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Fan2011-Need a Stat

Jan 26, 2015
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Can you open up the stat machine and find out if our offensive efficiency was much different today than it has been? The stats say that we were top 30 ( i believe) in the country in offensive efficiency. I know the board talk is that we play 2 non scorers too much. Just curious if there is a game by game efficiency # that you have access to.
 
Can you open up the stat machine and find out if our offensive efficiency was much different today than it has been? The stats say that we were top 30 ( i believe) in the country in offensive efficiency. I know the board talk is that we play 2 non scorers too much. Just curious if there is a game by game efficiency # that you have access to.

Opponent - Richmond Offensive Efficiency - Richmond Defensive Efficiency
JMU - 114.7 - 133.1
Stetson - 133.8 - 105.3
Wake - 126.3 - 113.8
Bethune - 115.8 - 83.3
WVU - 91.6 - 104.0
Cal - 131.0 - 125.4
Florida - 78.1 - 106.0
UNI - 123.4 - 100.8
Longwood - 105.8 - 81.1
ODU - 123.3 - 97.7
Presbyterian - 103.0 - 61.2
Texas Tech - 99.4 - 120.7
SJU - 106.4 - 112.2
URI - 98.4 - 116.6
Fordham - 135.1 - 119.1
 
Amazing what happens when you dont have 2 offensive non factors playing major minutes together. Not sure why it took so many on this board to realize that. More shocked that it took that long for the guy making a million plus annually to run the program
 
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Amazing what happens when you dont have 2 offensive non factors playing major minutes together. Not sure why it took so many on this board to realize that. More shocked that it took that long for the guy making a million plus annually to run the program
97 is on a roll!!
 
Don't want to spend a great deal of time on it, but I'm having a hard time picking up a pattern that indicates the likelihood of winning or losing. The only statistic that really matters is the final score. .
 
So it appears to be our most efficient game offensively this season. It also was our fourth worst defensive showing.

Not sure that's a pattern we can trust but it does suggest a fourth scorer has an impact. In our five most offensively efficient games, he scored, 29, 17, 18, 10, and 15.

In the six games he's played 27+ minutes, we are 4-2. Not ideal, but the two losses were to a ranked team in WVU and a Top25 vote getter in TTU. I would continue the experiment.
 
For what it's worth, there is basically no correlation between Wood's playing time and our offensive or defensive efficiency, r2 are both under 0.2 .
 
2011 you're the stats guy, is there a bright line indicator for wins and losses in these ratings? If so what are you seeing?
 
2011 you're the stats guy, is there a bright line indicator for wins and losses in these ratings? If so what are you seeing?

Unfortunately there isn't one stat that can be pointed to that correlates extremely well with wins or losses. At the end of the game, as you have said above, the only thing that matters is the score. For our team, offensive/defensive shooting efficiency (effective field goal percentage) correlated very highly with our overall offensive/defensive efficiency. Basically, whoever shoots more efficiently is very likely to win the game when we are playing. Offensive rebounds, turnovers and free throws have drastically lower correlations with our overall efficiencies.
 
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FYI, I wasn't postulating any statistical significance. But interesting to note that both things that have been postulated seem to have occurred when he scores a lot. Our offensive efficiency improves and our defensive efficiency worsens.

I'm pretty much going off eye test though when I say I want Marshall playing over DT.
 
So it appears to be our most efficient game offensively this season. It also was our fourth worst defensive showing.

Not sure that's a pattern we can trust but it does suggest a fourth scorer has an impact. In our five most offensively efficient games, he scored, 29, 17, 18, 10, and 15.

In the six games he's played 27+ minutes, we are 4-2. Not ideal, but the two losses were to a ranked team in WVU and a Top25 vote getter in TTU. I would continue the experiment.

This is my thought as well. It may be completely random that our best games of the year basically have been the games in which we scored the most points AND in which Wood played his best , but it sure seems like that is not the case. Our defense sucks whether we score a lot or don't score a lot, so I'm not losing any sleep over whether Deion saves 12 points a game on defense or Wood allows them. Wood is going to score 15 points a game if he plays 30 minutes, and the rest of our team seems to get in a much better flow when this happens (again, just look at the games cited). The threat of Wood scoring from outside opens up the court for us to run our offense and get our other guys better looks. Early in the game today we had no clue on offense and were not running anything. It wasn't until Wood starting catching fire that other opportunities opened up.
 
8L, There is no question that MW is a far significantly better offensive player than DT. That is not debatable, nor is it the purpose of this post.

I have seen every game this year, only one in person and the rest on TV/internet etc. I believe how MW plays vs. how much be plays is a bigger indicator to our success. 9 days ago vs. SJ, he was AWFUL. 0-5 from 3, and none of them were close.
WV he played 30 minutes (vs. DT's 22 minutes) and went 0-5 from 3.
I will give him a pass on the JMU game, since it was his first action in two years (but if you're so inclined go back and read the posts on him after that game!).
the TT and FLA were clusters for the entire team, although MW played well in his 22 minutes (vs. 24 for DT).

That leaves us w/ URI. I believe he was in foul trouble in the first half, never got in the flow and finally hit a couple of treys in the 2nd, which I believe set up yesterday's explosion.

My point is that, JMU, WVU, STJ and URI losses were as much about other things (terrible rebounding-JMU, poor shooting both FG and FT-WVU, poor 3 PT FG defense-STJ, poor FTs, 3 PT Def-URI and the fact that SDJ and KF had 0 points) than it was about the DT vs MW playing time.

One more thing, prior to the URI game, MW was 5-22 in 3 point shooting. Prior to that he went 0-10 (vs. Beth Cook and WVU). That is a little too streaky for my taste, but someone who can fill it up like that, I would prefer coming off the bench to give us an offensive jolt.
 
8L, There is no question that MW is a far significantly better offensive player than DT. That is not debatable, nor is it the purpose of this post.

I have seen every game this year, only one in person and the rest on TV/internet etc. I believe how MW plays vs. how much be plays is a bigger indicator to our success. 9 days ago vs. SJ, he was AWFUL. 0-5 from 3, and none of them were close.
WV he played 30 minutes (vs. DT's 22 minutes) and went 0-5 from 3.
I will give him a pass on the JMU game, since it was his first action in two years (but if you're so inclined go back and read the posts on him after that game!).
the TT and FLA were clusters for the entire team, although MW played well in his 22 minutes (vs. 24 for DT).

That leaves us w/ URI. I believe he was in foul trouble in the first half, never got in the flow and finally hit a couple of treys in the 2nd, which I believe set up yesterday's explosion.

My point is that, JMU, WVU, STJ and URI losses were as much about other things (terrible rebounding-JMU, poor shooting both FG and FT-WVU, poor 3 PT FG defense-STJ, poor FTs, 3 PT Def-URI and the fact that SDJ and KF had 0 points) than it was about the DT vs MW playing time.

One more thing, prior to the URI game, MW was 5-22 in 3 point shooting. Prior to that he went 0-10 (vs. Beth Cook and WVU). That is a little too streaky for my taste, but someone who can fill it up like that, I would prefer coming off the bench to give us an offensive jolt.
To show how streaky in second half, his first two 3 attempts never touched the rim, but the third one at the shot clock buzzer to seal the deal, was what counted the most.
I think all 3 point shooters are streaky ala KO who could miss ten straight then hit 5 in a row. Against VCU in the big OT game that we came back from 7 with 30 seconds left, KO
up to that point had not had a great game, but was Mr Clutch at the end cause he was fearless. If you have an open shot, take it and if you miss it, and open again take it again.
That is a shooter's mentality and that is how you win big games.
 
8L, There is no question that MW is a far significantly better offensive player than DT. That is not debatable, nor is it the purpose of this post.

I have seen every game this year, only one in person and the rest on TV/internet etc. I believe how MW plays vs. how much be plays is a bigger indicator to our success. 9 days ago vs. SJ, he was AWFUL. 0-5 from 3, and none of them were close.
WV he played 30 minutes (vs. DT's 22 minutes) and went 0-5 from 3.
I will give him a pass on the JMU game, since it was his first action in two years (but if you're so inclined go back and read the posts on him after that game!).
the TT and FLA were clusters for the entire team, although MW played well in his 22 minutes (vs. 24 for DT).

That leaves us w/ URI. I believe he was in foul trouble in the first half, never got in the flow and finally hit a couple of treys in the 2nd, which I believe set up yesterday's explosion.

My point is that, JMU, WVU, STJ and URI losses were as much about other things (terrible rebounding-JMU, poor shooting both FG and FT-WVU, poor 3 PT FG defense-STJ, poor FTs, 3 PT Def-URI and the fact that SDJ and KF had 0 points) than it was about the DT vs MW playing time.

One more thing, prior to the URI game, MW was 5-22 in 3 point shooting. Prior to that he went 0-10 (vs. Beth Cook and WVU). That is a little too streaky for my taste, but someone who can fill it up like that, I would prefer coming off the bench to give us an offensive jolt.

Yeah, no argument here. As to the bolded part, my assertion is that he tends to play better when he plays more regular minutes. He needs to be in the flow of the game to get a feel for his shot, it seems. He had a terrible game against St. Joe's, and if he made even one three, we win that game. That happens. But he also played very sporadic minutes that game and probably felt pressure to come in and hit a three or else he knew he'd be coming right back out.

There are any number of factors that we can point to that cost us a game or won us a game, so I agree that it's probably pointless to try to pinpoint one factor either way. But my general sense is that when Wood plays 25+ minutes, our entire flow seems to be more comfortable, relaxed and energized, and our offense just works best. Our defense is bad either way, but when we are scoring so well, I think it puts more pressure on the other team's offense, and they start taking some bad shots in an attempt to keep up with us. That happened to Fordham yesterday.
 
To show how streaky in second half, his first two 3 attempts never touched the rim, but the third one at the shot clock buzzer to seal the deal, was what counted the most.
I think all 3 point shooters are streaky ala KO who could miss ten straight then hit 5 in a row. Against VCU in the big OT game that we came back from 7 with 30 seconds left, KO
up to that point had not had a great game, but was Mr Clutch at the end cause he was fearless. If you have an open shot, take it and if you miss it, and open again take it again.
That is a shooter's mentality and that is how you win big games.
Are we sure it was his ankle and not his knee that caused him to leave at the end of the first half? That could explain not elevating smoothly on the first two shots, but the knee holding up on the last shot.
 
Are we sure it was his ankle and not his knee that caused him to leave at the end of the first half? That could explain not elevating smoothly on the first two shots, but the knee holding up on the last shot.
His leg got bent up underneath him for he was undercut and fell backwards. He grabbed his knee but they were addressing his ankle also.
So based on fall URMITE you might think it would be the knee and he was taken off with no pressure on that leg. But he went into the locker room walking.
So maybe he rolled his ankle a little when bent like he was. I don't know cause based on the replay, I was concerned he hurt his knee pretty bad. You see
QBs get sandwiched high low and fall backwards with their legs bent like that and it is usually the knee. Good question.
 
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