Disclaimer: This is a pretty positive stream of thoughts I'm putting out here (and lengthy). This is not about Mooney in any way, except for the extent to which playing time is divided up. Please keep it to early thoughts on next year's team if possible. I apologize in advance if this post is a little disjointed/run-on.
To put it mildly the past week has been really disheartening for a Spider fan. The news about Blake Francis today helps - but not until next year. I fully understand the frustration and I'm on board with a lot of the thoughts of the current "negative side" of the board - I just don't put much of it out there publicly.
I was trying to think of what it would take for us to have a good year next year. I'm defining good as NIT berth minimum, top 4 A10, and at least NCAA bubble discussion. Since it's all I have to go on right now, I'm assuming for this post that Sal will be our only newcomer of serious consequence for next year (last 2 spots go to grad transfers or under-recruited guys who barely play, if we land someone better, great).
I think next year CAN be a very good year. A lot has to go right to make the jump from 12-20 to +/- 20-12 or better. The following are some of my thoughts and projections about what our team will look like and how this turnaround might/can happen.
Starters (minutes): Gilyard (36), Buck (33), Nick (32), Cayo (23), Grant (31)
- The loss of Khwan stings. Our most experienced player, good enough handle to bring the ball up the court with some regularity, proven and consistent double digit scorer, probably our best defender, quiet leader, and on and on.
But here's the positive. Scoring was not really the big issue last year. We knew how to put the ball in the basket. Our 4 returning starters are all double digit scoring guys capable of 20+ any night. Some of our negative offensive traits as a whole were 3 point and free throw shooting, though. In losing Khwan we actually lose the starter that was maybe weakest in these 2 areas combined (maybe Grant, but he does so much more offensively).
Cayo is likely not an improvement in 3 point and free throw shooting. But he has size and has shown to be a strong defender. That's exactly what we need - plus he is 7 or 8 inches taller than Khwan. Cayo stepping into the lineup immediately puts Buck and Nick at the 2/3 instead of 3/4. To me there is no arguing the fact that they are more naturally suited to these positions.
I truly believe the other 4 starters are the best (or at least close) top 4 players of any A10 team next year. Especially offensively, this is a dynamic, experienced, well rounded group of 4 starters. If Cayo can take the increased workload, protect Grant defensively and chip in 6 or 8 points per game I think our starters are definitely a top tier A10 starting 5.
One of my biggest keys to this year's success or lack thereof is Buck's attitude. If he "sleepwalks" at all this year we will stink. I don't think he will. If he comes out on fire, with a chip on his shoulder, something to prove, I believe the team will feed off of it and he can lead us to big things.
Bench (45 minutes remaining): Julius (21), Sal (12) --- to me this is our clear top 7. Remaining 12 minutes split between last year's redshirts and/or spring signees.
Size coming in off the bench will be greatly improved this year. JJ (6' 3"), Sal (6' 8") and whoever emerges of the 3 redshirts from last year should provide solid backup minutes at the 3 thru 5.
For Sal, I'm envisioning a role similar to what Cayo provided last year. Long, athletic, solid defensively for a team in need of exactly that. Starting the year with 5 or 6 minutes most games, increasing to 15 or so by the end of the year.
Hopefully we can pick up a grad transfer or freshman that can play the 1/2 for a handful of minutes a game to give us a reliable ball handler when Jake and/or Buck sits. We don't need a ton of help at guard, but we need something.
For JJ what I really hope is for him to have the kind of senior season Greg Robbins had for us a while back. Become that glue guy that does all the small things well, does whatever is needed that particular night. We have seen flashes of it but I'm hoping he can be more consistent.
In a strange way I think JJ is actually a big key to next year being either this year version 2.0 or a very good season. I don't think we need him to come in and score a ton or be great at anything. But he HAS to be a tough defender, a threat from 3, and provide reliable minutes for Buck, Nick and maybe Nathan.
Scoring projection:
- Grant - 16
- Cayo - 6
- Nick - 17
- Buck - 14
- Jacob - 13
- Julius - 6
- Sal - 2
- others - 2
Overall:
I think our offense will continue to be potent. Even without Khwan we have a ton of scoring options all over the court.
Defensively I'm hopeful that the increase in Nathan's minutes, the arrival of Sal, another year playing together, and a commitment from the guys to be a part of something great will help our defense just enough to keep those 80 point games closer 75 and allow us to be in more games. I'm looking for something like 22-10 and an outside shot at an at large.
There is a ton to be down about right now, no doubt. But I am hopeful that next season can bring us back to where we need to be.
To put it mildly the past week has been really disheartening for a Spider fan. The news about Blake Francis today helps - but not until next year. I fully understand the frustration and I'm on board with a lot of the thoughts of the current "negative side" of the board - I just don't put much of it out there publicly.
I was trying to think of what it would take for us to have a good year next year. I'm defining good as NIT berth minimum, top 4 A10, and at least NCAA bubble discussion. Since it's all I have to go on right now, I'm assuming for this post that Sal will be our only newcomer of serious consequence for next year (last 2 spots go to grad transfers or under-recruited guys who barely play, if we land someone better, great).
I think next year CAN be a very good year. A lot has to go right to make the jump from 12-20 to +/- 20-12 or better. The following are some of my thoughts and projections about what our team will look like and how this turnaround might/can happen.
Starters (minutes): Gilyard (36), Buck (33), Nick (32), Cayo (23), Grant (31)
- The loss of Khwan stings. Our most experienced player, good enough handle to bring the ball up the court with some regularity, proven and consistent double digit scorer, probably our best defender, quiet leader, and on and on.
But here's the positive. Scoring was not really the big issue last year. We knew how to put the ball in the basket. Our 4 returning starters are all double digit scoring guys capable of 20+ any night. Some of our negative offensive traits as a whole were 3 point and free throw shooting, though. In losing Khwan we actually lose the starter that was maybe weakest in these 2 areas combined (maybe Grant, but he does so much more offensively).
Cayo is likely not an improvement in 3 point and free throw shooting. But he has size and has shown to be a strong defender. That's exactly what we need - plus he is 7 or 8 inches taller than Khwan. Cayo stepping into the lineup immediately puts Buck and Nick at the 2/3 instead of 3/4. To me there is no arguing the fact that they are more naturally suited to these positions.
I truly believe the other 4 starters are the best (or at least close) top 4 players of any A10 team next year. Especially offensively, this is a dynamic, experienced, well rounded group of 4 starters. If Cayo can take the increased workload, protect Grant defensively and chip in 6 or 8 points per game I think our starters are definitely a top tier A10 starting 5.
One of my biggest keys to this year's success or lack thereof is Buck's attitude. If he "sleepwalks" at all this year we will stink. I don't think he will. If he comes out on fire, with a chip on his shoulder, something to prove, I believe the team will feed off of it and he can lead us to big things.
Bench (45 minutes remaining): Julius (21), Sal (12) --- to me this is our clear top 7. Remaining 12 minutes split between last year's redshirts and/or spring signees.
Size coming in off the bench will be greatly improved this year. JJ (6' 3"), Sal (6' 8") and whoever emerges of the 3 redshirts from last year should provide solid backup minutes at the 3 thru 5.
For Sal, I'm envisioning a role similar to what Cayo provided last year. Long, athletic, solid defensively for a team in need of exactly that. Starting the year with 5 or 6 minutes most games, increasing to 15 or so by the end of the year.
Hopefully we can pick up a grad transfer or freshman that can play the 1/2 for a handful of minutes a game to give us a reliable ball handler when Jake and/or Buck sits. We don't need a ton of help at guard, but we need something.
For JJ what I really hope is for him to have the kind of senior season Greg Robbins had for us a while back. Become that glue guy that does all the small things well, does whatever is needed that particular night. We have seen flashes of it but I'm hoping he can be more consistent.
In a strange way I think JJ is actually a big key to next year being either this year version 2.0 or a very good season. I don't think we need him to come in and score a ton or be great at anything. But he HAS to be a tough defender, a threat from 3, and provide reliable minutes for Buck, Nick and maybe Nathan.
Scoring projection:
- Grant - 16
- Cayo - 6
- Nick - 17
- Buck - 14
- Jacob - 13
- Julius - 6
- Sal - 2
- others - 2
Overall:
I think our offense will continue to be potent. Even without Khwan we have a ton of scoring options all over the court.
Defensively I'm hopeful that the increase in Nathan's minutes, the arrival of Sal, another year playing together, and a commitment from the guys to be a part of something great will help our defense just enough to keep those 80 point games closer 75 and allow us to be in more games. I'm looking for something like 22-10 and an outside shot at an at large.
There is a ton to be down about right now, no doubt. But I am hopeful that next season can bring us back to where we need to be.
