Mooney's odds of surviving

[mcspider]

I have no faith that he will be gone following this season. I suspect that something will be said or done to let him know that more is needed. And I'm betting he is given a statement of needing to improve without any specifics of what kind of improvement is required to keep his job. That and/or he will not be given that one year contract extension. At this point I think we can't help but be better next year. But while I would love to believe it will be good enough to make the NCAA tournament, I just can't see that.

 

[spider23]

I have no faith that he will be gone following this season. I suspect that something will be said or done to let him know that more is needed. And I'm betting he is given a statement of needing to improve without any specifics of what kind of improvement is required to keep his job. That and/or he will not be given that one year contract extension. At this point I think we can't help but be better next year. But while I would love to believe it will be good enough to make the NCAA tournament, I just can't see that.

This is the nightmare scenario I have been envisioning as well, also the most likely scenario. I can't wait for all the posts next year touting HIS greatness because we won 17 games.

 

[Spider B]

Unless we figure out how to play defense, we won’t win 17 games next year.

 

[SpiderK]

Barring FBI intervention, Mooney will be back next year. Just my guess.

 

[wr70beh]

Attendance is up and we beat VCU twice.

Chris Mooney ain’t going anywhere.

The attendance numbers are cooked books. If you're letting in a bunch of heavily discounted ticket holders, it may look good to have butts in seats (keeping up with VCU), but the bottom line takes a hit due to the lower ticket revenue.

 

[I-M-UR]

Air Force Falcons, 2004-2007
2004 - Made NCAA
2006 - Made NCAA
2007 - Advanced to NIT Final Four

2005 - Chris Mooney was head coach.

This is what we have to look forward to.

Odd? if you go to AF website and look at archives, they don't list the 2004/05 and 2005/06 season?

 

[I-M-UR]

The attendance numbers are cooked books. If you're letting in a bunch of heavily discounted ticket holders, it may look good to have butts in seats (keeping up with VCU), but the bottom line takes a hit due to the lower ticket revenue.

I agree plus the inviting local elementary and middle schools in mass for a number of game can really skew those numbers

 

[Not-A-Homer]

I have no faith that he will be gone following this season. I suspect that something will be said or done to let him know that more is needed. And I'm betting he is given a statement of needing to improve without any specifics of what kind of improvement is required to keep his job. That and/or he will not be given that one year contract extension. At this point I think we can't help but be better next year. But while I would love to believe it will be good enough to make the NCAA tournament, I just can't see that.

Even though it saddens me as a competitive fan, I agree completely! He will be back and we will relive all of these threads again next year.

 

[97spiderfan]

I don't think the next 3 games matter that much in the grand scheme. Hardt and the decision makers should be looking at the big picture and long term health of the program to make this decision. A small 3 game sample size shouldn't move the needle too much if they are looking at the big picture.

 

[spiderman]

these games matter to me. if he's lost the team, then he's no lock to be back despite the buyout. I don't think he's lost the team though. we'll see.

a lot of similarities to Hoosiers here, lol. under-performing team, no bench, fans calling for coach's head ...

 

[AnnapSpider]

A surefire way CM can save his job is to get Grant's brother to drop his commitment
to a very bad Pitt program and join us. (yes-I think they are worse than us).

 

[Captain Anderson]

these games matter to me. if he's lost the team, then he's no lock to be back despite the buyout. I don't think he's lost the team though. we'll see.

a lot of similarities to Hoosiers here, lol. under-performing team, no bench, fans calling for coach's head ...

How would we know if a coach has "lost" a team? The kids are competitors and they are going to play hard the rest of the season (Doesn't mean they well always play well or win). It's not like we are going to see a player quit mid game or refuse to check into the game. If a player dives for a loose ball we can say "hey, look he's playing hard for Coach still" and if we give up 100 points we can say the "kids have quit on Coach". Spiderman, I'm not trying to pick on you at all. I think the glass half full folks would pull optimism from a few wins to close out the year while the glass half empty folks are going to point to our overall record this year. Either way I think Mooney will be back for at least two more years. That's just how we roll.

 

[spiderman]

I agree. I think those "demanding" change aren't being realistic with the financial side of things. our endowment isn't writing that check. I doubt anyone on this board is either.

as for losing the team, I know it when I see it. I agree the right kind of kid never will, no matter what. and I agree we seem to have the right kind of kid. so I don't expect to see it.

 

[mcspider]

The financial aspect of cutting ties is the price of doing business the second you start the concept of a one year extension each year so that the coach can say "See I am here for 4 years". If that is indeed what last year's extension was concerning. I already believe that he will be here next year at least. I am very interested to see if he gets that one year extension again.

 

[Octapod]

I think you will see some assistants exit the program, whether forced or not. As for Mooney and his program, the best way I can word it is this:

The program is in need of change. People can debate what change means. Mooney needs to decide if he wants to be part of that change, or not. If he thinks that change is not needed, then it is time for him to move on, plain and simple. The current profile of the university most likely means no firing. Instead, Mooney and UR will part ways when his contract ends.

 

[SpiderGuy]

The financial aspect of cutting ties is the price of doing business the second you start the concept of a one year extension each year so that the coach can say "See I am here for 4 years". If that is indeed what last year's extension was concerning. I already believe that he will be here next year at least. I am very interested to see if he gets that one year extension again.

Seems a coach should earn a one year extension, or are extensions handed out like participation trophies?

 

[Eight Legger]

If Hardt gives him any kind of extension on the heels of this season, there should be an FBI investigation.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I think odds are 90% he stays. I can't see Hardt firing the most high-profile athletic department employee after "officially" observing for 2 months, whether warranted or not.

 

[32counter]

The attendance numbers are cooked books. If you're letting in a bunch of heavily discounted ticket holders, it may look good to have butts in seats (keeping up with VCU), but the bottom line takes a hit due to the lower ticket revenue.

None of this matters.

 

[VT_Spider]

I think odds are 90% he stays. I can't see Hardt firing the most high-profile athletic department employee after "officially" observing for 2 months, whether warranted or not.

He has only personally observed him for two months but it's not hard at all to look at his overall body of work over 13 years.

 

[I-M-UR]

I agree. I think those "demanding" change aren't being realistic with the financial side of things. our endowment isn't writing that check. I doubt anyone on this board is either.

as for losing the team, I know it when I see it. I agree the right kind of kid never will, no matter what. and I agree we seem to have the right kind of kid. so I don't expect to see it.

First does anyone really know what the buy our provisions are? Secondly, it's a risk you take when you offer a 10 year contract. Which again I can't believe Miller was dumb enough to sign a 10 year contract that didn't make some allowance for it going bad. Lastly, would Mooney have applied the same loyalty had he, say gone to three straight NCAAs after the Sweet 16 year appearance and been approached by other Power Conference teams?

As far as the players, who knows what goes on in their minds or why, but we can't let the program continue to slide because we're afraid of what any particular player in any particular year may or may not do.

 

[MrTbone]

as for losing the team, I know it when I see it. I agree the right kind of kid never will, no matter what. and I agree we seem to have the right kind of kid. so I don't expect to see it.

I don't think we can dismiss the losing the team argument when you have a mid-season departure such as Solly's. While I don't know that his particular case is emblematic of "losing the team", I suspect very few of us have enough insight or perceptiveness to know if our players are losing faith or are totally fine.

The guys are still playing hard, I don't really worry about those 7 guys who are seeing most of the floor time. I worry more about guys 8-12 as we need that size in our lineup stat.

 

[Eight Legger]

A surefire way CM can save his job is to get Grant's brother to drop his commitment
to a very bad Pitt program and join us. (yes-I think they are worse than us).

This would go a long way in my book.

 

[SFspidur]

That's a really tall order considering he's signed, not just committed.

 

[Rivercup]

I think you will see some assistants exit the program, whether forced or not. As for Mooney and his program, the best way I can word it is this:

The program is in need of change. People can debate what change means. Mooney needs to decide if he wants to be part of that change, or not. If he thinks that change is not needed, then it is time for him to move on, plain and simple. The current profile of the university most likely means no firing. Instead, Mooney and UR will part ways when his contract ends.

Great post! I agree that change is needed and will be surprised if we don't have some changes at the assistant level.

 

[spiderstudent17]

A surefire way CM can save his job is to get Grant's brother to drop his commitment
to a very bad Pitt program and join us. (yes-I think they are worse than us).

Bryce signed a contract. Only way he can get out of the contract (without losing eligibility) is if Pitt fired Stallings. Then Bryce could have the option to go to another school. Stallings is in his second - albeit terrible - year with Pitt. They probably give him one more year

 

[spiderstudent17]

So I understand your premise but it’s pre-Hardt thinking. Keith Gill was not renewed for reasons mostly to do with a lackadaisical attitude around how we run our athletics. I don’t think you’ll see the same thing with Hardt. Time will tell, including some strong indicators after the A10 tournament.

I do agree with the second sentiment about dreaming big. I am not sure you’re likely to get this though, I think that kind of mandate comes from the BoT, not the president or the AD, and ours doesn’t seem particularly oriented to dream that way.

I agree that the majority of my sentiment has stemmed from the Keith Gill era. I am cautiously optimistic with Hardt, but he can only do so much. Athletic department, President, and the Board of Trustees, have to all be on the same page in order to make some noticeable strides

 

[Eight Legger]

That's a really tall order considering he's signed, not just committed.

9-19 demands the fulfillment of such an order.

 

[Captain Anderson]

I agree that the majority of my sentiment has stemmed of the Keith Gill era. I am cautiously optimistic with Hardt, but he can only do so much. Athletic department, President, and the Board of Trustees, have to all be on the same page in order to make some noticeable strides

Bingo. We could have a really special basketball program if all these forces got on the same page. Alas, there are a lot of egos and differing opinions within that group which lead me to believe we will continue with the status quo. No inside information on my part, just what I have observed over the last 6-7 years.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Great post! I agree that change is needed and will be surprised if we don't have some changes at the assistant level.

You are likely right. Axe the fall guy, shout we made significant changes, the problem is fixed! Won't change anything. Mooney himself is the coach with the fatal flaws.

 

[97spiderfan]

Great post! I agree that change is needed and will be surprised if we don't have some changes at the assistant level.

Agreed, I've been saying for years, our assistant coaches are not helping sure up any of Mooney's identified weaknesses. Why he never has gone out and got him an assistant coach with some great recruiting in roads is beyond me?

Instead, were sending Rob Jones out, to sign guys like JMA. I'm sure Rob Jones is a "nice guy" as well, but the dude is completely unqualified to be an associate head coach at an Atlantic 10 program.

 

[VT_Spider]

I think y'all will be pretty surprised by Hardt's leadership. Mooney will be gone at th end of the season, just watch.

 

[whampas]

Agreed, I've been saying for years, our assistant coaches are not helping sure up any of Mooney's identified weaknesses. Why he never has gone out and got him an assistant coach with some great recruiting in roads is beyond me?

Instead, were sending Rob Jones out, to sign guys like JMA. I'm sure Rob Jones is a "nice guy" as well, but the dude is completely unqualified to be an associate head coach at an Atlantic 10 program.

Perhaps Mooney doesn't want to employ his successor.

 

[RollSpides]

I think y'all will be pretty surprised by Hardt's leadership. Mooney will be gone at th end of the season, just watch.

Queally is not getting rid of Mooney

 

[Captain Anderson]

Queally is not getting rid of Mooney

Why not? Not asking to be sarcastic but sincerely would like to understand the dynamic better. Is Queally simply a "Mooney guy" who feels comfortable with the program as it is?

 

[spider fan]

Rumor mill has it that Pitt is in talks with Richmond - Stallings to Richmond and will bring Bryce Golden and in turn Mooney to Pitt and will bring Grant Golden.

 

[97spiderfan]

Perhaps Mooney doesn't want to employ his successor.

No, I think Mooney is comfortable with what he is comfortable with. I think he lacks a the type of confidence that really great leaders just have naturally and so he goes with folks he is familiar and who have a lesser skill set to work under him. A lot of head coaches at our level employ assistant coaches with far greater resume's that ones we have on staff.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

these games matter to me. if he's lost the team, then he's no lock to be back despite the buyout. I don't think he's lost the team though. we'll see.

a lot of similarities to Hoosiers here, lol. under-performing team, no bench, fans calling for coach's head ...

Coach Dale hadn't been at Hickory for 13 years...

 

[32counter]

Martelli on Crowd vs SJU





Mooney ain’t going anywhere.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Odd? if you go to AF website and look at archives, they don't list the 2004/05 and 2005/06 season?

That is odd.
I'm pretty sure my facts are right though. His predecessor and successor made the postseason with the Falcons. We hired him after one year, which was their "gap year."