Team PPG and 3 point%, and PPG for players.

[VT4700]

Our last 3 seasons, we have averaged 75.3, 74.7, and 71.0 PPG. As our 3 point shooting dropped, our PPG did, as we went from .362, .357, to .329 from 3 those years. I am thinking we will improve our 3s this year to around 34-35% as a team. So, as a result, I will give us about 73 PPG. For this thread, what does everyone think our players will average PPG, and what will our team PPG and 3 pt% be?? Hard to predict now, but it's the off season, so why not take a shot at it? Safe to say Tyler will be our leading scorer, and then I have Quinn next. I have no idea who our 3rd leading scorer will be, and right now, I see 5 guys who could score about the same. I am including the 9 guys I think will see the most time early, so as of now, I don't have any PPG for the other 4 guys, but obviously this could change.

Tyler 19
Quinn 12
Roche 8
Bigelow 8
Grace 7
Goose 7
Nelson 7
Crabtree 3
Dji 2

* I think the 5 guys listed after Tyler and Quinn will all have multiple double digit games this year. They will also have lesser scoring games as others step up, and there could be times when minutes for them vary dramatically from game to game, so as a result I only have the 2 guys averaging double figures.

 

[spider23]

This all looks plausible. It does seem that we have some opportunity as a team to shoot better from 3. Add Roche. Bigelow has been good from 3 before, hoping last year dip was just more about re-adjusting following injury. If so, he could shoot mid to high 30's. Nelson is a wildcard here. I feel like he will be a good 3pt shooter, but that is more hope at this point.

Agree with Burton (obviously) and Quinn being double digit guys. Would love to see two more guys be consistent double digit scorers - one of Bigelow, Goose, Nelson, Roche. Could see Bigelow being up their with Quinn, he seems like he can score at all three levels.

 

[PASpider]

I think Roche will crack double digits.

 

[KE Spider]

Have lots of talent, but Coach has a challenging road before him. Not only has to knit together the team with three promising transfers and multiple returning promising players with limited experience, but also almost an entirely new coaching staff at the same time. Assume he will lean heavily on Burden, Matt, and Goose when he is in doubt based on his MO.

Tough task. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. 4700, as to season predictions not sure how this plays out...but hopeful.

 

[Spiders4ever]

Have lots of talent, but Coach has a challenging road before him. Not only has to knit together the team with three promising transfers and multiple returning promising players with limited experience, but also almost an entirely new coaching staff at the same time. Assume he will lean heavily on Burden, Matt, and Goose when he is in doubt based on his MO.

Tough task. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. 4700, as to season predictions not sure how this plays out...but hopeful.

The 3 you mention will start and all average over 30mpg.

 

[UR Fan 2]

I will take a crack at it....

Tyler 19.6
Quinn 9.8
Roche 9.7
Bigelow 8.7
Nelson 7.1
Grace 6.9
Goose 5.5
Crabtree 3.9
Dji 2.1
Noyes 1.9
Randolph 1.1

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

The 3 you mention will start and all average over 30mpg.

Goose will average over 30 minutes you say... How many points will he average in those 30 minutes do you think?

 

[VT4700]

Goose averaged over 30 minutes per game the last 21 games, averaging 5.4 PPG with 6 games of 9 or more points, and that was all as a 5th option on offense. He is so good defensively he needs to be on the floor a lot, and most likely will be on the floor a lot. And, it's not he can't score. He is more than capable offensively, and he has proven he can take the other team's top scorer out of the game, while at the same time not being a negative on offense.

 

[Spiders4ever]

Goose will average over 30 minutes you say... How many points will he average in those 30 minutes do you think?

9.4

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

9.4

Goose over 30 minutes says to me Roche under 10 minutes. I think you and VT are soul mates...

 

[VT4700]

Goose over 30 minutes says to me Roche under 10 minutes. I think you and VT are soul mates...

Why? They can and will be on the floor a lot together.

 

[Spiders4ever]

Goose over 30 minutes says to me Roche under 10 minutes. I think you and VT are soul mates...

Bless your little heart.

 

[MrTbone]

Why? They can and will be on the floor a lot together.

I’d be surprised if they’re on the floor together “a lot”. That would indicate that between Bigelow and Grace they aren’t getting heavy minutes collectively at forward, and that none of the other G/SF guys are getting much time.

Likely that one of the two lock down the 2G spot and the other may get relief minutes at SF. I don’t think they’ll be on the floor together a ton though.

 

[VT4700]

I was responding to the post saying 30 for Goose means 10 for Roche, meaning they won't play together. So, by a lot, I mean a lot more than 0, whether that's 10, 12, or 15 or more, who knows? But, certainly, they can play together for a good amount of minutes. If Roche is hitting 3s, and Goose is taking the other team's main scorer out of game, they both need to be out there. I seriously doubt the recruiting pitch to Roche was "you are a 2G and only a 2G, so you either beat out Goose, or back him up". I'm sure he and our staff saw a chance for solid minutes here. I wouldn't worry too much about the 2G spot being the only place they play. It's not like we wouldn't play 3 guards together out there. The days of having to have a 1,2,3,4, and 5 out there are long gone. Why wouldn't we want our best defender and our best three-point shooter playing together? If we give 40 minutes to Nelson and Dji backing Nelson up, 40 to Quinn and Grace, 10 more to Grace playing with Quinn, and 36 for Tyler that is 126 minutes. Even giving 10 to Crabtree, that still leaves 64 minutes for Goose, Roche, and Bigelow. This provides plenty of minutes where they could play together.

 

[Spiders4ever]

Coach sticks with seniors.

 

[MrTbone]

I was responding to the post saying 30 for Goose means 10 for Roche, meaning they won't play together. So, by a lot, I mean a lot more than 0, whether that's 10, 12, or 15 or more, who knows? But, certainly, they can play together for a good amount of minutes. If Roche is hitting 3s, and Goose is taking the other team's main scorer out of game, they both need to be out there. I seriously doubt the recruiting pitch to Roche was "you are a 2G and only a 2G, so you either beat out Goose, or back him up". I'm sure he and our staff saw a chance for solid minutes here. I wouldn't worry too much about the 2G spot being the only place they play. It's not like we wouldn't play 3 guards together out there. The days of having to have a 1,2,3,4, and 5 out there are long gone. Why wouldn't we want our best defender and our best three-point shooter playing together? If we give 40 minutes to Nelson and Dji backing Nelson up, 40 to Quinn and Grace, 10 more to Grace playing with Quinn, and 36 for Tyler that is 126 minutes. Even giving 10 to Crabtree, that still leaves 64 minutes for Goose, Roche, and Bigelow. This provides plenty of minutes where they could play together.

I don’t think three guys split those minutes and that we go smaller, I think CM learned we couldn’t get away with that playing Buck or Nick as a forward. I think Bigelow has a bigger role, so not quite as many minutes to go between goose and roche, and not at ton at the same time.

Just my guess.

 

[gospidersgo]

Offensively Goose was usually the 5th best option on the floor last year. Thinking ahead to this coming season, I'm not so sure that changes much this year. For example, picturing a lineup with Burton, Quinn, Bigelow, Nelson and him - he may still be the last guy we often look to offensively.

I love his defense though. I'm pretty sure his experience and quality defense (along with Mooney's tendency to stick with someone in this situation) means he will see serious minutes (guessing 25-27 range). My best guess is his scoring improves slightly (he's been a consistent 4-5 ppg scorer his entire career) to about 7 ppg this year.

 

[VT4700]

I don’t think three guys split those minutes and that we go smaller, I think CM learned we couldn’t get away with that playing Buck or Nick as a forward. I think Bigelow has a bigger role, so not quite as many minutes to go between goose and roche, and not at ton at the same time.

Just my guess.

Well, Roche is 6'5 and Goose is 6'4, so if they play with Nelson, I guess I am just not sure why that is such a small lineup to you. We will likely play against 3 guard lineups with multiple guys smaller than these two. I think we will see all kinds of different lineups out there, these two together just being one of many. And, I'm not saying it will be every game guaranteed where they play 10+ minutes together, but as I said earlier, if Roche is hitting 3s and Goose is stopping a key scorer defensively, they both need to be out there.

 

[MrTbone]

I’m not saying they’re tiny, just we saw generally poor results when we were trotting out the four guard lineup in the buckingham/Sherod early years. I think the team is a better team when we have a couple taller players in those traditional forward spots. I know that’s not your desired lineup but we’ve been better with three 6’7”+ guys on the floor typically.

of course everything is situational, my guess though is that we won’t see a ton of those two guys side by side unless roche is markedly better than Bigelow in his +\-.

 

[VT4700]

You are forgetting about our 24-7 year. Jacob, at 5'8 averaged 36.6 minutes a game, Blake, at 6'0 averaged 32.7, and Nick, at 6'4 averaged 29.5. Safe to say those 3 were all on the floor together A LOT.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

Why? They can and will be on the floor a lot together.

I don't see that at all

 

[GKiller]

I agree u want to have your best 3 shooter & best defender playing together a decent amount. The latter is goose & if Roche is the former & playing well you’ll see it. Goose gives u a lot of versatility guarding multiple positions. Which allows him to play in many more varied lineups. Those 2 will occasionally even be the backcourt when goose slides over to the 1.

remember our O will be a little different. More true 4 out. We didn’t do that w Cayo he was a back to basket low post.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

You are forgetting about our 24-7 year. Jacob, at 5'8 averaged 36.6 minutes a game, Blake, at 6'0 averaged 32.7, and Nick, at 6'4 averaged 29.5. Safe to say those 3 were all on the floor together A LOT.

Assuming Nelson is Gilly and Roche is Sherrod in this scenario? So Goose is Blake then??? Or are you stating Goose is going to get time at point? Please clarify?? I don't really see too much time for Goose at point. Dji seems a good defender and point guard so I don't really see Goose there much.

 

[VT4700]

To clarify, it is not uncommon for us to play 3 guards together.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

Assuming Nelson is Gilly and Roche is Sherrod in this scenario? So Goose is Blake then??? Or are you stating Goose is going to get time at point? Please clarify?? I don't really see too much time for Goose at point. Dji seems a good defender and point guard so I don't really see Goose there much.

I think Roche will play 20 plus minutes and be a top 2 or 3 scorer on this team.

 

[LongTimeSpiderFan]

To clarify, it is not uncommon for us to play 3 guards together.

I hope Goose has a better offensive game than we've seen but he seems the fifth best offensive option on the floor again to me as well.
I think Bigelow, Grace, Burton and Quinn get the vast majority of minutes at the 3, 4, 5 with a sprinkling of our freshman filling in the gaps. Dji and Nelson at the point...MAYBE a little Goose there... But then we need a shooter which seems to me Roche getting 20 plus minutes there. No way in hell Goose gets 30. This isn't mathematics but that's almost illogical!!

 

[Eight Legger]

Burton 17.5
Roche 12
Bigelow 9
Quinn 8.5
Goose 6.5
Nelson 6
Grace 6
Bailey 4
Crabtree 4
Others 2

 

[CarolinaSpider]

I think lineup will be dictated as much by offensive as defensive needs. Example: when Mooney started breaking from the matchup zone to 1v1, he also started working with full court pressure vs half court. We saw him go to a smaller, quicker team with full court to change the rhythm of the game and get us some easier baskets and speed up play. My hope is that we see smaller lineups at times to change the game flow and work to our advantage. We also may need to use smaller lineups to help us move the ball better against teams pressuring us. It has been a long time since we have worried about getting the ball up court due to the presence of Gilly.

 

[spiderman]

to me it comes down to how much time Bigelow earns. we know Burton will eat up as many minutes as possible at one forward spot. if Bigelow is playing big minutes, then there aren't many minutes left for Roche to play along side Goose.

if Bigelow plays less, then there's more time available for a smaller forward.

 

[spider23]

Basically you have 120 minutes at SG and two forward positions. Put Burton down for 35 minutes. Grace averaged 15 minutes last year. Will be interesting to see if Mooney load manages Quinn in the same way as Grant - Grant played 27 minutes/game. Grace may get like 10 min/game at back up C, and then another 10 at PF?

I am guessing Goose gets his 30 min/game - as he did late in the season. That would leave 45 minutes split between Bigelow and Roche. And Goose could play less than 30, and Grace less than 10 at PF.

I feel like Bigelow is so versatile that he is going to be a 30 minute/game guy.

 

[MountainSpider]

I see Nelson, Goose, Roche, Bigelow, Burton, and Quinn as our best 6 players. They will all get 20+ minutes a game, and no one else will. Grace will obviously get significant time as well.

That is 7 players, and Mooney doesn't have to play anyone else significant minutes once we hit the meat of our schedule if he doesn't want to and we stay healthy. Fortunately, we also have a couple other talented guys ready to step up for injuries or if Mooney wants to play a longer bench.