A10 Tournament math

[PalmTreeSpidUR]

Has anyone done the math on how high or low we can be seeded? I recognize it is more difficult this year because of the % winning factor.

PLEASE, no editorial comments, we have plenty of threads for those, I'm just looking for numbers that someone who knows more than I do can figure out.

 

[Eight Legger]

Between third and sixth.

 

[mr.spider]

Let's grab one of the top 4 seeds. If we can do that, we can win this Tourny. We are certainly capable.

The A10 screwed us with scheduling and taking away the RC for the championship. Let's get a little angry and prove them wrong. We have the talent. Add a little fire, and it is certainly within reach.

How do you think vcu made the final four so many years ago. They weren't nearly as talented as our team this year. They just channeled the "prove them wrong" mentality from the media that said they didn't deserve to make the Tourny at all (which I still say was accurate - they should have been left out). However, they were good enough that a little 'prove em wrong' mentality was all they needed.

Let's embrace that for our team now. You guys can do it. You certainly have the talent. Go get 'em Spiders!

 

[PalmTreeSpidUR]

Thanks Eight Legger.

 

[urmite]

Thanks Eight Legger.

I believe wins by UR & SLU on Monday make us third and seems the most likely outcome.

 

[Eight Legger]

The only unknown is whether SLU will be seeded based upon RPI since they will have only played 10 games, in which case they would be ahead of us.

 

[urmite]

The only unknown is whether SLU will be seeded based upon RPI since they will have only played 10 games, in which case they would be ahead of us.

If the 6 remaining games are played, I believe only teams playing less than 8.1 games will be seeded by NET...

 

[whampas]

I believe wins by UR & SLU on Monday make us third and seems the most likely outcome.

I think we will lose Monday. We have no future with this coach.

 

[urmite]

Not that any of this matters...
But if UR, SLU, and SBU lose on Monday are we 7th?

SBU 733 (800)
VCU 714
UMass 700 (600)
Davidson 636
GMU 571

Dayton 563 (500)
UR 545 (636.5)
SLU 500 (600)

 

[SpiderK]

Let's grab one of the top 4 seeds. If we can do that, we can win this Tourny. We are certainly capable.

The A10 screwed us with scheduling and taking away the RC for the championship. Let's get a little angry and prove them wrong. We have the talent. Add a little fire, and it is certainly within reach.

How do you think vcu made the final four so many years ago. They weren't nearly as talented as our team this year. They just channeled the "prove them wrong" mentality from the media that said they didn't deserve to make the Tourny at all (which I still say was accurate - they should have been left out). However, they were good enough that a little 'prove em wrong' mentality was all they needed.

Let's embrace that for our team now. You guys can do it. You certainly have the talent. Go get 'em Spiders!

We would need Herb Brooks or Knute Rockne for a coach. We have Mooney.

 

[SFspidur]

Game notes for tomorrow say that if we win, we’re either 3 or 4 depending on the SLU-UMass result. If we lose, we could be 6, 7, or 8.

 

[Eight Legger]

I'd love to know how we could win and still end up fourth. Worst case in that scenario we would be tied at 7-4 with UMass and Davidson. We are 2-0 against them. They didn't play each other.

Is head-to -ead not the first tiebreaker in that scenario? If not, then I guess it would go to record against Bonaventure and VCU? We lost to them both, UMass didn't play either one and Davidson is 1-2 against them so I guess that would put them third and us fourth?

 

[SFspidur]

UMass is 6–3. If they beat SLU, they’re 7–3 and we can’t match them.

 

[SFspidur]

As usual, SBUnfurled has done a great job laying out all of the different possibilities.




There does seem to be some uncertainty about the 11–13 seeds though. By the announced seeding rules, GW will fall just short of the 60% of median games played (8 games, while threshold would be 8.1 assuming all three games are played tomorrow) and should be seeded 13th based on their NET.

Philly Inquirer guy, however, says "they're not going there" and seems to be expecting that GW will get the 11-seed based on seeding by winning percentage like everyone else, leaving La Salle-St. Joe's as the 12-13 game.

 

[MrTbone]

“I was told there would be no math.”

 

[SFspidur]

Looks like SBUnfurled may have confirmed that the A-10 is rounding down that 8.1 threshold to 8, which means GW exactly makes it and will get the 11-seed. Not that I really care for basketball purposes, but the math nerd in me finds this pretty sketchy.

 

[urmite]

“I was told there would be no math.”

I actually did all the math, after I posted. But it has now put me 3 days behind at work.

I don’t think it was worth it.

 

[Eight Legger]

UMass is 6–3. If they beat SLU, they’re 7–3 and we can’t match them.

Ah, I had their record wrong in my head. Thanks.

 

[PalmTreeSpidUR]

Thanks everyone. That graphic gives me a headache.

 

[SFspidur]

Thanks everyone. That graphic gives me a headache.

Let me explain... No, there is too much. Let me sum up: We’d better win tonight.

 

[8legs1dream]

We shouldn't get abused on the boards like we did last game since the Hawks two top rebounders are just guards. There is no denying they are on an upward trajectory but I'm hoping that they used up a lot of their mojo by nearly hanging 100 on Dayton and 91 in the game before that.

On paper of course we should stomp them and are favored by 14.5 points but after this season nothing will surprise me and I'd be shocked if we covered that spread.

 

[712_VT]

I guarantee you they will still out rebound UR even with their guards being their best rebounders.

 

[urmite]

Our last 2 games against them we averaged 81.5 to 54. The good news, that was with Golden have 8 points in each game.

So while their offense may be improved, hopefully our offense doesn't fall much.

 

[URSpider95]

Would really like to get a sustainable lead here and get some time off for Grant. We need him as close to 100% as we can get for this weekends games.

But first we need to win this game. It essentially gives is a 1st round bye and into the quarterfinals.

 

[spiderman]

I unfortunately don't think getting Grant rest today has any effect on him this weekend. if fact, maybe it's better he runs and works hard for 30 minutes.
it's a broken finger. it needs surgery. it would be different if it were a sprained ankle or something.

 

[spider fan]

Scheduled for surgery - question is when?

 

[8legs1dream]

Scheduled for surgery - question is when?

after our NIT run concludes

 

[SpiderFan]

We're not going to the NIT, Mooney is going to schedule a non-conference game after the A10 tourney; the team will lose since they're not going to the NCAAs and it'll be another refused CBI invitation.

 

[urmite]

Umm...what?

Predictions for all 31 college basketball conference tournaments (espn.com)

This was 8 hours ago, not 8 months ago?

 

[SFspidur]

Dayton knocks off Bona. SLU up double digits on UMass. We’re staring an 8-seed in the face. We’d face Duquesne on Wednesday for the right to take on Bona.

 

[8legs1dream]

Dayton knocks off Bona. SLU up double digits on UMass. We’re staring an 8-seed in the face. We’d face Duquesne on Wednesday for the right to take on Bona.

It was an outcome with the lowest percentage chance of happening and yet somehow we are not surprised at all 😨

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Dayton knocks off Bona. SLU up double digits on UMass. We’re staring an 8-seed in the face. We’d face Duquesne on Wednesday for the right to take on Bona.

It's all part of the plan!

 

[RESRam]

It's all part of the plan!

Regatta baby. Regatta.

 

[72Spider]

Dayton knocks off Bona. SLU up double digits on UMass. We’re staring an 8-seed in the face. We’d face Duquesne on Wednesday for the right to take on Bona.

Who gives a sh*t

 

[SFspidur]

Spiders-Dukes…11am Thursday.

 

[urmite]

Spiders-Dukes…11am Wednesday.

Wednesday?

 

[SFspidur]

Wednesday?

Sorry, Thursday.

 

[urmite]

Sorry, Thursday.

I thought by losing to st Joe we replaced them Wednesday....

 

[SouthJerseySpiderFan]

Spiders on wrong side of bracket it appears. Win 1st game and I believe have to go through Bonny and StL to reach final. Would have rather seen them on VCU and Davidson side.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

I unfortunately don't think getting Grant rest today has any effect on him this weekend. if fact, maybe it's better he runs and works hard for 30 minutes.
it's a broken finger. it needs surgery. it would be different if it were a sprained ankle or something.

Where did you hear that Golden needed surgery? I've had the majority of my fingers broken and 1 thumb. Never had surgery to repair any of them.