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Playoff Projection from Stats

iSpider

Graduate Assistant
Dec 31, 2007
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We beat Nova and it is slightly reasonable to start talking playoffs at 6-1, but right now no way.
 
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We played extremely well and knocked off UVA. (a dream come true) Since then we've beaten Norfolk st. 1-5 Colgate 1-4 Towson 1-4 and a good but difficult OT win at Albany 4-1, and lost to Stony Brook 3-2. We need a few more wins and at least a win over JMU or Nova, before we even start pondering post season.
 
Interesting stat, the FCS teams we have played are a combined 1-8 since we have played them (1-4 if you ignore Norfolk State). Every team we have played has lost their next game. Is this a function of us playing bad teams or teams getting up to play us and having a letdown the following week(s)? Probably a combination of both. It will be interesting to see what Albany does at Maine this week.
 
Interesting stat, the FCS teams we have played are a combined 1-8 since we have played them (1-4 if you ignore Norfolk State). Every team we have played has lost their next game. Is this a function of us playing bad teams or teams getting up to play us and having a letdown the following week(s)? Probably a combination of both. It will be interesting to see what Albany does at Maine this week.
would add another possible factor...the Spiders have played physical, tough football...

just speculating, but it's possible Stony B, Colgate and Towson were "beat up" going into their following games...

Go Spiders!
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Nova has just played played back-to-back touch football games against the Little Sisters of
The Holy Rosary and the Little Sisters of the Immaculate Conception.
 
We need to run the ball. We are a good running team when we stick to it. Thompson is a better runner than blocker at this point because he is inexperienced. I know Nova's D is good, but we need to stay balanced.
 
I hope we go to the I formation as a base and establish the run so we can use playaction passes to freeze Nova's LBs. I also think some quick passes into flat early will help Kyle get into a rhythm.
 
I think reality is somewhat simple. The D (aside from UVA) has been same old, same old as the prior few years. The UVA game now appears to be an anomaly on that side of the ball. This leaves the offense having to be great for us to win the upcoming bigger, tougher games. So far, the QB has just been OK and we can't be any better than what he plays. Defensively, I think we are what we are at this point, but offensively we can be still be great but #5 has to be great for that to happen. Its not only interceptions (which were a concern I had hoped he'd grow out of), but he's left a lot of plays out there with some accuracy problems as well.

If he lives up to his pre-season player of the year hype, we'll win our share of these biggies. If he plays only like he has since UVA, we'll be talking about what could have been as we watch JMU, NOva, UNH and 20 others try to stop the NDSU train!
 
We need to run the ball. We are a good running team when we stick to it. Thompson is a better runner than blocker at this point because he is inexperienced. I know Nova's D is good, but we need to stay balanced.

Completely agree. I'd like to see us using our bigger sets and run the ball 40 times or more. Loosen things up for big shots on PA Passes.
 
D is giving up 278.5 yards per game - a FBS and two top 25 FCS opponents, all wins. What's wrong with the D????

It is the O that is struggling for consistently.
 
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Spider D is first in the conference in pass D (139.0/game), fourth in run D (139.5/game), and second in total D (to Villanova), but seventh in points allowed (25.2/game). They have played great, but put in position of defending short field too often due to special teams and O turnovers.
 
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D is giving up 278.5 yards per game - a FBS and two top 25 FCS opponents, all wins. What's wrong with the D????

It is the O that is struggling for consistently.

Agree. We seem to give up a few more big plays this year but we take more chances. I'm ok with that.
 
I think reality is somewhat simple. The D (aside from UVA) has been same old, same old as the prior few years. The UVA game now appears to be an anomaly on that side of the ball. This leaves the offense having to be great for us to win the upcoming bigger, tougher games. So far, the QB has just been OK and we can't be any better than what he plays. Defensively, I think we are what we are at this point, but offensively we can be still be great but #5 has to be great for that to happen. Its not only interceptions (which were a concern I had hoped he'd grow out of), but he's left a lot of plays out there with some accuracy problems as well.

If he lives up to his pre-season player of the year hype, we'll win our share of these biggies. If he plays only like he has since UVA, we'll be talking about what could have been as we watch JMU, NOva, UNH and 20 others try to stop the NDSU train!

I couldn't disagree more about the same old, same old D (and thought so prior to yesterday's shutout). Our corners play much tighter coverage and our pass rush is more aggressive.
 
We give up 1-2 plays a game where the deep out is wide open. If they make the throw, good for them, but it happens much less than it used to. We also play more man coverage, which we are proving you don't have to play great to get stops. A lot of FCS QBs can't make the 1-on-1 throws and we get a fair amount of stops that way. We are also getting much more pressure from just the front 4.
 
It seems we have started to make fewer stupid mistakes. Penalties before snap and after the whistle and turning ball over. Losing Jones is a heart breaker, but they overcame that this week against a very good team. Last thought, even though the offensive line isn't blowing anyone off the ball early, they are protecting Lauletta nicely and wearing down the opponent's Dline late in the game.
 
Interesting stat, the FCS teams we have played are a combined 1-8 since we have played them (1-4 if you ignore Norfolk State). Every team we have played has lost their next game. Is this a function of us playing bad teams or teams getting up to play us and having a letdown the following week(s)? Probably a combination of both. It will be interesting to see what Albany does at Maine this week.

Albany continued the trend. Should we bet the house is on Nova to lose at home to Albany or will they be the Spiders first opponent to win the week after playing us?
 
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