The committee does not care where our website has us, and they certainly don't give out bids based on overall winning percentage. We were 5-1 IC, and without our leading scorer just lost our 2 toughest IC games out of the 18 we will play, so we are now 5-3. Yet, somehow this means either we stink or our coach stinks? Our win @ Rhode Island is one of the best wins by any team in our conference, and we still have a lot of basketball left. We should at least wait and see where we stand going into the VCU game before piling on the criticism.
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The committee does not care where our website has us, and they certainly don't give out bids based on overall winning percentage. We were 5-1 IC, and without our leading scorer just lost our 2 toughest IC games out of the 18 we will play, so we are now 5-3. Yet, somehow this means either we stink or our coach stinks? Our win @ Rhode Island is one of the best wins by any team in our conference, and we still have a lot of basketball left. We should at least wait and see where we stand going into the VCU game before piling on the criticism.
I agree - we have a lot of basketball left. We don't need to worry about winning out - we just need to win out till the VCU game. That would be the first game I think Francis has a realistic shot of playing. I am still not expecting him to play that game but we can't lose between now and then. And of course - we need VCU to win their games as well, to make that a big win for the Spiders when they come to the Robins Center.
Well said, but it still might be too early to wave the white flag if we lose one of the next 3. Bubble teams keep losing, and who knows what the bubble will look like at the end? No question a loss before VCU would be a bad one and would not look good on the resume, but playing the what if game, we could still get to 14-4. Even if we get to 13-5, if we can finish 2nd or 3rd and get the win over VCU, that might put us in position to grab a bid if we can get another big win in the A-10 semis.
Here is what our resume would look like if that happens, and we lose the A-10 final:
25-9 overall
13-5 IC with a 2nd or 3rd place finish.
Wins over Wisconsin, VCU, Rhode Island, and A-10 semi win.
I think we need to finish at least 8-2 and have one of the wins over VCU. Finishing 7-3 would likely put us in the 4th or 5th spot, and if we win our 1st round game, would have to beat Dayton in the semis to even have a chance for a bid.
Our 2009-2010 at large team went 11-4 OOC, and started A-10 play 3-2 with losses to St. Louis and Charlotte, leaving us at 14-6. I'm sure there was not a lot of positive talk after the 12 point home loss to Charlotte. But, we then won 3 in row going into a huge home game against Temple. We won that, and won a lot more, finishing the regular season 10-1 after the loss to Charlotte and going 13-3 IC and 24-7 overall before losing in the conference final.
So, let's follow the script, and win 3 in a row going into VCU, win that one, and keep rolling. A lot of basketball left.
So, let's follow the script, and win 3 in a row going into VCU, win that one, and keep rolling. A lot of basketball left.
I agree there is a lot more to be played and while we only have a few chances to move up, we have many chances to hold our place and let those around us fall.
I agree just keep winning, and maximize the rest of the games until Selection Sunday. There are way too many variables to rule out an at-large.
Not sure I see the connection to 2009-2010...
Effectively (using Kenpom) we were 3-1 against Quad 1, 1-3 against Quad 2 before losing a Quad 3 game to Charlotte.
Rest of the regular season we went 3-1 against Quad 1, 3-0 against Quad 2. Then 1-1 vs Quad 1 in A-10 Tourney.
I doubt we will go 7-3 vs Quad 1, 4-3 vs Quad 2, with a Quad 3 loss this season.
Doubt we will be a NCAA 7 seed either...but 11 or 12 is fine...
Yeah, I had to laugh yesterday because Burton on 950 was talking about how we play a bunch of Q3 and Q4 teams the rest of the way. I guess that's bad from a "let's get a big win" angle, but it should help us rack up wins. As long as we don't have any bad losses, who cares? That's usually VCU's top argument every year – "We have no bad losses!" Who did you beat? "Eh, well, uhh..umm."
Yes, we don't need many more big wins, we need our best ranked opponents to stay where they are.
As for VCU, Let them win and become a better opponent to help us, but let their best opponents lose to put holes in their resume.
I think finishing in the top 3 of this league this year automatically forces the committee to take a hard look at you. It's a good league and deserving of at least 3 bids. The ACC is also way down, so there might even be some unexpectedly available bids. If we can do what we need to in order to finish top 3, I am optimistic. Just win.
The Wisconsin win is not a good win, they are 12-9, 5-5 in the Big Ten. It wasn't at their place--it was a neutral court. They aren't an NCAA team currently. If you look at teams that are considered in the bracket we do not have a good record against them.
I'll give you Rhody as a good win, oversight on my part.
Most meaningful remaining games among the A10 contenders.
I know,all remaining games are most meaningful.
URI(7-1)
——-
VCU
@Dayton
St Louis
Dayton
VCU(6-2)
———
@URI
@UR
Dayton
@St Louis
Duquesne
Bonnies(5-3)
————
@Duquesne
UR
Duquesne
@St Louis
SLU(5-3)
————
Duquesne
@Dayton
VCU
@URI
UR(5-3)
————
VCU
@Bonnies
@Duquesne
Duquesne(5-3)
————
@St Louis
Bonnies
@Dayton
@Bonnies
@VCU
UR
I know,all remaining games are most meaningful.
URI(7-1)
——-
VCU
@Dayton
St Louis
Dayton
VCU(6-2)
———
@URI
@UR
Dayton
@St Louis
Duquesne
Bonnies(5-3)
————
@Duquesne
UR
Duquesne
@St Louis
SLU(5-3)
————
Duquesne
@Dayton
VCU
@URI
UR(5-3)
————
VCU
@Bonnies
@Duquesne
Duquesne(5-3)
————
@St Louis
Bonnies
@Dayton
@Bonnies
@VCU
UR
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I was simply replying to your point of us being 4th IC. We could also be accurately described as 7th, and are officially 6th. Just didn’t think saying we’re 4th gave the full picture.
For the record, I think we still have a shot at the NCAA’s. I just think our margin of error is slim to none.
Issue with what you say is getting to the A10 semis. When is the last time Mooney has advanced out of the quarterfinal round? I think it’s been a long time. He doesn’t have a track record of success @ the A10 tourney post 2011.
I agree winning our first round tourney game won't be easy. Obviously, if we do, winning the semi-final game won't be easy. Just like beating VCU at home in a couple weeks won't be easy. Or, going 8 - 2 or 9-1 down the stretch won't be easy. Shoot, getting an at-large as a mid-major is just not easy. But, it can be done, and we just need to win enough to do it.
Our schedule this season is not at all comparable to our schedule in 2009-2010.
We had more Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins that year than we will even have Q1 and Q2 games this season.
We had more Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins that year than we will even have Q1 and Q2 games this season.
Yep. Mooney sucks in the A-10 tourney. Since Kevin Anderson left it has been nothing but quick outs for him. Playing a short bench and your starting PG 40 minutes per game, doesn't play well in the back to back play of the conference tournament.
Plus, its cutting into Moon's vacation time.
I was just pointing out how the previous at-large team went 11-4 OOC and was limping around at 3-2 IC before they got hot. Let's get hot. That was my point.
I know this is the narrative.
But to be honest I think the only time we lost to someone with a worse Kenpom than us in all of Mooney's years is when they shot 11 FTs in the last 4.7 seconds...
How on earth do you put any stock in that gibberish. We loss worse than the score to Dayton and punked by VCU in second half..... with the same number of top 28 players
Believe me I wish that top 28 was worth something because it make Mooney looks bad but it really doesn’t mean much
According to team rankings they have us at a 16% chance of getting in March madness
We aren't basing the fact that our coach stinks on the past two games... we are basing the fact that our coach stinks because of the performance of the past 9 years. Duhh
I can count on one hand the number of games we have won against teams ranked above us. Mooney teams just do not win big games... its that simple. Good coaches know his system, he is so predictable, he coaches soft, and is like a deer in headlights in big spots. Basically he ... (fill in the blank)
How u value those rankings is up to you. Just pointing out others outside here do value our talent highly. Should we be getting punked by 20 at home by UD and losing by 20 to VCU with our players? Of course not, it's poor coaching, poor strategy, poor motivation imo by Mooney.
Also fwiw the offense v defense distinction was never raised so that's an assumption sman. I grant you the A10 rankings were very likely tilted that way but the methodology unknown as far as I know. And with Mooney "best class ever" there was no way he was referring to it solely that way only, makes no sense at all. He certainly said nothing along those lines.
& we do have many plus defenders. The program is pushing Gilyard as one of the best defenders in country, and Goose is already our best defender, and Mooney says thinks Goose on way to being one of best in country. Gosh we have two elite guys per UR bball already. Burton is a great defender, and one reason he should be playing more. Cayo and Francis are above average. We are improved and we have enough to make up for deficiencies with a couple key guys. Takes coaching. But there is defensive talent too.
Certainly enough there to finish 2nd in A10, and certainly enough not to have the results we just had in the two biggest games of year to date.
While there’s merit to waiting and seeing, I think the consideration is to look longitudinally at this. It’s perhaps not enough for him to have a measure of success against the middling and bottom Competition we play each year, but significant that we rarely if ever beat the top end competition.
I’m not a hardened mooney basher and am not attempting to dredge that up yet again, I just thought Phillys take was interesting and posed a question about whether our issue is really coaching or talent (or both).
My opinion all year has been that UR has to finish in the top 3 and now the chance has narrowed to 2nd or 3rd. This alone is going to mean nothing to the committee because quality wins are lacking (subject to opinion I suppose however the NET rating will not be where folks thought it might be based on the initial rankings....) and there is no doubt that the IC schedule for the Spiders is easier than the other potential top 4 finishers. I agree with Philly that to be considered for an at-large, a trip to the A10 finals will be required. Even then, an at-large bid may come down to who the Spiders beat to get to the final and the margin. So the Spiders should just win the A10 tournament, there will be much celebration, CM will get a big bonus, and the board unpleasantness will cease.
Fair question to ask the previous 2 seasons, but we are 5-3 IC and 15-6 overall with big wins over Wisconsin and Rhode Island that have put us in the at large mix. And, the question was asked after we lost our 2 toughest conference games without our leading scorer. That's why I think he should have included my choice C this year. But, I agree we need to win more big games, and we still have a chance to do that this year.
Sure, and to be clear, I’m looking at it over more than the last two years. We’ve had spot success here and there with wins against decent competition but very little success at the top end. It points to a pretty significant deficiency over a long span and I think that’s the concern, not the microcosm of where we are this season (which is probably still reflective of an inability to beat top competition).
our defensive talent and effort is improved. but when I watch VCU and Dayton, I see an obvious defensive talent difference. not just results or scheme. Burton helps there but not when he's playing 7 minutes. Wilson will come in with a defensive reputation too, so we're heading in the right direction there.
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