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How I see the coming season.

Offense/defense efficiency the last 9 years:

2010: 77/35
2011: 41/54
2012: 64/179
2013: 51/154
2014: 178/52
2015: 87/52
2016: 41/193
2017: 74/132
2018: 127/234
 
I'm surprised our offensive efficiency didn't drop further than from 41 to 127 with that huge drop in 3 point shooting.
we were 259th in 3 point shooting last year. we were 10th in 2010/11.
 
Offense/defense efficiency the last 9 years:

2010: 77/35
2011: 41/54
2012: 64/179
2013: 51/154
2014: 178/52
2015: 87/52
2016: 41/193
2017: 74/132
2018: 127/234
That seems to show the Kenpom 100 banner that teams should really want. O+D<100

Interesting how large the gaps are. Both O & D appear to be either good or not, very little middle ground.
 
I'm surprised our offensive efficiency didn't drop further than from 41 to 127 with that huge drop in 3 point shooting.
we were 259th in 3 point shooting last year. we were 10th in 2010/11.
Both 2014 and last year I think our offensive number changed significantly though out the year.
 
Defense is the bigger impact I don't care how much taller we might be. Buckingham was one of the top 10 rebounders in the A-10 last year. Rebounding and being able to stop dribble drive. Whenever, you come off a 12 win season and you lose two key STARTERS it's going to leave impact.
 
Things I think about this thread:

- 4700 is underselling what Buck meant to the team
- sometimes kids make mistakes, so I'm not mad at Buck for making a mistake in the middle of the year, just as I wasn't mad at Mooney for holding him accountable
- Jacob will be way better just from being comfortable in the knowledge that he has the authority within the team dynamics to do so -- it looked like it took half a year for him to feel comfortable doing that (I think the JMU shot was a decent fulcrum point).
- This in turn will make us a better team, because I want Jacob making decisions and calling his own number whenever the situation calls for it
- We WILL miss Buck's effort, intensity, and rebounding
- We will miss Khwan's athleticism in getting to the hole, and his security as a viable backup ball handler
- Others are underselling what we may be getting in a few of our new players
 
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I'm surprised our offensive efficiency didn't drop further than from 41 to 127 with that huge drop in 3 point shooting.
we were 259th in 3 point shooting last year. we were 10th in 2010/11.

Without looking it up, our 2pt FG% has been very good the last few years.
 
Things I think about this thread:

- 4700 is underselling what Buck meant to the team
- sometimes kids make mistakes, so I'm not mad at Buck for making a mistake in the middle of the year, just as I wasn't mad at Mooney for holding him accountable
- Jacob will be way better just from being comfortable in the knowledge that he has the authority within the team dynamics to do so -- it looked like it took half a year for him to feel comfortable doing that (I think the JMU shot was a decent fulcrum point).
- This in turn will make us a better team, because I want Jacob making decisions and calling his own number whenever the situation calls for it
- We WILL miss Buck's effort, intensity, and rebounding
- We will miss Khwan's athleticism in getting to the hole, and his security as a viable backup ball handler
- Others are underselling what we may be getting in a few of our new players
knee, nice analysis.
 
Offense/defense efficiency the last 9 years:

2010: 77/35
2011: 41/54
2012: 64/179
2013: 51/154
2014: 178/52
2015: 87/52
2016: 41/193
2017: 74/132
2018: 127/234
Brunt left after the 2015 season and our defense has gone to crap since. Is that a coincidence or was Brunt a big part of our defensive coaching.
 
Its really hard to project anything approaching .500 much less over it. We were bad last year, plain and simple. We got better as year went on, but were still just barely OK. We lose 2 major contributors. That's actually normal for college basketball, so in and of itself not a huge deal and teams regularly replace guys who leave for whatever the reason. But we need to improve just to get to .500. You improve by (a) having the guys who remain get better (but reminder that this is EVERY OTHER team also; (b) replace guys who leave with better players. So, we will have guys get better, but so will every team who returns guys (i.e. every single team). So, to improve, we need to see these guys improve MORE than other teams returnees improve (or have more returnees than other teams.) Not sure I see the path on this front. 5 returnees would have helped. And I don't know that I see a great track record for our guys improving year over year for the past many years. Our guys all seem to stay sorta the same as what they arrived with just some normal improvement that comes from experience (notable exception for TJ who was coached by his Mom in the off season). I don't see our staff doing much with any raw talent we get etc. And the path to having "better players" replacing the departed seems awfully elusive too. The guys we lost were among our better players. No one we have coming up has done anything at this level (or in high school for that matter) to indicate they will ever be better than Buck and KF, much less better next year!

This is the same thing as every year for the past 5-6 years. Some people on here have expectations that are really just unsupported hopes. Then somehow we all end up disappointed when we aren't up to the "expectations". I too hope we win 20 games (or even go .500), but can't in any reasonable way expect that. Yes, if MANY thing go really well we COULD win 19-21 as someone above expects us too. So yes if Cayo turns out to be a better version of TA and Jake turns out to be a kenny atkinson clone and Sal is A10 rookie of the year and a future Player of the Year candidate and Nick morphs from nice shooter to great scorer and GG becomes a beast on defense as well as offense we can win 20. But predicting even one of those things to happen has little to no actual factual basis.

What if Cayo is what he was last season, Grant still can't defend a lick, we have so many new guys, we can't learn "the system" , Sal and Jake aren't ready to help and the other 2nd year guys show why they couldn't get off the bench for a bad team last year? That's an 8 win team!

I see 12-14 wins as a reasonable EXPECTATION. We could win more, but I'd say we have more chance we win only 10 than we win 20!
Philly, You make a lot of sense. I am guilty as charged being one of the guys that gets optimistic every year. I get sucker punched by the poor coaching and lack of development every season, yet here I am hoping for a different result. I guess I will go that route again this season, as I really think our admin and athletic department are very happy with the status quo. No need for me to feel otherwise. So hopefully Woj and Gustavson are the second coming. Cayo becomes a 10ppg scorer and stays out of foul trouble, etc. I am banking on it.
 
Because of the nature of college basketball every player is and has to be replaceable, in the best of circumstances they are only here 4 years. Putting the pieces together each year is the coach's job.

How many times can you guys speculate on next season before next season actually starts? I guess endless guestimation/speculation keeps you busy and out of trouble.
 
I really liked the starting 5 last year. They were very young and greatly improved throughout the season. Losing Khwan and Buck really hurts us when I felt we would finally have some depth. I still feel we may have some good ones in this next crop. Mooney will have to improve his recent history of coming out of the gates unprepared.

Very interested to hear from you guys about who will emerge as the true leader of this team. Nick is the heir apparent, but will he want the job. Maybe Grant? My gut says it will be Jacob. He has the intelligence, attitude, awareness, confidence combined with that certain something a true leader has. Maybe they will all lead by committee, each bringing something to the table. It will be interesting to watch.
 
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I really liked the starting 5 last year. They were very young and greatly improved throughout the season. Losing Khwan and Buck really hurts us when I felt we would finally have some depth. I still feel we may have some good ones in this next crop. Mooney will have to improve his recent history of coming out of the gates unprepared.

Very interested to hear from you guys about who will emerge as the true leader of this team. Nick is the heir apparent, but will he want the job. Maybe Grant? My gut says it will be Jacob. He has the intelligence, attitude, awareness, confidence combined with that certain something a true leader has. Maybe they will all lead by committee, each bringing something to the table. It will be interesting to watch.

I also think it will be Jacob. He's already got the swagger.
 
Until we look prepared to start a season I am not jumping on the bandwagon.
Losing by twenty points to Delaware and Jacksonville State on your home floor. I never will forget considering neither of these teams played in the postseason last year.
 
Until we look prepared to start a season I am not jumping on the bandwagon.
Losing by twenty points to Delaware and Jacksonville State on your home floor. I never will forget considering neither of these teams played in the postseason last year.
Man, that was last year. Let sleeping dog lay where they are. You need to let go of the past.
 
ideally your PG is your leader. I think we have the right one, too. tough to lead as a freshman, but it's his team now.
Agree that we will see more of a "my team" approach from Gilyard this season, he has what it takes. You could see that he was (properly I think) walking the tightrope last year, trying not to step on the toes of those ahead of him in class. I predict that he is more comfortable taking charge this year, and that he will be even better in the role his final 2 seasons.
 
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If we can actually develop some depth on the bench that would be a huge improvement. Also maybe we should switch to a zone defense? Cause the foot speed is definitely going to be lacking...
 
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ideally your PG is your leader. I think we have the right one, too. tough to lead as a freshman, but it's his team now.
Jake is the man, Golden is the primary target on most possesions, but there were games when Sherrod seemed to take over when nothing else was working. But why the hell did it happen so late in games? Need to get him going sooner this year!
 
Oh man, you guys will be excited, but I'm most definitely not. VCU-UR games will be much more competitive this year...check out the news. Bummer...
 
Things I think about this thread:

- 4700 is underselling what Buck meant to the team
- sometimes kids make mistakes, so I'm not mad at Buck for making a mistake in the middle of the year, just as I wasn't mad at Mooney for holding him accountable
- Jacob will be way better just from being comfortable in the knowledge that he has the authority within the team dynamics to do so -- it looked like it took half a year for him to feel comfortable doing that (I think the JMU shot was a decent fulcrum point).
- This in turn will make us a better team, because I want Jacob making decisions and calling his own number whenever the situation calls for it
- We WILL miss Buck's effort, intensity, and rebounding
- We will miss Khwan's athleticism in getting to the hole, and his security as a viable backup ball handler
- Others are underselling what we may be getting in a few of our new players
New players and inexperienced players are not just a plug n play solution. We've now got the same problem and as much as we want to believe we'll get a freshman that will fill a Jr's role it's not going to happen. It's a rarity when teams at our mid major level get a freshman that is starter material. Let's all be real. I am.
 
New players and inexperienced players are not just a plug n play solution. We've now got the same problem and as much as we want to believe we'll get a freshman that will fill a Jr's role it's not going to happen. It's a rarity when teams at our mid major level get a freshman that is starter material. Let's all be real. I am.
How did it work out for Jacob Gilyard and Grant Golden?
 
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New players and inexperienced players are not just a plug n play solution. We've now got the same problem and as much as we want to believe we'll get a freshman that will fill a Jr's role it's not going to happen. It's a rarity when teams at our mid major level get a freshman that is starter material. Let's all be real. I am.
You can think whatever you want to believe, that's your right. I am going to believe in our players until they prove me wrong.
 
How did it work out for Jacob Gilyard and Grant Golden?

Well, we did a lot better the year before when we had seniors starting at their positions... The only key players that changed between 2017 to 2018 were our center (TJ to GG) and point guard (SDJ to JG). We did so much better with seniors in those positions even though the freshmen that took over did show promise. This is actually a very good example of how talented freshmen are no substitute for experience.
 
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If mooney would simplify his system then maybe freshmen (in general) would play a more significant role.
 
I saw Sherod on campus today and he looks jacked. I’m betting on a big junior year from him
 
You can think whatever you want to believe, that's your right. I am going to believe in our players until they prove me wrong.
And I believe in mine too, but losing a key player can't be ignored. As much as I'd like to think it's going to be fine, I'm likely going to be disappointed. Better to temper expectations I think. This could be wrong thinking I guess. I could be proven wrong and I'll be happy to be so.
 
How did it work out for Jacob Gilyard and Grant Golden?
Grant is one of those special freshmen that go ballistic. He'll win an awful lot of games for you. No doubt this kid is special. I don't think you guys get it. I WANT UR to be strong. The A10 needs to be strong. I don't want to see another barely average A10. It's not good for anyone in it.
 
Grant is one of those special freshmen that go ballistic. He'll win an awful lot of games for you. No doubt this kid is special. I don't think you guys get it. I WANT UR to be strong. The A10 needs to be strong. I don't want to see another barely average A10. It's not good for anyone in it.
Agree DaMan, I would love to see UR, VCU, Davidson, St Joes and a couple others knocking on the door of the top 25 every season. This is one reason so disappointed in Mooney. Would really think with VCU rolling every year, he would be spending 24 hours a day to catch and defeat them. Instead he is doing mansiere commercials now I think. And he is company of the rich man instead of the rolnik, and got a little happy and complacent.
 
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Usually seniors and upperclassmen do the best under Mooney. Going to a 20 win season almost seems unrealistic. When you figure how POOR out of conference play has been the past few years.
 
Agree DaMan, I would love to see UR, VCU, Davidson, St Joes and a couple others knocking on the door of the top 25 every season. This is one reason so disappointed in Mooney. Would really think with VCU rolling every year, he would be spending 24 hours a day to catch and defeat them. Instead he is doing mansiere commercials now I think. And he is company of the rich man instead of the rolnik, and got a little happy and complacent.
We did catch and beat with twice this year with a 12-20 team.
 
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