Offseason Player Analysis - Aidan Noyes

[spider23]

Pros
Has some hops, we saw in his H.S. reels, and in the limited time on the court last season, including the sports center dunk at St. Joes.
Shooting - He looked like a shooter coming out of high school, and in limited action was able to knock down 3's.
I did like his energy on the defensive end.
From the recent article, and interviews in the past, seems to bring a good attitude and expecting to do good things on the court when he gets a chance
Areas of Improvement
Very limited game action so these are more or less areas that are question marks to me at this point:
Lateral quickness - Yes he has some hops, but can he slide and keep guards and quick wings in front of him. And beat his man off the dribble? This is one area that I did not get a real sense, whether he can guard quick guys and if he can create some of his own offense. If he has good lateral quickness we may have our wild card here. And we can use a wild card. If he can move his feet and be a plus defender, I like a 2-3-4 defensively of Dji-Noyes-Bigs that can impact a game.
Strength/weight gain - Sounds like he has put on some weight. But I just don't see the body type to be a guy that can bang inside, but hopefully has a wiry strength to go along with his hops - and can defend and rebound on the interior. I see him as more of a "3" wing type player as his best position. Filling in at the "4" on a more limited basis.
Summary
With the lack of landing an impact forward from h.s. and the portal, a lot rides on Noyes not just getting on the floor and contributing, but contributing in a big way that impacts winning on both ends of the floor. As 97 pointed out, whether we want to bash Mooney or not - if Noyes was that guy it seems like we would have seen him in more last year. Yes we had Burton, but remember this is position less hoops, and as much as I like Bigs, he could not hit an open 3 last year. On the other hand, we had reports that a former player(s?) claimed he was our best NBA prospect, and that was while we had Burton. If he can play like that guy, make 3's, defend and rebound - it really solidifies our front court. Make or break year. I am pulling from him, and I tend to lean to Aidan being that impact player.

 

[VT4700]

Excellent stuff, as always 23. I think the key for him will be creating his own offense. He doesn't need a great handle, but if he gets good minutes, we need him to beat his guy off the dribble at times, and drive to the basket. The athletic ability is there, so if he can give us some of the drives and the and 1s that Tyler gave us, that would be huge.

I am not as worried about him defensively as some of you might be. I just don't think there will be a lot of times where we see him taken down low and dominated by a bigger guy. Like you said, we don't know about lateral quickness, but, unless he is just so bad there that his guy can beat him every single time, I think he could still make a positive impact overall, even if he is just an average defender out there.

The time is now for him. We need him, and I think he will be ready to produce.

 

[Eight Legger]

He has to average double figures if we are going to be anything more than a cellar-dweller.

 

[spiderman]

He has to average double figures if we are going to be anything more than a cellar-dweller.

???
if he's a starter maybe, but we don't even know that yet.

 

[Eight Legger]

Well, if he's not a starter, then where are the points coming from? And if he is a starter but only averaging like 8 points a game, where are the points coming from? I just don't see a reasonable path to being a good team that doesn't involve him playing a major role in it. Unless you think King, Quinn and Roche are all going to average 15 or something. It's possible, but I'm not counting on it.

 

[spiderman]

we pencil in Quinn, Bigelow and King as starters.
Bailey, Hunt or Smith probably earns the start at guard with King.
now you're looking at a battle for the last spot with Roche, Noyes, Harris and Tanner (and possibly Bailey if Hunt or Smith start at guard).
there's a very real chance Noyes doesn't start. and he won't average 10 off the bench.
but we'll somehow score +/- 70 reguardless of who starts.

 

[Eight Legger]

but we'll somehow score +/- 70 reguardless of who starts.

I think you're proving my point... If we only score 70 a game, we're going to be a bad team, unless you expect our defense to get significantly better, which would be a total shot in the dark assumption. Our ppg have decreased each of the past four seasons (from 75.3 to 74.7 to 71 to 68.9). Averaging 70 points a game gets you in the 215 range among D1 teams.

Quinn, Bigelow and Roche combined to average 23.7 points per game for us last year. I think they're each capable of more, but how much? In this system, I'm not going to predict a wild jump for any of them. Maybe they combine to average 35 this year? Hunt scored 11 a game at Wagner, maybe he gives us 8 a game? Bailey has not proven to be a scorer so far, so realistically I'm not expecting a big jump up from 3 ppg for him (but if he gets it, that means he's playing a lot more and some of those other guards aren't, which reduces their ppg output).

I'm also not expecting massive scoring efforts from the freshmen. Would love to be proven wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. And Unless Walz comes in and plays major minutes as a big scorer, I don't see any realistic way we have a good season without Noyes in double figures.

 

[spiderman]

I randomly said +/- 70 because we went 24-13 scoring 71 in 2021-22. I don't see anyone projecting 24-13 this year yet.

our starting SF will have to score. if Noyes starts, yes he'll have to score. and I think he will. if Roche is healthy and he starts in that spot, then he'll have to score. or whoever.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

we pencil in Quinn, Bigelow and King as starters.
Bailey, Hunt or Smith probably earns the start at guard with King.
now you're looking at a battle for the last spot with Roche, Noyes, Harris and Tanner (and possibly Bailey if Hunt or Smith start at guard).
there's a very real chance Noyes doesn't start. and he won't average 10 off the bench.
but we'll somehow score +/- 70 reguardless of who starts.

I sadly say that you may be right about Noyes not starting. Mooney & I almost never agree - I think Noyes should start (so all can deduce for themselves what Mooney is likely to do).

I like Quinn, Bigelow, Noyes, King, & Bailey. That 5 gives you a nice combination of experience, scoring, AND defense. King, Quinn, Noyes, stronger on offense, some defense. Bigelow & Bailey more defense, some offense.

Mix in Roche, Tanner, Harris, and Smith as dictated by match-up and need. As stated previously, I believe that Roche needs to play mostly with other 3-point options. The more scoring options he plays with, the more opportunity Roche will have. If Tanner is a shooter, you could switch him out with Noyes. If Smith is a shooter, play him and Roche together.

 

[VT4700]

I don't think it makes sense to start Dji with both Bigs and Quinn. That greatly limits our outside shooting, and would likely make things tougher on King. We need shooting beside King. As far as true ball handlers are concerned, I think Hunt or Smith likely gives us better shooting, and much more offensive upside, which we have to have out there if Bigs and Quinn get the minutes we want and need them to get. I could definitely see Noyes starting, especially if his 3 ball is there, and he, Roche and Tanner could all provide some quality shooting.

Bur, if Bigs and Quinn start, Noyes, Roche, and Tanner would probably not be on the floor much together, even just 2 of them. If they cannot handle the way you want your guards to handle (maybe they can....just haven't seen them do it much), we would likely need to go with someone else with King. But, there is no doubt we need shooting and scoring from all 3 of them. And, there will be times when we can go small because many other teams do, so then, maybe we could see more of Roche, Tanner, and Noyes together.

 

[8legs1dream]

Well, if he's not a starter, then where are the points coming from? And if he is a starter but only averaging like 8 points a game, where are the points coming from? I just don't see a reasonable path to being a good team that doesn't involve him playing a major role in it. Unless you think King, Quinn and Roche are all going to average 15 or something. It's possible, but I'm not counting on it.

maybe he will get some playing time in his 6th or 7th year