Normally I would say the injury to Evans on VCU might have an impact, but to be honest - he has been a major disappointment for them this year. He has dropped in just about every statistical category for them, and has been wildly inconsistent. VCU has made up for this with great bench play and the emergence of Santos-Silva.
Last game - VCU shot lights out (just about 50% overall and 50% from 3) - so I would not expect that to happen again. Biggest difference last time was the 2nd half, they made some adjustments with their ball screens and line-up in the 2nd half and we didn't. They pulled away and we could never get close. Not to mention - Bones had a career night.
With all that said - I think this game with or without Evans will be pretty even. One question I did have is I wonder if Mooney will at some point this season step away from the load management on Grant for certain games down the stretch. We just get little to nothing other than 5 fouls out of Grace and Sal - and I could see this as a game where maybe you press his minutes to 33-35 this game? And possibly some upcoming games down the stretch that are very important to the NCAA resume.