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Mens 2024 - 2025 Polls/Rankings

I have expectations of winning.

You can misinterpret it as negativity over low preseason wins expectations, couch it any way you want. I don't care. But I expect yearly, to be a program that expects 20 wins as a baseline, with spikes from there. 2/3 wins. Not 55%. 66% baseline.

If we lose to W&M ever, or Bucknell given the current state of their program compared to ours, something is wrong. Even having doubts about winning these games or listing them as potential pitfalls, is something that I refuse to do. If our program can't convince outsiders that we can win these games, either we are terrible at marketing ourselves (we are) or we are sandbagging our program for some unknown reason (to outperform expectations? No idea why they'd go this route publicly.) Or people think we legitimately don't have the talent to do it, which should never be the case, given our program resources.

I think we should win virtually every OOC game, Auburn excepted.
 
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brooklyn brownstone said:
I have expectations of winning.

You can misinterpret it as negativity over low preseason wins expectations, couch it any way you want. I don't care. But I expect yearly, to be a program that expects 20 wins as a baseline, with spikes from there. 2/3 wins. Not 55%. 66% baseline.

If we lose to W&M ever, or Bucknell given the current state of their program compared to ours, something is wrong. Even having doubts about winning these games or listing them as potential pitfalls, is something that I refuse to do. If our program can't convince outsiders that we can win these games, either we are terrible at marketing ourselves (we are) or we are sandbagging our program for some unknown reason (to outperform expectations? No idea why they'd go this route publicly.) Or people think we legitimately don't have the talent to do it, which should never be the case, given our program resources.

I think we should win virtually every OOC game, Auburn excepted.
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Many preseason prediction show a very low away winning percentage for nearly every team…

Certainly doesn’t mean it will happen…
 
urmite said:
What was our preseason KenPom rank, and A10 rank last season?
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Preseason was 126, final was 89. Not a huge swing. A10 was very, very weak last year. Kenpoms numbers are more about the conference improving than Richmond being worse.

Additionally, it is very hard for computer models to take into account every piece of info for every team. All they have is past on court performance for the players on the team, and historical team performance. When there are so many unknowns on the roster they tend to just use historical performance over the past 5 or so years. That is what is giving us these rankings.
 
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If they used historical performance the last 5 years, we would certainly be a lot higher than 11th.

2020: 14-4 2nd.
2021: 6-5 8th( and a strange covid 8th because 7-4 was 3rd that year).
2022: 10-8 6th.
2023: 7-11 11th.
2024: 15-3 1st.

This would average us between 5th or 6th if they used historical performance over the last 5 years.
 
brooklyn brownstone said:
I have expectations of winning.

You can misinterpret it as negativity over low preseason wins expectations, couch it any way you want. I don't care. But I expect yearly, to be a program that expects 20 wins as a baseline, with spikes from there. 2/3 wins. Not 55%. 66% baseline.

If we lose to W&M ever, or Bucknell given the current state of their program compared to ours, something is wrong. Even having doubts about winning these games or listing them as potential pitfalls, is something that I refuse to do. If our program can't convince outsiders that we can win these games, either we are terrible at marketing ourselves (we are) or we are sandbagging our program for some unknown reason (to outperform expectations? No idea why they'd go this route publicly.) Or people think we legitimately don't have the talent to do it, which should never be the case, given our program resources.

I think we should win virtually every OOC game, Auburn excepted.
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I've brought this up before. There is plenty of that at Richmond. imo they prefer lower expectations. then can say we outperformed them. even tho if u look at historical Mooney performance in A10 vs. preseason polls, we do not. many of our fans minimize our ceiling and expectations too. so it is not just within the Robins Center although that is the side that carries more weight. We are not allowed to increase expectations with a 20 year dean of the A10 coach - it makes no difference to many even tho we see teams expectations skyrocket in sports based on who a team has as their coach or when they make a hire.

Some teams embrace high expectations - and we only have to look at our crosstown rival to see a close example. That type of thing is embedded in a program or school culture and it is something I have long wished would change. Because I do think it holds us back and bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. I really thought it was changing when we moved to the A10 but it did not. We prefer comfortableness here.
 
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fan2011 said:
Preseason was 126, final was 89. Not a huge swing. A10 was very, very weak last year. Kenpoms numbers are more about the conference improving than Richmond being worse.

Additionally, it is very hard for computer models to take into account every piece of info for every team. All they have is past on court performance for the players on the team, and historical team performance. When there are so many unknowns on the roster they tend to just use historical performance over the past 5 or so years. That is what is giving us these rankings.
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I feel like there were a few prediction of us being 11th in a weak A10. But can’t remember if those were human or computer.
 
VT4700 said:
If they used historical performance the last 5 years, we would certainly be a lot higher than 11th.

2020: 14-4 2nd.
2021: 6-5 8th( and a strange covid 8th because 7-4 was 3rd that year).
2022: 10-8 6th.
2023: 7-11 11th.
2024: 15-3 1st.

This would average us between 5th or 6th if they used historical performance over the last 5 years.
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You don't take the last 5 conference placements and back-out ratings from there, haha. I think a lot of people struggle thinking about calculating preseason ratings for the entirety of NCAA D1 basketball instead of being hyper-focused on an individual team. Very different perspectives and approaches. You can read about some of the details of how kenpom preseason rankings are calculated here https://kenpom.substack.com/p/preseason-ratings-are-live

As far as the guts of my system, I include the last five seasons of team data and two seasons of conference data (using the current season’s membership), plus returning production, transfers, and notable freshmen, along with coaching changes. Independent forecasts are made for offense and defense.
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???? You said "historical performance from the last 5 years". What else would anyone think you were talking about when we are discussing conference rankings. Which is strange no matter what data Kenpom uses considering no one on the team 5 years ago is playing this year. Kind of shows how stupid and meaningless so many of these analytics are. That being said, still strange that anyone would have us 11th if using any type of historical performance from the past 5 years.
 
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Maybe it's not individual stats but things like team efficiencies as a whole year over year over year? UR should be the easiest to peg bc we always have the same coach, always had the same style of offense and until last year I'd imagine the defense was fairly consistent since we went away from the matchup.

Saying analytics is stupid is not smart IMO. I understand your point that personnel change happens, but if you can look at numbers and they have the ability predict fairly accurately future results based on past performances (year over year over year) you'd be dumb to ignore them.
 
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brooklyn brownstone said:
Maybe it's not individual stats but things like team efficiencies as a whole year over year over year? UR should be the easiest to peg bc we always have the same coach, always had the same style of offense and until last year I'd imagine the defense was fairly consistent since we went away from the matchup.

Saying analytics is stupid is not smart IMO. I understand your point that personnel change happens, but if you can look at numbers and they have the ability predict fairly accurately future results based on past performances (year over year over year) you'd be dumb to ignore them.
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I didn't say all analytics were stupid. I said so many of these analytics are stupid. They just are. And that would include using our 2020 season as even 1% of what we might do this year. And I say that knowing how great our 2020 season was. But, if kenpom is using efficiencies, we are also way better than 11th too. Just saying...he is just picking names out of a hat right now for the most part.

He might be right. He might be wrong. But, what we do know is all of these analytics dudes were way off last year when they had us 11th.
 
2020: Kenpom had us 2nd best A10 team at 46.
2021: 4th best at 65.
2022: 6th best at 85.
2023: 8th best at 150.
2024: 4th best at 89.

So, it's hard for me to agree that he is using some kind of analytical data to put us 11th. I already showed where we finished in the standings. Now, looking at this.....like I said, he is pretty much just drawing names out of a hat right now.

Or, just say looking at our team THIS YEAR, we are 11th based on all the other A10 teams THIS YEAR. That's fine and, even though I think we will do much better than that, hard to argue with that opinion too much if he feels there are 10 teams better. Because it's an opinion. But, save the analytical crap....as if any data at all the past 5 years would justify being 11th.
 
fan2011 said:
Preseason was 126, final was 89. Not a huge swing. A10 was very, very weak last year. Kenpoms numbers are more about the conference improving than Richmond being worse.

Additionally, it is very hard for computer models to take into account every piece of info for every team. All they have is past on court performance for the players on the team, and historical team performance. When there are so many unknowns on the roster they tend to just use historical performance over the past 5 or so years. That is what is giving us these rankings.
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Do these numbers I compiled seem correct for the A10?
2019-2020
KenPom 1-50 2 teams
51-100 5 teams
101-179 3 teams average 154
180-364 4 teams average 231.8

2020-2021
KenPom 1-50 2 teams
51-100 4 teams
101-179 4 teams average 124.3
180-364 4 teams average 234.8

2021-2022
KenPom 1-50 2 teams
51-100 4 teams
101-179 4 teams average 145.3
180-364 4 teams average 230.0

2022-2023
KenPom 1-50 0 teams
51-100 3 teams
101-179 5 teams average 140
180-364 7 teams average 222

2023-2024
KenPom 1-50 1 teams
51-10 7 teams average 85.2
101-179 2 teams average 113.5
180-364 4 teams average 177.4

9 in top 102 last season?

Preseason
2024-2025
KenPom 1-50 2 teams
51-100 3 teams
101-179 10 teams average 135.1
180-364 0 teams
 
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so projections say the bottom of the A10 is stronger than ever.
no gimmies. should be a very competitive fun season. probably plenty of upsets.
 
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yes, but still need more top teams. 2 in top 50 is in line but only 3 in 50-100 is a couple short of historical it seems. A10 unable to keep the quality at the top while improving the middle/bottom simultaneously is an issue for quality wins and "bad" losses since we know that any 100+ loss by a non P4 team is always flagged, regardless of circumstances. Lose @109 Wake Forest and it's overlooked bc of quality wins opportunities cashed in the ACC. A10 doesn't have that luxury.
 
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