All things being equal, I don't think a kid is just going to choose the highest level. Because if I were a player, playing time would be a prime consideration. Am I going to go to a P5 and be the 7th, 8th guy off the bench or do I go to an A-10 school and be a starter and one of the focal points of the team? Most players wanna play.yes, if the offer's the same, then we're back to pre-NIL when all the offers were the same(just a scholarship). you typically chose the highest level, and within that the highest program. and I doubt we'll be outspending a P5.
I know this is not directly relatable but my son last year "moved" down a level in travel soccer. Previous team he was coming off the bench, current team he starts, plays loads of minutes. As a player he is much happier with his PT and role on his current team than he was on the prior.
Anyone who plays high level sports wants to be on the field as much as possible, we can offer that. Mooney just has to better with his talent evaluation than he was last year.