Wake Forest

[SpiderHoops32]

Beat UMBC (no. 324) at home by 5. They were also down 13 to Bucknell on the road and came back to win.

In the wise words of Trey Davis, "Lets get a f*cking road win."

 

[fan2011]

We need to hope our defense gets it together by Wednesday. Wake has not shot well (48% from 2, 22% from 3), but they have dominated the offensive glass leading to a ton of second chance points (they pull down an offensive rebound on 45% of their missed shots). This could be a bad matchup, although if we shoot really well again we can win it.

We have shot 61% from 2 and 42% from 3 in our first two games.

 

[urfan1]

Wake will be a huge challenge, we need to play well to beat them on the road. I think we can win, we will have to pay much better defense than we have in our first two games.

 

[MolivaManiac]

Wake was a 4 point underdog at Bucknell today. There will be no moral victories in Winston Salem on Wednesday.

 

[urfan1]

Wake will be a challenge and possibly a chance to make some early season noise. But on the road is always tougher. The first 5 or so games each season are usually a mystery for teams, I don't get to excited or down for the first 5 or so games. It takes at least that long for most teams to find themselves.

 

[WebSpinner]

R, disagree a bit, teams with the same coach and a veteran roster, should start fast, know what they are doing. if a new coach, starting frosh and transfers, then maybe takes a few games.

 

[Ulla1]

R, disagree a bit, teams with the same coach and a veteran roster, should start fast, know what they are doing. if a new coach, starting frosh and transfers, then maybe takes a few games.

Good point, Spinner. But there are six, yes 6 new players on the roster. That is nearly half of the 13 man roster! So let them have a few games to figure things out. OSC

 

[fan2011]

Good point, Spinner. But there are six, yes 6 new players on the roster. That is nearly half of the 13 man roster! So let them have a few games to figure things out. OSC

We are getting about 70 minutes a game from new players so far this year. About a third of our minutes are going to guys who have never played for us before.

 

[TBSpyder]

I'd agree that it would take a few games to gel as a team, if this was professional basketball, where after season, everyone goes home. Indeed, many have offseason professions. But in college basketball, these guys are practicing together almost all year long. Even the new players, have been with the team since June, and Marshall was with the team all last year. We also have had two scrimmages. No excuses for losing the game to JMU. We were outhustled, and out efforted, pure and simple. Playing more games, won't change that. It's up to the team, they must realize, that their talent level, alone, will only win a few games. But, determination, perseverance, and effort, will win games, even when facing more talented teams.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Wake is must win. Need to enter Vegas no less than 3-1 with 2 BIG NCAA RESUME games in vegas. We need to win one out there and come home at least 4-2

 

[calispider]

I agree no excuse to lose to JMU. I find it surprising Mooney says he thought our D would be where our O has been the last two games. To me it's alarming because either we are not putting forth the effort, don't have the personnel to play the D, other teams have our D figured out, or are guys are not prepared enough by the coaches.

Yes it's early but we don't have time to figure it out if we are going to make a NCAA run. This is where NCAA resumes are made of. I'll reserve judgement till early December, but in less than a month we should know if we are a tourney worthy team or not.

 

[97spiderfan]

We are getting about 70 minutes a game from new players so far this year. About a third of our minutes are going to guys who have never played for us before.

The Stetson game was a blow-out so lots of younger guys got more time than they are reasonably going to get in most competitive games. In the JMU game, we ran an 8 man rotation and 7 of those 8, have been in the program for longer than 2 years now. Jesse is the only true freshman getting playing time and he is the 8th man in that rotation.

 

[fan2011]

The Stetson game was a blow-out so lots of younger guys got more time than they are reasonably going to get in most competitive games. In the JMU game, we ran an 8 man rotation and 7 of those 8, have been in the program for longer than 2 years now. Jesse is the only true freshman getting playing time and he is the 8th man in that rotation.

True, only 25% of our minutes went to new payers in the JMU game. But that is still significant.

 

[Hanca]

M

I agree no excuse to lose to JMU. I find it surprising Mooney says he thought our D would be where our O has been the last two games. To me it's alarming because either we are not putting forth the effort, don't have the personnel to play the D, other teams have our D figured out, or are guys are not prepared enough by the coaches.

Yes it's early but we don't have time to figure it out if we are going to make a NCAA run. This is where NCAA resumes are made of. I'll reserve judgement till early December, but in less than a month we should know if we are a tourney worthy team or not.

Maybe UR should have more than one D?

 

[I-M-UR]

True, only 25% of our minutes went to new payers in the JMU game. But that is still significant.

Some of those minutes were because the seniors who should have more of the minutes have been unproductive. Plus lots of those minutes were practice for the bench.

 

[fan2011]

Some of those minutes were because the seniors who should have more of the minutes have been unproductive. Plus lots of those minutes were practice for the bench.

I think Wood and Fore are going to be getting close to 20 minutes a game each for the foreseeable future. JP will come in for 5-10 a game. Mooney plays the players he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and he has shown that that includes Fore and Wood getting significant minutes.

 

[8legs]

M

Maybe UR should have more than one D?

A college basketball team playing more than one Defense? Perhaps to confuse the opposition or make them adjust or stop their rally? BLASPHEMY!

 

[SouthJerseySpiderFan]

I just looked at Wake's lineup and frontline stands 6-10, 6-9 and 6-7 plus two frosh who played 10 minutes or so 1st couple games are 6-10 and 7-1. Two games means little stat wise but they are #22 in offensive rebounding in the country and were decent last year at #136. This year Wake stands at #78 defensive rebounding and were #22 for 2015.

So keeping them off the glass for 2nd chance points should be a concern but maybe more importantly UR getting points inside the paint could be difficult. So why can't we act instead of react to what the other team is doing? Looking at Wake's defensive TO% being so low they must big and slow so maybe start MW along with Fore, Pisto, whoever has a decent chance of making 3s and make them be worried about defending us.
\
If we're going to take the first open 3, have players who have a greater probability of making them. Every time I see DT or TD attempting a 3 I think of O Sylla open out deep and talking to the TV, "don't shoot it, don't shoot it!"

 

[I-M-UR]

I think Wood and Fore are going to be getting close to 20 minutes a game each for the foreseeable future. JP will come in for 5-10 a game. Mooney plays the players he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and he has shown that that includes Fore and Wood getting significant minutes.

Then he's not paying attention. He has had a tendency to stick with players too long. At this point the seniors are who they are with underclassmen their is hope for improvement this year and next.

 

[fan2011]

I just looked at Wake's lineup and frontline stands 6-10, 6-9 and 6-7 plus two frosh who played 10 minutes or so 1st couple games are 6-10 and 7-1. Two games means little stat wise but they are #22 in offensive rebounding in the country and were decent last year at #136. This year Wake stands at #78 defensive rebounding and were #22 for 2015.

So keeping them off the glass for 2nd chance points should be a concern but maybe more importantly UR getting points inside the paint could be difficult. So why can't we act instead of react to what the other team is doing? Looking at Wake's defensive TO% being so low they must big and slow so maybe start MW along with Fore, Pisto, whoever has a decent chance of making 3s and make them be worried about defending us.
\
If we're going to take the first open 3, have players who have a greater probability of making them. Every time I see DT or TD attempting a 3 I think of O Sylla open out deep and talking to the TV, "don't shoot it, don't shoot it!"

To be fair, we are #136 in offensive rebounding percentage right now, and that certainly won't last. When you play cupcakes your stats get skewed, this is as true for Wake as it is for us. Wake has the tools to be a good rebounding team, but are they truly a top 50 offensive rebounding team? Only time will tell.

Also, when they played their cupcake at home they only won by 5, we won by 20. Kenpom seems to think the cupcakes are comparable...

 

[SpiderK]

JMU stomped by WVU

 

[SpiderTrap]

We are a better all around team than Wake in every category except 1 - offensive rebounding. That is Wake's only chance to beat us - attack the glass and just throw shots up there to get the rebound. Otherwise - this is a game we should be favored to win and should win. If we give up 15 plus offensive rebounds to Wake, then it will come down to shooting. If we make enough 3's, we can still win, but I rather limit the offensive boards to 10-12 and not have to catch fire from deep to win.

 

[TD4Prez2004]

Not sure it will happen, but would love to see us double the post if the ball goes to Thomas (19.5ppg, 14.5rpg) or Mitoglou (12.5ppg, 11.5rpg) - serves the dual purpose of bringing another defender to the basket to rebound and (hopefully, cross-fingers, knock on wood) protecting TJ and others from foul trouble.

 

[fan2011]

According to Vegas we are only 2.5 point underdogs against Wake on their home court. Kenpom gives us a 29% chance to win. I think we can win this one.

Vegas moneyline is +125 for Richmond, corresponding to ~44% chance for Richmond to win. The gamblers seem to think we have a pretty good chance.

 

[Spideroldie]

+1 TD4Prez. Agree totally about double-teaming their two big scorers, down low, to avoid foul issues for TJ and also to get those offensive rebounds. Hope the coaches were reading your post, and that the players are totally on-board with that plan. It sounds like a "no-brainer," and a winning strategy to me! It will likely take two of our guys, in the lane, to pull down the RBs, and avoid them getting the easy put-backs. Hopefully, we have shown re-plays fo the JMU game and everybody knows how many times they missed getting in rebounding position. If we learn from it, we should be fine, but it we keep repeating the same stuff....

 

[WebSpinner]

of course we can win this one, just like we could have won the umwcah game but has nothing to do with numbers or stats

 

[Ulla1]

of course we can win this one, just like we could have won the umwcah game but has nothing to do with numbers or stats

Spinner, what is "umwcah"?

 

[urmite]

Spinner, what is "umwcah"?

Madison Women's College at Harrisonburg.

 

[urmite]

of course we can win this one, just like we could have won the umwcah game but has nothing to do with numbers or stats

Including final score?

 

[WebSpinner]

that is the one set of numbers which mean anything

 

[97spiderfan]

Wake's best player is out (McIntire-Miller) and 2 other players are suspended for violation of team rules. So, why do I feel that we are not going to come out on the winning end tonight. Just feel Wake is going to own us on the boards and are ongoing habit of losing close road games will continue. Hope I am wrong, but if I had to call my shot tonight, it would be Wake by 6.

 

[fan2011]

Wake's best player is out (McIntire-Miller) and 2 other players are suspended for violation of team rules. So, why do I feel that we are not going to come out on the winning end tonight. Just feel Wake is going to own us on the boards and are ongoing habit of losing close road games will continue. Hope I am wrong, but if I had to call my shot tonight, it would be Wake by 6.

Because most of the posters on this board have a tendency to be extremely negative and constantly underestimate our team's actual ability. Kenpom does predict we will lose by 6, so your gut feeling is pretty accurate. However, Vegas thinks it will be much closer and gives us ~44% chance to win.

 

[Ulla1]

UR has good players and they will gel tonight. Thus, begins our run to the NCAA tournament. Roll Spide! OSC

 

[MolivaManiac]

Line is down to Wake -1.

 

[KennyWood]

I think we win by 7 tonight. Defense and rebounding is still very much a concern and something to keep an eye on, but I'm still confident in this team this year, despite the JMU loss. Keep in mind we had a bunch of bad losses last season (including against JMU) and still almost made the tournament. JMU will finish Top 100; realistically, we will end up with worse losses and could still be on the bubble. This team has a lot of new pieces. I think we start to see them gel, just in time for Vegas.

 

[97spiderfan]

Because most of the posters on this board have a tendency to be extremely negative and constantly underestimate our team's actual ability. Kenpom does predict we will lose by 6, so your gut feeling is pretty accurate. However, Vegas thinks it will be much closer and gives us ~44% chance to win.

I see Wake's strength of being a good rebounding team being our weakness as a poor rebounding team and that is why I don't like our odds. Probably why Ken doesn't like us either in this game, although I realize Ken is a computer and incapable of rationale thought. His algorthim though probably tells him the same thing, that Wake is going crush us on the boards.

We can counteract that by making shots, like we did against Stetson.

 

[fan2011]

I see Wake's strength of being a good rebounding team being our weakness as a poor rebounding team and that is why I don't like our odds. Probably why Ken doesn't like us either in this game, although I realize Ken is a computer and incapable of rationale thought. His algorthim though probably tells him the same thing, that Wake is going crush us on the boards.

We can counteract that by making shots, like we did against Stetson.

The point you bring up is a very good one, and one of the main contentions I have with kenpom. His predictions only take offensive and defensive efficiency into account, and do not look at matchup statistics like the one you brought up. When a good offensive rebounding team plays a bad defensive rebounding team do they gain more of an advantage than just offensive and defensive efficiency would predict? Kenpom hasn't answered this question and doesn't factor things like this into his algorithm, but that doesn't stop his predictions from being top tier in terms of accuracy as his algorithms get more data to work with. I have often considered how to use matchups statistics to create better predictions, and I think machine learning algorithms are probably the way to go in this regard, but it is very difficult to do well. I could write a book on the difficulties and nuances of using statistics to predict sports outcomes, it is a very complicated, young, and not well researched field.

 

[spiders13]

I do wish I had a good feeling about tonight like some. The JMU game really clouded my complete preseason optimism with shades of pessimism. Sure hope I am wrong! go Spiders!!!

 

[97spiderfan]

There are so many nuances and unaccountable variances that occur in every game that this is probably an almost impossible task. It would be impossible to predict an injury, a poorly officiated game, technical fouls, coaching mistakes, mental errors made by players, etc... even if you could develop an algorithm that accounts for every meaningful statistic.

 

[97spiderfan]

And I think a big key will be the play of Deion. If he can give us the type of performance he gave us against Stetson (solid interior d, a couple blocked shots, 7 plus defensive rebounds and maybe 4-6 points), I think our odds are better. Thomas is going to be a tough match-up. Deion is the only one of our team that has the strength to guard Thomas and frankly Thomas is just a bigger dude than Deion, so he is going to be a tough match up for Deion. Thomas has the size and strength to push Terry and TJ around.