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3rd round Playoff Lines-Spiders big Dogs

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Spider's Club
Apr 8, 2008
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Siesta Key,FL
Richmond v Illinois State(-14 ) O/U 60.5

Implied score: 37-23

Charleston Southern v Jacksonville St(-10)

Northern Iowa v North Dakota State (-7)

Colgate v Sam Houston St(-9.5)
 
I'm with you Mo. Vegas kinda missed the boat last week by what? 33.5 points or so. Spiders win outright. 42-38.
 
I suspect it will end closer to +7 (where it belongs) and the house will have a decent sized liability on us before this thing is said and done. Bookmaker missed the boat on this one, big time.
 
We should revisit the lines on Sunday and see just how accurate these were. I hope they eat crow on the -14.
 
Personally like the big spread.Players will know.Coaches will know.Parents of players will know and even an overconfident Illinois State will know.Huge motivator for us.Chip on our shoulder much?Rodney Dangerfield we ain't.
 
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Totally agree 32 - the more we are dissed in projecting the outcome the more motivation we will have. Not quite in line with Cluley's clueless tweet because the Redbirds are not the ones doing it.
 
5 dimes where you got these spreads is a joke. I wouldn't call it a "Vegas" line. The real Vegas line is not out. Granted 5 dimes is one of the few places you see FCS lines during season but Vegas and real sportsbooks pick them up during the playoffs. It won't be out until end of week. Now you'd think 5 Dimes will be somewhat accurate we'll see. Certainly it seems high when we've lost only 2 FCS games all year by a combined 6 pts. Of course IL State does deserve to be favored.

I don't see the spread as much of a motivating game factor either, but wherever you can derive motivation have at it. I like the spread low b/c I tend to bet money line against the Spids, and hope to lose the bet. Spread I ignore b/c if say I bet IL State on spread and they win the game but don't cover, that's like losing twice. Heart and wallet. But if you were inclined to bet Spiders of course you want it high, especially b/c the value will be higher on money line if u take to win outright.
 
It's always great to have such meaningful insights and overwhelming positivity.

Let's see:

1.UR plays away game on a short week in Illinois in a night game to the no.4 FCS ranked team.Redbirds lost 31-14 to Iowa(recently BCS no.4 but barely lost to Michigan State in B10 title game) away and South Dakota State away.Ill State has won 19 straight at home.Redbirds were in FCS title game last year.
2.UR lost an away night game to an unranked Nova team.Before we played Nova they were 5-4.Nova finished 6-5.They stunk without Robertson but we lost to them without Robertson.
3.UR lost an away night game to an unranked UNH team.Before we played UNH they 4-4.With beating us they went on a 3-0 run and got themselves as the last team into the playoffs.UNH hosted Colgate in Round 1 and lost.UNH finished at 7-5.

Realizing that '5dimes' is a joke I shall never use them again.I shall advise my friend(who is a bettor)that '5 dimes' is absolutely meaningless and that comes from someone who gets his rooms,meals,drinks and limo comped whenever he visits the Bellagio in "Vegas" after flying his private jet into the FBO at McCarran.Cool stuff and we thank you for all that advice.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
 
SDSU was ranked #6 in FCS when ISU lost to them by 5 on the road. That was the only FCS loss this season for the Birds. The Iowa loss looks whole lost better now than the first week of the season.
 
I didn't realize my post would offend you 32 but then again you're a really weird dude. The Vegas insider link is legit. Those odds were not out when I posted they just got released. 5 Dimes was accurate here & I said they might be but pretty well known they're not very reputable overall. I wasn't referring to their lines when I said it's a joke. Just a joke site. Yeah the line seemed a bit high to me & I was admittedly wrong but that wasn't the point anyway.

I understand why you posted them...5 dimes is basically all there is for FCS...until it gets to playoffs & the more respectable books get involved.

And you have a rich friend?...I mean who goes there? We went to Richmond aren't we all rich :)

Anyway I can ensure you if your jet flying limo riding Ric Flair buddy is a serious bettor he's definitely not using 5 Dimes often.
 
The computers have been down on the Spiders all year because we played Rhody, Maine and Albany. William and Mary, for example, missed all 3 of them but played Towson, Delaware and Stony Brook, who were all higher in the standings than the group we played. That's why the Indians were favored over us 3 weekends ago and why last weekend was a pick 'em. That marginally tougher competition did little to help the Indians.
 
I'm glad we are big dogs here, even if it is a ridiculous line. Seems like they will do their best to run it down our throats all day long, so we are going to need to cause a few turnovers. I think we will be able to score just fine ourselves, but we'll need a couple breaks to slow them down and set up a home rematch with UNI.
 
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Truthfully, I get the line. They are proven, got to the championship game last year, run for a lot of yards, got the #2 seed.

We are turnover prone. That's what has cost us. Either way, I wouldn't be shocked by the result. I don't think we can beat them by 35, but its all about winning by 1 that matters
 
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Thanks for all that wisdom.My friend indicates that the Vegas lines and 5 dimes have been the same since the playoffs have started.But you already knew that.Or didn't you.
Know that you were only kidding but likely wanted to blow off some bravado like a typical blowhard.
Every kid on our team should not be made aware that they are underdogs for this game.If they needed that as a motivator it would be meaningless just as you point out.Just like meaningless 5 dimes spreads.See you at the BlackJack tables at the Bellagio.If you need a ride from McCarran,let me know.Will arrange for greenhorn 1st time visitors.
 
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We've all seen your friend before

gambling.jpg
 
MolivaManiac said:
The computers have been down on the Spiders all year because we played Rhody, Maine and Albany. William and Mary, for example, missed all 3 of them but played Towson, Delaware and Stony Brook, who were all higher in the standings than the group we played. That's why the Indians were favored over us 3 weekends ago and why last weekend was a pick 'em. That marginally tougher competition did little to help the Indians.
Click to expand...
I would say the computer are down on us because we played Hampton, VMI, Rhody, Elon, Albany. That is not a murder's row. The computers always overvalue SOS, the humans always overvalue "name" and history.

To tie the two topics together, how often has the 5dimes line opened different than what the computers say?
 
32counter said:
It's always great to have such meaningful insights and overwhelming positivity.

Let's see:

1.UR plays away game on a short week in Illinois in a night game to the no.4 FCS ranked team.Redbirds lost 31-14 to Iowa(recently BCS no.4 but barely lost to Michigan State in B10 title game) away and South Dakota State away.Ill State has won 19 straight at home.Redbirds were in FCS title game last year.
2.UR lost an away night game to an unranked Nova team.Before we played Nova they were 5-4.Nova finished 6-5.They stunk without Robertson but we lost to them without Robertson.
3.UR lost an away night game to an unranked UNH team.Before we played UNH they 4-4.With beating us they went on a 3-0 run and got themselves as the last team into the playoffs.UNH hosted Colgate in Round 1 and lost.UNH finished at 7-5.

Realizing that '5dimes' is a joke I shall never use them again.I shall advise my friend(who is a bettor)that '5 dimes' is absolutely meaningless and that comes from someone who gets his rooms,meals,drinks and limo comped whenever he visits the Bellagio in "Vegas" after flying his private jet into the FBO at McCarran.Cool stuff and we thank you for all that advice.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
Click to expand...

And for different spin on
2. UR lost a night away game at Nova by a blocked XP, after outgaining them 441-296, and only losing the TO battle 3-2 but maximizing those TOs (losing the ball on the Nova 9 & 3, and our 14).
3. UR lost a night away game at playoff team UNH by 5 points, after a horrendous travel schedule and losing the TO battle 5-0.

The odds are correct to include the likelihood of both travel woes & TOs. If either happen this week we will lose by a lot.

Hopefully we have a different travel agent and find a way to hold on to the ball. If both of those happen this should be a slugfest.
 
All I can add is I like our odds. SIU should be favored but a 13 point spread is ridiculous. If I had a private jet, I would be flying to Vegas to put a hefty wager down on the Spiders with that spread and feeling pretty comfortable about it.

Of course, if I had a private jet, I wouldn't need to gamble my money away in Vegas and probably realize that I can get make a much better return taking advantage of some tax loopholes.
 
urmite said:
I would say the computer are down on us because we played Hampton, VMI, Rhody, Elon, Albany. That is not a murder's row. The computers always overvalue SOS, the humans always overvalue "name" and history.

To tie the two topics together, how often has the 5dimes line opened different than what the computers say?
Click to expand...

Right, but William and Mary played Hampton and VMI, as well. And we got Hampton on the road.
 
Comparable offense to Redbirds that we faced recently was Nova last year in the Brickhouse.Nova had Robertson running and passing.Monangai was running and Livers was catching.

Nova Robertson was ALL Everyhing as a dual threat.

Could see Mr Trott using those same schemes on Friday night to shut down Redbird option read.
 
32counter said:
Comparable offense to Redbirds that we faced recently was Nova last year in the Brickhouse.Nova had Robertson running and passing.Monangai was running and Livers was catching.

Nova Robertson was ALL Everyhing as a dual threat.

Could see Mr Trott using those same schemes on Friday night to shut down Redbird option read.
Click to expand...

I agree but Roberson and Coprich are much more explosive than Robertson and Monangai. Robertson was probably a better passer than Roberson but not by much.
 
ISU bravado:

Re: Richmond Predictions thread
PostTue Dec 08, 2015 5:01 pm

Our defensive front 7 is the best Richmond has seen in the last decade. Our DBacks might be beaten, but only if Corwin and Perkins don't kill their QB in the mean time. On the other side fo the coin, our OLine should push them around. If Tre makes good decisions for most of the game, this shouldn't be..."close".

Richmond- 18
Illinois St- 38
 
Ha, guess they forgot that we play in CAA and have a much more extensive playoff history than they do. Ignorance is bliss!
 
I believe we knocked off ASU on a Friday night playoff game (I know it was night) -- cold as you know what- we were heavy dogs, and they were sure they were going to be a 4 peat
 
We lost to ASU on a Friday night (very cold) 35-55. We beat them the next year on a Saturday afternoon.
 
We lost a hard fought Friday night playoff game at ASU but kicked some butt the next year on an unforgettable Sat before topping that the next Sat in N Iowa. Memories I will never forget.
 
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urfan1 said:
I believe we knocked off ASU on a Friday night playoff game (I know it was night) -- cold as you know what- we were heavy dogs, and they were sure they were going to be a 4 peat
Click to expand...
We knocked off App State on snowy Saturday afternoon game, cause I had to work and
listened to game on ASU radio, then trying to get to a App State viewing before game ended.
 
The computers were down on us all year because we got stomped by MD, had to scramble a comeback against Hampton and despite beating VMI 42-10 we didn't "out-stat" them very much. Those were our first three games, and despite playing much better we started off way down the hill. We really did not look sharp at the beginning of the year, and despite starting 2-1 those 3 opponents underperformed the rest of the year, making our rough start even harder to overcome.
 
understand having a tough schedule but in reality, not actually who you play, it is how good your team is and we are good.
 
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