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Forecast for Georgetown game

Seen mentioned in a couple spots -- who is now talking?
I don't think you are talking about the same thing.

EL seemed to indicate we couldn't win with or without certain players, to head off injury excuse. Someone else used last season's record to indicate this year's roster changes were ok...
 
Hoyas are not that good this year and VCU played them evenly in their closed scrimmage. They are big and offensive rebounding could present an issue for UR in addition to the challenges that have arisen this week. Golden playing closer to the basket to provide some rebounding and an inside game will help. Is the Jacob G decision a game time decision or has it been made?
 
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What's the starting lineup? I really like what I saw in Andre, no "deer in the headlights" reactions, he came in for the most part acting like a player with experience. I found myself wondering why moonman didn't play him the first 5 games (except for a few mop up minutes). I really liked the way he brought the ball up court and I'm hoping that he starts instead of JJ.

I'm also hoping that Grace can give us 12-15 meaningful minutes each game. We need Golden to have something left in the tank at the end of the game.
 
I was going to say the same thing, Rick. Andre lost that deer in headlights look at some point in this game. I guess that's why CM was breaking him in slowly. Andre was pretty shaky taking that layup after his steal for I believe his 1st points. he's a pretty ridiculous athlete, and that'll be a big dunk next time. he's got a great 1st step. impressive drives, but he'll have to shoot too. can't have him and Nathan only taking layups.

Noah looked more sure of himself too. I was starting to question him, but he gets a longer look. I think he'll contribute more.

We all love what we've seen from Woj but he's just scratching the surface. it'll come. he's going to hang up a 20 soon. and he plays D.

I like what I saw from Sal around the basket too. finishes quickly, and his defense seems above average (for our team anyway). pretty good feet.

Matt will be a fine backup for Grant. he might be our Brook Lopez. he's best taking open 3's, but he has nice touch inside as well.

it's a nice group of newcomers. they're not ready to be headliners yet, but they're coming on.
 
Let's slow the roll on how good the freshman looked.

1. They were all playing garbage time minutes against Hampton while we were getting killed. Hampton was exactly locked in being up 30 points much of the second half.
2. Andre is getting all of this love about looking ready. He passed up numerous wide open shots, he was able to score on a couple of uncontested lay-ups. It's his first meaningful time, so that is fine, but I didn't see anything that made me say "wow".
3. Mooney would have been playing these guys before he had to if they were really ready. Mooney was playing Oddo over Andre for a reason.
4. Noah. Ha. Another in the long line of Mooney grad transfer busts. We're stuck with him for 2 years though.

I'm glad they are now getting time, but let us not delude ourselves into thinking that we have some great core of young A-10 talent that has just been untapped. All of these guys were very lightly recruited, none of them has elite level skill or atheticism. Is is possible that one or two of them will be able to work into A-10 level bench player or borderline A-10 starter material, yes, I could see that, but that would be the higher end upside.
 
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never change, 97.

is Nathan not coming along? pretty sure we can go back and find similar comments from you about him.

I'm not saying Andre is ready to start. the guy missed the whole summer. I agree he'll need to take and make shots. his "uncontested lay-ups" weren't uncontested, and he got to the rim with a very quick 1st step. he's very athletic, if you didn't notice. he showed a little. he's a not finished product.
 
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I honestly don't think that we are going to see a MAJOR team drop off as many predict. Performance was already poor with the regulars. The team is ranked a generous # 230 something.

I don't expect it to be abominably worse going forward. Yes, the team will miss Sherod, he is a good player. BUT, getting Andre significant playing time will prove that he has strong potential. He is young and inexperienced therefore he will make some poor decisions and plays. BUT, he will produce as well. Andre is a better defender already.

Same with Cayo and Sal. Cayo is now forced to consistently step up his scoring role. This will accelerate his development. Again, (and as we have already seen) he will have some good and bad moments. I do not see a catastrophic drop off in the long run. Sal will also be forced to play more, which can only speed his development. Certainly he will have good and bad moments, BUT, WE ARE SEEING THAT ANYWAY from the guys who have been playing ahead of him.

Expectation going forward will be that Wojcik take more offensive initiative. Again, nothing but positives toward his development. He has shown (and will continue to show) some freshman ups and downs, but that is part of nearly every first year player's experience. More responsibility will make him better, faster.

The last piece of this is that Mooney SHOULD rest Gilyard until he is fully ready to return. If you don't let a groin injury heal it can become a season-long problem. I know that Mooney is trying to save his job with wins, but there is no big picture reason to rush Gilyard's return.

Not saying that Spiders will be a BETTER team due to injuries, because that is highly unlikely. But I don't see a 30 points per game drop off either. The team wasn't a well oiled machine before the injuries.
 
My two cents is that I thought Andre looked legit on both ends. He created uncontested layups because he blew by his guy.

Sal I thought looked comfortable on offense, and really bad on defense. He jumped in the air on every ball fake, had trouble moving laterally to stay in front of drivers, and was caught out of position (who on our team isn't?) on a couple of occasions. I have lots of hope for him though.

Mooney needs to let Schneider play through at least one mistake before yanking him for the entire rest of the game.
 
never change, 97.

is Nathan not coming along? pretty sure we can go back and find similar comments from you about him.

I'm not saying Andre is ready to start. the guy missed the whole summer. I agree he'll need to take and make shots. his "uncontested lay-ups" weren't uncontested, and he got to the rim with a very quick 1st step. he's very athletic, if you didn't notice. he showed a little. he's a not finished product.
We were joking the other night that Cayo is our best offensive weapon on the team after his performance. Joking because he looks great because look at who he is out there with.

Once we get a real coach, the pieces on our roster that can built around are:

Grant, Jacob, Sherod (A-10 starter levels)
Jake (6th man, borderline A-10 starter)
Andre, Cayo (A-10 bench players)

That's it. The rest of these guys are going to transfer or be over recruited by a coach who knows how to recruit and build an A-10 championship contending roster. They are not A-10 players. Jake, Andre, and Cayo have potential to play on A-10 championship roster but again a good coach is probably going to find better talent.

Go watch VCU or Dayton and then imagine some of our guys on their rosters. They wouldn't be sniffing time on those rosters.

Whomever, we hire, this is almost a complete rebuild now.
 
Homer, we were 2-2 with one of those losses to a pretty good Loyola team when Gilyard came up lame. we undoubtedly beat Wyoming with him healthy. we should beat Hampton with him and Nick, too. could have been 4-2 going into Georgetown. instead we're writing off the year already. it's a huge hit losing those two offensively.

we all knew it would take the highly unlikely scenario that we stayed healthy (totally healthy from the big 3) to have a decent season. it didn't take long for that scenario to fall apart.

before 97 and others jump in, of course it's on CM to have a bench ready to handle some injuries. he doesn't and we knew that. even without Nick going down, we couldn't withstand losing one guy ... Jacob. and we'd have had the same issue had we lost Grant.

not many teams can handle losing your best. If we lost KA, or KA and Harp back in the 2011 glory days, those teams wouldn't have won either.
 
97, we're not that far apart. the major difference is our opinions of Andre and Sal. and I agree they wouldn't be playing on Dayton month one of freshman year. but I believe they have potential. not sure why you don't see that in Andre. give him time. tougher to project with Sal but again ... in a strong program he's not expected to see time as a freshman. we look at it like if he's not starting he must suck. he doesn't, and he won't.

I also think Grace is better than expected, and will be a valuable bench player. again ... in a deep program he's nowhere near the court yet.

and I know you'll stick by your assessment on Nathan, but's he's improved a ton and may continue that trajectory. I hate the hitch in his 3 point shot. no idea how that wasn't fixed. but he's much better from the line so his shooting has a chance. he certainly gets to the rim.
 
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Homer, we were 2-2 with one of those losses to a pretty good Loyola team when Gilyard came up lame. we undoubtedly beat Wyoming with him healthy. we should beat Hampton with him and Nick, too. could have been 4-2 going into Georgetown. instead we're writing off the year already. it's a huge hit losing those two offensively.

we all knew it would take the highly unlikely scenario that we stayed healthy (totally healthy from the big 3) to have a decent season. it didn't take long for that scenario to fall apart.

before 97 and others jump in, of course it's on CM to have a bench ready to handle some injuries. he doesn't and we knew that. even without Nick going down, we couldn't withstand losing one guy ... Jacob. and we'd have had the same issue had we lost Grant.

not many teams can handle losing your best. If we lost KA, or KA and Harp back in the 2011 glory days, those teams wouldn't have won either.
Agree, I am just saying that I don't think the results are going to be much different than they were going to be anyway.
 
The rest of these guys are going to transfer or be over recruited by a coach who knows how to recruit and build an A-10 championship contending roster. They are not A-10 players. Jake, Andre, and Cayo have potential to play on A-10 championship roster but again a good coach is probably going to find better talent.

Go watch VCU or Dayton and then imagine some of our guys on their rosters. They wouldn't be sniffing time on those rosters.

Whomever, we hire, this is almost a complete rebuild now.

I think this pretty much sums it up. Over the years Mooney has had pieces in places with a few good recruits and some that turned out to be very good recruits. Our NCAA years reflects this. But over his tenure (into the teen years now), he has not consistently been a good recruiter. We have had too many misses, plenty of guys leave the program for D2 schools, and plenty sit on the bench while walk-ons play before recruited players.

At this point of his tenure here, we should be basically restocking a piece or two for a fine oiled system instead of restocking in quantity. It goes to his recruiting or lack of skills. And yes, that factors into account admissions restrictions and other reasons / excuses. Other similar schools to us do just fine. When will it be our turn?
 
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Homer, we were 2-2 with one of those losses to a pretty good Loyola team when Gilyard came up lame. we undoubtedly beat Wyoming with him healthy. we should beat Hampton with him and Nick, too. could have been 4-2 going into Georgetown. instead we're writing off the year already. it's a huge hit losing those two offensively.

we all knew it would take the highly unlikely scenario that we stayed healthy (totally healthy from the big 3) to have a decent season. it didn't take long for that scenario to fall apart.

before 97 and others jump in, of course it's on CM to have a bench ready to handle some injuries. he doesn't and we knew that. even without Nick going down, we couldn't withstand losing one guy ... Jacob. and we'd have had the same issue had we lost Grant.

not many teams can handle losing your best. If we lost KA, or KA and Harp back in the 2011 glory days, those teams wouldn't have won either.

Even when we were fully healthy, we were still a really bad team. This is why pretty much A-10 preseason prediction had us around 10-12. This is a team when fully healthy that came out and lost to Longwood on opening night. Longwood!!! And Longwood looked better than us. Hampton crushed us. Crushed us. That game was not competitive from the opening tip.

It was a bad team even before the injury, it is even worse now, but as Homer said, when your bad to begin with, you can only get so much incrementally worse.

My point in all of this. You are way overvalueing our talent. It is not good outside the Big 3 and honestly Sherod had a lot of holes in his game. He is a bad defender and while a prolific scorer he would also disappear for large sections of time and couldn't hit big shots.
 
Getting back to Georgetown obviously I'd love to see us keep up this H&H series. UR being so bad may help. GTown likes to schedule really easy OOC. New coach could change our direction & we steal one from the Hoyas before they realize renewing was a bad decision.
 
The Richmond Spiders are:
  • 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
  • 21-49-5 ATS in their last 75 non-conference games.
That last one is unbelievable.
 
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Heard we are only 8 1/2 dogs. Seems awfully generous to me. Has Ulla bet that ranch yet?
 
Fezz, you would think this would be an ideal situation for that result. Backs against the wall, lost teammate to injury, team and coach under pressure, playing a big name team that really is not that good either. All the elements to come out fired up and play a good game. Only question mark is Moon. Let that sink in.
 
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