2024 Bracketology

[SFspidur]

I know Lunardi has already put out a few editions since the end of last season, but he gave another update yesterday so figured might as well bring it up. He's got the A-10 as a one-bid league with Dayton getting the AQ at an 11-seed. No A-10 teams in his first eight out either.

Men's Bracketology: We will ask again for the 25th time ... is this the Big Ten's season?

Nine Big Ten members are listed in our latest bracket, and every one of the First Four Out group -- Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin and USC -- are Big Ten members.

www.espn.com

 

[VT4700]

Until the conference proves otherwise, he is not wrong.

 

[ManiBenton]

we won't be near the field. We don't have to worry about this

 

[gcarter52]

we won't be near the field. We don't have to worry about this

Do you have a crystal ball?

 

[ManiBenton]

Do you have a crystal ball?

no but I've seen how our coach is unable to make adjustments and with the addition non experience with this roster, along with majority of the A10 out recruiting/adding talent to their rosters we are toast. Mani's Crystal Ball said 12-20 (5-13 record in conference) with us "competing" in 27 of those games.

 

[wr70beh]

Do you have a crystal ball?

Ray Charles can see this coming.

 

[gcarter52]

Ray Charles can see this coming.

You are no Ray Charles!

 

[ManiBenton]

You are no Ray Charles!

this made me laugh to hard I don't know why

 

[gcarter52]

this made me laugh to hard I don't know why

I can see why

 

[SFspidur]

Lunardi has dropped AQ Dayton to a 12-seed, presumably due to the Smith injury. No other A-10 teams on the radar.

Men's Bracketology: We will ask again for the 25th time ... is this the Big Ten's season?

Nine Big Ten members are listed in our latest bracket, and every one of the First Four Out group -- Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin and USC -- are Big Ten members.

www.espn.com

 

[spiderman]

is there a site that statistically ranks the conferences? I know it's early but I like to see how we're doing.

 

[gcarter52]

Lunardi has dropped AQ Dayton to a 12-seed, presumably due to the Smith injury. No other A-10 teams on the radar.

Men's Bracketology: We will ask again for the 25th time ... is this the Big Ten's season?

Nine Big Ten members are listed in our latest bracket, and every one of the First Four Out group -- Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin and USC -- are Big Ten members.

www.espn.com

It’s still too early for us right now.

 

[SFspidur]

is there a site that statistically ranks the conferences? I know it's early but I like to see how we're doing.

KenPom currently has the A-10 in 10th.

1 Big 12 Conference +17.25
2 Southeastern Conference +15.90
3 Big Ten Conference +14.78
4 Big East Conference +13.98
5 Pac 12 Conference +13.36
6 Atlantic Coast Conference +10.63
7 Mountain West Conference +7.15
8 West Coast Conference +4.90
9 American Athletic Conference +4.18
10 Atlantic 10 Conference +3.72
11 Conference USA +0.88
12 Missouri Valley Conference +0.54
13 Western Athletic Conference -0.54
14 Ivy League -0.55
15 Sun Belt Conference -1.34

 

[spiderman]

KenPom currently has the A-10 in 10th.

1 Big 12 Conference +17.25
2 Southeastern Conference +15.90
3 Big Ten Conference +14.78
4 Big East Conference +13.98
5 Pac 12 Conference +13.36
6 Atlantic Coast Conference +10.63
7 Mountain West Conference +7.15
8 West Coast Conference +4.90
9 American Athletic Conference +4.18
10 Atlantic 10 Conference +3.72
11 Conference USA +0.88
12 Missouri Valley Conference +0.54
13 Western Athletic Conference -0.54
14 Ivy League -0.55
15 Sun Belt Conference -1.34

thanks. is kenpom just using this year's stats, or does it start with projections?

 

[SFspidur]

thanks. is kenpom just using this year's stats, or does it start with projections?

KenPom includes a lot of preseason projections still, as there aren't enough connections yet for strictly results-based rankings to be in any way reliable.

But if you want some of that, there's the RPI, which currently has La Salle, Western Carolina, UMass, and UC San Diego in the top 10. Spiders at #88.

RPI (Live) - 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2024 Men's College Basketball RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.

www.warrennolan.com

And by those wacky ratings that have yet to shake out, the A-10 is currently #1.

Conference RPI - 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2024 Men's College Basketball Conference RPI (Rating Percentage Index): A Ranking of Every Conference Based on the Average RPI of the Teams in Each Conference

www.warrennolan.com

 

[spiderman]

that's what I want to see! you can only beat who's on the schedule. the A10 is killing it!

 

[SFspidur]

A-10 RPI rankings lol

4. La Salle
4. UMass
13. GW
15. Duquesne
17. Mason
37. St. Joe's
83. Davidson
88. UR
180. Dayton
202. URI
217. SLU
228. Fordham
280. Loyola
280. VCU
320. Bona

 

[spiderman]

any ranking that has VCU #280 is ok with me!

 

[CH_Spider]

any ranking that has VCU #280 is ok with me!

You just hate to see it

 

[SpiderDogg]

I’d like to see us jump the WCC and Mountain West. after top 2 in WCC that conference is trash and Mountain west is always over rated. What can the a10 learn from that conference? They always have highly rated teams who suck in the tournament - what are they doing right in non con scheduling that a10 isn’t doing. Maybe it’s simple as winning more in early season but there’s no reason that league should have more talent and success than a10

 

[fatherspider]

thanks. is kenpom just using this year's stats, or does it start with projections?

I think they all (net, etc.) start with projections which is why they can be very skewed imo.

 

[SFspidur]

The early skewing is far worse with those that don’t have projections included at the start of the season, as there simply isn’t enough data to generate any sort of accuracy.

NET does not have have preseason component, which is why they don’t publish it until December when there’s enough data for it to be somewhat meaningful.

And of course RPI doesn’t either. Not used by the NCAA anymore and it has its flaws, but at least the formula is known so it can be calculated from day one by anyone. But then you end up with stuff like La Salle and UCSD in the top ten right now.

 

[GKiller]

I’d like to see us jump the WCC and Mountain West. after top 2 in WCC that conference is trash and Mountain west is always over rated. What can the a10 learn from that conference? They always have highly rated teams who suck in the tournament - what are they doing right in non con scheduling that a10 isn’t doing. Maybe it’s simple as winning more in early season but there’s no reason that league should have more talent and success than a10

Idk I’ve never viewed rest of wcc as trash. Always found them underrated due to east coast bias & how dominant Gonzaga been.

It would be great to jump both leagues but hard to do bc think both r now legitimately better. But perhaps A10 will over perform who knows.

 

[fatherspider]

The early skewing is far worse with those that don’t have projections included at the start of the season, as there simply isn’t enough data to generate any sort of accuracy.

NET does not have have preseason component, which is why they don’t publish it until December when there’s enough data for it to be somewhat meaningful.

And of course RPI doesn’t either. Not used by the NCAA anymore and it has its flaws, but at least the formula is known so it can be calculated from day one by anyone. But then you end up with stuff like La Salle and UCSD in the top ten right now.

Ok I believe you about the NET not using any preseason projections but dont see how they could. There has to be some sort of starting point.

 

[SFspidur]

Ok I believe you about the NET not using any preseason projections but dont see how they could. There has to be some sort of starting point.

Why does there have to be a starting point? They just wait until ~1500 games have been played and then plug everything into the computer about who beat who where and what their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers were in those games and it all falls out.

Similar thing with RPI...all it is is a weighted sum of your winning percentage, your opponents' winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Which is why it provides wacky results early in the season, such as Western Carolina being ranked third. Their winning percentage is 100% (they're 2–0), and the teams they beat (Notre Dame and Middle Tennessee) are otherwise undefeated so far. That's 75% of WCU's RPI right there that is currently maxed out at 1.0.

 

[fan2011]

Why does there have to be a starting point? They just wait until ~1500 games have been played and then plug everything into the computer about who beat who where and what their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers were in those games and it all falls out.

I find it is not worth it to try to explain how rating systems work, especially to people who don't really care and dismiss them out of hand.

 

[urmite]

At Torvik’s, I think if you change the start from Nov 1 to Nov 2, it removes preseason.
So here it

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com