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Next 5 games

SpiderTrap

Graduate Assistant
Nov 6, 2007
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First off - the team is off to a great start. Clearly something I think no one on this board envisioned. I was hoping that maybe by the end of A10 play, we would start to see some of the play we have seen the last few games, but the frosh have stepped up nicely, and overall - we are shooting the ball really well - which will carry this team in the long run.

I would not say our first 5 games of the season was our "easy" portion of the A10 schedule, but it certainly was not the hardest. Fordham and GW are at the bottom, St. Joes lost their best player to injury - and we beat Davidson and Bonnies, who are probably right in the middle of the pack with us.

The next 5 games will be very telling.
@ Dayton
Mason
URI
Duquesne
@VCU

At Dayton is always tough. An aside from the weird loss to UMASS, they are looking very good. Mason was a surprise OOC, but has come back to earth in A10 play. But they always play us tough, and hey have a full week to prepare for us. URI is struggling right now, but they are very talented, and still a top 4 team in the league. Duquesne - should be a win, but little bit of trap game as the team gets ready for VCU. And VCU - it will be interesting to see what the two records are going into this game as it could be a game for first place in the league.
 
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If we want a bye in the A-10 tourney, we can do no worse than 3-2 in this stretch. Preferably with at least two of those wins coming from the Dayton-URI-VCU group, against whom we'll want as many tiebreaker advantages as we can have.
 
The two road games are very tough tasks. And they will be for everyone in the A-10 (dayton's mystery loss notwithstanding). 3 road wins already really helps. Holding serve with the home games is crucial. 3-2 would be good work for this stretch, but very achievable. Anything less will be a little disappointing, but 2-3 isn't a total disaster depending on how it comes down. Right now, we just need to keep playing well and keep momentum and energy as we slowly improve. Nothing short of like 17-1 in conference gets us in the at-large mix, so it its all about keeping momentum for a possible run in the A-10 tourney.
 
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I look at the conference schedule as 3 groups of 6.
And these appear to be the predictions currently (negative=underdog)

a ud (11)

h gm 6
h ri (1)
h du 11
a vc (9)
h gw 8
a ls (6)

a gm (2)
h vc (2)
h dc 2
a fu 3
a um (4)
h sl 16
 
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Looking at Dayton's numbers, it appears they get a lot of steals on D and a lot of opponent fouls on O.
 
Broad Street is a very tough venue but Jequan Lewis is their best player, which is very different than playing a team with Graham/Weber or some of the other stud players they have had in the past.
 
Watched UMass and RIU yesterday and Holloway for UMass is a load but tires easy. RIU is very explosive and rebounds well.
Then watched GW and LaSalle. GW is not a great passing team or a lot of good defenders while LaSalle may have won but
were not that impressive to me. They just hit open shots when given an opportunity. This conference is a crazy one to bet on
for anyone can beat anyone without question, just like the ACC this year. There may be more parity in this league then in the past.
 
I feel like we always scheme well for UMass, possibly because Kellogg is a garbage coach, and VCU. We've played some good games against Rhody for the same reasons (Hurley sucks) but they have had better athletes, which tilted the scales just enough. This year, that's not really the case.

Dayton is a challenge because they are good AND very well-coached.

On the flip side, Dr. G has somehow done a good job scheming for us in the past, so that game being on the road concerns me. Mason...well, I don't need to say anything else. We just need to find a way to beat them for a change.
 
Broad Street is keeping the same theme - bull your way into the paint making lots of contact and be rewarded with fouls called on your opponent. Davidson stopped that with their big men holding their ground. Think Dayton is the class of the conference and will be a tough game for us.
 
I look at the conference schedule as 3 groups of 6.
And these appear to be the predictions currently (negative=underdog)

a ud (11)

h gm 6
h ri (1)
h du 11
a vc (9)
h gw 8
a ls (6)

a gm (2)
h vc (2)
h dc 2
a fu 3
a um (4)
h sl 16
As we win the predictions keep changing. I think we have won three games in conference we were predicted to lose. I hope the team is keeping at large possibilities a reality. I think Buck is a player who refuses to lose, and that has carried over to the rest of the team. Until they lose, I believe they can win them all. Beat Dayton away and I think all predictions are turned upside down.
 
In Vegas the over/under for this 5 game stretch would be 2.5 wins. I think 3 wins would be really good, 2 wins is still ok if we want to get that double bye for the A10 tournament. I think 12-6 gets us the 4 seed, so from here on out if we can defend the home court and win the rest of our home games we will be at least 12-6. If we go 13-5 we are virtually guaranteed a top 4 finish.
 
One thing to note is that the last number of games we won gone we've essentially gone on huge runs during the game to put up a big lead and then held on. Will be interesting to see how we do in a tight close game throughout if we can sustain ourselves without lapses for periods of time.
 
Typically, teams that when close games early in the season develop a mental toughness that serves them well late in the season.
 
Typically, teams that when close games early in the season develop a mental toughness that serves them well late in the season.
I agree, they tend not to panic (been there done that). I will feel better as our FT shooting improves.
 
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3-2 and have RI as a W. Of course early on in conference play but like to get tie breaker over RI like UR has with Bonny. Rest of teams behind these two have 3 losses already.
 
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