Opponent Tracker 2022-2023

SFspidur

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SOS ranking of 3...all three losses are currently rated as Q1 games to opponents that are a collective 17–1, so that SOS component is what's pushing them up given how it's weighted in RPI.

You can certainly get some wonky results early, especially for a team like Oral which has played several non-DI teams so only have 4 games factored into their numbers at this point. That's why they wait a month to start publishing official NET (and previously RPI) numbers.
 

SFspidur

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RPI sucks. Should use Kenpom, Sagarin or BPI if you want to get something closer to what the eventual NET rankings will be.
All of those systems still have preseason expectations weighted in their ratings, which is why I used RPI that relies solely on what's actually happened on the court.

Not going to argue that RPI is "accurate" at this point, but it's an early hint at what NET is likely to generally look like when it starts being published, more so than ratings still heavily based on forecasts rather than reality.
 
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fan2011

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All of those systems still have preseason expectations weighted in their ratings, which is why I used RPI that relies solely on what's actually happened on the court.

Not going to argue that RPI is "accurate" at this point, but it's an early hint at what NET is likely to generally look like when it starts being published, more so than ratings still heavily based on forecasts rather than reality.
I will bet you any amount of money our final NET rating will be closer to the current kenpom/sagarin/bpi than it is to the current RPI.
 
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VT4700

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All of those systems still have preseason expectations weighted in their ratings, which is why I used RPI that relies solely on what's actually happened on the court.

Not going to argue that RPI is "accurate" at this point, but it's an early hint at what NET is likely to generally look like when it starts being published, more so than ratings still heavily based on forecasts rather than reality.
It's really not a hint at all. RPI is your winning percentage, your opponents' winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage, and I think it is weighted 25/50/25 for the 3. That is a horrible way to come up with a ranking and nothing like the NET.
 

SFspidur

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I will bet you any amount of money our final NET rating will be closer to the current kenpom/sagarin/bpi than it is to the current RPI.

I would certainly hope so. I'm not saying anything about final ratings...those are months and months away from now.

It's really not a hint at all. RPI is your winning percentage, your opponents' winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage, and I think it is weighted 25/50/25 for the 3. That is a horrible way to come up with a ranking and nothing like the NET.
Of course, we don't even really know how to calculate the NET.

Last year we had a final NET in the mid 80s but an RPI in the mid 40s. At the time the first NET ratings were released on December 6 last year, we were at 98 while our RPI was 127.

So I'm not saying the RPI is going to directly match up with the NET when it comes out, but if we were to calculate NET right now if we knew the formula, I would be surprised if we came out in the top 150.

Plenty of time for that to change of course with probably two more of our games to go before the first NET release (Toledo and W&M) plus many other games that will help add more data to the overall picture, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on RPI over the next week to see how it moves and how it ultimately lines up with the first NET numbers.
 

8legs1dream

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I would certainly hope so. I'm not saying anything about final ratings...those are months and months away from now.


Of course, we don't even really know how to calculate the NET.

Last year we had a final NET in the mid 80s but an RPI in the mid 40s. At the time the first NET ratings were released on December 6 last year, we were at 98 while our RPI was 127.

So I'm not saying the RPI is going to directly match up with the NET when it comes out, but if we were to calculate NET right now if we knew the formula, I would be surprised if we came out in the top 150.

Plenty of time for that to change of course with probably two more of our games to go before the first NET release (Toledo and W&M) plus many other games that will help add more data to the overall picture, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on RPI over the next week to see how it moves and how it ultimately lines up with the first NET numbers.
they are rushing to the defense even when there is nothing to defend
 

urmite

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All of those systems still have preseason expectations weighted in their ratings, which is why I used RPI that relies solely on what's actually happened on the court.

Not going to argue that RPI is "accurate" at this point, but it's an early hint at what NET is likely to generally look like when it starts being published, more so than ratings still heavily based on forecasts rather than reality.
I prefer the Torvik Ranking without preseason.
At least that is what I think changes if you start at 11/06 instead of 11/01

Not sure how he handles SOS.
Kenpom Shows Duquesne with a SOS #333, Fordham #359...last time I checked.
 

urmite

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Current Kenpom vs Torvik rank sorted by difference
TeamKenpomTorvik
du
119​
81​
um
138​
112​
fu
190​
172​
sb
112​
101​
gw
215​
215​
ls
201​
217​
ur
81​
104​
vc
96​
123​
ud
55​
85​
sl
42​
73​
dc
113​
153​
sj
207​
248​
ri
169​
229​
gm
130​
227​
lc
131​
291​

It will be interesting to see which one is closer to NET in a week (maybe two)
 

SFspidur

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Stealing CH's format...

Opponent Tracker 11/29/2022:

Old Dominion vs Charleston - 7:00 FloHoops
UMass vs South Florida - 7:00 ESPN+
UC Santa Barbara vs Duquesne - 7:00 ESPN+
Charlotte vs Davidson - 7:00 ESPN+
VMI vs Presbyterian - 7:00 ESPN+
William & Mary vs NC State - 7:00 ESPN+/ACCNX
Penn State vs Clemson - 7:00 ESPNU
Syracuse vs #16 Illinois - 7:30 ESPN
Missouri vs Wichita State - 8:00 ESPN+
 

SpiderTrap

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Fordham is 6-1. Granted they have played no one and there one loss was by 20+ to a ranked Arkansas team, but they just did beat Harvard, who is usually one of the better Ivy teams. The rest of their OOC schedule is weak as well so it would be interesting and funny if could enter A10 play with just 2-3 losses. I don't expect Fordham to be any good in A10 play, but they are quite the surprise right now.
 
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urmite

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Fordham is 6-1. Granted they have played no one and there one loss was by 20+ to a ranked Arkansas team, but they just did beat Harvard, who is usually one of the better Ivy teams. The rest of their OOC schedule is weak as well so it would be interesting and funny if could enter A10 play with just 2-3 losses. I don't expect Fordham to be any good in A10 play, but they are quite the surprise right now.
I thought Duquesne was the surprise ?

Fordham was 8-10 in the A-10 last year, the dukes were 1-16...
 

SFspidur

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Fordham is doing what they should as a program not projected to be in the at-large mix...schedule appropriately to go 10-3 OOC and then we all play each other with good records. Unfortunately, a lot of other teams including us aren't quite holding up our end of the deal.
 

SpiderTrap

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I thought Duquesne was the surprise ?

Fordham was 8-10 in the A-10 last year, the dukes were 1-16...
Duquesne is similar to Fordham - have not played anyone so they have a 5-1 record. The rest of their OOC schedule is pretty weak as well. They could enter A10 play around 10-3 or 9-4. I just thought Fordham was a surprise cause they seemed to be on right track last year, but I believe lost their coach and some players to portal.

Keep an eye on VCU - their next 2 games will be tough with Vandy and then @ Temple. But if they can get through those 2 games, the rest of the schedule (5 games) is pretty easy. They could be looking at 10-3 entering A10 play as well.

Davidson schedule looks winnable as well. They do have a game with Purdue coming up - so that will be a good barometer of where they are at.
 

Eight Legger

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VCU almost lost to Kennesaw State at home. They can't score and have no point guard for the next month. I think they are staring down a few losses.
 

SpiderTrap

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I agree - VCU did not look good in that game. But looking at their schedule, they are through the hard part in my opinion. They have the following left.

Vandy
@Temple
Jackonsville
Howard
Radford
Northern Illinois
Navy

Only two tough games I see there are Vandy and Temple. And Temple - I was not impressed with much at all.
 

flyder19

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Syracuse Illinois is a big game, need Syracuse to go on a run, as well as Charleston. Make those close losses look a little bit better
 
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Eight Legger

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Syracuse is bad, unfortunately. That loss will just continue to look worse and worse as the season goes on. Charleston is good and will not be an anchor for us but would have been a really nice win.
 

SFspidur

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Yes, Syracuse is bad…Illini blew them out by 29.

Duquesne keeps rolling…


But Davidson lost its rivalry game to Charlotte in a crazy final sequence…

 
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SFspidur

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Overall a mixed bag for our opponents tonight. A-10 went 2–1, but the loss was a painful one for Davidson.

Charleston 75, ODU 60
UMass 73, South Florida 67
Duquesne 72, UCSB 61
Clemson 101, Penn State 94 (2OT) - Clemson was up 7 with 51 seconds to go in regulation but couldn't win it outright there

Charlotte 68, Davidson 66 (OT)
Presby 72, VMI 57
NC State 85 W&M 64
Illinois 73, Syracuse 44 - Girard's scoring output since he dropped 31 on us: 4, 5, and 0...all losses
Missouri 88, Wichita 84 (OT) - Shockers had a 10-point lead with 5:15 to go but couldn't finish to knock Mizzou from the ranks of the undefeated
 

SFspidur

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Busy night for A-10 games with everybody but us and St. Joe's playing at home.

Temple vs La Salle 6:00 ESPN+
MTSU vs Bona 7:00 ESPN+
Hofstra vs Mason 7:00 ESPN+
Western Michigan vs Dayton 7:00 ESPN+
Vanderbilt vs VCU 7:00 CBSSN
Maine vs Fordham 7:30 ESPN+
St. Joe's vs Penn 8:30 ESPN+
Tennessee State vs SLU 9:00 ESPN+
Central Arkansas vs Loyola 9:00 ESPN+
South Carolina vs GW 9:00 CBSSN

St. Francis PA vs Bucknell 7:00 ESPN+
Drake vs Indiana State 7:00 ESPN+
Coppin State vs UMBC 7:00 ESPN+
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Hartford 7:00
Northern Iowa vs Bradley 8:00 ESPN+
 

urmite

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Busy night for A-10 games with everybody but us and St. Joe's playing at home.

Temple vs La Salle 6:00 ESPN+
MTSU vs Bona 7:00 ESPN+
Hofstra vs Mason 7:00 ESPN+
Western Michigan vs Dayton 7:00 ESPN+
Vanderbilt vs VCU 7:00 CBSSN
Maine vs Fordham 7:30 ESPN+
St. Joe's vs Penn 8:30 ESPN+
Tennessee State vs SLU 9:00 ESPN+
Central Arkansas vs Loyola 9:00 ESPN+
South Carolina vs GW 9:00 CBSSN

St. Francis PA vs Bucknell 7:00 ESPN+
Drake vs Indiana State 7:00 ESPN+
Coppin State vs UMBC 7:00 ESPN+
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Hartford 7:00
Northern Iowa vs Bradley 8:00 ESPN+
How "home" are the Philly teams?
 

spiderman

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anyone else been to the Palestra and left unimpressed?
I had heard so much about that historic arena ... thought I'd be awestruck. felt nothing. maybe it's me.
 

Eight Legger

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Never been, but it doesn't look like anything special on TV. I've had the same thought about Madison Square Garden, though I haven't been there either. Guessing those fall under the category of "Really meaningful if you're from there."
 

SFspidur

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Pretty good night for Spider opponents, including Toledo.

In fact, the only other A-10 loss tonight was La Salle, and they lost to one of our other opponents. Not sure how much longer it's worth keeping this thread going though.

Bona 71, MTSU 64
Mason 81, Hofstra 77 (OT)
Dayton 67, Western Michigan 47
VCU 70, Vandy 65
Fordham 72, Maine 67
St. Joe's 85, Penn 80 (OT)
SLU 80, Tennessee State 63
Loyola 85, Central Arkansas 70
GW 79, South Carolina 55
Bucknell 89, St. Francis PA 65

Temple 67, La Salle 51

Indiana State 75, Drake 73 - Some dude named Robbie Avila went for 16 and 8 to lead the Sycamores
UMBC 109, Coppin 82
Hartford 74, FDU 66 - Yes, they lost to a team with one foot already in D-III
Bradley 68, UNI 53
 
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RichmondNative

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Not sure how much longer it's worth keeping this thread going though.

Indiana State 75, Drake 73 - Some dude named Robbie Avila went for 16 and 8 to lead the Sycamores
Thanks for compiling. It is interesting to see how our OOC foes have fared, especially since we haven’t reached conferences play yet, but obviously it doesn’t matter.

Avila- A player that would have been a good fit and like many forwards one that UR couldn’t quite get.
 

SpiderTrap

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Pretty good night for Spider opponents, including Toledo.

In fact, the only other A-10 loss tonight was La Salle, and they lost to one of our other opponents. Not sure how much longer it's worth keeping this thread going though.

Bona 71, MTSU 64
Mason 81, Hofstra 77 (OT)
Dayton 67, Western Michigan 47
VCU 70, Vandy 65
Fordham 72, Maine 67
St. Joe's 85, Penn 80 (OT)
SLU 80, Tennessee State 63
Loyola 85, Central Arkansas 70
GW 79, South Carolina 55
Bucknell 89, St. Francis PA 65

Temple 67, La Salle 51

Indiana State 75, Drake 73 - Some dude named Robbie Avila went for 16 and 8 to lead the Sycamores
UMBC 109, Coppin 82
Hartford 74, FDU 66 - Yes, they lost to a team with one foot already in D-III
Bradley 68, UNI 53
Good night for VCU with a win vs. Vandy. Even if Vandy is no good this year, they will likely end up with a decent number ranking cause of the SEC games. SLU keeps rolling, and Dayton needs to keep going and beat VA Tech in their upcoming games. Dayton is 4-4, but 4 losses are okay - Wisconsin, NC State, BYU, and UNLV. They certainly needed to win 2 of those games for at-large bids, but I still expect Dayton to be a top level A10 team.
 

Eight Legger

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What exactly is the deal with Ace Baldwin? Either he's a liar or he's made out of superhuman fiber. He allegedly tore his Achilles tendon last year, then came back in like half the time literally every other athlete has with that injury, then he broke his wrist and came back in like two weeks?
 

plydogg

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What exactly is the deal with Ace Baldwin? Either he's a liar or he's made out of superhuman fiber. He allegedly tore his Achilles tendon last year, then came back in like half the time literally every other athlete has with that injury, then he broke his wrist and came back in like two weeks?
He must have whatever it is Deadpool has
 
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urmite

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They keep fixing him...

441847ad5855cd22201acd2ebe9c6c8a.jpg
 
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whampas

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What exactly is the deal with Ace Baldwin? Either he's a liar or he's made out of superhuman fiber. He allegedly tore his Achilles tendon last year, then came back in like half the time literally every other athlete has with that injury, then he broke his wrist and came back in like two weeks?
Lottery pick.
 
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SFspidur

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Light slate for Friday night hoops...

UMass vs Harvard 7:00 ESPN+
Wake Forest vs Clemson 7:00 ACCNX
 

brooklyn brownstone

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ACC performed well OOC but has two big time anchors in Louisville and Florida St.. Hopefully they're treated accordingly and not "Oh Louisville is talented, their 3-15 record belies how dangerous they are..." if they win some conference games.
 
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