ADVERTISEMENT

Prediction for A10

UR80sfan

UR80sfan

Star
Jan 28, 2018
1,432
2,473
113
Our team continues to get better. We did better than expected by this forum in 6 of the last 7 games. Our Kenpom ranking has increase to 181, but I think we are closer to 110 today and improving. By season end we will be playing like a top 100 team.

I predict we will start off 3 and 5 in conference play and finish at 10 and 8 if we do not have any major injuries. We should be peaking heading into the A 10 tournament.
 
We did worse than what many on this forum predicted according to the forum that had the OOC prediction poll. We finished below .500 in a schedule many thought going worse than 10-3 would be bad.

I expect something similar in A10 play this year even though the league is in one of its worst down years (likely only 1 bid this year). I correctly predicted that we would win 6 games in non conference (tooting my own horn I know) and I’m going to say we finish A10 regular season at 7-11. And then I think we win only our first game in the A10 tournament to put our total record at 14-19.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PASpider and Eight Legger
What metrics are you using to arrive at the 110 figure? We have six wins and only two of them are against teams rated better than 220. We're playing better than we were the first game of the year, but so is every other team. We will have eight games in the A10 against teams rated higher than anyone we have played so far.

The are several other awful teams in the league, so we will win some games, but probably no more than eight.

I wish one year we would actually be peaking going into the A10 tourney and then make something of it, but the only times we've ever made it to the finals under Mooney, we had great years throughout -- it wasn't a matter of peaking. Every other year we have flamed out in the tourney.
 
Last edited:
That’s called the eye test metric EL. It’s well known to have zero bias. 1 semi made in 7 years in A10 tourney. That loss was to VCU btw. Who Mooney has never beaten in A10 tourney. So if we’re peaking again going into A10 tourney we have a lot to look forward to.

I agree we’ve looked much better the last 2 games. I dispute better than expected 6 of 7. When u give up a 23-6 run to end the game to a rival at home I have no idea how anything from that game is a positive. Sad how far we’ve fallen if we get any cred for that result.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Eight Legger
UR80sfan said:
Our team continues to get better. We did better than expected by this forum in 6 of the last 7 games. Our Kenpom ranking has increase to 181, but I think we are closer to 110 today and improving. By season end we will be playing like a top 100 team.

I predict we will start off 3 and 5 in conference play and finish at 10 and 8 if we do not have any major injuries. We should be peaking heading into the A 10 tournament.
Click to expand...

So you're saying 16-15 yet again? Seems like every other mooney year we end 16-15. So even with your optimism, where is the improvement??
 
UR80sfan said:
Our team continues to get better. We did better than expected by this forum in 6 of the last 7 games. Our Kenpom ranking has increase to 181, but I think we are closer to 110 today and improving. By season end we will be playing like a top 100 team.

I predict we will start off 3 and 5 in conference play and finish at 10 and 8 if we do not have any major injuries. We should be peaking heading into the A 10 tournament.
Click to expand...
Better than what?
 
Kenpom’s ranking is an average ranking based on how a team has done so far this season (ours is currently 181). It is not an accurate measurement of how good a team is currently that has improved relative to other teams. We started the season 2 and 4 over our first 6 games (probably playing around a 300 Kenpom ranking) and are 4 and 3 over our last 7 games ( guessing 110). We are playing much better the last 7 games than we did our first 8 games.

Kenpom predicts we will be 8 and 10 in the A10 conference based on a 181 Kempon ranking. I am predicting we will win two more conference game due to how much our team has improved.
 
Last edited:
UR80sfan said:
We started the season 2 and 6 over our first 8 games (probably playing around a 300 Kenpom ranking) and are 4 and 3 over our last 7 games ( guessing 110). We are playing much better the last 7 games than we did our first 8 games.
Click to expand...

We haven't played 15 games.
Our last 7 games included the two worst teams we've played this season, one of whom we lost to. At home.
 
UR80sfan said:
Kenpom’s ranking is an average ranking based on how a team has done so far this season (ours is currently 181). It is not an accurate measurement of how good a team is currently that has improved relative to other teams. We started the season 2 and 4 over our first 6 games (probably playing around a 300 Kenpom ranking) and are 4 and 3 over our last 7 games ( guessing 110). We are playing much better the last 7 games than we did our first 8 games.

Kenpom predicts we will be 8 and 10 in the A10 conference based on a 181 Kempon ranking. I am predicting we will win two more conference game due to how much our team has improved.
Click to expand...
I don’t think KenPom weighs every game the same. Recency is a factor, whether it is weighted properly is debatable.
 
Last edited:
Eight Legger said:
What metrics are you using to arrive at the 110 figure? We have six wins and only two of them are against teams rated better than 220. We're playing better than we were the first game of the year, but so is every other team. We will have eight games in the A10 against teams rated higher than anyone we have played so far.

The are several other awful teams in the league, so we will win some games, but probably no more than eight.

I wish one year we would actually be peaking going into the A10 tourney and then make something of it, but the only times we've ever made it to the finals under Mooney, we had great years throughout -- it wasn't a matter of peaking. Every other year we have flamed out in the tourney.
Click to expand...
Our next game maybe be a good measure of improvement...
 
  • Like
Reactions: gospidersgo
I think there is virtually zero merit in evaluating our Kenpom rating, net rating or the ur80sfan rating (I’m trademarking that btw). We are 6-7 with no at large chance and trending towards probably being a middling a10 finisher.

I continue to care mostly about seeing our bench development and figuring out if we can trot out any kind of defense that can prevent layup lines.
 
MrTbone said:
I think there is virtually zero merit in evaluating our Kenpom rating, net rating or the ur80sfan rating (I’m trademarking that btw). We are 6-7 with no at large chance and trending towards probably being a middling a10 finisher.

I continue to care mostly about seeing our bench development and figuring out if we can trot out any kind of defense that can prevent layup lines.
Click to expand...

I always want a top 4 seed because that is the best way to try to win the tourney. I still have hopes for both.
 
MrTbone said:
I have hopes to be a skinny millionaire. Vegas line is higher on that happening than us winning a10 tourney.
Click to expand...

Come on now. Look at the A-10. Why not? Even last year, we went 9-9 and swept Davidson and VCU. And, we are better this year. With a top 4 seed, we can win 3 in a row.
 
I agree the A10 is going to be weak again with 3 bad teams UR could easily sweep and MUST do so. No way I think VCU and Davidson can but who knows. I just think 4700 even if this Spider squad turns out better in A10 play, I count more teams better than them in the A10 this year. Makes it harder to get a top 4 spot.
 
VT4700 said:
Come on now. Look at the A-10. Why not? Even last year, we went 9-9 and swept Davidson.
Click to expand...
That's because we had better players last year. We are not better this year -- we have a better RECORD because we played a horse slop schedule so far.

It doesn't matter if we get a top 4 seed in the A10. First of all, we won't. Second of all, when has Mooney done anything in the A10 tournament without Kevin Anderson? Literally never.

Also, who do you have us finishing ahead of for a top-4 spot anyway? Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Louis, VCU and Davidson are all top-85 teams. That's five teams, so we would have to pass two of them. We are on the brink of 300. Come on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: wr70beh, SpiderGuy and plydogg
VT4700 said:
Come on now. Look at the A-10. Why not? Even last year, we went 9-9 and swept Davidson and VCU. And, we are better this year. With a top 4 seed, we can win 3 in a row.
Click to expand...

We’ve won one a10 tournament in 13 years of Mooney. We’re not a good team in spite of having a better record this year after non conference play. We still suck at defense and played a terrible non conference schedule and don’t have much depth. It’s very unlikely this is the year this program changes that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: plydogg
VCU,St.Louis, St.Joseph's, Dayton are much better than us this year. Going to finish somewhere in the 6 or 7 seed in A-10. We havent beaten anyone descent this year. Have lost to Hampton and Longwood at home. Dayton will shock us back into reality again....
 
  • Like
Reactions: plydogg
VT4700 said:
Come on now. Look at the A-10. Why not? Even last year, we went 9-9 and swept Davidson and VCU. And, we are better this year. With a top 4 seed, we can win 3 in a row.
Click to expand...
Your opinion is we are better but there’s no empirical evidence of this. We could make the top 4 but it’s unlikely. It’s even more unlikely we’ll win the a10 tournament, we have only won once in our history and have had much better teams than this that didn’t win it.

But it’s fine to remain optimistic. I’ve unfortunately moved to the point where I want no heroics that would cause me to rethink that a coaching change isn’t in our best interest.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MolivaManiac, Eight Legger and plydogg
According to the ESPN+ announcers, Mooney is the second coming of John Wooden. We should win the next 10 national titles.
 
Funny that a lot of the same ones now talking about last year's schedule were the same ones who said it wasn't nearly as hard as the final numbers said. You guys are so predictable. But, fine, keep saying we were sooooo much better out of conference last year when we went 2-10. Do you even realize how funny that sounds?
 
VT4700 said:
Funny that a lot of the same ones now talking about last year's schedule were the same ones who said it wasn't nearly as hard as the final numbers said. You guys are so predictable. But, fine, keep saying we were sooooo much better out of conference last year when we went 2-10. Do you even realize how funny that sounds?
Click to expand...
2-10 last year against a real OOC schedule vs this year's few more wins against a weak & embarrassing OOC schedule including several unbelievably bad losses - ORU, HI, and Longwood.
 
VT4700 said:
Funny that a lot of the same ones now talking about last year's schedule were the same ones who said it wasn't nearly as hard as the final numbers said. You guys are so predictable. But, fine, keep saying we were sooooo much better out of conference last year when we went 2-10. Do you even realize how funny that sounds?
Click to expand...
Can you name them?
 
  • Like
Reactions: plydogg
I only speak for myself but we were terrible last year and we look terrible this year. I mostly take issue with your assertion that we are better this year. There is no evidence that we are better this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: plydogg
Best case, we go 6-12 in conference play and replicate last year's truly pathetic 12 win season. Given our most cupcake OOC scheduling ever and the expected weakness of the A-10 this year, 12 wins would be even worse than it was last year.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: wr70beh
UR80sfan said:
Our team continues to get better. We did better than expected by this forum in 6 of the last 7 games. Our Kenpom ranking has increase to 181, but I think we are closer to 110 today and improving. By season end we will be playing like a top 100 team.

I predict we will start off 3 and 5 in conference play and finish at 10 and 8 if we do not have any major injuries. We should be peaking heading into the A 10 tournament.
Click to expand...
This may be true but it will bring the A-10 s RPI down even further because of our poor OOC showing.
 
11-7 in A-10 play and win the Thursday game in DC, thus making everyone forget how Mooney has run this program into the ground and he gets a 2 year extension.
 
VT4700 talking about scheduling is rich. Remember you were the one who was adamant we didn't intentionally schedule weaker this year. And the OOC schedule was very similar to 2014-15. Can you even concede on those? We had one of the easiest OOC schedules in the country.
 
  • Like
Reactions: keefusb
SpiderDaMan said:
You're just too young.

give up the ghost--

to stop trying to do something because you know that you will not succeed:
Click to expand...

Thanks, but I meant in relation to this board, and how you stated it. Why am I going to have to give up anything? And what exactly should I give up? My opinion on a message board? I am not trying to "succeed" at anything here. I am simply posting my opinion. That right there is the problem with this board, and yes, this board has a problem. Too many people are trying to "succeed" by changing people's opinions. Instead of debating or giving their own opinions, we get insults and angry replies. On a message board? Why?

Every thread is being hijacked by the same people saying the same thing regardless of the thread topic. Even a thread about a new recruit still in high school. That is beyond pathetic. People are digging up old threads trying to show someone's "opinion" might be wrong, as if they are so perfect and have never said anything that maybe turned out differently.

And no, I will never cheer against our players like some of you so called Spider fans are doing. Sorry my optimism and opinions on a message board piss people off, but that is your problem, not mine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BillyWayne, Ulla1 and UR80sfan
47, during the past 7+ seasons, Mooney has been paid more than $9 million. We have made two NITs and zero NCAAs in that time. We are staring at our second consecutive losing season. Do you feel like Mooney has earned his money during this period of time? Is eight years long enough to draw reasonable conclusions about his ability, or are more years required?
 
  • Like
Reactions: SpiderFan26 and SpiderDaMan
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Section 204and5

WBB- A-10 Tournament - March 5-9

Replies
10
Views
684
UR Basketball Board
Section 204and5
Section 204and5
97spiderfan

VCU Observations

Replies
21
Views
2K
UR Basketball Board
Anachnid
Anachnid
SFspidur

2025 NIT changes

Replies
1
Views
564
UR Basketball Board
GKiller
GKiller
Gallipoli

The Future is Bright

Replies
19
Views
3K
UR Basketball Board
CarolinaSpider
C
spiderjpo

CAA Champions

Replies
39
Views
2K
UR Football Board
paward
paward
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back