Selfishly from a UR perspective - Mooney and team seem to do better when expectations are lower. I don't remember many times when we have been selected as a top 2-3 team in the A10 and live up to that. We seem to do better when selected lower and ahcieve higher results.
It just feels that way because we are rarely picked high and in 20-21 and 21-22 because we underperformed greatly in reg season. Nerd alert I've tracked it. in 20 years (counting this year it's obvious we won't be picked high officially in a10 poll) we've been picked top 3 only 4 times. 4 for 20. 2 were the back to back ncaa years. Picked 3rd both years, finished 3rd. 20-21 picked 1st finished 8th. 21-22 picked 2nd finished 6th. Gross, no doubt underperformed most of those 2 years. But...ultimately in 2022 we made made NCAA & beat Iowa which is what matters most. so 4 years picked top 4, made ncaa in 3. That's good u take it.
But as we know we've never made NCAA under Mooney any other season. So what that means is we rarely outperform expectations. In fact in last 15 years we've done it 3 times total. a few ties in there of course. Mooney beat expectations his 3rd & 4th years here when finishing 7th. We were picked 11/12/12 hist first 3 and finished 12th his 1st two years.
Since the back to back NCAAs, we are 3 for 13 (poll vs. finish). Last year was easily the biggest outlier. 11th to 1st. I hope its a trend. & I think consensus here is we should be picked higher than we will be, and finish higher than picked, so nothing wrong with hope for a repeat. Last season proved u can make a huge jump but definitely an outlier and would be very unusual to do it again. Not us specifically, that goes for any team in that situation. Not sustainable. Richmond imo isn't viewed as a reload program because we never do it.
I've said this before but when u have a 20 year coach, u r coming off a 1st place reg season, and think of yourself as 1 of the top programs in all the nation, that team will never ever be picked where we will. No team in any league imo. Even in the new portal era with turnover. There's disconnect on how we view ourselves and how others view us. It doesn't help that we normally give off the little ol Richmond leafy campus its amazing we compete vibe. Frankly I'd go with hey it's contract extension time so we must be 1 of the top programs in nation vibe.
People can have their own takeaways from all that. But its data. Mine is clearly we are rarely picked high. & when we are picked high it's the ONLY times we make NCAA. A couple years had chances but we didn't make it. We want to be picked high. I grant u that a lot of these ppl making predictions don't know any more than we do, & we could predict just as well. But fact is data says our odds are a lot better when we're expected to be better. So in reality everyone should want high expectations. This thought that low expectations traditionally works for us and provides a chip on the shoulder? Fallacy.