what are the chances

[I-M-UR]

We'll end up in the first round (play in) round? The 3 teams are tied for the 4th position at 5-9, we're 6-8. We've all got 4 games left We've go 2 top have teams to play GW and Day (and one the four Duq)
St L has 3 top teams, U Mass 2, Duq 2 (and UR).

 

[fan2011]

We'll end up in the first round (play in) round? The 3 teams are tied for the 4th position at 5-9, we're 6-8. We've all got 4 games left We've go 2 top have teams to play GW and Day (and one the four Duq)
St L has 3 top teams, U Mass 2, Duq 2 (and UR).

Essentially 3%. The only way we end up without a 1st round bye is if we lose out, there is no way 3 of the bottom 6 are going to win 3+ of their last 4 games. The probability of us losing out is ~3%. The probability of us winning out is 9%.

 

[urmite]

Another point, don't we have the tie breaker over 4 of the 6 teams behind us? Wouldn't they need to pass not equal us?

We could lose to Duquesne so they could pass us if we finish 1-3, but 2 more would need to go 3-1...

 

[urmite]

4 teams tied for 12th at 5-10...