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sdspider

sdspider

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Nov 19, 2003
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Looking at the computer numbers, we are similar across the board with the Minutemen. This will be their senior night and they have seeding to play for so think they would be fired up. I have been impressed with our D and being able to lockdown the opposing teams best players, so if we can do that and keep the inside and outside offensive balance going, we have a good chance.

Would be a huge win for us on the road, in light of the standings and heading into the confernce tourney on a roll. Confidence should be sky high now, four wins in a row and counting. Go Spiders!
 
doing a stat comparison, I would think they are favored since the game is at UMass, but I think we have a real shot at winning this one.
 
We usually match up well with them. I would say the only place I might expect them to beat us is up there, but down here or at a neutral site we'd win by 7-10 points. This will be a test of our new-found road abilities. I think we find a way to get it done and pay them back for that debacle up there a couple years ago that we gave away down the stretch.

UR 66, UMass 59.
 
Kenny is hedging his bets. We are a point favorite.
We are favored in our last two, UMass is a dog in their last two.
Yet he predicts us both to be 1-1.

I am a bit worried about UMass' emotional motivation. And hope no ANO doesn't leave any chance for LaLanne to be rejuvenated.
 
Haven't watched them this year, but think it's a toss up when playing up there. Their length is still there and has bothered our guards in years past. And we know what that means on the boards. But think the key comes down to TA and TJ taking control, which will then open up opportunities for K0 and SDJ. No matter what, it's always a battle with them, so we'll have to come out with high energy and get a lead early to silence the Senior Night crowd.
 
Originally posted by Eight Legger:
We usually match up well with them. I would say the only place I might expect them to beat us is up there, but down here or at a neutral site we'd win by 7-10 points.
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Agree, if this game was at our place, I think we win quite handily. Up there, I'm nervous. We haven't played well in there building (of course, we could say that about a lot of away venues the last 4 years) and with it being senior night, we are going to have probably play one of our best games of the year to come out with the W.
 
Kenpom doesn't hedge his bets. He does no manual input for any of the predictions on his site, they are all done by computer based on box score and play-by-play information.

Kenpom looks at each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies, adjusted for strength of opponent, and uses them along with home court advantage to predict the likelihood each team has of winning. He then converts this likelihood into a predicted score based on the teams' average tempos.

His algorithm predicts we have a 55% chance to beat UMass and 95% chance to beat SLU. To predict the final records of teams I am pretty sure he does simulations based on those win totals to find the most likely outcome. Those simulations give the most likely outcome to be 1-1. Of course with only 2 games left it is easy enough to directly calculate the probability of each outcome, but this becomes exponentially more difficult when there are more unplayed games which is why he is probably using a simulation.

Kenpom has correctly predicted 92 of 112 A10 games so far this season (75%). Since many of the games he didn't predict correctly he only had ~50-60% confidence in anyway I would say his system has been very successful, and is by far the best I have been able to find.


This post was edited on 3/2 12:50 AM by fan2011
 
forget numbers or how we have played against common opponents, it is a road game so a very tough deal for us. we are playing better, have won on the road now, but, it is a road game so count on a very tough outing. if we shoot well, we win, if not, who knows.
 
2011,

I actually know that his 1-1 comes from there being variable outcomes at the point in time. My comment was more a joke about rounding than anything else. Is Wednesday night really 55% or maybe 54.921%?

Basically our chance of winning more than half the time Wednesday is very similar to our chance of losing Saturday...
 
UMASS always seems to be a team that gets very frustrated by the way we play - both on offense and defense. If we hit some early shots, I like our chances.
 
Originally posted by fan2011:

Kenpom has correctly predicted 92 of 112 A10 games so far this season (75%). Since many of the games he didn't predict correctly he only had ~50-60% confidence in anyway I would say his system has been very successful, and is by far the best I have been able to find.



This post was edited on 3/2 12:50 AM by fan2011
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I personally don't find 75% all that impressive. Anytime a top team VCU, Dayton, Davidson, Rhody, UMass, UR plays a bottom feeder in the league (Fordham, Duquense, Mason, St. Louis) that should be easy pick. Then throw in your home-away variations with a strong bias towards home teams in most cases, (anytime Davidson, Dayton, UR play at home, that is a pretty safe play, that is probably 60% plus of all A-10 games right there and finally looking at a team's injury status and recent play often makes any number of other games a strong safe play.

Which means that he is pretty much a coin flip on any of the true toss up games (games that pit upper echelon teams vs. each other, mid pack teams against each other, and lower tier teams against each other).

I think an astute A-10 analyst could probably do as well, possibly better than Kenpom's computer algorithm. This is like bracketologist claiming that got 97% of the picks right in there final bracket, well of course they did because any stooge could pick 97% of the teams that will get in the tournament at that bottom between auto-qualifiers and teams that are sure locks, you only have a handful of teams that are bubble teams at any rate.
 
Originally posted by 97spiderfan:
Originally posted by fan2011:

Kenpom has correctly predicted 92 of 112 A10 games so far this season (75%). Since many of the games he didn't predict correctly he only had ~50-60% confidence in anyway I would say his system has been very successful, and is by far the best I have been able to find.



This post was edited on 3/2 12:50 AM by fan2011
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I personally don't find 75% all that impressive. Anytime a top team VCU, Dayton, Davidson, Rhody, UMass, UR plays a bottom feeder in the league (Fordham, Duquense, Mason, St. Louis) that should be easy pick. Then throw in your home-away variations with a strong bias towards home teams in most cases, (anytime Davidson, Dayton, UR play at home, that is a pretty safe play, that is probably 60% plus of all A-10 games right there and finally looking at a team's injury status and recent play often makes any number of other games a strong safe play.

Which means that he is pretty much a coin flip on any of the true toss up games (games that pit upper echelon teams vs. each other, mid pack teams against each other, and lower tier teams against each other).

I think an astute A-10 analyst could probably do as well, possibly better than Kenpom's computer algorithm. This is like bracketologist claiming that got 97% of the picks right in there final bracket, well of course they did because any stooge could pick 97% of the teams that will get in the tournament at that bottom between auto-qualifiers and teams that are sure locks, you only have a handful of teams that are bubble teams at any rate.
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Go over to the A10 message board and look at the A10 weekly contest, most people get ~50% of their picks right. Kenpom has outperformed every single person in that contest, beating most by an incredibly large margin. You may not think 75% is very good, but it is by far the best out of any predictive system I have seen. I think the reason it may not be impressive to you is because you have no reference to compare it to. Next year try to pick the winner of every A10 game and see if you can beat 75%.
 
Alright fan, I'll go ahead and pick for the week all of the A-10 games (save the UR-UMass game because I feel I have a bias on that one that will skew my pick):

Dayton-Rhody: Dayton
Dayton-LaSalle: Dayton
Davidson-VCU: Davidson
Davidson-Duq: Davidson
VCU-Mason: VCU
Rhody-St Joes: Rhody
Richmond-St Louis: Richmond
GW-Mason: GW
Bonnie-St. Louis: Bonnie
Bonnie-Fordham: Bonnie
LaSalle-St Joes: St. Joes
Duq-Fordham: Fordham
UMass-GW: GW

I need to get 10 out of 13 to beat Mr. Ken Pom's computer. I actually do not like my odds at all.
 
Team Ranking has us 64 U Mass 65. Probably more realistic. This certainly isn't a tournament game (lose and go home) but it's huge in our hopes to advance deep into the A10 tournament.
 
If Spiders are at least +5 on turnover margin and make eight 3-pointers, they win this one.

UMass will dominate the glass so the turnovers become very important.
 
Originally posted by SFspidur:
92 out of 112 is 82%.
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I sure am good at math. I think I used 122 instead of 112.


This post was edited on 3/2 11:33 AM by fan2011
 
What! Now I have to 11 out of 13 for the week.
frown.r191677.gif
 
97 - where is your prediction for UR vs U Mass? Or are you leaving off the hard ones...
 
Fan2011, that is a good % for picking A10 winners. KP is a site I like a lot also but I think you give them more credence than is warranted. I LOL when you previously stated KP game predictions moves the Vegas betting numbers. You do know that isn't true?
 
Originally posted by SouthJerseySpiderFan:
Fan2011, that is a good % for picking A10 winners. KP is a site I like a lot also but I think you give them more credence than is warranted. I LOL when you previously stated KP game predictions moves the Vegas betting numbers. You do know that isn't true?
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I won't deny I probably overvalue kenpom. I can't help myself, I like all the stats he makes available. Me saying his predictions have an effect in vegas was due to my memory embellishing a reply he had to an interview question a couple years ago, as memories often do.

Q: Have you ever felt the (at least fleeting) urge to post an exaggerated number on your site and then legally bet the other side in Vegas?

A: Not really, but there was the infamous incident a couple years back where a glitch in my code resulted in a Maryland/Seattle game having an unreasonably low tempo prediction. A sportsbook that I won't name basically posted my total for the game, and I think the number ended up moving as much as any total in the history of basketball. (Probably not, but I think it moved like 20 points before it was taken down.)


This post was edited on 3/2 2:18 PM by fan2011
 
KP is my fav also. Interviewer tried to get on his good side it appears and he gave I guess an isolated answer. From the little I know about lines it's almost always the money wagered that dictates which way it moves. Vegas only wants equal money bet on each side so they can get the service fee rewards. They don't gamble, they let others do it.

Now do some bettors probably follow KP to heart and bet accordingly to how they see it without analyzing the stats shown? Probably without question they do. Not many games on tap tonight, I will do some research on these games and how they relate to KP's predicted outcomes.
 
Lines are set by Vegas and then move when people bet on them. My feeling is both the original line and the following movement are at least partially influenced by kenpom, but also by whatever other information the bettors have available and trust.
 
Originally posted by SouthJerseySpiderFan:
KP is my fav also. Interviewer tried to get on his good side it appears and he gave I guess an isolated answer. From the little I know about lines it's almost always the money wagered that dictates which way it moves. Vegas only wants equal money bet on each side so they can get the service fee rewards. They don't gamble, they let others do it.

Now do some bettors probably follow KP to heart and bet accordingly to how they see it without analyzing the stats shown? Probably without question they do. Not many games on tap tonight, I will do some research on these games and how they relate to KP's predicted outcomes.
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I could easily be wrong (again!), but I believe the opening line of every A-10 game I have checked this season has been within 1/2 point of the Kenpom Prediction.

The closing line is totally based on the money wagered on each side.

I wouldn't be surprised if Vegas doesn't often use the computer model numbers as a starting point, especially on smaller games (for instance how much of their own research would Vegas do to set the opening line for Radford/High Point?).
 
Yes lines are set by people who used some sort of computer models to assist them and especially less human decision making in the obscure ones urmite mentioned is my belief. No other way I see it can be done. All I stated was a rebuttal to what 2011 previously stated that the outcome margin predicted by KP moves the Vegas line closer to what KP predicts. He answered that wasn't what he meant entirely.
 
Ok, here's the info. for the 4 games tonight. I went to vegasinsider.com for the lines. Go down to matchups and click.

UVA opened as -6 fav and down to -5.5 and KP has them winning 60-53
Texas opened as -3 fav and up to -4 and KP has them winning 63-62
VTech opened as -1.5 fav and down to +1 dog and KP has VTech winning 68-66
IowaSt opened as -4 fav and up to -5.5 and KP has them winning 78-76

Now above is just an isolated example but in all 4 games the bettors went against what KP predicted would happened and bet the other side. That is under the idea that what team the public bets on moves the line. Numbers could change up to game time of course. Probably days where KP's predictions end up on right side too. Flip the coin.
 
In a vacuum, or years ago, the opening line was set to get an equal amount of money on either side of it. It would shift to balance out the bets.

To a degree it still does, but with a bit of a caveat. Now Vegas has to contend with gambling cartels betting large on one side to shift the line, and then dumping an even bigger bet on the other side of the now more favorable line. The line is a war zone, and opening lines and later shifts may not necessarily reflect the midpoint any more. Overall, they want the money split on both sides, but it's a bit of a misrepresentation to suggest the closing line or the offered line at any one point represents half and half.

Also, don't forget there are variations of, and rarely consensus, on the line at different outposts.

When you see a line swing wildly you might want to pay attention to that game. Sometimes it means a fix, but more often that not, smart insider information has swung the big money into play.



This post was edited on 3/3 11:39 AM by The Vault
 
Back to UMass.

and at risk of incurring fan2011's wrath, I present Kenpom's luck rankings

UMass #26
UR #331

I would interpret that as UMass has won more games than their average play would indicate, and UR has won less.

Hopefully this won't come into play tomorrow night.
 
I'm wondering how much money gets bet, on UR games? Wouldn't think it was much, but I'd like to know, maybe it's a lot..
 
Originally posted by MolivaManiac:
We opened as a 1 point underdog and now the line is a Pick 'em.
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So what you are saying is Virginia Tech would be favored over both of them according to RTD logic?
 
We're outplaying them, great hustle on rebounds. If we could have made a few more layups we'd be up 10
 
Our main advantage over UMass is their lack of discipline, which is showing itself so far. We are continuing to play with much more confidence.
 
I agree. tempo slowed and feel better about that, but gotta shoot better than 40.7%
 
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