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Bracketology update

Stanford goes down! So Lunardi will probably have them moving up to a 10 seed now. If Texas didn’t drop any when losing at home by 20 to a bad team no way Stanford drops losing on the road to a ranked team
 
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I think all of these forecasts are slightly delayed and look at computer rankings in addition to w/l quads. If we can keep our current ranking of 37 NET, 24 RPI and hopefully get our Kenpom in the low 40s, we should be in good shape. I assume all the major conferences have a tournament and the bubble teams will typically not have great seeds, which means many may lose early in their tournament.

We seem to be setup great for the A10 tournament. Probably playing Davidson 1st and then seeded to play RI, who we have already beat, with St. Louis and St. B having to both go through Dayton before playing us. We have to keep winning, but I like the road we have to take.
The idea that Kenpom rating is in anyway relevant to the selection committee is nuts.
 
Meh. They both made it last year.
We got next.
Ply... they are playing one game... just because this is a great game, they are BOTH NOT deserving of an NCAA bid. You show that you are an amateur of college basketball with every other post you make. Do you want one of them to get an at large instead of the Spiders? If not, the loser doesn't deserve to be in the NCAA's. Are you going to say this same thing every time you watch a very close lower conference tournament?
 
Ply... they are playing one game... just because this is a great game, they are BOTH NOT deserving of an NCAA bid. You show that you are an amateur of college basketball with every other post you make. Do you want one of them to get an at large instead of the Spiders? If not, the loser doesn't deserve to be in the NCAA's. Are you going to say this same thing every time you watch a very close lower conference tournament?

I’ve watched all of Belmont’s conference games this year and about 12 of Murray State’s. They are absolutely both better than any of the P6 bubble teams. Just because I believe these teams are deserving doesn’t mean I believe they will make it. Please stop incorrectly saying I said something I didn’t say and taking my words out of context. The only other “low major” conference tournament that has the potential to feature two teams this good is the SOCON.

Just because you don’t pay attention to the OVC doesn’t mean that the teams there are not good. The OVC has outperformed the A10 for the past decade in the NCAA tournament. Maybe you should take note of that instead of blindly attacking anybody who says there are good teams besides Richmond
 
Stanford goes down! So Lunardi will probably have them moving up to a 10 seed now. If Texas didn’t drop any when losing at home by 20 to a bad team no way Stanford drops losing on the road to a ranked team
The insanity is immeasurable. Texas was humiliated today at home. Humiliated!!! And they don't drop behind us with a 57 NET.

The bubble couldn't have gone better for us today and we didn't budge and no one dropped. Amazing!! Its exactly what I've been saying about the NET for the past month.

All good wins and no bad losses for all P6 teams.

It's rigged.
 
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From ESPN Bubble Watch:
Bids from traditional "one-bid" leagues: 21 teams
Locks: 32 teams
The bubble: 28 teams for 1 available spots
Should be in: 5 teams
Work to do: 25 teams

28 teams for 1 spot? This is going to be tougher than I thought.
Oh crap, they cut the field from 68 to 54!
 
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By virtually every available metric, we are a tournament team. Top 25 in RPI. 37 in NET. 10 road wins. Second place in our league. Beat the top team in the Big Ten. Anyone who is leaving us out in the tournament is doing so by flying in the face of literally every data set the NCAA itself claims to value.
 
And an OOC SOS of 74, ( using Warren Nolan), which is better than a lot of other bubble teams. Also, all these stats and efficiencies are more and more relevant, and we are 53rd in offensive efficiency and 54th in defensive efficiency. Only 26 teams are better at both than we are. Might not matter, but you never know, and it is impressive.
 
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By virtually every available metric, we are a tournament team. Top 25 in RPI. 37 in NET. 10 road wins. Second place in our league. Beat the top team in the Big Ten. Anyone who is leaving us out in the tournament is doing so by flying in the face of literally every data set the NCAA itself claims to value.

NIT confirmed.
 
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I really don't get the love for Indiana - by the way Archie Miller ripped into Lunardi yesterday anyone see that? Told Lunardi to go back to the trash can and Sesame Street.

On other hand Archie your team is Net 60, you are the 11 seed in B10. The 11 seed!!

Lunardi had you in and still does, u should probably be thanking him.
 
I really don't get the love for Indiana - by the way Archie Miller ripped into Lunardi yesterday anyone see that? Told Lunardi to go back to the trash can and Sesame Street.

On other hand Archie your team is Net 60, you are the 11 seed in B10. The 11 seed!!

Lunardi had you in and still does, u should probably be thanking him.
The 11 seed is in the bracket?? Holy crap.
 
Bracket Matrix update now has us as last one in. We're in one more bracket than UCLA is.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com
Tried to summarize the 31 Brackets that the site updated today.

Team/number/12/11/10/9
ETSU/31/9/16/6/0
Stanford/26/3/18/5/0
UR/22/5/16/1/0
WSU/16/2/12/1/1
UCLA/15/2/11/2/0
Cincinnati/14/5/9/0/0
Texas/13/12/0/0/0
NCSU/8/1/7/0/0
UNI/1/1/0/0/0
Purdue/1/1/0/0/0

While I was doing that 3 more brackets added with us in UCLA out...

Now
ETSU/34
Stanford/27
UR/25
WSU/19
UCLA/15
Cincinnati/17
Texas/15
NCSU/8
UNI/1
Purdue/1
 
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Bracket Matrix update now has us as last one in. We're in one more bracket than UCLA is.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com
Good news. Someone has us as a 9. Thats where we should be.

The most maddening part of this are the virtual “locks” sitting at 9, 10. X, Stanford, Indiana, Marquette. Can they ever drop? MU has been such garbage

And what about AZ. They lost again, this time to garbage Washington. That is 4 in a row. The PAC12 is pathetic.
 
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Good news. Someone has us as a 9. Thats where we should be.

The most maddening part of this are the virtual “locks” sitting at 9, 10. X, Stanford, Indiana, Marquette.
Don't forget there is a lag...
Games Happen, then Bracketologist "analyze" and publish, then Bracket Matrix updated that publication. Stanford is falling fast, just not sure if it is far enough.
 
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Bracket Matrix update now has us as last one in. We're in one more bracket than UCLA is.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com
How often do they update? I love the site but I find it a bit difficult.
They separate the updated brackets from the "stale" ones but still include the old ones in their Average Seed and # of Brackets. For example, how do you determine UCLA's "current" situation without manually backing out the un-updated seeds?
 
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How often do they update? I love the site but I find it a bit difficult.
They separate the updated brackets from the "stale" ones but still include the old ones in their Average Seed and # of Brackets. For example, how do you determine UCLA's "current" situation without manually backing out the un-updated seeds?
Like I did in post #738?

And even then the date they list is when they added it to their site not when it was posted, or which games it includes.

Usually updated once a day about the same time as the NET. Now seems to be adding a second or third update each day.
 
Like I did in post #738?

And even then the date they list is when they added it to their site not when it was posted, or which games it includes.

Usually updated once a day about the same time as the NET. Now seems to be adding a second or third update each day.
Yeah, like that. :) I appreciate you doing it.
 
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Liberty is up 45-26 heading into the half. Looks like they’ll be dancing. I would not want to be the 5 seed that has to play them...
 
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I see....

Now we are in more brackets than Texas, too. The trend is going the right way.

Last question on that site - is the Average Seed just the simple median of the seeds a team received? Or do they adjust it somehow if you only get a few "bids?" Say Cincy is only in 10 brackets, and they all have them on the 11 line. Is their average seed 11? Or do they add an adjustment to reflect how few brackets they are in?
 
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I see....

Now we are in more brackets than Texas, too. The trend is going the right way.

Last question on that site - is the Average Seed just the simple median of the seeds a team received? Or do they adjust it somehow if you only get a few "bids?" Say Cincy is only in 10 brackets, and they all have them on the 11 line. Is their average seed 11? Or do they add an adjustment to reflect how few brackets they are in?
I don't see an adjustment.

Purdue 2x10, 5X11, 3x12 = 11.10

URI 1x7 =7.00 :)

What I don't know is how they decide a bracket is too stale and remove it before replacing it.
I think they often have 123 Brackets...
 
Liberty is up 45-26 heading into the half. Looks like they’ll be dancing. I would not want to be the 5 seed that has to play them...
Is there a non-major team that you don't like? :D
 
I see....

Now we are in more brackets than Texas, too. The trend is going the right way.

Last question on that site - is the Average Seed just the simple median of the seeds a team received? Or do they adjust it somehow if you only get a few "bids?" Say Cincy is only in 10 brackets, and they all have them on the 11 line. Is their average seed 11? Or do they add an adjustment to reflect how few brackets they are in?
Don’t know the exact formula, but it’s clearly some combination of number of brackets and average seed, at least for bubble teams.

For example, we are in more brackets (59) than both Texas (56) and UCLA (52), but we have the lowest average seed among the three. Somehow that adds up to Texas, then us, and UCLA is currently out.
 
The insanity is immeasurable. Texas was humiliated today at home. Humiliated!!! And they don't drop behind us with a 57 NET.

The bubble couldn't have gone better for us today and we didn't budge and no one dropped. Amazing!! Its exactly what I've been saying about the NET for the past month.

All good wins and no bad losses for all P6 teams.

It's rigged.
I realize you posted this before the NET was updated. Texas dropped 11 spots. That some of these teams aren't dropping in brackets is very irritating. But as today shows, sometimes you have to wait for those, too.

There were three games that didn't go our way; two we REALLY wanted and the third would have put the committee to the test. But overall, a good day. I am encouraged that we are now "in" the majority of brackets. Screw ESPN.

We just need to keep winning.
 
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Have you guys seen the whacked out WCC bracket?
I might have known they structured their tourney this way, but I had forgotten.
 
I realize you posted this before the NET was updated. Texas dropped 11 spots. That some of these teams aren't dropping in brackets is very irritating. But as today shows, sometimes you have to wait for those, too.

There were three games that didn't go our way; two we REALLY wanted and the third would have put the committee to the test. But overall, a good day. I am encouraged that we are now "in" the majority of brackets. Screw ESPN.

We just need to keep winning.
I think on many of these bubble teams we just need to wait for them to lose their first game in their conference tournament while we avoid doing the same.

 
Don’t know the exact formula, but it’s clearly some combination of number of brackets and average seed, at least for bubble teams.

For example, we are in more brackets (59) than both Texas (56) and UCLA (52), but we have the lowest average seed among the three. Somehow that adds up to Texas, then us, and UCLA is currently out.
It appears the "average seed" is simply a mean. I think that is what he was asking.

But it seems they sort by number of brackets, then by average seed, to show who is in or out. But leave in the Autobids.
 
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