We have no shot at an at-large. None. Highest RPI possible (win out, win 2 in A-10 including another win over VCU and lose to DAyton in final) is probably just barely in or just barely out of Top 50 and an RPI in that range won't generally do it and to do it, you need something else to hang your hat on. We got nothing to hang our hat on.
But, forget RPI. The Committee for the past several years has deemphasized that and (despite what others say) has heavily emphasized what you do in your Non-conference schedule. This will be especially true for any A-10 team this year. The A-10 is undeniably down. Thus any results in the A-10 the Committee will want to "validate". This has included looking at the quality of the OOC schedule (did you play a tough schedule) and a qualitative analysis of your results (ok - - great, you played 4 Top 10 schools but you got waxed by 30 every time). Our OOC schedule was weak by at-large standards and our results weaker yet. There is not a single positive to that portion of the schedule and many, many bad things. Lost at home to ODU, lost to ORU, lost to every borderline decent team we played (Md., Texas Tech, Wake, Bucknell). No one of those borderline losses is by itself a bad loss, but none of those teams is a lock at-large and we lost to all of them.
Unfortunately, even beating up on the (bad this year) A-10 isn't going to get us a sniff. Just win the A-10 tourney and go from there!
