What happens if Mooney stays or goes?

[fan2011]

You're right, I guess I just am very pessimistic when it comes to the program. I have lower expectations than a lot of people on this board. And usually when I say that I get met with people calling me out or laughing at me or calling it pathetic that my expectations are low. But it is like being a Browns fan the past decade. Your expectations are low because it is realistic. I like to always keep my expectations realistic and in my opinion I think we're a program that makes an NCAA tournament 1-2 times a decade. Maybe some of that comes from not making since the time I started college at Richmond, hell probably a lot of it is. I guess maybe what I'm trying to say and maybe all of my way of thinking is simply that the way I think is based on what I've seen. And I've never seen that success so I can't expect it.

One question I had though that I brought up and just thought was interesting.

Mooney made the NCAA's in back to back years. What if he had made them in 2009-2010. What if instead of making it the next year he made it in 2013-2014 instead? The biggest knock on him is that he hasn't made it in so many years but what if he had made the same amount but they were simply spread out more?

For a lot of people the biggest factor, and perhaps the only factor, in judging coaches is YST, years since tournament. That is why everyone drools over the coaches for teams in the tournament every year. Even if their overall resume may not be great they have a "perfect" YST. That is why people are frustrated with Mooney, his YST is way too high. Pretty much all other possible evaluation criteria take a back seat to YST. If Mooney had made the tournament in 2011 and 2016 instead of 2010 and 2011 people would be singing a much different tune right now.

I would guess that an acceptable YST for most on the board is 3 or less, maybe 4. Mooney is at 7 now.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

You're right, I guess I just am very pessimistic when it comes to the program. I have lower expectations than a lot of people on this board. And usually when I say that I get met with people calling me out or laughing at me or calling it pathetic that my expectations are low. But it is like being a Browns fan the past decade. Your expectations are low because it is realistic. I like to always keep my expectations realistic and in my opinion I think we're a program that makes an NCAA tournament 1-2 times a decade. Maybe some of that comes from not making since the time I started college at Richmond, hell probably a lot of it is. I guess maybe what I'm trying to say and maybe all of my way of thinking is simply that the way I think is based on what I've seen. And I've never seen that success so I can't expect it.

One question I had though that I brought up and just thought was interesting.

Mooney made the NCAA's in back to back years. What if he had made them in 2009-2010. What if instead of making it the next year he made it in 2013-2014 instead? The biggest knock on him is that he hasn't made it in so many years but what if he had made the same amount but they were simply spread out more?

It's still 2/13. The upside to your "What if?" (Richmond basketball is all about "what if?" isn't it?) is that more athletes and students would get to enjoy 1 trip.

Even Bob Black's low expectations are that each class should get to experience it at least once.

 

[plydogg]

For a lot of people the biggest factor, and perhaps the only factor, in judging coaches is YST, years since tournament. That is why everyone drools over the coaches for teams in the tournament this year, even if their overall resume may be bad they have a "perfect" YST. That is why people are frustrated with Mooney, his YST is way too high. Pretty much all other possible evaluation criteria take a back seat to YST.

YST is years since tournament?

I think that is a completely valid argument to make. I like hearing the opinions of others because actually during the 2015-2016 season I really started thinking that he should be fired. It just came down to expectations going into the season being high and finishing .500. This year my expectations were rock bottom and getting 12 wins actually exceeded them. I think next year my expectations will be in the 16-18 win area until we see how the bench and incoming freshmen look. That could wildly change things.

 

[plydogg]

It's still 2/13. The upside to your "What if?" (Richmond basketball is all about "what if?" isn't it?) is that more athletes and students would get to enjoy 1 trip.

Even Bob Black's low expectations are that each class should get to experience it at least once.

Maybe this is why I'm not optimistic about the program. For pretty much the entirety of my lifetime my expectations are that we'll make the program once or twice a decade. Maybe that will change in the future but the biggest point I was trying to make was being a realist.

The reason I asked that hypothetical is because the biggest reasoning I've seen here and on twitter is that it has been X amount of years since we have gone to the tournament. That's why the hypothetical changed that down to something like 3 or 4 instead of 7

 

[97spiderfan]

Plydogg, thanks for admitting your pessimism on the program. I think the difference between the Mooney supporters and the Mooney detractors is that the detractors think are program can be much better than what it is and has been over the past 7 years.

Whereas his supporters feel that we are more of mid-major program with good academics and can only make the NCAA as you say 1-2 times per decade. I think they are either younger fans like yourself, who have never seen our program achieve anything near greatness or older fans who are used to us being a CAA program and that is their benchmark.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Plydogg, thanks for admitting your pessimism on the program. I think the difference between the Mooney supporters and the Mooney detractors is that the detractors think are program can be much better than what it is and has been over the past 7 years.

Whereas his supporters feel that we are more of mid-major program with good academics and can only make the NCAA as you say 1-2 times per decade. I think they are either younger fans like yourself, who have never seen our program achieve anything near greatness or older fans who are used to us being a CAA program and that is their benchmark.

Yes. Once Tarrant got to the NCAAs he pretty much went every other year. And when he didn't, he was contending for conference titles. Every other year would be nice, but I think most of us would be fine with every 4 years, and occasionally competing for the regular season crown.

We've had 26 cracks at conference titles (reg season & tourney) and have 1.
Haven't even finished 2nd since Beilein (our first year in the A10).

 

[Octapod]

He hasn't went to the A10 tournament finals since the S16 season either. His teams flame out in the first game they play in the conference tourney about half the time.

For a lot of people the biggest factor, and perhaps the only factor, in judging coaches is YST, years since tournament. That is why everyone drools over the coaches for teams in the tournament every year. Even if their overall resume may not be great they have a "perfect" YST. That is why people are frustrated with Mooney, his YST is way too high. Pretty much all other possible evaluation criteria take a back seat to YST. If Mooney had made the tournament in 2011 and 2016 instead of 2010 and 2011 people would be singing a much different tune right now.

I would guess that an acceptable YST for most on the board is 3 or less, maybe 4. Mooney is at 7 now.

 

[MolivaManiac]

Mooney made the NCAA's in back to back years. What if he had made them in 2009-2010. What if instead of making it the next year he made it in 2013-2014 instead? The biggest knock on him is that he hasn't made it in so many years but what if he had made the same amount but they were simply spread out more?

This is an interesting point that I have thought about too. Having them spread out would have helped a bit because it would have quieted those that think CM got lucky with Kevin Anderson and nothing more. If he had sent teams to the tournament 4 years apart, they would have been completely different teams with different sets of players. The 'got lucky' deal is no longer valid.

 

[MolivaManiac]

Maybe this is why I'm not optimistic about the program. For pretty much the entirety of my lifetime my expectations are that we'll make the program once or twice a decade.

I appreciate you putting that out there. Perhaps this is the goal of Paul Queally, John Hardt and the entire Athletic Department too. I'd just like them to communicate this so that supporters can know what they should be looking for.

 

[97spiderfan]

This is an interesting point that I have thought about too. Having them spread out would have helped a bit because it would have quieted those that think CM got lucky with Kevin Anderson and nothing more. If he had sent teams to the tournament 4 years apart, they would have been completely different teams with different sets of players. The 'got lucky' deal is no longer valid.

I think it would make some difference, if we would have went say in 2009 and again in 2014, versus back to back.

As Eight Legger likes to remind us, there are 2 coaches in the country among Top 100 programs who are still employed and have not taken their team to the NCAA in 7 years. Pat Chambers (Penn State) and Chris Mooney.

And in Year 7, we are perhaps the farthest away from an NCAA bid than we have ever been.

 

[spider fan]

The bar was "William and Mary" level which is never go or never have gone than along came Tarrant. His coaching ability made a huge difference and he set a reachable standard - in 12 years 5 NCAA's and 4 NIT's. There is no reason at all we can't achieve that. Part of the problem is we have been so lousy that the thinking has diminished as to what is realistic. 75% of the time in either NIT or NCAA with a minimum being NCAA at least once every 3 years. Yes hiccups along the way but 7 years without an NCAA Tournament appearance puts us back to pre Tarrant when there were no expectations to ever go. If you have no hard and fast goal you are bound to hit it. The fact that there is another closeby school in the same city that has been in the tournament almost every year raise the stakes. What do they possibly have to offer that our school doesn't other than being much easier for an athlete to meet admission standards?

 

[spiderman]

And in Year 7, we are perhaps the farthest away from an NCAA bid than we have ever been.

if I thought that, I'd be with you. but while our record sucked this year, I really like our roster. I think we're close. one of us is wrong.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

This is an interesting point that I have thought about too. Having them spread out would have helped a bit because it would have quieted those that think CM got lucky with Kevin Anderson and nothing more. If he had sent teams to the tournament 4 years apart, they would have been completely different teams with different sets of players. The 'got lucky' deal is no longer valid.

This is what this program does to us. "If this had happened, then maybe we'd feel differently."
I actually think there are some decision makers around the RC that subconsciously give credit for hypotheticals.
Candy and Nuts.

 

[Gospiders06]

Unfortunately, nothing is going to happen this year. Usually a change happens right after a season ends. We are conceived that next year we will win 18 or more wins. But that doesn't guarantee you a NCAA tournament bid. Seeing how bad we have been in non-conference play should be very concerning. Even with TJ Cline and SDJ as seniors we had issues playing against ACC talent level. Next year, I expect a little bit of production from the bench. I expect the starters to take up most of the minutes. By the time we reach the end of the season they will be exhausted. We lose in the second round of the A-10 tournament. We get excited about playing in the NIT. No one should be excited about playing in the NIT. Going to the NIT should not be accepted.

 

[fan2011]

Unfortunately, nothing is going to happen this year. Usually a change happens right after a season ends. We are conceived that next year we will win 18 or more wins. But that doesn't guarantee you a NCAA tournament bid. Seeing how bad we have been in non-conference play should be very concerning. Even with TJ Cline and SDJ as seniors we had issues playing against ACC talent level. Next year, I expect a little bit of production from the bench. I expect the starters to take up most of the minutes. By the time we reach the end of the season they will be exhausted. We lose in the second round of the A-10 tournament. We get excited about playing in the NIT. No one should be excited about playing in the NIT. Going to the NIT should not be accepted.

Not having a bench certainly hurts and makes our team less versatile, but I doubt it contributes to long term exhaustion problems. How many teams in D1 don't have some players who play over 30 minutes per game? I would guess close to 0. Every A10 team had at least 1 player play over 30 minutes. Playing 30 to 32 minutes per game is normal for very good players, and does not tire them out over the course of the season. The starters on our team play 30-32 minutes per game, only Gilyard plays more than normal at 36 minutes per game. Our team got better over the course of the season, which is the opposite of what would be expected if fatigue due to a small bench was a significant issue.

 

[spiderman]

Not having a bench certainly hurts and makes our team less versatile, but I doubt it contributes to long term exhaustion problems. How many teams in D1 don't have some players who play over 30 minutes per game? I would guess close to 0. Every A10 team had at least 1 player play over 30 minutes. Playing 30 to 32 minutes per game is normal for very good players, and does not tire them out over the course of the season. The starters on our team play 30-32 minutes per game, only Gilyard plays more than normal at 36 minutes per game. Our team got consistently better over the course of the season, which is the opposite of what would be expected if fatigue due to a small bench was a significant issue.

that's all true, but someone will post that we were exhausted again tomorrow.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

that's all true, but someone will post that we were exhausted again tomorrow.

I'm tired just reading about it.

 

[Marley13]

In the 1984 NCAA win against Auburn Kelvin played 40 minutes, Beck played 40 minutes, Newman played 39, Flye played, 38, JD played 36, Tim Hardin played 5 and Lee Goss played 2. Don't know if that's how it played out during the regular season but that's a lot of minutes for the starters.

 

[gospidersgo]

This discussion about whether it matters when the NCAA years were had me thinking about Hurley's situation at URI. The parallels to Mooney up to this point are pretty interesting.

-First D1 head coaching job is a short tenure as head coach of a smaller program with no NCAA (Hurley 2 years at Wagner, Mooney 1 year at Air Force)

-Similar record through first six seasons at current A10 job (Hurley 113-82, Mooney 112-87)

-Back to back tourney appearances in year 5 and 6

-Serious interest from big suitors - Mooney signs big extension to stay at UR, what will Hurley do...

If he wants to jump somewhere now is the time, URI loses a lot of senior leadership/scoring off of this year's team and there are some major openings.

 

[SpiderFan]

I think he will jump this year although the openings are not exactly great jobs--you're looking at Ole Miss, Pitt and UConn right now. I could see him going to Ole Miss if they pay and are serious about their basketball program. They're falling behind Auburn, LSU, Georgia and Miss State.

<<Bolded for Importance>>
Someone mentioned above but we aren't even competing for A10 titles. We're barely making the Top 4 for a double bye 1 out of 3 years, maybe. When was the last time we had a big win over a top program? Even Jerry got a signature win at Kansas. Yes the Spiders made the Sweet 16 in 2011, but other than the 1st round win over Vandy, the second round win we got somewhat lucky that Morehead State upset Louisville (I think). The mentality of all fans (staff supporters/staff detractors) is that we have no shot of winning the A10--EVERY YEAR. I'm not even talking about getting to the NCAAs--people seem to expect that we will be somewhere between 5 and 10 every year in conference. Is the A10 too hard for Richmond? Shouldn't be. New motto at the school should aim low and maybe be surprised.

 

[ur2K]

Here's an exercise on the value of actually making the tournament

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-10-conference/554562-ncaa-credit-payouts-3.html#post15203778

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I think we have a shot of winning the A10 next year. There, I said it.

 

[Eight Legger]

Well I would hope so. If we have everyone back, the goal absolutely should be a regular season and tournament championship. I might go so far as to say that should be the expectation. No more excuses.

 

[fan2011]

I am really not sure what to make of the conference next year, but I think we should be top 4. If we get Bryce or some other good player we should be in the running for regular season champion. I think SLU might make a big jump next year too, could be the main competition for top of the A10.

 

[spiderman]

if we improve defensively we can do big things. each player.
we can argue all day whether or not this scheme is the best fit for our lineup, but we have enough athleticism to be better defensively no matter the scheme. they've got to want to be great defensively. and it has to be all 5. one weak link in any possession means we have a bad defense.

 

[97spiderfan]

I am really not sure what to make of the conference next year, but I think we should be top 4. If we get Bryce or some other good player we should be in the running for regular season champion. I think SLU might make a big jump next year too, could be the main competition for top of the A10.

I don't see us being Top 4 in the preseason next year. I think we slot in about 6th or 7th when the preseason ranking is announced next year.

 

[gospidersgo]

97 that's probably fair, but there are so many questions on every A10 roster right now (transfers, late signings, coaching changes) that until August I don't think we will have a clear view of what each team will look like.

 

[97spiderfan]

97 that's probably fair, but there are so many questions on every A10 roster right now (transfers, late signings, coaching changes) that until August I don't think we will have a clear view of what each team will look like.

Very true. I know we have our starting 5 coming back but if we want to be ranked higher we had better be bringing in an impact grad transfer and or Bryce with our open ships.

And of course, transfer work both ways. Some school will lose some (aka Fordham) and other will gain some impact transfers.

 

[UR80sfan]

I don't see us being Top 4 in the preseason next year. I think we slot in about 6th or 7th when the preseason ranking is announced next year.

I like this answer. We finish the season tied for 5th place. The last 2/3 of conference play we improve significantly, we are returning our top 7 players and adding at least one very high quality player and you think we are going to finish 6th or 7th? Interesting.

 

[fatherspider]

For a lot of people the biggest factor, and perhaps the only factor, in judging coaches is YST, years since tournament. That is why everyone drools over the coaches for teams in the tournament every year. Even if their overall resume may not be great they have a "perfect" YST. That is why people are frustrated with Mooney, his YST is way too high. Pretty much all other possible evaluation criteria take a back seat to YST. If Mooney had made the tournament in 2011 and 2016 instead of 2010 and 2011 people would be singing a much different tune right now.

I would guess that an acceptable YST for most on the board is 3 or less, maybe 4. Mooney is at 7 now.

We also watch the darn games and see that, over the years, his coaching deficiencies have cost talented teams from reaching their potential.

 

[fan2011]

We also watch the darn games and see that, over the years, his coaching deficiencies have cost talented teams from reaching their potential.

I guess I disagree with a lot of people then. Mooney's teams tend to outperform their talent level by my eye. The problem is Mooney has not been able to recruit talent consistently.

 

[64Spider]

The problem is Mooney has not been able to recruit talent consistently.

Wrong. Mooney consistently recruits good talent. He knows what he wants. He just doesn't close.
Like me kicking tires on Lamborghinis but coming home with an SUV.

 

[Eight Legger]

He's been trying to "compete" in the A10 with a CAA roster, and he's managed to convince a number of fans that this is our lot in life and we should just accept it.

 

[fan2011]

Wrong. Mooney consistently recruits good talent. He knows what he wants. He just doesn't close.
Like me kicking tires on Lamborghinis but coming home with an SUV.

Recruiting isn't identifying talent, and I agree Mooney has no problem doing that. Recruiting is closing, and Mooney has not been able to do that consistantly.

 

[32counter]

Wrong. Mooney consistently recruits good talent. He knows what he wants. He just doesn't close.
Like me kicking tires on Lamborghinis but coming home with an SUV.

Some SVUs are pretty nice particularly the
Turbo versions V8 with leather seats and moon roofs.

 

[AnnapSpider]

Recruiting isn't identifying talent, and I agree Mooney has no problem doing that. Recruiting is closing, and Mooney has not been able to do that consistantly.

Having been in a sales manager's position most of my career, the biggest problem with a salesperson is
that they don't ask for the order. Maybe CM is too respectable to the recruits and doesn't ask them for a
commitment.
Sounds simple, but you're not walking in the salesperson's shoes.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Here's an exercise on the value of actually making the tournament

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-10-conference/554562-ncaa-credit-payouts-3.html#post15203778

Good Lord that's depressing.
Teams that make the tourney often can better afford a buyout; ironically, they wouldn't want one.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Well I would hope so. If we have everyone back, the goal absolutely should be a regular season and tournament championship. I might go so far as to say that should be the expectation. No more excuses.

That should always be the goal. CM hasn't even been able to finish 2nd in the regular season, even with KA and Harp.

 

[Gospiders06]

I dont believe it matters anymore what conference you are in. Look at Loyola Chicago and Nevada both are in the sweet 16. one is definitely going to the elite. Next year has many variables. But I have seen a pattern over the years with Mooney. The frustrating for me is how we didnt make the tournament with top scorers in program history TJ Cline and SDJ.

 

[spider23]

Agree about frustration not making it with TJ and SDJ. No depth at all around them, relying o freshman Buck and Nick, and absolutely no inside help - Kwesi who averaged 1 ppg in the CAA.