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Next two Games

fan2011

fan2011

Graduate Assistant
Apr 21, 2014
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The next two games are the toughest games remaining in our regular season. I think we need to win one to end up on the right side of the bubble in March.

Kenpom currently gives us ~50% chance to lose both, ~40% chance to win one, and ~10% chance to win both.
 
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I am not as optimistic about the next 2 games as some people on this board, however I think we are going to roll during our last 10 games. Against Dayton, one of the top teams in the country and potentially could go undefeated through their A10 schedule, I give 10% chance of winning. If we do win, it would be one of the biggest upsets in our school history. Dayton has a chance at being a one seed in the NCAA Tournament if they keep winning.

Our record at VCU over the years when VCU has had a top 50 team has been very very bad. It is a difficult place to play when all the fan are yelling VDU, VDU, VDU. Sorry, I was thinking the Robin Center back in the 80s. I meant VCU, VCU, VCU. I give us 35% on winning there, but we will win a few weeks later in the Robin Center.
 
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Dayton's very good, but they're not superhuman. We're very good, too. VCU is not anywhere near the level of Dayton, and I believe not at our level, either. I guess we'll see.
 
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I don't think we beat Dayton - they are just too good, frankly for anyone in the A10. I can see them running the table or only losing 1 game in the A10. Toppin is too good for anyone, but they are very balanced and play well together.
VCU - I could see us beating them 1 out of the 2 times we play them this year.
We go 0-2 this week, it doesn't kill our NCAA hopes, but it puts us on the other side of the bubble for sure.
 
UR80sfan said:
I am not as optimistic about the next 2 games as some people on this board, however I think we are going to roll during our last 10 games. Against Dayton, one of the top teams in the country and potentially could go undefeated through their A10 schedule, I give 10% chance of winning. If we do win, it would be one of the biggest upsets in our school history. Dayton has a chance at being a one seed in the NCAA Tournament if they keep winning.

Our record at VCU over the years when VCU has had a top 50 team has been very very bad. It is a difficult place to play when all the fan are yelling VDU, VDU, VDU. Sorry, I was thinking the Robin Center back in the 80s. I meant VCU, VCU, VCU. I give us 35% on winning there, but we will win a few weeks later in the Robin Center.
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so we'd win 1 out of 10 times on our HOME floor with one of or possibly the best Spiders team in the last 50 years?? Don't be so negative debbie downer. This is a NCAA team. Time to prove it Saturday and then Tuesday as well.
 
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Kansas I believe was ranked 13, which if I recall correctly is lower than UMass (12) was a few years ago when we beat them at the Robins Center. That was probably the worst over-inflation of a ranking I have ever seen. I don't even think UMass made the NCAAs that year, but they had won a bunch of games against terrible teams and just kept rising in the polls.
 
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Dayton only beat 10-8 Indiana State by five points at UD Arena, lost to unranked Colorado and only won at horrific St.Joe's by 13. They're good, but we're not facing the LA Lakers here.
 
spiderman said:
thanks.
how about regular season? was Kansas ranked? Ga Tech?
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Kansas was #12 when we beat them at Phog Allen. They were #1 earlier in the season.
The GT team we beat in the 80s was 6th, I think. The one we beat in '90-'91 was around 12th.
 
ChoppinBroccoli said:
Kansas was #12 when we beat them at Phog Allen. They were #1 earlier in the season.
The GT team we beat in the 80s was 6th, I think. The one we beat in '90-'91 was around 12th.
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That G Tech series was epic
December
1985 Loss to #7
1986 Win over #6
1987 Win over unranked (after getting double up by UGA, my father thought it would be a long season)
1988 Loss to #16
1989 Loss to #21
1990 Win over #14
1991 Loss to #15
Feb 1993 Loss to unranked
 
Eight Legger said:
Dayton only beat 10-8 Indiana State by five points at UD Arena, lost to unranked Colorado and only won at horrific St.Joe's by 13. They're good, but we're not facing the LA Lakers here.
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Indiana State was the first game of the season as Dayton didn't even have their starting five set yet. Chemistry on the court isn't usually established in one game. You gotta find out who and what works well together under game conditions first.

Whether Colorado was ranked or not when UD played them is irrelevant. Is Richmond ranked right now??? Trust and believe Dayton knows and respects the Spiders as a good team. By the way, Colorado had to hit a 3 pointer at the buzzer, in overtime, to beat Dayton. Their starting point guard is a former Dayton commit who de-committed when Archie Miller went to Indiana. So there was some extra motivation there.

As for the game AT St. Joe's, it had been 20 years since Dayton last won a game there. Dayton "only" won by 13 AT St. Joe's in a game where it was tied at halftime and was playing its walk ons by games end. The toughest thing to do in college basketball is win on the road in conference play.

One last thing. Dayton, at 17-2, is one of only two teams left in the country that have yet to lose a game in regulation play. Both of Dayton's losses came in overtime to teams currently ranked in the Top 25. That's not easy to do when you're going to get every opposing team's best shot EVERY game. Our team knows that.

Looking forward to a good game Saturday. No matter the outcome, I wish you guys well the rest of the season and hope you make the tournament. The A10 needs it.
 
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fan2011 said:
The next two games are the toughest games remaining in our regular season. I think we need to win one to end up on the right side of the bubble in March.

Kenpom currently gives us ~50% chance to lose both, ~40% chance to win one, and ~10% chance to win both.
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I think I am right about the same odds as Ken Pom. Meaning we are 5X more likely to lose both than win both.

And then there's this quote from Eight:

"Dayton's very good, but they're not superhuman. We're very good, too. VCU is not anywhere near the level of Dayton, and I believe not at our level, either. I guess we'll see."

I agree with most of that. I agree Dayton is very good, but not Superhuman and that VCU is not at Dayton's level. The biggest question for me in here is about us - - - the team I actually know the most about! I honestly don't know how good we really are or aren't. We are certainly well better than last year, but I just don't know what that really means. Our defense still really scares me against any team that is efficient at taking the ball to the rim and we rebound so badly I have visions of Dayton in particular playing ping pong amongst themselves on our glass. On the other hand, if we don't turn it over and have a night shooting (against probably the best defense we will see all year) we can certainly hang with either of them. In the end though, I see them more likely being able to cause us problems on both turnovers and our shooting than we are likely to have the answers to stop dribble drive or offensive rebounding.

Here is my big new concern: we shot almost 45% from three in our first 5 games (including back to back games where we shot 31-58). We shot 34% over the remainder of the non-conference schedule and we are only shooting 33% so far in A-10 play. If I just take out those two great games (against really bad teams by the way in McNeese and CS_Northridge) we are at 34% for the year.

In these big games, I think we HAVE TO shoot better than 33-34% from 3 to have much chance to win. I question a bit how good a 3 point shooting team we are. We are very efficient overall offensively - - - and consistently good from 2 pt range but I don't like the state of our three point shooting. In the games we lost we shot only 22% from 3. Now that's a little bit of a chicken and egg thing in multiple ways as you may have been jacking up more threes because you were behind and its not especially enlightening to say that if you shoot for shit you are more likely to lose. But here is one that's troubling to me as well: we have shot only 28.8% from three in our Power 5 games. We are 3-2 in these games and I picked these games because these are going to generally represent the kind of teams that are going to give us a lot of trouble on three point shooting - - - taller and more athletic. Our rep is as a really good three point shooting team and I think in any games against genuinely good teams, we are going to need to be good from the 3 point line. Right now, I see us much more of an average 3 point shooting team that struggles a bit against bigger teams. Blake's abscence obviously hurts here too, not just for his actual shooting but his range and the threat that he is etc. opens up the floor for others both at the 3 pt. line and inside it. And its pretty clear that right now, JG's 3 point shot is a bit off as well. I think to win either of these next 2, we are going to need to shoot somewhere close to 40% from three and jusy not sure I see that happening!
 
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After your "classy" post sky miles - will send some "love" your way. Dayton has some of the best fans in the country.....the former sports writer for the Dayton paper who I met at the Robins Center some years ago corresponded back and forth with me about our team. Your fans support your team well...guess the only question left - was the flooding problem in your arena totally fixed? Dayton's ranking is very good for the A-10 - and here's the hope that if we eke out a win - it doesn't fall far..............
 
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SkyMiles said:
As for the game AT St. Joe's, it had been 20 years since Dayton last won a game there. Dayton "only" won by 13 AT St. Joe's in a game where it was tied at halftime and was playing its walk ons by games end. The toughest thing to do in college basketball is win on the road in conference play.
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We're 3-0 on the road in conference play and all of those wins came against teams much better than St. Joe's. We also could have beaten St. Joe's by 45 had we kept our starters in the whole time, and I am sure we would have beaten them by more than 13 even if we played them on the moon. As I said, Dayton is a very good team, but so are we.
 
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spider fan said:
After your "classy" post sky miles - will send some "love" your way. Dayton has some of the best fans in the country.....the former sports writer for the Dayton paper who I met at the Robins Center some years ago corresponded back and forth with me about our team. Your fans support your team well...guess the only question left - was the flooding problem in your arena totally fixed? Dayton's ranking is very good for the A-10 - and here's the hope that if we eke out a win - it doesn't fall far..............
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Does anyone know where to get some day old cheesesteaks?
According to some of the Dayton fans, that has been the Philly Teams secret weapon over the years...
 
Eight Legger said:
We're 3-0 on the road in conference play and all of those wins came against teams much better than St. Joe's. We also could have beaten St. Joe's by 45 had we kept our starters in the whole time, and I am sure we would have beaten them by more than 13 even if we played them on the moon. As I said, Dayton is a very good team, but so are we.
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So, you are viewing your teams play vs. St. Joe's as the main measuring stick between Dayton and Richmond? Really? OK. No problem. Like I said in my previous post, Dayton definitely knows Richmond is a good team. Winning there will not be easy nor is it guaranteed. Hope its a good game Saturday.
 
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SkyMiles said:
So, you are viewing your teams play vs. St. Joe's as the main measuring stick between Dayton and Richmond? Really? OK. No problem. Like I said in my previous post, Dayton definitely knows Richmond is a good team. Winning there will not be easy nor is it guaranteed. Hope its a good game Saturday.
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It's a direct point of reference, that's all. Any A10 team that has any type of trouble with St. Joe's or Lasalle, teams that we obliterated, will make me scratch my head a little because they are god-awful.
 
SkyMiles said:
So, you are viewing your teams play vs. St. Joe's as the main measuring stick between Dayton and Richmond? Really? OK. No problem. Like I said in my previous post, Dayton definitely knows Richmond is a good team. Winning there will not be easy nor is it guaranteed. Hope its a good game Saturday.
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No offense, but I’ll take a terrible game where Richmond wins by 15...
 
Only chance we have is if Grant finds some toughness over the course of the next few days. He's only averaging 3.5 rebounds over our last 4 games. He needs to step it up on defense and be aggressive on the boards.

There are several other things that have to go well also but this is a must.
 
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how many times this week are you guys going to question Grant's toughness? it's ridiculous. he gives 100% every night. sorry he's not Karl freaking Malone. we're lucky to have him and he'll be nearly impossible to replace.
 
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nathanw19 said:
No offense, but I’ll take a terrible game where Richmond wins by 15...
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And I'll take a game where Dayton wins on the road in conference play. I don't care if it's by one point over a bottom feeder. Again, winning on the road in conference play is the toughest thing to do in college basketball. Especially when you have a huge target on your back. Ask any team in America outside of San Diego State.

I am not under any illusions here. We pulled one out of our ass to beat a very good SLU team on the road. A team that Richmond lost to at home, correct? SLU had something to prove, and they desperately wanted that game as a marquee win to put on their resume. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure Richmond feels the same way about the game on Sat.
 
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SkyMiles said:
And I'll take a game where Dayton wins on the road in conference play. I don't care if it's by one point over a bottom feeder. Again, winning on the road in conference play is the toughest thing to do in college basketball. Especially when you have a huge target on your back. Ask any team in America outside of San Diego State.

I am not under illusions here. We pulled one out of our ass to beat a very good SLU team on the road. A team that Richmond lost to at home, correct? SLU had something to prove, and they desperately wanted that game as a marquee win to put on their resume. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure Richmond feels the same way about the game on Sat.
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Most people around here want the game for sure, but don’t feel like it is a make or break game. We have other chances at resume building wins, though yes, Dayton would be a really good win.

We play VCU on Tuesday, and figure we need to go at least 1-1 in these next 2.
 
nathanw19 said:
Most people around here want the game for sure, but don’t feel like it is a make or break game. We have other chances at resume building wins, though yes, Dayton would be a really good win.

We play VCU on Tuesday, and figure we need to go at least 1-1 in these next 2.
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Understood. I just know that when you have a good team like Richmond does, that you know is underrated, and it goes up against a ranked team at home, that game means more than others; especially from a national press perspective. You don't get many opportunities to beat a ranked team on your home floor. And against a conference foe too? That's a double jackpot if you win.

I expect Richmond will be as hostile an environment as SLU was for Dayton, if not more so. I wouldn't have it any other way.
 
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URWilk110 said:
Only chance we have is if Grant finds some toughness over the course of the next few days. He's only averaging 3.5 rebounds over our last 4 games. He needs to step it up on defense and be aggressive on the boards.

There are several other things that have to go well also but this is a must.
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When you say Grant, are you talking about the guy who has shot 16 for 19 over the past 2 game and scored 40 points in 44 minutes, with 7 rebounds and 3 block shots? Who is on track to be one of the top all-time scorers in U of R history. Is that the guy you are talking about or is there another guy on the team named Grant?

Our 5 starters are awesome and don't need to be put down by people like you.
 
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spider fan said:
After your "classy" post sky miles - will send some "love" your way. Dayton has some of the best fans in the country.....the former sports writer for the Dayton paper who I met at the Robins Center some years ago corresponded back and forth with me about our team. Your fans support your team well...guess the only question left - was the flooding problem in your arena totally fixed? Dayton's ranking is very good for the A-10 - and here's the hope that if we eke out a win - it doesn't fall far..............
Click to expand...
Yes the water problem is fixed seventy five million facelift state of the art a show place.
 
GKiller said:
One might say u r putting down the players when u give them just a 10% chance to beat Dayton at home.
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I didn't read it as putting him down. I read it as he needs to step up defensively and show some toughness against Dayton. Gets my vote.
 
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Eight Legger said:
It's a direct point of reference, that's all. Any A10 team that has any type of trouble with St. Joe's or Lasalle, teams that we obliterated, will make me scratch my head a little because they are god-awful.
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8 - Had both teams above in Robins and yes neither game was competitive. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw "a different team" the next time we play, especially LaSalle. Even though LaSalle was down big most of the game, it sure looked like they were gaining confidence late in the game. Something tells me adjustments will be made.
 
UR80sfan said:
When you say Grant, are you talking about the guy who has shot 16 for 19 over the past 2 game and scored 40 points in 44 minutes, with 7 rebounds and 3 block shots? Who is on track to be one of the top all-time scorers in U of R history. Is that the guy you are talking about or is there another guy on the team named Grant?

Our 5 starters are awesome and don't need to be put down by people like you.
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Every time I read a post like this I have to tell myself that "fan" is short for fanatic.

Like reading many of your posts 80s and appreciate the positive vibes, but what is being said here is that Grant needs to step it up on defense. 7 boards over 2 games is EXACTLY what was pointed to as not being enough.

Some of the best news over the last 2 games is that Grant has reappeared on offense. However, GMU and LaSalle are not ranked in the top 10 in the country and the Spiders are going to need his latest performance AND more to win on Saturday. As simple as that. No putdown.
 
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whampas said:
I didn't read it as putting him down. I read it as he needs to step up defensively and show some toughness against Dayton. Gets my vote.
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Agreed. The 10% comment was much worse if he checked himself. We have exceptional defenders now in burton goose & Gilyard. Cayo & Francis r solid. I like Grant and he’s very good offensively but he needs to try & protect the rim more. That stat about having 19 fouls all year prior to lasalle was a pretty eye opening.
 
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UR80sfan said:
When you say Grant, are you talking about the guy who has shot 16 for 19 over the past 2 game and scored 40 points in 44 minutes, with 7 rebounds and 3 block shots? Who is on track to be one of the top all-time scorers in U of R history. Is that the guy you are talking about or is there another guy on the team named Grant?

Our 5 starters are awesome and don't need to be put down by people like you.
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All you are talking about is offense. What about on the other side of the ball? When people call Mooney soft, it's because of an overall lack of team toughness. Shooting the ball is nice, but that's the only message we send. VCU has a reputation of a tough team. We don't. It's not just Grant, its everyone, and that's on Mooney.
 
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