How I see the coming season.

[TBSpyder]

I have no idea how many wins we will have. I realize that the conventional wisdom is that if you don't have many experienced players returning, you won't win many games. Generally true, but not always. My philosophy has been to go game to game, experience each game for what it has to offer, and not to worry about the season. Last year, we started abysmally. We started A10 play abysmally. We finished tied for 5th place. I'm looking forward to seeing what a talented squad can achieve this season. Plenty of reasons for pessimism, but us oldies, need to be optimistic.

 

[SpiderDaMan]

I see 18-21 wins. A much better result.

 

[Ulla1]

I have no idea how many wins we will have. I realize that the conventional wisdom is that if you don't have many experienced players returning, you won't win many games. Generally true, but not always. My philosophy has been to go game to game, experience each game for what it has to offer, and not to worry about the season. Last year, we started abysmally. We started A10 play abysmally. We finished tied for 5th place. I'm looking forward to seeing what a talented squad can achieve this season. Plenty of reasons for pessimism, but us oldies, need to be optimistic.

TB, you got that right and guess what? The Ulla is very optimistic about this season. Look for one or maybe both of our newly recruited guards to supplement the Spiders' backcourt. Heard that Jake Wojcik is a lights out shooter, and Andre Gustavson is stronger and more athletic then you might think. Both our coaches and players on campus are already working hard. The Spiders will be just fine and compete well for the A10 championship. Roll Spide!

 

[Gospiders06]

I don't understand how we are better than last year. We are playing Boston College twice this year and Wake Forest.

 

[SpiderDaMan]

I don't understand how we are better than last year. We are playing Boston College twice this year and Wake Forest.

Point Guard plus PF = wins.

 

[Ulla1]

I don't understand how we are better than last year. We are playing Boston College twice this year and Wake Forest.

06, we will be taller for one thing and arguably more skilled (although that remains to be seen). Guys will finally be playing roles for which they are best suited. Moreover, two of our returning starters, Jacob and Grant, are REALLY GOOD PLAYERS, now with more experience and strength. If possible, Grant appears to be even bigger and more muscled-up than last year. It will be a very good year.

 

[Gospiders06]

I don't believe we are better next year. We might be a bit worse or about the same. Which is about 14-16 wins total. Consider the amount of players that have left this program this past year. Almost half of them were supposed to be back next year. I know we can't count on players coming back. I think team chemistry is going to take a long time to pull together. I see a similar result if not worse. We had zero production from the bench last year. We have three starters returning the result is a huge question mark. It seems like the same story from last year. If we had Buckingham coming back I would be more positive. He basically was a true leader on this team and his absence will be noticeable especially at the beginning. I see us coming together at the end like we always do. The start of next season is NOT going to be an easy win or a cake walk.

 

[SpiderDaMan]

I don't believe we are better next year. We might be a bit worse or about the same. Which is about 14-16 wins total. Consider the amount of players that have left this program this past year. Almost half of them were supposed to be back next year. I know we can't count on players coming back. I think team chemistry is going to take a long time to pull together. I see a similar result if not worse. We had zero production from the bench last year. We have three starters returning the result is a huge question mark. It seems like the same story from last year. If we had Buckingham coming back I would be more positive. He basically was a true leader on this team and his absence will be noticeable especially at the beginning. I see us coming together at the end like we always do. The start of next season is NOT going to be an easy win or a cake walk.

Maybe so. I was quite impressed with the way the team improved game by game to be among the best in the league. I don't see it taking as long this coming year. You guys took it to us 2x and we had a pretty decent squad.

 

[Ulla1]

I don't believe we are better next year. We might be a bit worse or about the same. Which is about 14-16 wins total. Consider the amount of players that have left this program this past year. Almost half of them were supposed to be back next year. I know we can't count on players coming back. I think team chemistry is going to take a long time to pull together. I see a similar result if not worse. We had zero production from the bench last year. We have three starters returning the result is a huge question mark. It seems like the same story from last year. If we had Buckingham coming back I would be more positive. He basically was a true leader on this team and his absence will be noticeable especially at the beginning. I see us coming together at the end like we always do. The start of next season is NOT going to be an easy win or a cake walk.

06, the real leaders of the team are back. Also, why would you want everyone back from a 12 win team?

 

[Gospiders06]

I just was expecting Khwan and Buckingham coming back. We are going to miss their experience and leadership. There isn't a guarantee we are going to the NCAA tournament next year. I believe that goal was attainable with experience and leadership. Next year we might make the NIT which I would consider a huge step back. If you want to be a respectable program you need to make the NCAA at least once every six years. That's holding a program at a high level for a mid-major status.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

I don't have a feel yet for the season but i am most excited about watching GG - I think he is special. As good as TJ was, TJ didnt get double teamed until his junior year here. GG will be double teamed ALOT next year so i dont expect his scoring to increase dramatically (but it should increase slightly). NS cant be left alone, so we'll see a lot of open shots for the other 3 players on the floor. If we find someone other than JG to hit some open shots (which i think we will), the offense will be efficient again and fun to watch.
But someone needs to sell me on the defense cuz i dont see a deep enough team to be efficient on both ends if the court...

 

[VT4700]

I don't believe we are better next year. We might be a bit worse or about the same. Which is about 14-16 wins total. Consider the amount of players that have left this program this past year. Almost half of them were supposed to be back next year. I know we can't count on players coming back. I think team chemistry is going to take a long time to pull together. I see a similar result if not worse. We had zero production from the bench last year. We have three starters returning the result is a huge question mark. It seems like the same story from last year. If we had Buckingham coming back I would be more positive. He basically was a true leader on this team and his absence will be noticeable especially at the beginning. I see us coming together at the end like we always do. The start of next season is NOT going to be an easy win or a cake walk.

How can a guy who got suspended for a game in the middle of the season (while we were on a 5 game winning streak) ever be considered a true leader? Buck is very replaceable, and we will be a better team this year without him.

 

[gcarter52]

I am with you 100% VT, just look at how the rest of the team is not letting the outside noise interfere with their groove. The are in tune with what it is going to take to produce a winning season in 18-19!!

 

[whampas]

06, the real leaders of the team are back. Also, why would you want everyone back from a 12 win team?

Agreed. Particularly the coach. You're coming around Ulla.

 

[Spider2020]

I don't believe we are better next year. We might be a bit worse or about the same. Which is about 14-16 wins total. Consider the amount of players that have left this program this past year. Almost half of them were supposed to be back next year. I know we can't count on players coming back. I think team chemistry is going to take a long time to pull together. I see a similar result if not worse. We had zero production from the bench last year. We have three starters returning the result is a huge question mark. It seems like the same story from last year. If we had Buckingham coming back I would be more positive. He basically was a true leader on this team and his absence will be noticeable especially at the beginning. I see us coming together at the end like we always do. The start of next season is NOT going to be an easy win or a cake walk.

I personally feel Fore is a bigger loss than Buckingham

 

[Gospiders06]

How can a guy who got suspended for a game in the middle of the season (while we were on a 5 game winning streak) ever be considered a true leader? Buck is very replaceable, and we will be a better team this year without him.

He got suspended for one game and we still lost the game. So the Rookie of the year in the A-10 is very replaceable? Being about the same as last year seems more realistic.

 

[MrTbone]

While I’m not optimistic, I think it would be difficult for us to be as bad as last year.

 

[VT4700]

He got suspended for one game and we still lost the game. So the Rookie of the year in the A-10 is very replaceable? Being about the same as last year seems more realistic.

Fine, so we went 12-19 with him. Yes, he is very replaceable. Considering where he ended up, it looks like I am not the only one who feels that way.

 

[MrTbone]

I think Buck is replaceable as a 4. He’s not as replaceable as a 2 where he should have been playing. It’s overly simplistic to dismiss his contributions, particularly playing way out of position.

 

[VT4700]

I think Buck is replaceable as a 4. He’s not as replaceable as a 2 where he should have been playing. It’s overly simplistic to dismiss his contributions, particularly playing way out of position.

Not thrilled with him as a 2 either. He is a good athlete, but I think he would do best as a role player with closer to 20 minutes a game than 30. He does not handle the ball or shoot well enough to be a solid, true 2. At 6'4, with his athletic ability, if he were more like a true 2, he would be at a P5 right now.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Interesting to observe where the personal attacks on the young men are coming from.

 

[spider23]

Not bashing Buck, but have a question. Did he bulk up a bunch freshman to sophomore year? The one game I was able to see in person this year, he looked quite massive, muscular. But it seemed like it possibly impeded his skill and fluidity. It will be interesting to see how it goes at Bakersfield. He will have a year to work on his game. I wonder if he actually needs to drop 15 pounds to improve his perimeter game.

 

[Marley13]

I'm always surprised how fast some posters are to abandon ship.

 

[VT4700]

I'm always surprised how fast some posters are to abandon ship.

I am too. So much negativity on here about a program I assume we all are cheering for. I cannot make it make sense.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Fine, so we went 12-19 with him. Yes, he is very replaceable. Considering where he ended up, it looks like I am not the only one who feels that way.

I actually agree with you that Buckingham is replaceable, as is any player. Problem is that there is no clear replacement (upgrade) on board.

 

[gcarter52]

I actually agree with you that Buckingham is replaceable, as is any player. Problem is that there is no clear replacement (upgrade) on board.

Don't judge the book by its cover, you may get bitten by an insect, lol. Remember that addition can come by way of subtraction. .

 

[Ulla1]

Don't judge the book by its cover, you may get bitten by an insect, lol. Remember that addition can come by way of subtraction. .

gcarter, you are spot on. Our two incoming guards are likely to surprise many and the following year Blake Francis, a proven commodity, will further supplement the backcourt.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Don't judge the book by its cover, you may get bitten by an insect, lol. Remember that addition can come by way of subtraction. .

Don't disagree that it is possible to gain addition by subtraction. As I always say, mark it, anyone interested can revisit in a year to see who was right.

 

[VT4700]

I actually agree with you that Buckingham is replaceable, as is any player. Problem is that there is no clear replacement (upgrade) on board.

I do not think any player is replaceable. Think of where we would be right now if Jacob and Grant left instead of Khwan and Buck. We would not have a true PG or a big. Also, we would be in trouble without Nick this year. We would have had a hard time replacing any of our top 3, but our 4th and 5th starters from last year are very replaceable. We probably would have won less than 10 games if non shooting threats Khwan and Buck were starting without a big like Grant around.

It might look like there is no clear replacement for Buck, but we also went into last season wondering what we had in Jacob and Grant. These new guys might just surprise a few of you, and I feel pretty confident they will be better fits. 12-20 is 12-20, so I think a different looking lineup could only be a good thing.

 

[ur2K]

What % should Buck have shot to be considered a "shooter"?

 

[VT4700]

What % should Buck have shot to be considered a "shooter"?

It is not just percentage. It is having a good enough shot where the defense needs to get out on you, which as a result makes everyone else on the court better. ShawnDre comes to mind as a recent guy who defenses ran after if he were left open, but still shot nearly 40% from 3. When wide open and set, he was probably closer to 50%. Buck shot 32% from 3 last year, and pretty much every shot was a wide open, unguarded one.

 

[spiderman]

in 2010/11 we shot 39.1% from 3 as a team, with 4 starters who took the most 3's all shooting over 40%.

we shot horribly last year. only Nick was over 40%. Gilyard was ok at 36.8% and I believe that will improve.
everyone else was below 33%. that's awful.

so I'm changing my mind. shooting was a bigger problem than defense. we've added shooters. we need to shoot better to turn some of those losses into wins.

 

[fan2011]

in 2010/11 we shot 39.1% from 3 as a team, with 4 starters who took the most 3's all shooting over 40%.

we shot horribly last year. only Nick was over 40%. Gilyard was ok at 36.8% and I believe that will improve.
everyone else was below 33%. that's awful.

so I'm changing my mind. shooting was a bigger problem than defense. we've added shooters. we need to shoot better to turn some of those losses into wins.

We ranked 127th in offensive efficiency and 234th in defensive efficiency. Defense was a much, much bigger problem than offense.

 

[97spiderfan]

We sucked at both, which is what happens with 12 win teams. Defense was worse than offense, we lost our two best defensive players. If only Buck was a better 3 point shooter. Yep, things should be much better this year because we are taller. OK.

 

[VT4700]

in 2010/11 we shot 39.1% from 3 as a team, with 4 starters who took the most 3's all shooting over 40%.

we shot horribly last year. only Nick was over 40%. Gilyard was ok at 36.8% and I believe that will improve.
everyone else was below 33%. that's awful.

so I'm changing my mind. shooting was a bigger problem than defense. we've added shooters. we need to shoot better to turn some of those losses into wins.

I show Nick at 39.1, Jacob at 38.4, and JJ at 34.3, but close enough to what you said, and I agree with you. We need to shoot better, and I think we will. We also need to play better team defense, and I think with a different lineup, we will do that as well.

 

[MrTbone]

Not thrilled with him as a 2 either. He is a good athlete, but I think he would do best as a role player with closer to 20 minutes a game than 30. He does not handle the ball or shoot well enough to be a solid, true 2. At 6'4, with his athletic ability, if he were more like a true 2, he would be at a P5 right now.

I would agree that he doesn't handle or shoot well enough as a 2. Fair assessment. He does other stuff that probably makes up for that (steals, rebounds, charges taken, generally good defense) so I don't think you can disregard those attributes.

I do think there are probably better fits. It's obviously extremely unclear what we have as most of the other options for 2 haven't played a minute of actual gametime except for JJ who is definitely not an equivalent replacement for Buck.

 

[PhillySpider]

Its really hard to project anything approaching .500 much less over it. We were bad last year, plain and simple. We got better as year went on, but were still just barely OK. We lose 2 major contributors. That's actually normal for college basketball, so in and of itself not a huge deal and teams regularly replace guys who leave for whatever the reason. But we need to improve just to get to .500. You improve by (a) having the guys who remain get better (but reminder that this is EVERY OTHER team also; (b) replace guys who leave with better players. So, we will have guys get better, but so will every team who returns guys (i.e. every single team). So, to improve, we need to see these guys improve MORE than other teams returnees improve (or have more returnees than other teams.) Not sure I see the path on this front. 5 returnees would have helped. And I don't know that I see a great track record for our guys improving year over year for the past many years. Our guys all seem to stay sorta the same as what they arrived with just some normal improvement that comes from experience (notable exception for TJ who was coached by his Mom in the off season). I don't see our staff doing much with any raw talent we get etc. And the path to having "better players" replacing the departed seems awfully elusive too. The guys we lost were among our better players. No one we have coming up has done anything at this level (or in high school for that matter) to indicate they will ever be better than Buck and KF, much less better next year!

This is the same thing as every year for the past 5-6 years. Some people on here have expectations that are really just unsupported hopes. Then somehow we all end up disappointed when we aren't up to the "expectations". I too hope we win 20 games (or even go .500), but can't in any reasonable way expect that. Yes, if MANY thing go really well we COULD win 19-21 as someone above expects us too. So yes if Cayo turns out to be a better version of TA and Jake turns out to be a kenny atkinson clone and Sal is A10 rookie of the year and a future Player of the Year candidate and Nick morphs from nice shooter to great scorer and GG becomes a beast on defense as well as offense we can win 20. But predicting even one of those things to happen has little to no actual factual basis.

What if Cayo is what he was last season, Grant still can't defend a lick, we have so many new guys, we can't learn "the system" , Sal and Jake aren't ready to help and the other 2nd year guys show why they couldn't get off the bench for a bad team last year? That's an 8 win team!

I see 12-14 wins as a reasonable EXPECTATION. We could win more, but I'd say we have more chance we win only 10 than we win 20!

 

[spiderman]

I show Nick at 39.1, Jacob at 38.4, and JJ at 34.3, but close enough to what you said, and I agree with you. We need to shoot better, and I think we will. We also need to play better team defense, and I think with a different lineup, we will do that as well.

hmm. you're right. I used rivals stats and it looks like they don't include the A10 tournament games for some reason.

2011 ... how were the offensive and defensive efficiencies of the 2010/11 team?

 

[VT4700]

Its really hard to project anything approaching .500 much less over it. We were bad last year, plain and simple. We got better as year went on, but were still just barely OK. We lose 2 major contributors. That's actually normal for college basketball, so in and of itself not a huge deal and teams regularly replace guys who leave for whatever the reason. But we need to improve just to get to .500. You improve by (a) having the guys who remain get better (but reminder that this is EVERY OTHER team also; (b) replace guys who leave with better players. So, we will have guys get better, but so will every team who returns guys (i.e. every single team). So, to improve, we need to see these guys improve MORE than other teams returnees improve (or have more returnees than other teams.) Not sure I see the path on this front. 5 returnees would have helped. And I don't know that I see a great track record for our guys improving year over year for the past many years. Our guys all seem to stay sorta the same as what they arrived with just some normal improvement that comes from experience (notable exception for TJ who was coached by his Mom in the off season). I don't see our staff doing much with any raw talent we get etc. And the path to having "better players" replacing the departed seems awfully elusive too. The guys we lost were among our better players. No one we have coming up has done anything at this level (or in high school for that matter) to indicate they will ever be better than Buck and KF, much less better next year!

This is the same thing as every year for the past 5-6 years. Some people on here have expectations that are really just unsupported hopes. Then somehow we all end up disappointed when we aren't up to the "expectations". I too hope we win 20 games (or even go .500), but can't in any reasonable way expect that. Yes, if MANY thing go really well we COULD win 19-21 as someone above expects us too. So yes if Cayo turns out to be a better version of TA and Jake turns out to be a kenny atkinson clone and Sal is A10 rookie of the year and a future Player of the Year candidate and Nick morphs from nice shooter to great scorer and GG becomes a beast on defense as well as offense we can win 20. But predicting even one of those things to happen has little to no actual factual basis.

What if Cayo is what he was last season, Grant still can't defend a lick, we have so many new guys, we can't learn "the system" , Sal and Jake aren't ready to help and the other 2nd year guys show why they couldn't get off the bench for a bad team last year? That's an 8 win team!

I see 12-14 wins as a reasonable EXPECTATION. We could win more, but I'd say we have more chance we win only 10 than we win 20!

Jacob, Nick, and Grant do not have to improve more than other teams guys improve. They are already very good, and if they just improve a little, which we can assume they will, it is the other teams guys that need to improve A LOT to even get close to them.

I disagree about our track record of improving guys. You mentioned TJ as an exception, but if you don't want to go way back to Harp and look at what we did with him, keeping it more recent, we can look at ShawnDre, Terry Allen, and Kendall as better than normal improvement. And, you cannot have it both ways and talk about how good Khwan was and how much we will miss him, without giving credit for his improvement. It is fair to want us to have a few more guys with better than normal improvement the past few years, but a little unfair to act like TJ was the only guy who has improved a lot while here.

We need our new guys to fit in, show they belong in the A-10, and be solid role players to the top 3. I think they will and we will have a good year as a result. You do not, and that is a fair argument. Time will tell.

 

[VT4700]

hmm. you're right. I used rivals stats and it looks like they don't include the A10 tournament games for some reason.

2011 ... how were the offensive and defensive efficiencies of the 2010/11 team?

Really, really good. Offense was 41 and defense was 54. The year before that (2009/2010) we were 77 on O and 35 on D. When we were the first team left out of the tourney in 2015, we were 87 on O and 52 on D. Looks like when our defensive numbers are good, our results are good.