be a combination of the players and the system, and the second half adjustments. We are just too easy to come back against. The odds of us losing all of those games (not including Longwood) is .000000000026975. That should have been the odds of Mooney retaining his job.

That's not how probability works.

You can ask, what is the probability of losing 8 games last season in which we had an 85% chance to win at some point? (Longwood, Wyoming, Old Dominions, Duquesne, St. Joes, La Salle, Davidson, St. Louis). Choosing a probability threshold such as 85% is necessary to make the type of argument you are making, and 85% gives your argument in particular the most favorable position.

The total number of games in which we had an 85% win probability at some point last season was 21 (the 13 wins plus the 8 losses listed above). We won 13 instead of 21*0.85 ~18. You have asserted this difference between expected and observed wins is due to a systematic error in the win probability model (it does not account for Mooney's bad coaching.) How can we tell if the difference is due to randomness (sometimes you get 5 heads in a row when flipping coins), or some systematic effect (Mooney's poor coaching)?

The variance of a binomial random variable with probability p is np(1-p) where n is the number of independent trials (games). The standard deviation is therefore sqrt(np(1-p)). For us this is sqrt(21*0.85(1-0.85)) ~ 1.64. The observed number of wins in games where Richmond was given an 85% win probability at some point was ~3 standard deviation below expectation. This happens 0.13% of the time randomly, roughly 340,000 times more often than your method of multiplying probabilities together yields (3.83E-7% if you give us a 98% max win probability for Longwood) but still below what is generally considered to be random chance (5% for most people). Using the 85% win probability threshold does show evidence of a systematic effect.

Using other probability thresholds produces different results though. For example, if you choose to look at games with a win probability of 90% at some point, we only performed less than 1 standard deviation worse than expected, pretty far from being statistically significant evidence of systematic error in the model (due to Mooney's poor coaching or otherwise). To be sure of a systematic error in the ESPN win probability model I would want to look at many more games than just a single season.

 

[MrTbone]

I got a 740 on my math SAT and still have pretty much no clue about what just happened above.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

I got a 740 on my math SAT and still have pretty much no clue about what just happened above.

The removal of all fun from the thread.

 

[fan2011]

Curious to hear what you mean here. Are you saying that his steals don't make him an all-around better defensive player or that they don't help us prevent the other team from scoring?

I think I would sort of agree with you in one sense (i.e., just because he can get a few steals doesn't inherently mean he's a great on-ball defender, especially against someone a foot taller, for example) but disagree on another (if he gets four steals in a game, theoretically he just prevented the other team from making four three-pointers and saved us 12 points).

I feel like we need some analysis from 2011 here...

My guess is that steals are the highest value defensive play (more so than a defensive rebound, charge drawn, other forced turnover, or basket allowed) since they deny a scoring opportunity to the opponent and seem the most likely to lead to a high value fast break possession. I don't have any data to back that up though, and it is hard to compare/measure the effects of Jacob's steal and non-steal defensive plays.

As a though experiment, if Jacob gets 4 steals per game, and steals increase the value of subsequent possessions by 0.5 points (which is a lot), that means Jacob's steals would be valued at roughly +6.4 points over the course of the game (opponent possession that end in steals are worth 0, instead of ~1.1 on average). Does his presence on the court give opponents 2 or 3 extra baskets per game?

Of course that is just considering his defense. His impact on offense is huge and needs to be considered as well.

 

[spiderman]

2011 after a post on statistics ...

 

[Gospiders06]

We can look at numbers all day. When you get beat by Longwood and Hampton on your home floor should end any discussion. Two years it was Delaware and Jacksonville State. Could careless how close the games were or if someone else was playing. We lost the game. Participation trophies don't exist.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I am hoping to just chalk it up to a bum groin that never really healed, but Jacob could NOT stay in front of people the last 1/4 of the season. It was really bad. So his steals were anticipation (his greatest defensive skill), but any time he was ball defending straight up, it was terrible.

 

[DTSpider]

I am hoping to just chalk it up to a bum groin that never really healed, but Jacob could NOT stay in front of people the last 1/4 of the season. It was really bad. So his steals were anticipation (his greatest defensive skill), but any time he was ball defending straight up, it was terrible.

Agreed. The games I watched he got beat off the ball and would swipe for a steal. He forced some steals but otherwise the defense broke down. Next defender rotated over and then kicked to open 3 for the other team (or no one rotated and easy layup). Seems hard to say but felt like the 3 steals came at the cost of 10 easy baskets. Then again, with the way we played defense we may have given up easy baskets anyway.

 

[SpiderDaMan]

<==========!

2011 after a post on statistics ...

 

[Spider2020]

I am hoping to just chalk it up to a bum groin that never really healed, but Jacob could NOT stay in front of people the last 1/4 of the season. It was really bad. So his steals were anticipation (his greatest defensive skill), but any time he was ball defending straight up, it was terrible.

I noticed he often leaves his man/zone, if they don’t have the ball, to go hunt for a steal. He gets extra steals this way but also gives up some easy buckets. Personally I’d rather have him stay with his man and get 1-2 steals per game than have him play risky and give up buckets in order to get ~4 steals per game.

 

[BuckinghamPalace]

I am hoping to just chalk it up to a bum groin that never really healed, but Jacob could NOT stay in front of people the last 1/4 of the season. It was really bad. So his steals were anticipation (his greatest defensive skill), but any time he was ball defending straight up, it was terrible.

He is working hard to compensate for his 5'9 height. Small guards tend to have problems on the defensive end but being a pickpocket is not one of the issues. Small quick guards are usually great when it comes to steals.

 

[spiderman]

I totally agree that his groin probably wasn't 100%.

 

[UR80sfan]

I am hoping to just chalk it up to a bum groin that never really healed, but Jacob could NOT stay in front of people the last 1/4 of the season. It was really bad. So his steals were anticipation (his greatest defensive skill), but any time he was ball defending straight up, it was terrible.

You should contact the A10 and tell them he doesn't deserve to be 1st team A10 defense as a sophomore. You seemed to be more informed them.

 

[spider23]

I am not commenting on Gilyard's defense, but this used to drive me crazy watching Rajon Rondo, he would let his man go right by him every time - and he would get praised for his defense.

Bottom line is the entire team needs to pick it up on the defensive end. That starts with not letting any straight line drives by the dribbler. Both Gilly, Francis, and whoever is out there have the ability to keep the dribbler in front of them, if the coach is enforcing this concept and the players have the desire. If Kyle Guy were to let his guy go by, I guarantee Tony Bennett would not have it for one play. That is up to Mooney to change the defensive mindset. Maybe the newly elevated assistant can do this?

 

[97spiderfan]

You should contact the A10 and tell them he doesn't deserve to be 1st team A10 defense as a sophomore. You seemed to be more informed them.

Guys who get a lot of steals, just like guys who block a lot of shots, get a lot of attention for being great defenders because of the highlight real nature of their defense. That does not mean they are all great defenders though.

 

[VT4700]

I totally agree that his groin probably wasn't 100%.

And he still played 40 minutes some games, and busted his butt every single minute he was out there. We had some defensive issues, but not because of Jacob.

 

[MrTbone]

And he still played 40 minutes some games, and busted his butt every single minute he was out there. We had some defensive issues, but not because of Jacob.

We were 271 in defensive efficiency, I think everyone shares some responsibility for that, even Jacob. But he wasn’t the worst offender by most measures.

 

[VT4700]

We were 271 in defensive efficiency, I think everyone shares some responsibility for that, even Jacob. But he wasn’t the worst offender by most measures.

I hear you, and agree everyone can improve when a team is ranked that low, but I think most of our defensive issues last year were not Jacob related.

 

[MrTbone]

I hear you, and agree everyone can improve when a team is ranked that low, but I think most of our defensive issues last year were not Jacob related.

Relatively speaking, yes.

 

[97spiderfan]

Good defense starts with denying your man dribble penetration. Our guards have not been able to do consistenty for several years and that includes Gilyard.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

Good defense starts with denying your man dribble penetration. Our guards have not been able to do consistenty for several years and that includes Gilyard.

+1

 

[GKiller]

So Jacob is all a10 D, let the goose loose is close to being elite defender per Mooney so he’s at least good now, and the 30 sec shot clock we were told by Mooney was really going to help us defensively. So who is really bad on D? Or is it coaching?

 

[SpiderDaMan]

So Jacob is all a10 D, let the goose loose is close to being elite defender per Mooney so he’s at least good now, and the 30 sec shot clock we were told by Mooney was really going to help us defensively. So who is really bad on D? Or is it coaching?

Less seconds having to defend has got to be a positive. CM is a genius.