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How good are our starting 5

fan2011 said:
Yes.

Buck shot 57% from 2, 100% from 3, had 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals. Buck was great on both ends of the floor against UMass, not sure why you think his performance would indicate he cannot be an all-A10 level player.
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You of all people should understand statistics and trends. 7 rebounds, 6 asst and 2 steals is probably not going to put you on the all A10 team.
And I'm not saying that he's not going to get better - he is. But the main numbers that are key for all A10 (points, rebs, assts) will not improve significantly over this year's numbers because CM won't run the offense around him (nor should he).
I'd like you to answer my question about his season averages. Where do you see his season averages going the next two years? Do you think I'm far off with 12-14 points, 6-7 rebounds 5 assists? Or do you think those numbers are worthy of a slot on the all A10 team? One does not typically win these kind of awards with high "percentages" they will generally be based on season long points, assts and rebound numbers.
 
fan2011 said:
It is interesting that you point out Buck only scoring 12-14 points as an indicator that he is not going to be all A10 level. Over the past decade, the only sophomore from Richmond who averaged more points than Buck and went on to make an all A10 team was KA. I think you are remembering players as seniors and comparing them to Buck as a sophomore. That would be fine if someone were trying to argue that Buck is an all A10 level player RIGHT NOW, but it is not a great measuring stick for seeing if Buck has the potential to be an all A10 player at some point in the future. For some better perspective, here are the sophomore stats for Buck and everyone else over the past decade who made an all A10 team from Richmond:
Code: 
Player    Min    Pts    Rbs    Ast    Stl    Blk
KA    36.8    16.6    2.9    2.8    1.3    0.1
Buck    31.9    12.3    7.1    3.4    1.0    0.4
TJ    23.3    11.8    3.7    1.6    0.7    0.2
K0    23.5    11.5    1.4    1.2    0.7    0
Ced    32.2    11.2    2.5    3.7    1.0    0.2
SDJ    28.5    10.3    1.1    2.6    1.0    0.1
TA    24.2    10.2    5.7    0.9    0.7    0.5
Harper    23.1    9.2    4.6    0.6    0.6    0.8
Brothers    22.3    7.6    1.8    1.1    0.4    0.1

Buck is only behind TA in rebounds per minute, only behind Ced in assists per minute, and compares well to the group in steals, blocks and points per minute too. Buck's statistical sophomore performance has been on par or exceeded the sophomore performances of other Richmond players who have eventually made all-A10 teams.

I am not saying that Buck WILL make an all-A10 team, but there is certainly nothing about his performance this year that makes me doubt that it is possible.
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Or, to put it another way (and I understand the small sample size, have Bucks numbers (points, rebounds, assists) been measurably different in our wins versus our losses this year?
 
LongTimeSpiderFan said:
You of all people should understand statistics and trends. 7 rebounds, 6 asst and 2 steals is probably not going to put you on the all A10 team.
And I'm not saying that he's not going to get better - he is. But the main numbers that are key for all A10 (points, rebs, assts) will not improve significantly over this year's numbers because CM won't run the offense around him (nor should he).
I'd like you to answer my question about his season averages. Where do you see his season averages going the next two years? Do you think I'm far off with 12-14 points, 6-7 rebounds 5 assists? Or do you think those numbers are worthy of a slot on the all A10 team? One does not typically win these kind of awards with high "percentages" they will generally be based on season long points, assts and rebound numbers.
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Averaging 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals will absolutely put you on an all A10 team, you would be top 5 or top 10 in the A10 in all of those categories. 6 assists alone might get you on an all A10 team, you would probably be top 10 in the country in assists. Those stats coupled with ~13 points would absolutely put a player on an all A10 team if their team was doing well. Scoochie Smith averaged "only" 13.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.6 steals and made the all A10 first team last year. Players on teams that are not doing well don't get many votes.

The all A10 teams comprise the top 15 players in the conference. Buck is already top 15 in the conference in rebounds and assists as a sophomore, and would need to average ~1 more basket per game to be top 15 in all 3 of those categories you listed. I really don't think it is unreasonable to believe Buck will be in the top 15 of all 3 of those categories as a junior and senior.

However, all A10 teams are not just about individual stats, they are also about your team's overall performance. If we don't have a top 4 team our players won't get many all A10 votes, so that factor may hold Buck back. Hopefully we will improve and it won't be a problem.

As for Buck's performance in wins vs. losses, not sure what point you would be making with those numbers.
 
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fan2011 said:
Averaging 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals will absolutely put you on an all A10 team, you would be top 5 or top 10 in the A10 in all of those categories. 6 assists alone might get you on an all A10 team, you would probably be top 10 in the country in assists. Those stats coupled with ~13 points would absolutely put a player on an all A10 team if their team was doing well. Scoochie Smith averaged "only" 13.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.6 steals and made the all A10 first team last year. Players on teams that are not doing well don't get many votes.

The all A10 teams comprise the top 15 players in the conference. Buck is already top 15 in the conference in rebounds and assists as a sophomore, and would need to average ~1 more basket per game to be top 15 in all 3 of those categories you listed. I really don't think it is unreasonable to believe Buck will be in the top 15 of all 3 of those categories as a junior and senior.

However, all A10 teams are not just about individual stats, they are also about your team's overall performance. If we don't have a top 4 team our players won't get many all A10 votes, so that factor may hold Buck back. Hopefully we will improve and it won't be a problem.

As for Buck's performance in wins vs. losses, not sure what point you would be making with those numbers.
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You're right that if his assists numbers were that high he would.
My point is that if this team improves, which it kinda-has-to, Bucks point total isn't going to noticeably improve. GGs will, NS's will, our bench point total will improve. At whose expense will those point per game increases come assuming we agree about the same number of points per game?
Bucks stats will be at best 3rd on his own team.
 
LongTimeSpiderFan said:
My point is that if this team improves, which it kinda-has-to, Bucks point total isn't going to noticeably improve. GGs will, NS's will, our bench point total will improve.
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How do you figure?

Why, if everyone else on the teams production improves, would Buck not also?
 
Agree with you though 2011, if Buck had his current numbers and we we're 19-10 instead of 10-19 he would be getting much more all A10 talk.
 
LongTimeSpiderFan said:
You're right that if his assists numbers were that high he would.
My point is that if this team improves, which it kinda-has-to, Bucks point total isn't going to noticeably improve. GGs will, NS's will, our bench point total will improve. At whose expense will those point per game increases come assuming we agree about the same number of points per game?
Bucks stats will be at best 3rd on his own team.
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LongTimeSpiderFan said:
I didn't say everyone... And define "production"... Preferably in terms of points, rebs and assts.
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Okay you didn't say everyone.

I just don't understand the thought pattern used when you say - if this team improves, Bucks point total isn't going to noticeably improve. Based upon what?
 
gospidersgo said:
Okay you didn't say everyone.

I just don't understand the thought pattern used when you say - if this team improves, Bucks point total isn't going to noticeably improve. Based upon what?
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Based upon a finite number of points scored per game and a bunch of assumptions - which I am making since we're talking about the future. Some of those assumptions are that our team points/game stay the same (probably the biggest assumption, but you have to start somewhere). Then assuming GGs ppg and NS ppg improve because the offense will be based around them. The bench scoring will also increase. There's only so many points per game scored. I see Bucks ppg about the same for the rest of his tenure at UR.
Fan, was Scoochie Smith his team's leading scorer? If not, who was and how did they compare to Scoochies?
 
Buck has a lot to think about. He might be behind NS on the depth chart now. If Cayo comes on or Sal is the real deal, Buck could be regulated to the bench. Fore will probably remain a starter next year due to his seniority. If Buck stayed in the starting lineup, probably have to do SS type duty. Maybe it is time for him to pull a SS, but after the season is over. Charles Stevens 2.0?
 
Again, what happens if Cayo or Sal really comes on? Heck, what happens if GG's brother somehow comes to UR and is the real deal? Mooney can only start 5. Who goes to the bench? I agree with Fezz. For the record, my choice today, right now would be Cayo as a starter and Fore coming off the bench. I'm not Mooney, however. His tendency is to stick with his upper classmen once they have proven something to him. It would be a nice problem to have, though.

ur2K said:
Crazy talk. Buck is probably our best two way player on a team with a lot of one way players
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Octapod said:
Again, what happens if Cayo or Sal really comes on? Heck, what happens if GG's brother somehow comes to UR and is the real deal? Mooney can only start 5. Who goes to the bench? I agree with Fezz. For the record, my choice today, right now would be Cayo as a starter and Fore coming off the bench. I'm not Mooney, however. His tendency is to stick with his upper classmen once they have proven something to him. It would be a nice problem to have, though.
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Agree if that happens, this should be how you get Cayo more minutes (I’d be surprised if Sal logs major minutes early next year). Buck is going to play a whole lot no matter what happens with the rest of the lineup. He’s played 2-5 since he’s been here
 
We should be so lucky to have a scenario where any of our current bench players pushed Buck out of the starting lineup. That would mean we were far better as a team than we are right now.
 
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Our starting 5 looked pretty strong tonight. With the starters playing like this, I like Nathan Cayo and JJ as our 6th and 7th guys.

I see us being stronger next season if Cayo earns more minutes and if Sal comes in an pushes for front-line minutes too. I do not see Buck's minutes or points going down, so long as he continues to be our #1 or #2 defender, and so long as his shot-selection is good. Am in agreement with Coach Fezz that the guy who may lose minutes could be Khwan, but maybe the competition for minutes will bring out the "fighter" in him. Khwan certainly had a very good game tonight, and his shooting and shot-selection, which I have seen as his biggest weaknesses, were back on-track too. If Khwan plays like this every game, which is probably not likely, I am OK with NC and JJ off-the-bench.
 
CarolinaSpider said:
I love JJ's hustle but he has not been the same the last month and has had little to no offensive output, turnovers and some dumb fouls alla flying dutchman
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Completely agree CS. Love his "hustle" but for a team wanting to make the NCAA tourney it isn't enough. Cayo and hopefully Sal 6 and 7th subs and JJ 8th at best. Yes, real team player but can't handle the ball well enough to be a guard and undersized to defend as a SF.

Plus with JG and KF probably getting 30+ minutes next year, JJ isn't really needed except for 10 at minutes at most. Like I posted before this season started, less time JJ gets, better record will occur. Unfortunately, CM had no one else to go to. That being said, JJ has given 110% at all times.
 
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As mentioned on a previous post, over the last 12 games where Buck has started we are 8 and 4 and close to a top 100 team. A lot of players on the team have improved significantly since the beginning of the season.

Grant 3rd team A10 as a freshman is impressive.
Nick averaging over 20 points a game the last 12 games is also impressive.
Buckingham is a stud on both ends of the court
Gilyard's ball control, assists and steels the second half of the season have been great
Fore has played very well both end of the court.

I think this team is a lot better than most people give them credit for. If we could play our OOC schedule again after the A10 Tournament I believe we would win a majority of the games. What do you think?
 
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UR80sfan said:
Sorry, but I disagree. The quality of these 5 will be one of the best returning group of starters we have had. If you are not excited about these guys returning, you may never be. I also think our bench is going to be a lot better next year.
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If this group stays together over the summer, then yes, I would expect a big jump from them next season. I do not expect much better from the bench, though. Who do you think is going to be a big-time bench player for us? Cayo will improve a bit and maybe play more, Johnson won't. Beyond that, we know nothing about any of the 6 newcomers, including 2 who haven't even been identified or signed yet.

That said, our OOC schedule so far is at Georgetown, Wake at home, likely ODU at home, Boston College at hoe, at Vermont (I think that's a home-and-home)... Those are not going to be easy games. We'll probably schedule 7 or 8 scrubs to go along with them to pad the record, but I don't see us doing better than 3-2 in those 5.
 
I guarantee one of either Buckingham, Sherod or Golden will transfer. Then we will really be in trouble.
 
VT_Spider said:
I guarantee one of either Buckingham, Sherod or Golden will transfer. Then we will really be in trouble.
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Guarantee based on what? Pure speculation?

UR80sfan said:
Sorry, but I disagree. The quality of these 5 will be one of the best returning group of starters we have had. If you are not excited about these guys returning, you may never be. I also think our bench is going to be a lot better next year.
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I don't think this is too bold of a claim. Right now I expect about 2-4 bench points a game and I start worrying when they come in the game. This really isn't hard to top. If Cayo gets to the point where he can play 6-8 minutes a game then the bench will have already gotten better. Who knows, maybe one of the redshirt freshmen can play. Joe Kirby can't be replaced in his energy off the bench and contributions in practice but maybe just one of these freshmen can try. Then there is Sal. If he can come in and even be what Cayo has been this year (which has been very small contributions off the bench) then that makes us so much better off the bench. And again, the reason I say so much better is because I don't think there are any of us who get inspired confidence off the bench. Also, hey, I'm going to go on record saying that I think Julius Johnson will turn in his best season, by a lot, next year.
 
plydogg said:
Guarantee based on what? Pure speculation?



I don't think this is too bold of a claim. Right now I expect about 2-4 bench points a game and I start worrying when they come in the game. This really isn't hard to top. If Cayo gets to the point where he can play 6-8 minutes a game then the bench will have already gotten better. Who knows, maybe one of the redshirt freshmen can play. Joe Kirby can't be replaced in his energy off the bench and contributions in practice but maybe just one of these freshmen can try. Then there is Sal. If he can come in and even be what Cayo has been this year (which has been very small contributions off the bench) then that makes us so much better off the bench. And again, the reason I say so much better is because I don't think there are any of us who get inspired confidence off the bench. Also, hey, I'm going to go on record saying that I think Julius Johnson will turn in his best season, by a lot, next year.
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Cayo is already averaging more than 10 minutes per game.

I think if GG, Cayo, Sal, and 1 other player can handle the majority of forward minutes and we have Buck finally playing at the 3 most of the time we will be a much better team. If Buck and Sherod are still playing 80% of our minutes at the 4 that would not be good.

Ideally we would have Khwan, Gilyard, Sherod and Buck splitting time at the 1-3 with spot minutes from JJ, and 4 players in the 4/5 rotation (3 main guys with spot minutes from a 4th).
 
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plydogg said:
Guarantee based on what? Pure speculation?



I don't think this is too bold of a claim. Right now I expect about 2-4 bench points a game and I start worrying when they come in the game. This really isn't hard to top. If Cayo gets to the point where he can play 6-8 minutes a game then the bench will have already gotten better. Who knows, maybe one of the redshirt freshmen can play. Joe Kirby can't be replaced in his energy off the bench and contributions in practice but maybe just one of these freshmen can try. Then there is Sal. If he can come in and even be what Cayo has been this year (which has been very small contributions off the bench) then that makes us so much better off the bench. And again, the reason I say so much better is because I don't think there are any of us who get inspired confidence off the bench. Also, hey, I'm going to go on record saying that I think Julius Johnson will turn in his best season, by a lot, next year.
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My statement is based on the fact that kids get tired of losing. If I were Buck, Nick or Golden who are all good enough to play power 5 basketball, I would transfer. At the end of the day you want to win and compete for conference titles, NCAA bids or even national titles. None of those things will happen while they are at UR.
 
VT_Spider said:
My statement is based on the fact that kids get tired of losing. If I were Buck, Nick or Golden who are all good enough to play power 5 basketball, I would transfer. At the end of the day you want to win and compete for conference titles, NCAA bids or even national titles. None of those things will happen while they are at UR.
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So Buckingham, Golden, and Sherod are going to be tired of being 33-32 while they have been at Richmond? And that is bad enough for them to sacrifice a year of eligibility as well? A single source? Hell even a single fake atwitter account with a fake source? Again this is why I asked if this is pure speculation and it is. I also speculate that Grayson Allen will be granted an extra year and he will play at Richmond next year and bring Bamba who won't declare for the draft.
 
plydogg said:
So Buckingham, Golden, and Sherod are going to be tired of being 33-32 while they have been at Richmond? And that is bad enough for them to sacrifice a year of eligibility as well? A single source? Hell even a single fake atwitter account with a fake source? Again this is why I asked if this is pure speculation and it is. I also speculate that Grayson Allen will be granted an extra year and he will play at Richmond next year and bring Bamba who won't declare for the draft.
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All I'm saying is that none of those guys will make an NCAA tournament if they stay at UR. They want to play on that stage and going elsewhere will give them a better chance. Just put yourself in their shoes.
 
plydogg, nothing VT_Spider says, no matter how matter-of-factly he states it, is based on anything solid. In this particular situation VT is projecting his thoughts on the program onto Buck, Sherod and Golden. Since VT has no hope for our program he is assuming our players don't either and will want to transfer.
 
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Depending on the schedule, I say we go 14-4 in the A-10 next year. We have ODU and Wake at home. I think we can get to 22 wins.
 
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