ADVERTISEMENT

Women Hoops - first four out/Men - bid thief

SpiderTrap

Graduate Assistant
Nov 6, 2007
6,124
2,154
113
Saw on ESPN today - women's hoops teams listed as first four out in latest bracketology. That is the place you want to be entering February - be in the NCAA conversation and give yourself a chance.

Men's team - does not appear on the bubble, but they have UR listed as auto bid from A10. SO not sure if we move of that AQ bid, would we be on the bubble? Assume so at this point.
 
Saw on ESPN today - women's hoops teams listed as first four out in latest bracketology. That is the place you want to be entering February - be in the NCAA conversation and give yourself a chance.

Men's team - does not appear on the bubble, but they have UR listed as auto bid from A10. SO not sure if we move of that AQ bid, would we be on the bubble? Assume so at this point.
We are there because we are in first place.
 
Guess I'm a little surprised Creme still doesn't have our women as the auto since we're tied with St. Joe's and have the head-to-head over them. Guess he just goes by NET in case of a tie.

Roussell admitted in SLU postgame that they haven't been as sharp the past week or so. The loss to Duquesne was really just a horrible all-around game for the Spiders, and they were way too sloppy against SLU but obviously still an easy enough matchup that they could get the W.

The women have a mid-week bye this week, so hopefully taking a little time to get back on track. Fordham on Saturday is not good, so hopefully a feel-good game to ease back in before a tougher test at Rhode Island.


The men would not be on the bubble given it would take a loss. (It should actually require two losses given the head-to-head tiebreaker, but Lunardi probably uses NET tiebreaker as well, haven't checkcked to confirm.) And of course, the regular season standings don't actually mean anything when it comes to the real thing on Selection Sunday anyway.

It's definitely possible to get on the bubble, but it's going to take a lot more wins. One game at a time.
 
The men would not be on the bubble given it would take a loss. (It should actually require two losses given the head-to-head tiebreaker, but Lunardi probably uses NET tiebreaker as well, haven't checkcked to confirm.) And of course, the regular season standings don't actually mean anything when it comes to the real thing on Selection Sunday anyway.

It's definitely possible to get on the bubble, but it's going to take a lot more wins. One game at a time.

Depends on how you define bubble. We might actually be on bubble right now - but that's because the bubble is really large at end of January. It's really small on selection sunday. Obviously we have a lot of work to do to be on bubble selection sunday, we are in a precarious position. But that's where projections also come in & I'd really start looking hard if we can get the next two on road, since almost all have VCU as a loss. There might be 30 teams on bubble now, on selection sunday maybe 5. The 2-3 last teams that get in & 2-3 that r out. Even if we are on a larger macro bubble now or very near it, a loss at Fordham shoves us off. You have to lose the right games and that doesn't include Fordham.
 
shopping
 
Well - what is the history of the A10.

How many A10 mens teams have won the regular season title AND the A10 tourney in same year?
How many A10 mens teams have won the regular season and NOT made the NCAA?
 
Since UR joined the conference, only 5 of the 21 A-10 tournament winners were also regular-season champs or co-champs. (Plus partial credit to GW who won the West and the tourney title one year but St. Joe's in the East had a better conference record.)

Two regular season co-champs (no solo champs) have failed to get a bid:
- 2016: Bona tied Dayton and VCU at 14–4 but didn't get a bid
- 2007: UMass tied Xavier at 13–3 but didn't get a bid
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1
Women got a break last night with St. Joes losing. I thought they would have tiebreaker anyways since they beat St. Joes earlier in the year - but nonetheless, they are all alone now. Control own destiny. Win at Bonnies in last game and they are A10 regular season champs.

Men are similar but tougher path. Still have VCU, St. Joes, and at Mason. We win out - all good. But that is a tough win out. But they have beaten the odds so far, so why not keep it rolling.
 
There are harder paths. We just need to win two home games, and then figure out a way to win at Mason. I like those odds.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1
Yep, I think he was just talking about winning out for at-large possibilities.
Yes - I think if women win A10 outright, and assume they win a game in the A10 tourney (maybe 2) - I feel like they got to be in the tourney. Women NET is about 53 and 2-3 more wins get them to 27-28 wins - that would be tough to turn down.

Men at NET 70 right now. I think they need to win out and then make A10 finals - that probably puts them on bubble, but at that point - make the finals, if they are not playing Dayton - they better win it.
 
Tend to agree, but here would be an interesting outcome... We win out, kill vcu, Dayton loses one or two more in the regular season, then we play Dayton in the A10 before the finals and beat them again, but then lose to Loyola in the final.

Any chance we leapfrog Dayton as an at-large in that situation? We would have beaten them twice and finished ahead of them in the league (and won it).
 
I don't think we can leapfrog Dayton at this point. The NET is the main factor and with us at 70 and Dayton at 20 and we are 70 - we would probably need to beat them 3 more times to leap frog them in anything at this point.

Saw an interesting article where Big 12 seemed to manipulate NET Rankings. They mainly played weak OOC games and beat teams by 40 points because apparently the NET factors in things such as Offensive and Defensive efficiency - which are factors in the NET. So then most Big 12 teams entered the league play with good records and good NET rankings and therefore - now that they are just playing themselves - their rankings just increase or stay the same. Results - 5 teams in top 20 of NET. Next 5 teams in top 50 - so that is 10 teams in top 50 of NET. Cincy is 45 and is 16-12. They are lowest of the 10.

So you could play weak competition, but you better win and run up the scores a bit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1
Unless we win the A10 tourney we’ll be heading to the NIT where hopefully we’ll be a high enough seed to get a couple of home games.

Bracketology – 2024 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions​

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament used automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). However, this is no longer the case starting in 2024.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
SeedTeamConfRecordBracket RatingSOS (Rank)
1 SeedsProvidenceBE18-104.0740.940 (57)
MississippiSEC19-93.9760.978 (51)
OregonP1219-93.7200.876 (67)
CincinnatiB1216-123.6080.960 (54)
2 SeedsUtahP1216-113.5891.206 (16)
MemphisAAC20-83.5860.633 (89)
PittsburghACC18-103.5530.759 (80)
DrakeMVC24-63.5260.124 (133)
3 SeedsSan FranciscoWCC22-73.485-0.04 (164)
Texas A&MSEC15-133.2961.126 (22)
IowaB1017-123.2701.099 (26)
SMUAAC19-93.1770.433 (104)
4 SeedsKansas StB1217-112.9801.036 (39)
XavierBE14-142.9511.263 (8)
Ohio StB1016-122.8931.055 (35)
RichmondA1021-72.8360.188 (123)
5 SeedsBradleyMVC21-92.7900.294 (112)
MarylandB1015-142.7760.962 (53)
SyracuseACC19-102.6991.151 (20)
ButlerBE16-132.6351.212 (15)
6 SeedsVCUA1019-92.5740.453 (100)
Virginia TechACC15-132.5210.995 (48)
NC StateACC17-112.4890.751 (81)
MinnesotaB1017-112.3400.712 (85)
7 SeedsSouth FloridaAAC21-52.2750.108 (136)
UNLVMWC17-102.1980.845 (73)
Appalachian StSBC25-52.082-0.20 (197)
UCFB1215-122.0080.855 (70)
8 SeedsLoyola-ChicagoMVC20-81.9890.270 (115)
WashingtonP1215-131.8611.091 (27)
St BonaventureA1018-101.8340.320 (108)
CornellIvy20-51.827-0.24 (209)


 
Last edited:
Unless we win the A10 tourney we’ll be heading to the NIT where hopefully we’ll be a high enough seed to get a couple of home games.
Don't count on the home game in the NIT - I think the NIT is already reserving those for the P6 teams they have guaranteed spots to.
 
Don't count on the home game in the NIT - I think the NIT is already reserving those for the P6 teams they have guaranteed spots to.

Trap why would NIT use NET ranking for auto P6 qualification instead of BPI. Just curious if u still think the committee uses BPI as their top metric. We had that debate in past. Your post above was all about NET not BPI so I assume that along w NIT rule have moved u off that take. We suck at BPI too fwiw tho better at some others like KPI and SOR.
 
S
Don't count on the home game in the NIT - I think the NIT is already reserving those for the P6 teams they have guaranteed spots to.
Yes, isn’t the guarantee 12 home games and 30 spots total For the P6?
 
Trap why would NIT use NET ranking for auto P6 qualification instead of BPI. Just curious if u still think the committee uses BPI as their top metric. We had that debate in past. Your post above was all about NET not BPI so I assume that along w NIT rule have moved u off that take. We suck at BPI too fwiw tho better at some others like KPI and SOR.
I like the BPI more, as we can see - the NET has flaws -BUT - they all have flaws really. But the NIT at least has explicitly stated how they will pick teams - so have to give them credit there. Whereas the NCAA selection - still has the human element, with the NET ranking in their pockets to use when they want.


The NIT has clearly stated the following on the NCAA website.

Instead, the NIT will guarantee two teams (based on the NET rankings) from each of six conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern). The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men's basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of win-loss record, will be selected. Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT.

So you can see - 12 teams (AT LEAST) from the P6 conferences, solely based on NET - will make the NIT. And these 12 P6 teams will be "guaranteed" a home game. They further state they will select 4 more at large teams, with deference given to the first 4 out from the NCAA tourney.

The problem is with NCAA selection- and we already see football playoff heading this direction - the more the NCAA weights a system, like the net, or BPI, or RPI, etc. - the more it will favor the big programs. Big 12 showed how the Net can be manipulated and they currently have 10 teams in the top 50 of the NET. And by saying they will use the NET - if gives the selection committee an "excuse" as to why they picked an 18-13 Big 12 team with a NET of 40 over a 24-8 mid-major with a NET 70.

And I am not for expanding the tourney as has been discussed lately. Leave it as is. I agree with Jay Bilas on this topic - when he said the other day - every team in the country already has a fair shake to make the tourney. You could always win your conference tourney, against teams of your peers, that your school chose to be affiliated with. Its not like they are asking UNCW to win the ACC tournament, they just need to win their conference tourney. Same with us.

End of the day - I expect more and more at-large bids to go to P6 teams, with the excuse being - they have better computer rankings (such as NET). And the tourney will still get its upsets and excitement, but it will just be from lower league conference champions.
 
U had said the committee used BPI first so I was just curious. BPI being a ESPN metric is undoubtedly worse. I never trust espn with numbers. The NET is very flawed we agree there. But certainly the NCAA uses it first.
 
But the NIT at least has explicitly stated how they will pick teams - so have to give them credit there. ...

Instead, the NIT will guarantee two teams (based on the NET rankings) from each of six conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern). The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men's basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of win-loss record, will be selected.

so they want to be fair by taking the top 2 in each P6 conference based on NET regardless of win-loss record?

ok, then make it from the top 6 conferences based on NET. don't hand pick the supposed P6. by some metrics, the Mountain West had a better year than the Pac12 this season. last year the MW was ranked above both the Pac12 and the ACC in the NET.

if they're claiming that's due to a flaw in the NET, then fix the NET or don't use it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gospidersgo
so they want to be fair by taking the top 2 in each P6 conference based on NET regardless of win-loss record?

ok, then make it from the top 6 conferences based on NET. don't hand pick the supposed P6. by some metrics, the Mountain West had a better year than the Pac12 this season. last year the MW was ranked above both the Pac12 and the ACC in the NET.

if they're claiming that's due to a flaw in the NET, then fix the NET or don't use it.

The NIT rule is really not about NET. It’s about P6 teams. Big school teams in NIT, more eyeballs. And advancing the p6 teams. Avoid opt outs. Tho think we’ll still have some. But this way maybe they get in a p6 team automatically that otherwise would be hard to justify choosing. Say what u want about the rules I very much dislike the 1 automatic home game, but the p6 rule is not hurting our access to NIT (it’s hurting advancement if u make it) but the elimination of low level league auto qualifiers is helping our access way more.
 
I'm anti-NIT anyway. it's the battle for 69th. 69th is still a good basketball team, but I don't know any fan of a P6 team who gets excited about the NIT.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SpiderDogg
I'm anti-NIT anyway. it's the battle for 69th. 69th is still a good basketball team, but I don't know any fan of a P6 team who gets excited about the NIT.

I’m in favor of going to 96 in ncaa & just eliminating NIT. So many more d1 teams now & the super conferences. I get why many r not. Tho most say it’s because 64 is perfect number. Except we r at 68.
 
so they want to be fair by taking the top 2 in each P6 conference based on NET regardless of win-loss record?

ok, then make it from the top 6 conferences based on NET. don't hand pick the supposed P6. by some metrics, the Mountain West had a better year than the Pac12 this season. last year the MW was ranked above both the Pac12 and the ACC in the NET.

if they're claiming that's due to a flaw in the NET, then fix the NET or don't use it.
Really should be the top 12 teams based on NET to be fair. This isn’t about fairness though, it is 100% about getting p6 teams to actually agree to play by guaranteeing them home games, and ultimately it is about money.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1
ESPN Bubble Watch has our women in the "should be in" category, which seems to point to at-large potential. Otherwise I think they'd be in the "additional expected one-bids" category as a placeholder auto bid.

 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT