Bracketology update
- Thread starter Gospiders06
- Start date
Looking at the Big 10:
Ohio State has lost 6 of 7 games.
Penn State has lost 3 of the last 5. One of its wins was over Ohio State.
Michigan has lost of 4 of its last 5.
Minn has won 3 of their last 5, but wins over Ohio State and Penn State.
Purdue has lost 4 of its last 5.
Ohio State has lost 6 of 7 games.
Penn State has lost 3 of the last 5. One of its wins was over Ohio State.
Michigan has lost of 4 of its last 5.
Minn has won 3 of their last 5, but wins over Ohio State and Penn State.
Purdue has lost 4 of its last 5.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Palm at CBS has updated this morning...
8 Dayton
34 VCU
42 UR (First Four)
44 SLU (Last First Four)
47 URI (Third out)
Palm at CBS has updated this morning...
8 Dayton
34 VCU
42 UR (First Four)
44 SLU (Last First Four)
47 URI (Third out)
Tuesday is big game for both sides in terms of NCAA resume. The team that loses, its not over from an NCAA bid standpoint - but it becomes an uphill battle the rest of the season.
I think our path to an at-large is really very simple (to explain that is, not to accomplish).
We need to split with VCU and win everything else in the regular season (and then not lose in our first A-10 tourney game). That would be 25-6 and we would finish 2nd (at least tied) in the A-10. An additional loss not only pushes us to 24-7 but likely pushes below 2nd in the A-10. 2nd in the conference is going to be important I think. If we are on the bubble with other A-10 teams, the Committee likely looks at conference to "separate" teams. If we are on bubble with non-conference folks (and we would be on it with both) then I think they look to see how hard you tried to schedule OOC. In the end, I think 24-7 regular season (and say 25-8 after A-10 tourney) likely won't get it done. 8 losses including a bad Radford loss is going to be hard to overcome and we will have one good win (Wisc) and one solid win (VCU- - but a split and the win at home presumably). It might be OK to finish 24-7 in reg season if that's still tied for 2nd in conference and we make it to finals of A-10 and lose to Dayton. In fact that probably is good enough IMHO. But 24-7 regular season and then a loss in A-10 (other than to Dayton in the Finals) is going to just get us a few home NIT games.
We need to split with VCU and win everything else in the regular season (and then not lose in our first A-10 tourney game). That would be 25-6 and we would finish 2nd (at least tied) in the A-10. An additional loss not only pushes us to 24-7 but likely pushes below 2nd in the A-10. 2nd in the conference is going to be important I think. If we are on the bubble with other A-10 teams, the Committee likely looks at conference to "separate" teams. If we are on bubble with non-conference folks (and we would be on it with both) then I think they look to see how hard you tried to schedule OOC. In the end, I think 24-7 regular season (and say 25-8 after A-10 tourney) likely won't get it done. 8 losses including a bad Radford loss is going to be hard to overcome and we will have one good win (Wisc) and one solid win (VCU- - but a split and the win at home presumably). It might be OK to finish 24-7 in reg season if that's still tied for 2nd in conference and we make it to finals of A-10 and lose to Dayton. In fact that probably is good enough IMHO. But 24-7 regular season and then a loss in A-10 (other than to Dayton in the Finals) is going to just get us a few home NIT games.
It actually looks like we are the last one in if you look over on the right... Either way, we are in, but just after SLU...
Maybe, but I was also looking below at his team bracket index (seed 11), I thought that might be his S curve.
I don't know if any of his listings are Alphabetical.
We need to win the rest of our home games and probably can afford one or two road losses, as long as those are not awful ones. If we beat VCU at home and lose to VCU and one of Bona/Duquesne on the road but win the rest, I like our chances.
What I'm not going to like is if the committee says a home loss to #76 SLU, a neutral loss to #199 Radford, and an away loss to #136 SBU are all the same...
So let's just win them all until November...
I agree they should tweak the quad numbers a little. A home win over #76 should not be the same as a road win over #240. Quads 2,3 and 4 all have way too much separation between home and road, and quad 4 should be 200 and above. A home win over 161 is a lot better than a home win over 350, and a home win over #31 is a lot better than a road win over #135, but not according to the quads.
This might end up pretty accurate. This would put us 14-4 IC, and we should be okay here if we just get to the conference semis. I think we would have a chance at 13-5, but this might mean we need to get to the conference finals. Sure would be nice to get another quad 1 win tomorrow. Might be our last chance at one before the conference tourney.
With likely numerous other bubble teams, and the possibility of lower conferences getting an extra bid with an unlikely tourney winner, lets just win enough to remove any doubt.
Probably is in the regular season. If we can finish 2nd or 3rd, and win our first tourney game, we could have a good chance for a quad 1 win in the semis.
I understand the reasoning behind games against the same team potentially being in different quads home and away, but it's confusing the way they are doing it. Just make teams 1-75 Quad 1, 76-150 Quad 2, 151-225 Quad 3 and everyone else Quad 4 or however you want to do it, award a certain number of points for each type of win and then award bonus points for road wins. It would be easier to understand that way and still accomplish the same thing.
They already do something similar. It gets reflected in your NET ranking.
While it's true a home game against #31 and a road game against #135 will both land in Quad 2, the former will have a more positive (or less negative) impact on your NET.
I'm sure they're not just looking at the Quads in a vacuum. They sort the games by opponents' rank within each quad.
I agree the "home court disadvantage" baked into the quad ranges is too wide.
I believe they set the ranges up so at least there's no way a home-and-away opponent could wind up "two quads apart" - in other words, if a game at VCU is Quad 1 it's impossible for a home game against VCU to be in Quad 3.
CollegeBasketballTalk: Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large contention
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/01/28/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch/
I don’t agree with the assessment that we’re in a bad spot. But I’d say we are if we can’t beat VCU tonight.
https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/01/28/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch/
I don’t agree with the assessment that we’re in a bad spot. But I’d say we are if we can’t beat VCU tonight.
We do need to sweep, it's a must imo. But I think we're ok if we do that & take care of business otherwise. He's probably looking very critically at our schedule, past & future and must not realize we have the Lunardi ace up our sleeve.
A win tonight would be huge, but I think there is way too much basketball left to say it's a must win. We could still beat them at home, finish ahead of them in the conference, and finish 14-4 IC, and if 14-4 IC puts us in 2nd place, that would look pretty good with wins over VCU and URI. I have been saying 13-5 IC, but with so many other A-10 teams hanging around the bubble this year, we might need to get to 14-4. Also, 14-4 likely gets us to 2nd or at least 3rd, while 13-5 might put us in the dreaded 4th spot this year. We do need as many good wins as possible, so if we do lose tonight, we probably would need to beat them at home and get another good win in the conference semis. So, if our 3 biggest remaining games are VCU twice and the conference semis (we better get there this year), then we probably need to win 2 of those 3.
14-4 has been good enough for at least 2nd every year since we went to 18 games. We may not be able to catch Dayton - that's out of our control - but we should be striving for first.
4th or worse would be disappointing given our strong start, and if it sets us up for a 4/5 quarterfinal with St. Louis, that's not good. I think they're a bad matchup for us.
It's nice to be speculating about this rather than worrying about having to play on Wednesday in Brooklyn.
4th or worse would be disappointing given our strong start, and if it sets us up for a 4/5 quarterfinal with St. Louis, that's not good. I think they're a bad matchup for us.
It's nice to be speculating about this rather than worrying about having to play on Wednesday in Brooklyn.
Was hoping for 1st before our loss to Dayton, but we would have to win the rest and they would have to lose 3, so I am realistically hoping for 2nd now. If we need to win our semifinal game in the tourney, 2nd would would be a lot better than 3rd since it would give us an extra 2 1/2 hours of rest before a possible semi game.
Regarding this years team: As pissed as I am about tonight’s game and seeing Mooney once again totally out coached, we still have a shot. Things are never as good or bad as they seem. Lots of basketball left. Bubble is getting weaker and weaker by the day. We missed an opportunity tonight, but not a bad loss to the committee.
regarding CM’s record against VCU: Flat out unacceptable!
regarding CM’s record against VCU: Flat out unacceptable!
Not a bad loss at all, and no different had it happened now or a month from now. Things just look worse now than they are because we just played our 2 toughest conference games back to back. We have already played all the top teams in the conference, and the schedule will get easier in February. We still have a shot. Let's win the next 3 and get to 8-3 IC and 18-6 overall going into the VCU game.
Of course the committee will ignore a 19 pt beat down but instead say oh look but they beat BC who beat UVa & VT.
Hopefully, the committee will say "they beat Wisconsin, Rhode Island, VCU, and added a big win in the A-10 semis". We still have a shot, and I guess those that don't think that thought we had to go 16-2 IC.
Well I think that and only 1 more loss would likely get it done yes. But those r viciously long odds now.
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