Roster Next Year

[spider23]

PG - Gilly, Wilson, Francis
SG - Francis, Gustavson/Crabtree
SF - Nick, Burton, Gus/Crabtree
PF - Cayo, Burton, Sal
C- Golden, Grace, Weir

Will be very interesting to see how Mooney manages things next year. Yes, lost 10 minutes/game from Woj leaving, but that is not really alleviating things with Crabtree coming in, and Burton needing more minutes.

Mooney has already touted Burton as having potential to be an all time great - which would have him borderline NBA prospect (think Newman, Blair - 2nd round pick, Harp - logged some solid NBA,etc). If Moon is correct (and I think he may be) he will need a lot more minutes this year. Watching Crabtree's highlights as a good D1 starter already, he will want big minutes.

I think how Mooney manages this will be a big factor for our chemistry next year. How do you guys see this playing out. I know, I know, best man plays, etc. I am guessing Woj thought this past year that if he jacked as many shots as Francis, he could have easily scored 15-17 ppg too. I think Francis was better, but bet Woj thought he could have made that jump soph year.

 

[Spider2020]

My best guess is we see Cayo and Burton get more of a 50/50 split at the 4. Grants minutes probably stay the same, with Weir taking over for one of Sal/Matt. Jacob, Blake, Gus, and Nick all see their minutes come down a little bit with the addition of Crabtree (taking most of these additional minutes) and Wilson (taking ~5 a game).

 

[SFspidur]

Really curious to see what we get out of Crabtree...obviously worked himself into the starting lineup as a frosh, but Tulane was absolutely terrible that year.

Doesn't seem like a big rebounder/inside guy, so the 3 definitely seems like the spot for him, while Burton can be more of a 4. But with the newly available minutes coming from Woj primarily at the 2, both those guys may need to occasionally slide down a spot, although not sure Crabtree necessarily has the handling skills at his height to be a primary guy bringing the ball up.

I don't even really love sliding Sherod down to the 2 to try to do that. Blake and Jacob obviously will own those roles, and I'm pretty comfortable with Goose helping out for short spells. Not sure how quickly Wilson can work his way into things.

 

[urmite]

Really curious to see what we get out of Crabtree...obviously worked himself into the starting lineup as a frosh, but Tulane was absolutely terrible that year.

Doesn't seem like a big rebounder/inside guy, so the 3 definitely seems like the spot for him, while Burton can be more of a 4. But with the newly available minutes coming from Woj primarily at the 2, both those guys may need to occasionally slide down a spot, although not sure Crabtree necessarily has the handling skills at his height to be a primary guy bringing the ball up.

I don't even really love sliding Sherod down to the 2 to try to do that. Blake and Jacob obviously will own those roles, and I'm pretty comfortable with Goose helping out for short spells. Not sure how quickly Wilson can work his way into things.

I still say, I found it interesting that when Jacob was out, it seemed more important to Mooney to have Goose in, than Blake in...

 

[ur-2005]

Ok so if we do this mathematically there are 5 guys on the floor at all time and 40 mins in a game we have 200 total available mins.

Last years averages went like this(this is a little inflated because of the injury to Francis)
Blake Francis G-32.7
Grant Golden F-26
Nick Sherod G-30
Jacob Gilyard G-37
Nathan Cayo F-26
Tyler Burton F-14.1
Andre Gustavson G-19.4
Jake Wojcik G-11.7
Souleymane Koureissi F-7.1
Matt Grace F-7.8

With Woj gone that opens about 12 mins for other players. I am going to go player by player and give what I think their mins might be next season.

Blake- I expect his mins to decrease slightly with the addition of Crabtree and Wilson.

Golden- His mins should stay around the same as I see weir cutting into sal/grace time and not goldens.

Nick-This is an interesting case as you have burton and crabtree who both are going to see a good amount of time yet nick can be so crucial to the team on the offensive end. I can see his numbers having a lot of variance between games with his high minute games being when he is hot such as the VCU game but when he isn't shooting the ball well I could see burton and crabtree really eating into those numbers to provide a more viable defense.

Gilly-Mins may decrease a little with Wilson but Gilly is what makes this team go and without him, in the game, the team is at a significant disadvantage on both ends of the court. I do think his minutes in less close games will go down a lot as Wilson needs valuable time and he can get this in blowout games.

Cayo- a very valuable player to this team but I can see his minutes going down a lot due to crabtree and burton but Cayo should still be the number 1 option at the 4.

Burton- Minutes should go up a lot. He is the future of this team and we need to get him as much experience as we can as he is going to be a leader of the team once the wave of juniors is gone

Goose- this is interesting as he would gain mins with woj gone but with crabtree and Wilson in his could decrease a little but not much. He is still almost always in when we go with a small defensive lineup and is a great option when playing against a team with a star player as he is our best on-ball defender.

Sal- mins should go down slightly with weir coming in

Grace- same thing goes for Grace

Wilson-This kid looks good and will most likely be gillys replacement. We need to get him as much time as possible as he will probably be starting his sophomore year in replacement of gilly

Weir- Honestly I really have no idea how good he could be. He could end up sitting the bench or be a good role grabbing board when golden is out.

We need to get the younger guys as much time as possible to prepare for the massive loss of players we will have next year.

 

[Eight Legger]

The seniors are going to play as much as they did this year, more or less. This could be the best team in school history – who cares about getting freshmen experience when we have aspirations of league championships and Sweet 16s or beyond? No offense to those guys, I like what I've seen of them, but they're not going to be playing much at all next year unless something bad happens.

The only guy whose minutes are going to increase in a meaningful way is Burton, because he's earned them. I don't expect Crabtree to play a lot more than Wojcik did, even though he's better. Maybe he takes a few combined minutes from Sherod and Grace/Sal if we go smaller for a little while, but that's about it. He's still got two more years, no need to force him into the lineup for 25 minutes a game next year.

 

[VT4700]

I would try to keep Grant's minutes about the same, since it worked out so well last year. So, if he has 26, that leaves 14 for Grace, Sal, and Weir. I would love for Sal to redshirt, but if not, he will be one of three guys backing up Grant. We could also go small for a few minutes and have none of the three guys on the floor when Grant is out depending on match ups. Maybe speed up the game when we do this, and press on defense, and go quicker on offense since we won't have Grant or the normal big reserves in as part of our normal offense.

Then, I would make sure at least two of Jacob, Blake, Andre, and Wilson are always on the floor. I see Jacob and Blake getting about 37 and 33 minutes, with Wilson maybe getting 5. I say 5 because I have no idea at this point how to make a good estimate here. He could be really good and still not get much time because of who is ahead of him.

That leaves 85 minutes for Nick, Nate, Crabtree, Burton, and Andre. This could depend on matchups, how the game is going, and how these guys are playing. If we go small for 5 minutes a game, this would give them 90 minutes (18 per) to split. Your guess is as good as mine here because all of these guys are worthy of 25+ minutes. We will likely have nights where one or two of these guys will see close to 30 minutes, and other nights where they same guys who just got 30 will get less than 20 the next game.

Our team chemistry was outstanding last year, and it important to keep it good this year. These guys need to keep being all about the team and great things will happen.

 

[spider23]

I will say, the move to load manage Grant has been good. I'll give Mooney props on that one. I would expect more of the same.

Gilly/Francis - not expecting any reduction here in minutes. Look at Kevin Anderson and Gonzo's minutes - 35-36 min/pg last two years they played - SDJ same thing. I would like to see him rest Gilly a little more when we have a big lead - but he will not do it. With greatest class ever, should have some good leads this year - let Wilson/Gus run the point in those cases.

2020 - Interesting about Cayo / Burton splitting PF minutes (power forward, not #FreePaul). Makes sense, but again think Cayo is so established now, hard to see moon sitting him unless foul trouble.

 

[PhillySpider]

I do see some dip in Jacob's minutes and maybe Blakes as well. I think we handle a few more teams next year meaning less urgency to have them in all the time etc. Also CM has to see that the effect on Grant of reduced minutes was really noticeable - - - not so much in individual games, but in his energy level at the end of the season versus prior years. I think his improved defense was also in part due to reduced load (both less tired and less prone to be in foul trouble). Likewise, this team has and will continue to earn some trust from the coach (not his strong suit historically). That means more opportunity for more guys in general with some tighter rotations in "big" games. To me that means jacob drops down to more like 34 minutes and Blake down to more like 30.

I agree Burton seems likely to command more minutes next year. He has to deliver on that by actually playing to a level that his play demands those minutes. If he does, the guy who's minutes I see most at risk are Nick's. He offers the least of any of the starters in terms of overall game and as someone else said, I see his playing time running a little hot and cold along side his shooting from game to game. I actually would bring him off the bench next year (although there is no chance the coach does that). I think he'd be more effective running against back-ups (where for example that post and back down thing he likes to do would come against a lesser player) and his shooting adding some explosiveness (instant offense a la Vinnie Johnson or today's Lou Williams) to the team. We have never had a real good offensive spark off the bench and next years depth might offer us the opportunity. I am not as sold on Crabtree yet. What little film I have seen on him (all from highlight films) doesn't leave me as bullish. Not sure he even ends up getting Woj's minutes and really not sure how its more than that!.

So that means I slide Jake's minutes to Crabtree, Burton eats up a few from from Cayo and a few more from Sherod which pushes him to low 20's, Wilson (maybe) gets 5 from Jake and Blake cutting back. And there you have it. And if somebody is commanding more minutes with their play (Burton??), I see Crabtree and Sherod (and maybe a few minutes without a 5 man) being the source for more.

 

[Eight Legger]

Nick was 10th in the country in 3-point percentage this year and 82nd in the nation (among 4,589 scholarship players) in three-pointers made. He'll start and play as much as he can. It's tempting to say yank him if he's cold early or something, but he's a shooter, and shooters shoot their way out of that more often than not.

 

[SpiderK]

Nick was 10th in the country in 3-point percentage this year and 82nd in the nation (among 4,589 scholarship players) in three-pointers made. He'll start and play as much as he can. It's tempting to say yank him if he's cold early or something, but he's a shooter, and shooters shoot their way out of that more often than not.

Nick is an elite spot up shooter. He improved this year as a scorer by getting to the basket and free throw line. Nick is also a solid rebounder for 6’4” and no ability to jump. He is a big kid that holds his ground and boxes out pretty well. He needs to protect the ball a little better and gain some quickness on defense, but overall he is fun to watch. Other coaches have to be very aware of his ability, freeing up the inside and spreading the opponent’s defense for his teammates.

 

[spider23]

Philly, what do you see from Crabtree's highlights that concerns you. I see a nice 3 point stroke (2 nice games vs WICHITA STATE), and a guy that cuts nice back door and dunks, only guys on the roster that can make those finishes are Burton and Cayo. Did you watch some full game tape - though you mention not being sold on the highlights. Highlights only show errr highlights, not showing him getting burned on D. Not challenging b/c you have had some very good observations on here, just wondering if something you picked up on since he did play vs some good comp (Florida State, Wichita 2x, Cincy, SMU was good, etc) and pretty good looking as a true freshman. If he can't play I guess that alleviates some of our chemistry/minutes concern.

 

[PhillySpider]

Don't think I said anything about Crabtree concerning me. I have seen highlights and one full game tape (that I worked through pretty quickly). But nothing I saw that specifically worries me. But I am not prone to awarding minutes to anyone off highlight tape. I think on this site we are awfully quick to assume minutes going somewhere based on highlight reels. Its usually freshman, but we have said lots of good things about guys who it turned out couldn't play based on highlights! One thing that worries me (but its not specific to Crabtree) is what I will call the "Michael Carter-Williams effect". As a Sixers rookie, on a terrible team, he piled up stats and numbers and was rookie of the year. That was the high water mark of his career. On a good team he has barely been in the rotation. So Crabtree's numbers don't do much for me and as I said I don't put much stock in highlight reels because everybody should have 2 minutes of good stuff over a season etc. Lastly, our coach has shown that he values guys who really know the system and on a deep team, a guy who hasn't actually played in it yet won't get a lot of opportunities if he struggles early. So I can't project him for many minutes. But its not any specific problem with his game. I don't know his game - - - - and neither does anyone else on here really I think its safe to say. Given we have 7 solid guys (and two other less solid but improving bigs) earning minutes, i think minutes for Crabtree may be hard to come by!!

 

[spider23]

I do agree that Mooney will value the guys with experience in the system. Will be very interesting to see how Crabtree is used vs. Gus. Similar size and athleticism, Guessing goose is a little better on D and Crabtree on O.

 

[GKiller]

If Mooney would stop saying things like "We fully expect everyone to be back and the team to be intact" I'd feel better. I knew we were losing someone after that. Every year he says that & boom it's the KOD - the kiss of death.