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FCS Football: Too Early 2022 & 2023 Preseason Top 25

32, does that 0% chance of an at-large bid for UR take into account those two Top 20 teams that both could very well go to the Celebration Bowl and not even be eligible for the FCS Playoffs? Or that if WM beats Albany and UD beats Villanova and we happen to win out that the only CAA one loss team that would have won 6 games in a row will be left out for an at-large bid? We certainly have no margin for error but are still are very much in the picture for a bid whether it's auto or at-large.
 
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32, does that 0% chance of an at-large bid for UR take into account those two Top 20 teams that both could very well go to the Celebration Bowl and not even be eligible for the FCS Playoffs? Or that if WM beats Albany and UD beats Villanova and we happen to win out that the only CAA one loss team that would have won 6 games in a row will be left out for an at-large bid? We certainly have no margin for error but are still are very much in the picture for a bid whether it's auto or at-large.

 
Herder has us as the second team out at the moment. Obviously need to keep winning, but an at-large doesn't seem out of the question.

Keep an eye on Richmond. After a tough 1-2 start in the non-conference, the Spiders are now 5-3 overall (5-2 vs. the FCS), 4-1 in the CAA, and have one ranked win over Rhody. Games ahead include vs. Campbell, vs. Elon, and at slumping W&M. That could be eight wins and in serious consideration for a bid. But a lack of ranked wins and two losses to unranked Hampton and Morgan State could be questioned by the committee.

 
Becton projects us as one of a handful of 7–4 teams (loss to W&M) that would miss out. Doesn't explicitly say if winning out would be enough to get us in in his view, but suggests it by saying a loss to W&M keeps us out.

Even with a projection of W&M beating us, he has the Tribe as the first team out with his prediction of a loss to Albany to put them at 7–4.

 
The Tribe is looking very pedestrian right now. We have a chance to win out but there will NEVER be an at-large bid with loses to organ State and Hampton. EVER
 
Losers today:Stats

2. Montana State (6-2, 4-1 Big Sky): 24-21 loss at No. 9 Idaho

3. Furman (7-1, 5-0 SoCon): 16-8 win over ETSU

4. South Dakota (6-2, 4-1 MVFC): 37-3 loss to No. 1 South Dakota State

10. Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2 SoCon): 45-38 loss to Mercer

14. UT Martin (6-2, 3-1 Big South-OVC): 38-34 loss at Gardner-Webb

17. Chattanooga (7-2, 6-1 Southern): 24-23 win at VMI

18. Central Arkansas (5-3, 2-1 UAC): 25-23 loss to Tarleton

22. William & Mary (5-3, 3-2 CAA): 31-28 win over Monmouth

25. UC Davis (4-4, 2-3 Big Sky): 38-21 loss at Northern Arizona

Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots):

Holy Cross (5-3, 3-1 Patriot): 49-47 win at Fordham

New Hampshire (4-4, 2-3 CAA): 34-28 OT loss at Rhode Island

Fordham (5-3, 1-2 Patriot): 49-47 loss to Holy Cross

Eastern Washington (3-5, 2-3 Big Sky): 47-35 loss at Portland State

Penn (5-2, 2-2 Ivy): 30-26 loss to Brown

Lamar (4-4, 3-1 Southland): 17-7 loss to No. 8 UIW
 
STATS Poll, 10/30/2023


1. South Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVFC), 1,400 points (56 of 56 first-place votes)
2. Furman (7-1, 5-0 SoCon), 1,278
3. Idaho (6-2, 4-1 Big Sky), 1,218
4. Montana (7-1, 4-1 Big Sky), 1,190
5. Delaware (7-1, 5-0 CAA), 1,171
6. Montana State (6-2, 4-1 Big Sky), 1,150
7. Sacramento State (6-2, 3-2 Big Sky), 1,074
8. UIW (7-1, 4-0 Southland), 980
9. South Dakota (6-2, 4-1 MVFC), 964
10. Southern Illinois (6-2, 3-2 MVFC), 862
11. North Dakota State (6-2, 3-2 MVFC), 815
12. North Carolina Central (7-1, 2-0 MEAC), 751
13. North Dakota (5-3, 3-2 MVFC), 648
14. Chattanooga (7-2, 6-1 Southern), 578
15. Florida A&M (7-1, 6-0 SWAC), 576
16. Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2 SoCon), 516
17. Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA), 471
18. Northern Iowa (5-3, 4-1 MVFC), 389
19. Austin Peay (6-2, 3-0 UAC), 387
20. Lafayette (7-1, 3-0 Patriot), 354
21. UT Martin (6-2, 3-1 Big South-OVC), 314
22. Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2 MVFC), 269
23. UAlbany (6-3, 4-1 CAA), 249
24. William & Mary (5-3, 3-2 CAA), 184
25. Mercer (6-3, 4-2 SoCon), 103


Dropped Out: Central Arkansas (18),UC Davis (25)

Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Central Arkansas (5-3, 2-1 UAC) 94; Harvard (6-1, 3-1 Ivy) 80; Holy Cross (5-3, 3-1 Patriot) 48; Tennessee State (6-2, 2-1 Big South-OVC) 48; Tarleton (6-3, 2-2 UAC) 14; Richmond (6-3, 5-1 CAA) 13; Gardner-Webb (4-4, 2-1 Big South-OVC) 5; UC Davis (4-4, 2-3 Big Sky) 3
 
STATS Poll, 10/30/2023


1. South Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVFC), 1,400 points (56 of 56 first-place votes)
2. Furman (7-1, 5-0 SoCon), 1,278
3. Idaho (6-2, 4-1 Big Sky), 1,218
4. Montana (7-1, 4-1 Big Sky), 1,190
5. Delaware (7-1, 5-0 CAA), 1,171
6. Montana State (6-2, 4-1 Big Sky), 1,150
7. Sacramento State (6-2, 3-2 Big Sky), 1,074
8. UIW (7-1, 4-0 Southland), 980
9. South Dakota (6-2, 4-1 MVFC), 964
10. Southern Illinois (6-2, 3-2 MVFC), 862
11. North Dakota State (6-2, 3-2 MVFC), 815
12. North Carolina Central (7-1, 2-0 MEAC), 751
13. North Dakota (5-3, 3-2 MVFC), 648
14. Chattanooga (7-2, 6-1 Southern), 578
15. Florida A&M (7-1, 6-0 SWAC), 576
16. Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2 SoCon), 516
17. Villanova (6-2, 4-1 CAA), 471
18. Northern Iowa (5-3, 4-1 MVFC), 389
19. Austin Peay (6-2, 3-0 UAC), 387
20. Lafayette (7-1, 3-0 Patriot), 354
21. UT Martin (6-2, 3-1 Big South-OVC), 314
22. Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2 MVFC), 269
23. UAlbany (6-3, 4-1 CAA), 249
24. William & Mary (5-3, 3-2 CAA), 184
25. Mercer (6-3, 4-2 SoCon), 103


Dropped Out: Central Arkansas (18),UC Davis (25)

Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Central Arkansas (5-3, 2-1 UAC) 94; Harvard (6-1, 3-1 Ivy) 80; Holy Cross (5-3, 3-1 Patriot) 48; Tennessee State (6-2, 2-1 Big South-OVC) 48; Tarleton (6-3, 2-2 UAC) 14; Richmond (6-3, 5-1 CAA) 13; Gardner-Webb (4-4, 2-1 Big South-OVC) 5; UC Davis (4-4, 2-3 Big Sky) 3
Still a long shot but chances improving with every win...take care of the Fighting Christians and let's settle this thing on the Reservation...

Go Spiders!
 
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Things are getting better each week. Getting some votes in various polls. Week of rest for team while others will battle to stay alive. Let’s go Tribe and Phoenix. Hopefully they will do their part with wins and we can then do our part the next two weeks. WM is the big one to knock Albany out of the one conference win category and to keep the Tribe moving back up in the polls.
 
Last year, #23 Delaware was the lowest-ranked one to get an at-large. #24 UC Davis and #25 UT Martin did not make it.

In 2021, UNI made it despite not being ranked (they were just out of the poll at #26). They were only 6–6 but of course played in the tough MVFC so four out of their five FCS losses were to ranked teams and they had wins over #3 SIU and #6 SDSU (rankings at game time). Plus they played very tight with an Iowa State team that was #7 in the preseason FBS poll.
 
sounds we need to be 22 or better to have a real shot at an at-large,
 
Snuck in at #25 in coaches:

 
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