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Year to Date - Analytical Review

Spiders05

Spiders05

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May 12, 2003
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So far 1+1+1 = 1. I'm not sure why but those of you that know me know that I like numbers.

I've had a sneaking suspicion that one of our biggest issues this year was that we were chasing downs. We're not winning on first down (picking up at least 4 yards) and putting ourselves into predictable situations.

I've charted every offensive play so far this season (I believe all 320 of them). I viewed winning a down as picking up 4 yards+ on first or having 7+ yards after two or converting for a first down/touchdown.

Some things I quickly saw in my analysis:
  • Only 30 of our 109 second down opportunities were for 5 yards or less.
  • We're only converting 27% of plays when 3-9 yards to go for the first/TD.
    • To drill down further....if there are 3-5 yards to go for a first, there's only an 18% chance we pick it up on that down.
  • I took a look to see how often we're "winning the down" or making enough yards to stay ahead of the down & distance, divided by total number of opportunities to "win the down" (plays)
    • UVA - 26.1%
    • Fordham - 55.1%
    • StFU - 40%
    • Stonybrook - 40%
    • JMU - 33.3%
  • If you're a defensive coordinator and you've forced us into 3rd down, congratulations, you now have a 66% chance that we're passing it. If you ignore the Fordham game, we pass on 3rd down 81% of the time.
  • We've had 3rd & 5 or less 21 times this season. We've failed to gain positive yardage 12 of those times.
I'm going to continue to look at the data but it seems to me as though we're not winning enough on first down and are chasing too much, making us predictable. Second, we have to get more physical at the point of attack in short yardage situations.
 
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Awesome analysis. That definitely doesn’t help. You can run whatever you want on 2 and 4. On 2nd and 10, you’re very limited offensively
 
What is the breakdown of run vs pass on 3rd and 4th and short (3 yards or less)? It feels like we ALWAYS run the ball and lose yards in these situations. Never any creative play calling.
 
URWilk110 said:
What is the breakdown of run vs pass on 3rd and 4th and short (3 yards or less)? It feels like we ALWAYS run the ball and lose yards in these situations. Never any creative play calling.
Click to expand...

Let me get back to you on that one, as I had saved the worksheet to my desktop, rather than my cloud.

I CAN tell you from memory that we've run the ball on every fourth down we've had so far this year. I also remember looking specifically at yardage attained on 3rd and short runs and you're right. Slightly more than half the time we fail to pick up positive yardage. Gets back to my point of attack comment in the original post.
 
Your post is exactly the sort of information that is helpful for this board -- relevant and enlightening. It's helpful to read the analysis, and certainly refreshing to read something that is not a vitriolic rant.

definition of Vitriolic from Google:
adjective: vitriolic
filled with bitter criticism or malice.
 
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05 - good work as usual from you. Question to all posters - we have a thread for the quarterback question which is needing to do something different - maybe Mancuso gets a shot? What else can we do to improve our running game? Bring back Tim Hightower or Barry Redden - if only we could - or who else do you think can provide some more power running?
 
05 taking out the Fordham and UVA game. We appear to have a 19% 3rd down conversion rate (8/42) That is way below normal... correct?

great job on the data.
 
spider fan said:
05 - good work as usual from you. Question to all posters - we have a thread for the quarterback question which is needing to do something different - maybe Mancuso gets a shot? What else can we do to improve our running game? Bring back Tim Hightower or Barry Redden - if only we could - or who else do you think can provide some more power running?
Click to expand...

Recruit a fullback?

There are a few reasons that we are not very good at the point of attack and they are all part of the design of our offense:

1- Our offensive line is not big. Remember the whole 'we want quicker linemen that are zone blockers instead of maulers' deal? That problem has been amplified this year by having redshirt frosh McConnell #62 in the middle for most of the season. He is going to be a very good player but he's young and smaller. Our guards are less experienced too. There is just no push in the middle.
2- Our offensive system does not believe in fullbacks. Look at our roster. There are none.

Absent a change in philosophy that would have us using an extra offensive lineman as a fullback, I don't see how we 'win at the point of attack' with the cards we have right now.
 
Moliva, you are correct.................."making a fullback" out of one of the players we already have may be the best option, but the reality of that happening?
 
MolivaManiac said:
Recruit a fullback?

There are a few reasons that we are not very good at the point of attack and they are all part of the design of our offense:

1- Our offensive line is not big. Remember the whole 'we want quicker linemen that are zone blockers instead of maulers' deal? That problem has been amplified this year by having redshirt frosh McConnell #62 in the middle for most of the season. He is going to be a very good player but he's young and smaller. Our guards are less experienced too. There is just no push in the middle.
2- Our offensive system does not believe in fullbacks. Look at our roster. There are none.

Absent a change in philosophy that would have us using an extra offensive lineman as a fullback, I don't see how we 'win at the point of attack' with the cards we have right now.
Click to expand...

We have a fullback but he’s playing LB as a frosh.His name is Grayson Overstreet.Broke all kind of Va High School records.Try to tacke him.He’s on the wrong side of the ball.

When #2 went down we waited way too long to play #4.Running #20,#6,#5 on sweeps had been silly.
#4 was forced into more service when #18 went down.We risk #14 doing too much on kickoff/punt returns.
#10 has a ton of speed too.
 
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MolivaManiac said:
Recruit a fullback?

There are a few reasons that we are not very good at the point of attack and they are all part of the design of our offense:

1- Our offensive line is not big. Remember the whole 'we want quicker linemen that are zone blockers instead of maulers' deal? That problem has been amplified this year by having redshirt frosh McConnell #62 in the middle for most of the season. He is going to be a very good player but he's young and smaller. Our guards are less experienced too. There is just no push in the middle.
2- Our offensive system does not believe in fullbacks. Look at our roster. There are none.

Absent a change in philosophy that would have us using an extra offensive lineman as a fullback, I don't see how we 'win at the point of attack' with the cards we have right now.
Click to expand...

I agree completely. However this is more than a current staff problem. The fact that there aren’t enough bigs that are in their years 3-5 is partially on the previous staff. We’ve neglected this for years.
 
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Dykes has looked as good as advertised in his limited time. Losing Goodall and Brissett clearly hurts, as they might be our two best skill players on O. But it's true too that we can't block anyone, so it might not matter if we had Herschel Walker back there.
 
Thanks for the info about Overstreet. And please don't even make me think about what it would be like to have Herschel Walker - particularly in his college days.........................too big of a dream...........................
 
My family is from the Roanoke area and all attended a rival high school of Staunton River, where Overstreet played. Overstreet is the real deal. I think we are very fortunate to have on either side of the ball. I would love to see him get a shot in the offensive backfield.
 
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I-M-UR said:
05 taking out the Fordham and UVA game. We appear to have a 19% 3rd down conversion rate (8/42) That is way below normal... correct?

great job on the data.
Click to expand...

We are only at 23% if you count all games, which is 117th out of 124 teams.
 
What exactly is our offensive identify? I know you hear that phrase thrown around all the time but it's a good question. We were told that Russ wanted to utilize more of a spread offense with a running threat at QB like he used at Chattanooga. I guess we will see if our philosophy of going with smaller, quicker OL will pay off in the future but right now we can't move anyone off the ball...especially in short yardage and goal line situations. Ironically our "glory days" teams were run based offenses that lined up in a ton of i formation. If you go back to 07-09 years we lined up in a ton of I formation with a TE and twins WR's...that was really our favored personnel.
 
Captain Anderson said:
What exactly is our offensive identify? I know you hear that phrase thrown around all the time but it's a good question. We were told that Russ wanted to utilize more of a spread offense with a running threat at QB like he used at Chattanooga. I guess we will see if our philosophy of going with smaller, quicker OL will pay off in the future but right now we can't move anyone off the ball...especially in short yardage and goal line situations. Ironically our "glory days" teams were run based offenses that lined up in a ton of i formation. If you go back to 07-09 years we lined up in a ton of I formation with a TE and twins WR's...that was really our favored personnel.
Click to expand...
Good point! “Where is the beef?”
 
I-M-UR said:
Well i'm working on doing my part... although me getting to 300 may not happen this season, and if it did I'd have the mobility of a tree stump.
Click to expand...
Could you still hit a golf ball?
 
Ulla1 said:
Barry Redden was the real deal; also did "right well" in the NFL. Spiders could use a heavy dose of Barry or Tim Hightower on third downs this year.
Click to expand...
Throw in #3, primo lead blocker, John Crone. An unsung hero of our running game back then, not to mention a 100% completion percentage with his TD pass to Eric Ward in the National Championship game. Ah, great memories!!

Have seen Collins used as a lead blocker on a few plays this year, but not as much as I would like, but that isn't our style anymore.
 
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Spiders05 said:
14 occurrences with one pass (incomplete).
Click to expand...

That's unbelievably stubborn(or uncreative) play calling when it fails almost every time. If you never mix it up the defense loads the box and even if we had a strong o-line it would be difficult to be successful.
 
URWilk110 said:
That's unbelievably stubborn(or uncreative) play calling when it fails almost every time. If you never mix it up the defense loads the box and even if we had a strong o-line it would be difficult to be successful.
Click to expand...
I don't get why we can't pick up 1 or 2 yards on third or forth down. It's completely mindless play calling. Is it a 'testing your manhood' call to simply try to run the opponent over..... it isn't working. Talk about insanity.
 
As I said on an earlier thread, against JMU we had 4th and 2 or less three different times in Madison territory, resulting in a short field goal and two punts. And all of these were early on, when we could have actually stayed in the ballgame or even taken the lead. The play calling in these situations has just been sad. If we don't have the line/back strength to punch it through, then try something else other than a punt.......seems pretty obvious to me. At some point in time we having nothing to lose by trying, even if the odds aren't great.
 
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Punting! I'm glad you brought it up. This is an analytical thread, so...here are the punts from the last 2 games:

4-8 UR 50 Micah Breckenridge punt 35 yards to the SBU15, out-of-bounds.
4-7 SBU 40 Micah Breckenridge punt 22 yards to the SBU18, fair catch by D. Washington.
4-16 UR 32 Micah Breckenridge punt 50 yards to the SBU18, downed.
4-14 SBU 40 Micah Breckenridge punt 22 yards to the SBU18, fair catch by D. Washington.
4-1 SBU 49 Micah Breckenridge punt 30 yards to the SBU19, fair catch by D. Washington.
4-5 UR 41 Micah Breckenridge punt 37 yards to the SBU22, fair catch by D. Washington.
4-8 UR 11 Micah Breckenridge punt 40 yards to the SBU49, downed.
4-18 UR 16 Micah Breckenridge punt 27 yards to the UR43, out-of-bounds.
4-10 UR 25 Micah Breckenridge punt 46 yards to the SBU29, D. Washington return 44 yards to the UR27, out-of-bounds (Micah Breckenridge).

4-2 JMU 44 Micah Breckenridge punt 24 yards to the JMU20, fair catch by D'Angelo Amos.
4-2 JMU 41 Micah Breckenridge punt 19 yards to the JMU22, out-of-bounds.
4-8 UR 27 Micah Breckenridge punt 45 yards to the JMU28, downed.
4-10 UR 37 Micah Breckenridge punt 38 yards to the JMU25, fair catch by D'Angelo Amos.
4-13 UR 15 Micah Breckenridge punt 50 yards to the JMU35, downed.
4-12 UR 35 Micah Breckenridge punt 29 yards to the JMU36, fair catch by D'Angelo Amos,
4-22 UR 48 Micah Breckenridge punt 48 yards to the JMU4, downed.
4-4 JMU 41 Micah Breckenridge punt 26 yards to the JMU15, fair catch by D'Angelo Amos.
4-6 UR 44 Micah Breckenridge punt 26 yards to the JMU30, out-of-bounds.

OK, I believe Russ punts too much. I want a coach that will at least occasionally go for it, especially in positive territory. He doesn't need to be Mike Vrabel or Ron Rivera, but come on! Our offense has only scored 10 points in two straight games. We are conceding the ball far too easily, and that wears our defense out. Even if we are rarely successful, those successes will extend drives, possibly leading to scores and at the very least keeping the opposing offense off the field a few more minutes. Now, I totally get the argument against going for it - mainly, that our short yardage offense isn't very good. OK, fine.

Say you're convinced we should never go for it unless it's absolutely mandated by the game situation. Why are almost all of our kicks from across midfield these pooches right down the middle for an easy fair catch? We have a rugby style punter who can kick with both feet. If you're always going to punt in that situation, at least go for the corners. Every Time. Ball goes into the end zone? OK. I'm not seeing much difference between a touchback to the 20 and a fair catch on the 18. We're just not gaining enough field position advantage with these short punts. If you're not going to pin your opponent back coming out of their end zone at least occasionally, (you know where this is going) you might as well go for it on 4th down!
 
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Spiders05 said:
So far 1+1+1 = 1. I'm not sure why but those of you that know me know that I like numbers.

I've had a sneaking suspicion that one of our biggest issues this year was that we were chasing downs. We're not winning on first down (picking up at least 4 yards) and putting ourselves into predictable situations.

I've charted every offensive play so far this season (I believe all 320 of them). I viewed winning a down as picking up 4 yards+ on first or having 7+ yards after two or converting for a first down/touchdown.

Some things I quickly saw in my analysis:
  • Only 30 of our 109 second down opportunities were for 5 yards or less.
  • We're only converting 27% of plays when 3-9 yards to go for the first/TD.
    • To drill down further....if there are 3-5 yards to go for a first, there's only an 18% chance we pick it up on that down.
  • I took a look to see how often we're "winning the down" or making enough yards to stay ahead of the down & distance, divided by total number of opportunities to "win the down" (plays)
    • UVA - 26.1%
    • Fordham - 55.1%
    • StFU - 40%
    • Stonybrook - 40%
    • JMU - 33.3%
  • If you're a defensive coordinator and you've forced us into 3rd down, congratulations, you now have a 66% chance that we're passing it. If you ignore the Fordham game, we pass on 3rd down 81% of the time.
  • We've had 3rd & 5 or less 21 times this season. We've failed to gain positive yardage 12 of those times.
I'm going to continue to look at the data but it seems to me as though we're not winning enough on first down and are chasing too much, making us predictable. Second, we have to get more physical at the point of attack in short yardage situations.
Click to expand...
The offensive line just can't open holes for the backs. We can rarely move the ball on a 3rd or 4th and 1. They pass protect fairly well. Guess the OC just doesn't have many options.
All that being said, 28 points should be enough. We are giving up 35 points a game. Offense is the least of our worries.
 
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