If URI wins, they're guaranteed the 3 no matter what else. In that scenario, we're the 4 either outright or by head-to-head tiebreaker, unless we lose and VCU wins, in which case we slip to the 5.
If URI loses, it gets a little more complicated. We could snatch the 3 if both we and VCU win because we'd have a three-way tiebreak. If VCU and URI both lose, we get the 4 no matter what we do, because we either lose the 3-4 tiebreak against URI with a win or win the 4-5 tiebreak against VCU with a loss. And again, the only way we can slip to the 5 is if we lose and VCU wins.