WVU is a really interesting opponent to analyze how we might do against them. A pretty clear profile emerges about them. On offense, they don't shoot it especially well from 2 point or 3 point range. In fact, they are barely average from 3 and downright bad from 2 point range. However, they are still 16th in the country in offensive efficiency. How can that be? Two simple things - - they don't turn it over much and they REALLY get on the offensive glass. They rebound an astonishing just over 40% of their own misses! That's a really absurd number, but they have done it very well in every game, including Gonzaga and they led the nation(!) in offensive rebounding last year. Another thing that stands ut, however, is some deterioration in our defense. We have been great against the 3 this year, but I'd argue that's a fiction of small sample size and several not very good shooting opponents, Our 2 pt. defense however hasn't been good. That shows up on the eye test when we look at all the dribble penetration and the stats say the same where we are 216th in the country defending the 2.
So in some ways, they look like a team we might match up well with - - they don't seem to have a lot of guys who will get to the rim off dribble penetration or that shoot the three, so I feel good about our ability to defend them - - - but our perimeter defense needs to hold up. That they don't turn it over much is ok because our defense isn't really predicated on generating turnovers. On the other hand, the offensive rebounding is downright scary. We give up offensive rebounds to bad rebounding teams and its a real possibility that they just keep rebounding their misses over and over til they score. I also worry about getting in foul trouble trying to stop that from happening. The good news I think is that its pretty much a given in all our games we are going to give up offensive rebounds and we'll still win most of them. So we don't have to stop them, we just have to keep them from completely totally dominating!!
When we have the ball is also interesting. They were an elite defensive team last year across the board. This year, not as much so far. They look like a predominately man team (albeit I have seen only a little film) which is good for us. They defend the 3 pretty well and they remain elite at not fouling and not giving free throws. However, they are pretty average otherwise defensively. Average shooting percentage against, average at generating turnovers, don't block a lot of shots etc. That they don't foul or give up free throws is fine because we continue to be near the bottom of the NCAA at getting to the line anyway. So the fact that we almost certainly won't get there in this game isn't a big deal. We, however remain one of the very best 2 point shooting teams in the county for a 2nd straight year. That appears to be a spot they might be vulnerable and something we can attack. They key will be whether we can get solid contributions out of Grant and Nick down low. If they can stop that without doubling, our offense will likely struggle to get to the hoop with their size and physicality. If those guys can score and force double teams, our offense should be successful and we can win.
In the end, i think we'll find ways to score and ways to stop their first shots. If we can keep guys out of foul trouble and limit the damage (including fouling) on the WVU offensive glass, we'll be right there with a shot to win. But we are going to need most everything to go well for us for that to happen. Its a super tall task, but a win here will really validate us as a top 15ish team!
So in some ways, they look like a team we might match up well with - - they don't seem to have a lot of guys who will get to the rim off dribble penetration or that shoot the three, so I feel good about our ability to defend them - - - but our perimeter defense needs to hold up. That they don't turn it over much is ok because our defense isn't really predicated on generating turnovers. On the other hand, the offensive rebounding is downright scary. We give up offensive rebounds to bad rebounding teams and its a real possibility that they just keep rebounding their misses over and over til they score. I also worry about getting in foul trouble trying to stop that from happening. The good news I think is that its pretty much a given in all our games we are going to give up offensive rebounds and we'll still win most of them. So we don't have to stop them, we just have to keep them from completely totally dominating!!
When we have the ball is also interesting. They were an elite defensive team last year across the board. This year, not as much so far. They look like a predominately man team (albeit I have seen only a little film) which is good for us. They defend the 3 pretty well and they remain elite at not fouling and not giving free throws. However, they are pretty average otherwise defensively. Average shooting percentage against, average at generating turnovers, don't block a lot of shots etc. That they don't foul or give up free throws is fine because we continue to be near the bottom of the NCAA at getting to the line anyway. So the fact that we almost certainly won't get there in this game isn't a big deal. We, however remain one of the very best 2 point shooting teams in the county for a 2nd straight year. That appears to be a spot they might be vulnerable and something we can attack. They key will be whether we can get solid contributions out of Grant and Nick down low. If they can stop that without doubling, our offense will likely struggle to get to the hoop with their size and physicality. If those guys can score and force double teams, our offense should be successful and we can win.
In the end, i think we'll find ways to score and ways to stop their first shots. If we can keep guys out of foul trouble and limit the damage (including fouling) on the WVU offensive glass, we'll be right there with a shot to win. But we are going to need most everything to go well for us for that to happen. Its a super tall task, but a win here will really validate us as a top 15ish team!
