Hello, good thoughts, though I don't agree with the cheap shot. The "vast majority" of this board isn't extremely negative, nor do they think everything is terrible. I think most of the board - at least the ones who actually went to UR and don't just claim they did - hold UR in high regard.In answering this question it is important to remember that the players have very different opinions relative to the university, basketball program and coaching staff than a vast majority of this board, which is extremely negative. If you take the view of people who post on this board, everything is terrible and always will be terrible, therefore, nobody is coming back. If you take the view of the players, who historical have shown strong loyalty to the program and coach, you arrive at a completely different answer. Here are my thoughts:
- Burton, very good chance he will return.
- Sherod, 50% probability. I do not think he plans to go pro. Sounds like he wants to teach and if that is the case and his knee heals, he might give it another shot.
- Gilyard, 50% probability. There is a massive difference in compensation between the top league in Europe and all the others. Gilly has played at an All American level in every aspect, but shooting this year. If he were to return without Blake, he might revert back to the shooting abilities he demonstrated his sophomore year, where he lead the A10 in score during conference play. Coming back would also allow him to set the All-time NCAA record for steals. Both of these could lead to a much better pro career.
- Cayo, 50% probability. If he can improve over this year, it might help him get a much better contract in Europe.
- Golden 25% probability. He probably could get a top contract with a top team in Europe. He might come back if Gilly and others return to get to enjoy a winning season in front of sellout crowds. Also depends on what is happening over in Europe this summer.
- Blake 15% probability. All depends on what type of pro contract he could get. Not sure him playing another year would help enhance his chances of a better contract.
As others have mentioned, there are many complicating factors other than pro contracts. Not a lot of young men and women want to stay in school for six years. There is incoming talent that might choose another destination if they are "blocked" for an extra year here. Same goes for underclassmen.
Your percentages look pretty good to me; perhaps a bit optimistic. I think Nick's probability is a lot lower; he already said his career was over, although he may have walked that back since. I agree that Gilyard and Cayo are the most likely of #bestclassever to stay, if only because they are true seniors and not already in their fifth year.
The problem with all of these guys winding up in the same class - and this is not a complaint but just an unfortunate fluke that it happened this year - is that for it to work next season they almost all have to agree to "get the band back together." What if this season ends in disappointment - no matter what that means - and Nick, Blake, and Jacob's best friend Grant move on. Jacob wants to use his extra year of eligibility. Say a power school with a better-than-even chance of making the tournament comes calling, that will offer Jacob enough playing time to break the Division I steals record. Most of these young men want to play in the tournament at least once in their career.