Just like last time, most of you will be asleep when this is posted. But when you wake up it will be SPIDER GAMEDAY! This is one that should be an easy win but right now I am not taking anything for granted and just want to see us play a solid 40 minutes without any lapses that cost us. I will be watching the defense this game to see how it progresses as we head into game 3
Cal State Northridge Matadors (0-4)
Who have they played?
Northridge have played 3 road games this year and one at home. They lost on the road to Oregon State, New Mexico, and Auburn. All of those losses were by double digits and the closest was a 20 point loss to New Mexico. Their one home game was a 12 point loss to Pepperdine. This has been a very tough schedule for them as those 4 teams are a combined 14-2. I don't believe this Northridge team is very good but the worst thing we can do as a team is look at that schedule and assume this will be a cakewalk. I'm sure they are hungry as hell to get that first win.
Key Players?
Northridge is led by junior guard Terrell Gomez. He is their only player average double digit points with 22.3. He is a matchup dream for us as he is 5'8" which should make it much easier for Gilyard and Francis to guard him. While he may be scoring a lot he is not that efficient as he is shooting 40.8% from the field this year and has only shot above 42% from the field once this year. He is a gunslinger from 3 and is attempting 9 per game while shooting 52.8%. We need to keep him shooting on the inside and make him drive instead of shooting the deep ball. He is 19-36 from deep but inside the arc he is 10 for 35! This needs to be a huge point of emphasis.
The only other player averaging over 30 minutes a game is sophomore guard Darius Brown II. Brown is 6'1" but has not been much of a scorer this year. He is a pass first guard who is averaging 5.5 assists per game to just 8.5 points (on 42.4% shooting). Look for him to drive and kick to Gomez.
The last player I want to spotlight is Lance Coleman II as I believe he is going to be a key matchup. Coleman is a 6'6" junior forward who has attempted the second most shots on the team. He is averaging 9.5 points per game but is shooting 31.1%. He is getting some points but is incredibly inefficient. He is also only averaging 2.8 rebounds per game. I think we need to make him beat us. Make them run the offense through him. So far this season he has shot 50% once and has shot under 30% all 3 other times including a 1-11 performance against Auburn (9.1%). He has attempted nearly seven 3's per game and is shooting just 26%. He is a name I will be looking at heavily during the game.
Key Stats and Matchups?
Northridge is averaging 72.3 points this season which is 201st in the nation. They are shooting 40.4% from the field which drops them down to 281st. Right now they have attempted the 28th most 3 pointers in Division 1 and are shooting it at 39.2% which is 58th in the country. This is a big red flag for me as we have seen this season that we leave guys open at the 3 point line a lot. If they catch fire they can score 45-60 points from 3 and that is something we do not want to see happen. We need to make sure to defend the 3 because it seems like this is the type of inferior team that will make us pay if we don't. I believe the key to stopping this team is by making them score inside the arc. You can see from the stats how much they drop when you account for all field goals and not just 3's. They also are shooting free throws at 62.3% which is 283rd in the country! Make them shoot inside and if we foul them then I like our chances.
Right now the Spiders have 5 players averaging 10+ points per game which means that on any given possession anybody on the court for us can score. Right now when we have any combo of guys out there (excluding Grace) I am never worried when anybody gets the ball or takes a shot. Sure some shots are better/worse than others but there isn't that moment where I get a bad feeling in my stomach when our reserves check into the game. We are shooting 48.6% from the field which is 70th in the country while scoring 96.5 points (4th best in the country). That number will decrease as the season goes on but I like for us to have a high scoring game in this one against a Northridge team that is yet to hold a team under 87 points.
Cal State Northridge averages 31.8 rebounds per game. This is 319th in the country. For reference we average 33 rebounds per game. Despite this they average 10.5 offensive rebounds per game which is 190th in the country. We need to limit their chances at offensive boards and maybe even crash the glass a little ourselves (even though I know that won't happen). They are a very weak rebounding team which is good to see as our biggest weakness is also one of theirs. Their leading rebounder only averages 5.5 per game and the next highest is 4.3. For reference we have 3 players averaging at least 5.5 rebounds per game and our next highest is still at 4.0 per game. They do not have that workhorse rebounder which I think really plays to our advantage. They have had double digit offensive rebounds in 3 of their 4 games this year, so we will need to watch out with that and try to limit those second chance points.
The Matadors average 15.3 assists per game while committing 15.3 turnovers per game. They are 121st in assists per game but are 233rd in turnovers per game. We are averaging 9.5 steals per game, so this could play right into our hands if we need to turn up the pressure. To contrast that we are 18th in assists per game with 19, although some of that is due to the two overtime periods. But we are averaging only 9.5 turnovers per game which is 15th in the country and becomes more impressive when acknowledging the two overtimes. Our assist to turnover ratio is 2.0 (it is 1.0 for Northridge) which is 4th best in the country! We have been very efficient so far and right now we all know that it is the defense that needs to step up and not the offense.
The sample size for Northridge is pretty decent at 4 games so I feel comfortable making these predictions and stating that these things will be key factors. Since we are still at only 2 games some things may be statistical outliers (I'm thinking our assists and turnovers) but we will see as the season goes on. I think I was pretty spot on with most of what I thought the big matchups would be against Vandy so I am hoping I am again correct with these because I think I have come up with at least a halfway decent gameplan of making them play to our strengths while forcing their weaknesses.
Cal State Northridge Matadors (0-4)
Who have they played?
Northridge have played 3 road games this year and one at home. They lost on the road to Oregon State, New Mexico, and Auburn. All of those losses were by double digits and the closest was a 20 point loss to New Mexico. Their one home game was a 12 point loss to Pepperdine. This has been a very tough schedule for them as those 4 teams are a combined 14-2. I don't believe this Northridge team is very good but the worst thing we can do as a team is look at that schedule and assume this will be a cakewalk. I'm sure they are hungry as hell to get that first win.
Key Players?
Northridge is led by junior guard Terrell Gomez. He is their only player average double digit points with 22.3. He is a matchup dream for us as he is 5'8" which should make it much easier for Gilyard and Francis to guard him. While he may be scoring a lot he is not that efficient as he is shooting 40.8% from the field this year and has only shot above 42% from the field once this year. He is a gunslinger from 3 and is attempting 9 per game while shooting 52.8%. We need to keep him shooting on the inside and make him drive instead of shooting the deep ball. He is 19-36 from deep but inside the arc he is 10 for 35! This needs to be a huge point of emphasis.
The only other player averaging over 30 minutes a game is sophomore guard Darius Brown II. Brown is 6'1" but has not been much of a scorer this year. He is a pass first guard who is averaging 5.5 assists per game to just 8.5 points (on 42.4% shooting). Look for him to drive and kick to Gomez.
The last player I want to spotlight is Lance Coleman II as I believe he is going to be a key matchup. Coleman is a 6'6" junior forward who has attempted the second most shots on the team. He is averaging 9.5 points per game but is shooting 31.1%. He is getting some points but is incredibly inefficient. He is also only averaging 2.8 rebounds per game. I think we need to make him beat us. Make them run the offense through him. So far this season he has shot 50% once and has shot under 30% all 3 other times including a 1-11 performance against Auburn (9.1%). He has attempted nearly seven 3's per game and is shooting just 26%. He is a name I will be looking at heavily during the game.
Key Stats and Matchups?
Northridge is averaging 72.3 points this season which is 201st in the nation. They are shooting 40.4% from the field which drops them down to 281st. Right now they have attempted the 28th most 3 pointers in Division 1 and are shooting it at 39.2% which is 58th in the country. This is a big red flag for me as we have seen this season that we leave guys open at the 3 point line a lot. If they catch fire they can score 45-60 points from 3 and that is something we do not want to see happen. We need to make sure to defend the 3 because it seems like this is the type of inferior team that will make us pay if we don't. I believe the key to stopping this team is by making them score inside the arc. You can see from the stats how much they drop when you account for all field goals and not just 3's. They also are shooting free throws at 62.3% which is 283rd in the country! Make them shoot inside and if we foul them then I like our chances.
Right now the Spiders have 5 players averaging 10+ points per game which means that on any given possession anybody on the court for us can score. Right now when we have any combo of guys out there (excluding Grace) I am never worried when anybody gets the ball or takes a shot. Sure some shots are better/worse than others but there isn't that moment where I get a bad feeling in my stomach when our reserves check into the game. We are shooting 48.6% from the field which is 70th in the country while scoring 96.5 points (4th best in the country). That number will decrease as the season goes on but I like for us to have a high scoring game in this one against a Northridge team that is yet to hold a team under 87 points.
Cal State Northridge averages 31.8 rebounds per game. This is 319th in the country. For reference we average 33 rebounds per game. Despite this they average 10.5 offensive rebounds per game which is 190th in the country. We need to limit their chances at offensive boards and maybe even crash the glass a little ourselves (even though I know that won't happen). They are a very weak rebounding team which is good to see as our biggest weakness is also one of theirs. Their leading rebounder only averages 5.5 per game and the next highest is 4.3. For reference we have 3 players averaging at least 5.5 rebounds per game and our next highest is still at 4.0 per game. They do not have that workhorse rebounder which I think really plays to our advantage. They have had double digit offensive rebounds in 3 of their 4 games this year, so we will need to watch out with that and try to limit those second chance points.
The Matadors average 15.3 assists per game while committing 15.3 turnovers per game. They are 121st in assists per game but are 233rd in turnovers per game. We are averaging 9.5 steals per game, so this could play right into our hands if we need to turn up the pressure. To contrast that we are 18th in assists per game with 19, although some of that is due to the two overtime periods. But we are averaging only 9.5 turnovers per game which is 15th in the country and becomes more impressive when acknowledging the two overtimes. Our assist to turnover ratio is 2.0 (it is 1.0 for Northridge) which is 4th best in the country! We have been very efficient so far and right now we all know that it is the defense that needs to step up and not the offense.
The sample size for Northridge is pretty decent at 4 games so I feel comfortable making these predictions and stating that these things will be key factors. Since we are still at only 2 games some things may be statistical outliers (I'm thinking our assists and turnovers) but we will see as the season goes on. I think I was pretty spot on with most of what I thought the big matchups would be against Vandy so I am hoping I am again correct with these because I think I have come up with at least a halfway decent gameplan of making them play to our strengths while forcing their weaknesses.
