We are talking as if their is an at large possibility with a run the table finish, but I have yet to see one bracketologist or analyst have us in the discussion or on the bubble. Palm obviously doesnt. Its due to the high NET of course. Sucks. Dayton a lock and 4-5 seed prediction has 3 league losses, yet no cred given to any other teams.Palm slides us back in as the auto, noting we're a bid stealer who otherwise wouldn't be in the field. Dayton sitting at a 6-seed.
Bracketology Bubble Watch: Cincinnati falls from field, Gonzaga looks to keep tournament hopes alive
The Bearcats suffered a major setback on Wednesday after their loss to Oklahoma State in Big 12 actionwww.cbssports.com
Lunardi hasn't updated today.
2023–24 NET Ratings
- Thread starter SFspidur
- Start date
I’d say 24-7 and outright A-10 champs puts us in all conversations - still need minimum one win in A10 tourney but I’ll be very surprised if not. Teams often implode and take themselves out of it. At 26-7 and in A10 finals? committee has long said they ignore Sunday results except for auto bid stealers. So we’re either locked in by then or completely out already for at large purposes. But margin for error is nil so may as well win em all.
8legs1dream
Graduate Assistant
last year when vcu ran away with the A10 regular season they still were going to have to win the A10 tournament to get in as I recall.
We are not in the discussion (we were starting to get there before the UMass loss) because all of the Bracketology stuff is as if the season ended today. Winning out or close to it definitely changes that. I'm not sure it gets us a bid, but it does get us in the conversation.
The bracketologists don't have us there because as of today we're not there. This is all based on today not projecting future results. Some of those bubble teams will fall way off. We can take their place. Some of them are garbage. A&M. Butler. If we win out we'll certainly pass teams like them, who I expect will lose more. Many teams r going to lose. It will change as season goes on. Palm is right, as of today we are bid stealer and otherwise wouldn't be in the field. If they were projecting nobody would have us winning next 5 or 6 or 7. But u roll off 3 more and all of a sudden we'd be on these lists (if we weren't already a placeholder for auto).
We go 24-7 (24-7!!) and win that quarters at least we're right there. 16-2, outright A10 champs #8 league is our resume. Hopefully in 50s NET at least if win out. we still need that 1 monster blowout to really help us.
But that is why I don't get why some were rooting for Dayton. Didn't make sense to me. We need that as a great win. We don't want Dayton to lose again. 1 loss was probably ok to give us outright title w/o tiebreakers, but there are 4 games left for UD. They could drop another which hurts us. So I didn't want their loss to come with 4 games left. Too risky.
Anyway, is our margin of error zero? Yes. It's a lot smaller than other bubble teams. That part all true. But there is a path imo. Of course it's definitely not 14-4 without having a win over Dayton. VT4700 is gone for now so I guess we can't revisit but that was his take earlier.
We go 24-7 (24-7!!) and win that quarters at least we're right there. 16-2, outright A10 champs #8 league is our resume. Hopefully in 50s NET at least if win out. we still need that 1 monster blowout to really help us.
But that is why I don't get why some were rooting for Dayton. Didn't make sense to me. We need that as a great win. We don't want Dayton to lose again. 1 loss was probably ok to give us outright title w/o tiebreakers, but there are 4 games left for UD. They could drop another which hurts us. So I didn't want their loss to come with 4 games left. Too risky.
Anyway, is our margin of error zero? Yes. It's a lot smaller than other bubble teams. That part all true. But there is a path imo. Of course it's definitely not 14-4 without having a win over Dayton. VT4700 is gone for now so I guess we can't revisit but that was his take earlier.
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Wow, what a link
Teamcast for Richmond - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
Gotta add another tournament win in there over like a St. Joe's/Duquesne type, but yeah Torvik still thinks we're out. But I also think 16–2 outright champ carries significant weight with the actual decision makers that his metrics don't capture.
Plus he can’t account for everything else happening in other games.
2nd link was beat VCU & Dayton, lose in final to GMU. Still 5th out I think..
And do u have Villanova as 9 seed? I like Torvik but that's what Torvik has via your link. Palm doesn't even have Villanova on bubble right now. All these guys will have mistakes, even on selection sunday. Lot more right now.
I do agree our 25-8 or 26-8 & winning A10 will resonate more with committee than some other bubbles. If we got there. It comes with weakness for sure, & lot more than in 19-20. For a team in A10 your OOC is the difference maker. A10 results have to be good but they r secondary. I've been saying it forever. OOC. OOC.
I like the prediction that we take 2 from rams!Wow, what a link
Teamcast for Richmond - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.barttorvik.com
If we won out until the A10 finals we would certainly be an interesting test case for the committee. That would have us 26-7 and on a 9 game winning streak going into selection Sunday, conference champs, winners of 21 out of last 23. Still unlikely but I also didn't foresee us being 19-7 a few months ago so who knows.
Step one win Saturday...
Step one win Saturday...
Of course I do. Their NET is what 34? And their is only NET and no committee.
So it easy to see what everyone is going to be seeded…
Metrics, metrics, metrics… there are many things that can’t be determined by a math formula alone. Hopefully the committee considers things like outright champs, and 8th ranked league but probably not. It seems its easier to not argue with the math.
I know many say the NET “is only a tool” but if UR were 45 their chances would be a lot higher. The 10 teams above UR next out on Burt’s list are higher because of NET only, pretty much.
I know many say the NET “is only a tool” but if UR were 45 their chances would be a lot higher. The 10 teams above UR next out on Burt’s list are higher because of NET only, pretty much.
As Dayton continues to lose in conference. Too much luv for them. What happens if a couple more Dayton losses? They r living off of early season wins and competition.
What really sucks about committee putting so much emphasis on OOC and I agree its a huge part for mid majors getting at large, is that they are games that happened at the stsrt of the season before teams really become themselves. You would think that the committee would consider that a team has won 19 of 21 games to end the season.
Last 10 games record (later became last 12) was removed from the team sheets ~15 years ago. The main justification was that the data showed no statistical correlation of that to performance in the tourney.
That said, I think a super strong finish over an extended period has to register well with the committee. It's kinda what we're talking about with regards to overall conference record. Obviously that's 18 games now, so more than half the season, but still, it stands out on the résumé.
That said, I think a super strong finish over an extended period has to register well with the committee. It's kinda what we're talking about with regards to overall conference record. Obviously that's 18 games now, so more than half the season, but still, it stands out on the résumé.
Think we would be in a good spot if we make it to Sunday, because losing that game likely wouldn't go against us.
One wrinkle is what if we lose to someone other than Dayton in the final? I know, I know...they're not supposed to look at conference, but they surely do, and would they take three from the A-10? I don't think so. I think they'd just have Dayton and then a slot for the auto winner all ready to just pencil in a name.
(Assuming Dayton doesn't collapse and play themselves into question.)
(Assuming Dayton doesn't collapse and play themselves into question.)
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Right, if Dayton is such a mortal lock and finishes third or fourth in its league, hmm, maybe there are some other deserving teams in the league too. Imagine that!
???? I think you missed the point. It should go beyond math. But thats my view.
Which NCAA tournament teams has Dayton beaten this year? They have wins over LSU, St. John's, SMU, and Cincinnati...a bunch of (maybe) bubble teams but no locks. Their NET and other rankings are also propped up by losses to Northwestern and Houston. Major credit to them for playing a competitive OOC schedule for sure and they are a good team but I think a lot of folks see the top 25 ranking beside their name and think juggernaut. That doesn't take away from our (best) win against them or our very good season to date but the perception of Dayton is interesting. Of course, watch them make a run to the Final Four now after all my "expert analysis".
Yes, the OOC is a huge help. The Mountain West has played this brilliantly. Once you play the tough OOC schedule, you seem pretty locked in b/c you are playing other high NET rated teams.
When I have watched Dayton I have not been wowed by them either, but a lot of college basketball media guys are, lot of dark horse final 4/8 chatter.
Of course last season, I did not think SDSU had the offensive talent to make a deep NCAA run, and ended up number 2 in the entire nation.
/end shameless SDSU plug
When I have watched Dayton I have not been wowed by them either, but a lot of college basketball media guys are, lot of dark horse final 4/8 chatter.
Of course last season, I did not think SDSU had the offensive talent to make a deep NCAA run, and ended up number 2 in the entire nation.
/end shameless SDSU plug
Unfortunately I’d have to say that in comparison to our OOC record and quality of teams, Dayton’s represents a better picture than ours. We really needed a couple / few of those parity and slightly stretch games, and our only win was UNLV.
No, I got your point. I was just curious if there was a statistical component imbedded, and SF addressed that.
Going to really need to mount impressive wins rest of season and go deep in conf tourney. The roadmap is doable but not many individual roads to get there.
What's interesting is that the Big 12 uses the exact opposite technique....played a totally weak-ass OOC slate but they absolutely destroyed those teams. Teel has a new article about it from the angle of ACC coaches thinking about doing the same thing. So our already slim chances of games against them may be about to decrease further.
Teel: ACC coaches frustrated by NET and Big 12's high rankings
Staring at the prospect of a third consecutive season with minimal NCAA bids, ACC coaches may alter their nonconference scheduling approach
And I think this quote at the end of the article sums up why those of us who aren't happy with the NET, are correct:What's interesting is that the Big 12 uses the exact opposite technique....played a totally weak-ass OOC slate but they absolutely destroyed those teams. Teel has a new article about it from the angle of ACC coaches thinking about doing the same thing. So our already slim chances of games against them may be about to decrease further.
Teel: ACC coaches frustrated by NET and Big 12's high rankings
Staring at the prospect of a third consecutive season with minimal NCAA bids, ACC coaches may alter their nonconference scheduling approachrichmond.com
N.C. State’s Kevin Keatts said. “Unfortunately, I think it takes away from the sportsmanship. ... You’ve got to try and beat the heck out of people just to improve your NET.”
lot of valid arguments being put forward here.
I'd hope that the crack UR marketing machine is really pressing the angle that UR lost some OOC games without one of its starters (if our record with DL0 helps our case.)
I'd also hope that an outright winner at 16-2 of the #8 rated conference would be deemed deserving of the opportunity to play in a championship tournament.
Win em all.
I'd hope that the crack UR marketing machine is really pressing the angle that UR lost some OOC games without one of its starters (if our record with DL0 helps our case.)
I'd also hope that an outright winner at 16-2 of the #8 rated conference would be deemed deserving of the opportunity to play in a championship tournament.
Win em all.
Friday update from Lunardi...Spiders back in with the auto as a 12-seed playing Wisconsin in Brooklyn.
Men's Bracketology: Kentucky and the Champions Classic prove why November games matter
Duke and Alabama are proof that early-season matchups can affect March seeding. They drop off the top line -- to the delight of UConn and Auburn.
www.espn.com
He could have read this thread two months ago and learned all about that. Lol
USA Today has us facing Texas Tech in Pittsburgh and stealing a bid from Burton at the moment.
Duke making big move in latest Bracketology forecasting the NCAA men's tournament
Duke has risen to a No. 3 seed in the latest Bracketology forecasting the NCAA men's tournament and the Blue Devils have the potential to rise higher.
www.usatoday.com
But all seeding is by NET and they are a 9 seed.USA Today has us facing Texas Tech in Pittsburgh and stealing a bid from Burton at the moment.
Duke making big move in latest Bracketology forecasting the NCAA men's tournament
Duke has risen to a No. 3 seed in the latest Bracketology forecasting the NCAA men's tournament and the Blue Devils have the potential to rise higher.www.usatoday.com
Leaving aside SDSU, who go at this differently, MWC formula is to play many home games against moderately good West Coast teams from 2k less elevation locations. It would be interesting to ask someone from the A10 if it was more us or them who killed our series. They have convinced the metrics they are good which seems to be the ticket these days but setting aside SDSU, who plays at sea-level, their recent tourney record is significant and abysmal. That smacks of gaming the system well.Yes, the OOC is a huge help. The Mountain West has played this brilliantly. Once you play the tough OOC schedule, you seem pretty locked in b/c you are playing other high NET rated teams.
When I have watched Dayton I have not been wowed by them either, but a lot of college basketball media guys are, lot of dark horse final 4/8 chatter.
Of course last season, I did not think SDSU had the offensive talent to make a deep NCAA run, and ended up number 2 in the entire nation.
/end shameless SDSU plug
UNLV just beat #22 Colorado St. Do not know enough about it to know if will help Spider ranking, but certainly should not hurt.
UNLV was #88 NET coming into the game. Any bump won't be enough to improve our win from a Q2 (would need to into the top 50 for a neutral game), but obviously still better for us the higher they are.
They've now got 5 Q1 wins on the season with two more still to come on the schedule. Unfortunately, they also have 3 Q4 losses.
They've now got 5 Q1 wins on the season with two more still to come on the schedule. Unfortunately, they also have 3 Q4 losses.
