2022–23 Schedule Updates
- Thread starter SFspidur
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Agreed - I think looking at it on paper - if they go 10-3, they are in very good shape heading into A10. Even if they go 9-4 - I think they are still looking good. 8-5 territory is no mans land really. They will say tough schedule, and others will say your not as good as you thought. So I think they need to be 9-4 or better AND then they still need a top 3 finish in the A10.
agreed. and the D3 game doesn't count, so only 12 games. they have to do better than 7-5 or the tough schedule hurt them more than helped them.
8legs1dream
Graduate Assistant
So far UR has to go OOC with 1 loss to have at large hope while SLU can have 3-4, it shows the difference in the OOC schedules at this point (on paper.).
FWIW to piggyback on the discussion of how many losses can an A10 team have to get at large consideration, I think UR's number for next season drops to 6 heading into the A10 tourney, which would be a 7 loss team for at large consideration. Against this schedule I don't think something like 23-8 gets a bid bc the 8 losses would either be against the few "good" teams or just total anchors, unless UR somehow manages to lose almost exclusively to the A10 middle class and OOC wins then outperform our expectations.
FWIW to piggyback on the discussion of how many losses can an A10 team have to get at large consideration, I think UR's number for next season drops to 6 heading into the A10 tourney, which would be a 7 loss team for at large consideration. Against this schedule I don't think something like 23-8 gets a bid bc the 8 losses would either be against the few "good" teams or just total anchors, unless UR somehow manages to lose almost exclusively to the A10 middle class and OOC wins then outperform our expectations.
I think once we have the final schedule released - knowing if Clemson is one there and how they fill the last game, will determine - but I agree with you. I think its more likely for UR to be under 8 losses. I think 23-8 could be good enough, but then your talking about who did we beat, who were the losses, etc.
We have to go 12-1 OOC? So, if we "only" go 11-2 OOC and then go 14-4 IC, you dont think 25-6 will be good enough?
fwiw GW is hosting P6 South Carolina at home. Now I'd put Clemson above South Carolina, but USC was in the Final4 not long ago, it's at least close. Not easy but it can be done. And we've done it too - u can get some p6s or others like a memphis cincinnati - but we just haven't last few years. Tho we were due to have H&H w Cincy which got canceled due to Covid & then there was a coaching change.
We should be building a schedule that is fun for our fans too. When was the last time we got at an large bid (**rhetorical question**)?! I know we like to debate NET and SOS on this board but in reality having a “fun” schedule is the only thing I care about (coincidentally I also believe it helps our tournament chances).
I’ll go out on a limb and say Drake is the favorite to win their conference this year.
Lunardi has them slotted in as the AQ (and only) bid from the MVC.
Torvik also has them as the top-rated MVC squad, for whatever that's worth in preseason modeling.
Of course, it doesn't hurt that Loyola has cleared out of the way for them.
I'll also go out on a limb and say that Drake will continue to play only music by Drake at home for their pregame routine. Such a good memory of the game in Des Moines until the last 6 minutes.
I think I'd rather listen to music by the Drake basketball team than by the other Drake.
They should be the top team in that league, but a lot will depend on their OOC schedule. They will need a lot more than us and Memphis if they have dreams of an at-large bid, so I wonder what their OOC schedule will look at. Also - with the loss of Loyola, who usually scheduled pretty good OOC and provided good numbers in conference, their conference takes a hit and schedule takes a hit because you lose 2 games vs. Loyola. So they need to likely replace that with a tougher OOC schedule. Something to keep an eye on as a tougher OOC schedule will mean better numbers for UR when they play and hopefully beat them. At that point - its just a computer numbers game.
That is an interesting thought.
If you could pick one team from the conferences below to play on our schedule - which team would you pick?
ACC
Big Ten
SEC
Big East
ACC - I'd like to get the annual Wake game back, but for a one timer I'd go with UVA
Big Ten - Michigan
SEC - Kentucky
Big East - Georgetown
G'town was my first instinct, but they're going to have to get better so they're not a drag on our schedule.
I’ll go w teams we haven’t played in a long time or maybe ever that I remember bc think cool to play a new big name team. We have been fortunate to play some of the biggest blue bloods more “recently” like Kentucky UNC Kansas Indiana UCLA.
acc - Duke (think last time was 1990 ncaa tournament)
Big 10 - Michigan
Big 12 - Texas
SEC - Tennessee or LSU
Big East - Villanova (we’ve played them, even at home, but much further back than gtown St. John’s providence)
Right. SLU's schedule is top notch. It is a schedule for a team that wants to be in at large consideration. Drake is one of our biggest games. On SLU's schedule, it is probably their 5th or 6th best game.
It doesn't matter what SLU's schedule looks like. With 15 teams in our conference, yes, maybe we can find a team like SLU that has a solid looking schedule. Who cares? Their schedule will not determine our tournament chances. Like Sman said, it very well could end up hurting SLU's. And, Drake might be our best game, and it might not be. Maybe it will be Clemson, St. John's/Temple, or Syracuse. Looking at Torvik's pre season rankings, he has St. John's and Clemson ahead of Drake:
St. John's 46/Temple 64
Clemson 56
Drake 58
Syracuse 78
Every year, it seems like we hear a lot of concern about our OOC schedule, but, when has it ever cost us an at large? The only issues we have had a few times is we have not won enough of our games, either IC or OOC, not who we have played. Look at our 3 most recent NIT seasons:
2021: Beat Ky. and went 6-2 OOC but only went 6-5 IC.
2017: Went a very disappointing 6-6 OOC, and 13-5 IC. We played 4 top 100 teams OOC, and went 0-4 against them, losing to Maryland, Bucknell, Wake, and Texas Tech, and lost to 2 others. Our OOC SOS was ranked 218 by Torvik and 214 by Kenpom. Go 9-3 and 22-8 with this schedule and we likely get in the dance.
2015: Went a very disappointing 7-6 OOC, and 12-6 IC, and were still in the 1st 4 teams out of the dance, even though our OOC schedule was ranked 172 by Torvik and 177 by Kenpom. Just like 2017, we played 4 top 100 teams, losing to ODU, NC State, No. Iowa, and Wake, and went 0-4, and lost to 2 others. Considering we were in the first 4 out, just go 8-5 and 20-11 and we probably get in that year. But, really we should have gone at least 10-3 and 22-9 and left no doubts.
Bottom line: Just win. The schedule had nothing to do with us missing the dance. We simply did not win enough those years.
St. John's 46/Temple 64
Clemson 56
Drake 58
Syracuse 78
Every year, it seems like we hear a lot of concern about our OOC schedule, but, when has it ever cost us an at large? The only issues we have had a few times is we have not won enough of our games, either IC or OOC, not who we have played. Look at our 3 most recent NIT seasons:
2021: Beat Ky. and went 6-2 OOC but only went 6-5 IC.
2017: Went a very disappointing 6-6 OOC, and 13-5 IC. We played 4 top 100 teams OOC, and went 0-4 against them, losing to Maryland, Bucknell, Wake, and Texas Tech, and lost to 2 others. Our OOC SOS was ranked 218 by Torvik and 214 by Kenpom. Go 9-3 and 22-8 with this schedule and we likely get in the dance.
2015: Went a very disappointing 7-6 OOC, and 12-6 IC, and were still in the 1st 4 teams out of the dance, even though our OOC schedule was ranked 172 by Torvik and 177 by Kenpom. Just like 2017, we played 4 top 100 teams, losing to ODU, NC State, No. Iowa, and Wake, and went 0-4, and lost to 2 others. Considering we were in the first 4 out, just go 8-5 and 20-11 and we probably get in that year. But, really we should have gone at least 10-3 and 22-9 and left no doubts.
Bottom line: Just win. The schedule had nothing to do with us missing the dance. We simply did not win enough those years.
A bad schedule can keep you out - but that has not really happened to us. If you have a bad schedule and win a lot of games - you might not make it because of the schedule.
But if you have a good schedule, and win enough games - you will make it.
I agree - I don't think we have ever been in the situation where we won enough games, sat on the bubble and didn't make it and could blame the schedule. Reason being - we never won enough games. Only year you could argue this was I think in 2015 we were a 1 seed in the NIT, so we just missed NCAA - but that was a surprise to many. But if you go back and look at that schedule - it was the losses that killed us that year. Loss to ODU, JMU, Wake, Northeastern, and loss early in A10 tourney to VCU. That year we also played Northern Iowa (loss), NC State (loss). We just did not win a big game in OOC and luckily finished strong in A10 play (12-6) . So I would not say the schedule kept us out that year - we just didn't play well early in the year.
One of the problems I've had with us over the Mooney era is that we always, ALWAYS lose a couple OOC games we have absolutely no business losing. So it would be one thing if we scheduled a bunch of dogs but went 14-0 against them. That's great. Problem is we always go 9-5 or 10-4 no matter who we play. In that case, we might as well play a bunch of top-25 teams and at least that way we can use the VCU strategy of "Hey, we have no bad losses! (even though we have 8 losses)..."
Its a fine line. Especially in the computer age where we have already discussed here - there are a million metrics to use, but at the end of the day - no one metric is the definitive answer, the voting still comes down to humans saying YES or NO. The issue I think also is that we can't schedule hard like VCU, because in order to do so - you have to be good consistently, so that if you do beat one those bigger problems - it also can't be a bad loss for them. This is something VCU has built with their consistent appearances.
UR has sort of been in no mans land. We are in that middle tier, where if a bigger program beats us - they are hoping we go one to have a good year, but likely we finish middle of the pack in the A10. And yet, on a good night - we can beat anyone - so we could end up being a "bad loss" for some teams if they lose to us. So then teams avoid us from a scheduling point of view because most years - we are no help to them.
I think the other argument that holds water is playing a tough opponents gets the team ready for the rigors of conference ball. Even if you lose some of those games, if you play a really good team close, it builds confidence and exposes your young team to challenging situations and environments. Playing a bunch of cupcakes does none of that.
Agreed - and I like to think playing a tougher schedule, even if you lose - prepares you for a run in the A10 tourney, if you need one to make the NCAA tourney.
But I guess the question is - do you think we are purposely scheduling on the lighter side most years, or do you think teams don't want to play us because of our "no mans land" status where we are not a good win for opponents and might be a bad loss, OR does our staff not have the connections/relationships to make a very tough OOC schedule.
My opinion - I think we have been caught in no mans land, and landing tough games is difficult.
of course u have to win a certain amount but as EL said if we load up too easy we lose a couple of those anyway. We have the hard schedule example with extra losses here at U of R too - see 2004 w Wainwright. If I'm on the bubble I want to have the harder schedule, wouldn't you? Think that is pretty easy call. That's bc it means you almost assuredly have some stronger wins.
Many of you r talking about what gets you to the bubble. That's not our ceiling as a program. You can be solidly in & off the bubble. We've been a 7 seed. Many A10 teams have been solidly off the bubble. And in order to do that I think you need to schedule accordingly which btw doesn't mean murderers row. If we want to be 5-9 seeds occasionally that takes OOC wins not just A10. The A10 has moved down the league rankings remember too. We're not the 7th hardest league we're more like 10th.
Yeah you can get in with some gangbuster record overall, but when exactly have we had 3, 4, 5 losses total in a season. I'd love that record believe me but it doesn't happen here. I acknowledge there are multiple schools of thought but we have proven to get a bid or would have gotten a bid with more losses against an above average or better schedule. I haven't seen the weak ass schedule work for a Richmond. The surprise year we were NIT 1 seed feels like an outlier.
Many of you r talking about what gets you to the bubble. That's not our ceiling as a program. You can be solidly in & off the bubble. We've been a 7 seed. Many A10 teams have been solidly off the bubble. And in order to do that I think you need to schedule accordingly which btw doesn't mean murderers row. If we want to be 5-9 seeds occasionally that takes OOC wins not just A10. The A10 has moved down the league rankings remember too. We're not the 7th hardest league we're more like 10th.
Yeah you can get in with some gangbuster record overall, but when exactly have we had 3, 4, 5 losses total in a season. I'd love that record believe me but it doesn't happen here. I acknowledge there are multiple schools of thought but we have proven to get a bid or would have gotten a bid with more losses against an above average or better schedule. I haven't seen the weak ass schedule work for a Richmond. The surprise year we were NIT 1 seed feels like an outlier.
Yes we underperformed until the A10 tourney. That's widely accepted. We can't underperform by a lot & expect to get in. We went 10-8 in A10. That wasn't getting us close to the bubble regardless.
Also remember last year's OOC wasn't that hard. We thought it would be...it happens. Maybe this year's will end up harder instead, let's hope and we still have 1 more to go. But what we avoided last year was the really bad games. This year we have 5 250+ games possibly 300+. That's an issue imo.
There’s limited value to overscheduling, particularly if you make a habit of losing those tough games. It’s just as likely to demoralize the team as it is to “prepare” them.
but I will say if we’re going to lose a bunch of ooc games which we seem to have a tendency to, I’d much rather lose them to better teams. It’s definitely demoralizing to everyone when we lose to jmu…
but I will say if we’re going to lose a bunch of ooc games which we seem to have a tendency to, I’d much rather lose them to better teams. It’s definitely demoralizing to everyone when we lose to jmu…
I don't think we could overschedule or schedule tougher if we wanted to. I think its more about UR has been in this no mans land, middle ground of the A10 for much of the last 10 years. If your consistently good - you can get better games because even good teams of power conferences will play you because if they win - its a good win. If they lose - it doesn't hurt much, cause its a "good" or "tough" loss. On the flip side - if your consistently bad as a team and a bottom feeder of the A10 - you could probably schedule hard, because your so bad teams don't worry about losing to you. But to that point - if your a bottom team in the A10, like a Fordham has been - your probably scheduling light to rack up wins and save your job.
But if you in the middle. Like we have been. We are generally a good team each year. Last year our NET was 84 and BPI was 76 and we had 24 wins and made the NCAA tourney. So if I had to guess without doing much research, I would assume we generally fall between 50-75 in our good years, and then 75 to over 100 in our average or bad years. So if a power team plays us - they know it will likely be a close and tough game, but not one that reallys moves their needle too much on their resume if they beat us. But if they lose to us, it has potential to bring down their rankings. This is likely why we are so reliant on the showcase tourney's to get us games with bigger schools, cause they have no choice.
But if you in the middle. Like we have been. We are generally a good team each year. Last year our NET was 84 and BPI was 76 and we had 24 wins and made the NCAA tourney. So if I had to guess without doing much research, I would assume we generally fall between 50-75 in our good years, and then 75 to over 100 in our average or bad years. So if a power team plays us - they know it will likely be a close and tough game, but not one that reallys moves their needle too much on their resume if they beat us. But if they lose to us, it has potential to bring down their rankings. This is likely why we are so reliant on the showcase tourney's to get us games with bigger schools, cause they have no choice.
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Great game. If we can add one more comparable game to our schedule for our final game, I think we can salvage an OOC schedule that will not significantly hamper our at large resume. Of course, we can't lose any of the 5 landmines Quad 4 games we have already scheduled.
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